1.Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia – a study from selected municipalities (Pripremljenost domaćinstva za zemljotrese u Srbiji – studija slučaja izabranih lokalnih zajednica)
This article presents the results of a qualitative study of household earthquake and community-level preparedness in Serbia and its relationship to various demographic factors. A series of 1,018 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in eight Serbian municipalities. The results show that the population is generally unprepared, with low percentages of reported enhanced preparedness levels. In addition to presenting its findings, the study also considers future research directions, including using this study as a basis for more detailed research and to assist in facilitating community-led programs and strategies to increase earthquake safety. KEYWORDS: geography, natural hazards, earthquake, preparedness, household, survey, Serbia Pripravljenost gospodinjstev na potrese v Srbiji: Študija izbranih občin IZVLEČEK: V članku so predstavljeni rezultati kvalitativne študije pripravljenosti na potres v gospodinjstvih in na občinski ravni v Srbiji in njeni povezanosti različnimi demografskimi dejavniki. Članek temelji na 1018 intervjujih, ki so bili izvedeni na začetku leta 2017 v osmih srbskih občinah. Rezultati kažejo, da je prebivalstvo na splošno nepripravljeno, z nizkim deležem izboljšane ravni pripravljenosti. Poleg lastnih ugotovitev študija obravnava tudi prihodnje smeri raziskovanja, vključno z uporabo te študije kot temelja za podrobnejše raziskave in za pomoč pri programih, ki jih vodijo skupnosti, ter strategij za povečanje potresne varnosti. KLJUČNE BESEDE: geografija, naravne nesreče, potres, pripravljenost, gospodinjstvo, raziskovanje, Srbija
2. Young adults’ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia (Strahovi mladih od katastrofa: studija slučaja stanovnika u Turskoj, Srbiji i Makedoniji)
This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level and the causes of fear of disasters among young adults in Turkey, Serbia, and Macedonia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected hand by hand that explored in depth the disaster-related fears among 537 respondents during 2016. The questionnaire explored students’ basic demographics and their level of fear, as well as the causes and sources of fear. Across the three countries, the results indicated an excessive level of fear both of earthquakes and of epidemics. In addition, participants reported that they were particularly afraid for their personal lives and, to a greater extent, for the health of their parents. Experiences with bad weather conditions, pictures of the consequences of disasters, and past disaster experience were found to exacerbate fear. It was also found that females were more afraid, with a possible socio-cultural-laden link to an ethos of protection versus participation. Findings can be used to create focused strategies at a national level intended to reduce excess fear of disasters and facilitate a more prepared public through policy and education programme development.
3. The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia (Rodna perspektiva pripremljenosti i reagovanja na poplavne rizike u Srbiji)
Adverse outcomes from 2014 flooding in Serbia indicated problematic response phase management accentuated by a gender imbalance. For this reason, we investigated the risk perceptions and preparedness of women and men regarding these types of events in Serbia. Face-to-face interviews, administered to 2500 participants, were conducted across 19 of 191 municipalities. In light of the current findings, men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, perceiving greater individual and household preparedness. By contrast, women displayed a deeper understanding of these events. Perhaps owing to a deeper level of understanding, women demonstrated more household-caring attitudes and behaviors and were more prone to report a willingness to help flood victims at reception centers. Emergency management agencies and land planners should account for these differences in gender awareness and preparedness. Based on these findings, doing so may increase citizen participation and shared responsibility under flood hazard scenarios.
4. Public Risk Perspectives Regarding the Threat of Terrorism in Belgrade: Implications for Risk Management Decision-Making for Individuals, Communities and Public Authorities (Percepcija javnosti o terorističkim pretnjama u Beogradu: Implikacije na donošenje odluka o upravljanju rizicima u odnosu na pojedince, zajednicu i institucije)
The aim of this paper is to assess the risk of terrorist attacks as perceived by individuals, the local community as a whole, and municipal public safety officials in Belgrade, the capital of the Republic of Serbia. The structured questionnaire about perceived risk of terrorist attacks and preparedness was developed using close-ended, multiple choice questions and questionnaire items featuring 5-point Likert response options. Data were collected between June and September 2017 by a telephone survey using a random digit dialing procedure; 485 adult Serbian residents participated in the research voluntarily. Study participants exhibited low levels of perception vis-a-vis the future likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring in their communities, and only a moderate knowledge of counter-terrorism activities currently being undertaken by public safety authorities. Other responses to our questionnaire indicated statistically significant differences in perception of the risks of terrorism threats in Belgrade with respect to demographic variables such as age, gender, employment and past exposure to major emergencies. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced counter-terrorism preparedness measures through the promotion of behavioural change. Such action goes hand-in-hand with the adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. Furthermore, to improve risk management decision-making we need to anticipate virtually all possible scenarios because terrorism is now a clear and present danger to the safety of the citizens of Serbia. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have up-to-date disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations as opposed to only preconceived generalized plans. Keywords: terrorism, risk perception, threat, preparedness, decision-making, Belgrade
5. Citizens Attitudes about the Emergency Situations Caused by Epidemics in Serbia (Stavovi građana o vanrednim situacijama izazvanim epidemijama u Srbiji)
Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. 2500 people from the area of 19 out of the total number of 190 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multistage sampling (personal interview). Survey results show that only 43.1% of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves from epidemics. The mean value of citizens’ preparedness to respond is 2.98 out of 5 and 28.2% of respondents are absolutely unprepared to respond. The results show that in higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women compared to men; respondents with university degrees compared to those who have completed primary school; respondents who have completed high school with honors compared to respondents who have completed high school with good grades, etc. Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The research results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond to emergencies caused by epidemics.
6. Knowledge and Perception of Secondary School Students in Belgrade about Earthquakes as Natural Disasters (Znanje i percepcija učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o zemljotresima kao prirodnim katastrofama)
The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process.
7.First aid disaster kit for a family: A case study of Serbia
8.Edukacija građana o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem multimedijalnih sadržaja – društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice i simulacije – Citizens’ education about disaster risk reduction using multimedia content – social games, computer games and simulations
9.Percepcija rizika o vanrednim situacijama – Disaster risk perception
10. Značaj i uloga privatnih vojnih kompanija u rešavanju savremenih problema nacionalne i međunarodne bezbednosti
11. Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade – Percepcija rizika o požarima stambenih objekata u Beogradu
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management Publisher: Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management.
12.Zbirka propisa iz oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa – Collection of regulations in the area of disaster risk management
Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa predstavlja sistematski i multi-sektorski pristup čije korišćenje omogućava sprečavanje novih i smanjenje postojećih rizika. Jačanje državnih mehanizama smanjenja rizika od katastrofa je nezamislivo bez donošenja i usvajanja većeg broja strateških, zakonskih i podzakonskih propisa koji direktno ili indirektno uređuju spomenutu oblast. Potreba za usredsređenim delovanjem država na planu smanjenja rizika od katastrofa, prema Sendai okviru za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa, zahteva razumevanje rizika od katastrofa; jačanje sistema upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u cilju upravljanja rizicima; ulaganje u smanjenje rizika od katastrofa u cilju jačanja otpornosti; unapređenje spremnosti za delotvorno reagovanje u slučaju katastrofa i izgradnja boljeg sistema od onog pre katastrofe u toku obnove, sanacije i rekonstrukcije. Rukovodioci i pripadnici subjekata i snaga sistema zaštite i spasavanja u Republici Srbiji imaju obavezu da poznaju i primenjuju propise koji se direktno/indirektno odnose na oblast katastrofa u cilju realizacije pravovremenih, stručnih i zakonski utemeljenih aktivnosti sprovođenja pripreme, ublažavanja, odgovora i oporavka od posledica katastrofa. Rukovodeći se time, u izdanju Naučno-stručnog društva za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama odštampana je prva sveobuhvatna ,,Zbirka propisa iz oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa“ u Republici Srbiji. Polazeći od višegodišnjeg iskustva autora u naučno-istraživačkom radu, nakon detaljnih analiza odabrani su svi postojeći i relevantni strateški, zakonski i podzakonski propisi na osnovu kojih se zasniva sistem zaštite i spasavanja ljudi i njihove imovine za vreme katastrofa na području Republike Srbije. Pored nacionalnih zakonskih i podzakonih rešenja, zbirka propisa sadrži i najznačajnije međunarodne akte koji uređuju oblast upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Zbirka propisa namenjena je za polaganje stručnog ispita iz oblasti procene rizika predviđenog Pravilnikom o programu, načinu i troškovima polaganja stručnog ispita, postupku izdavanja i izgledu licence za procenu rizika. Pored toga, namenjena je i za polaganje stručnog ispita zaštite od požara predviđenog Pravilnikom o posebnoj obuci i polaganju stručnog ispita iz oblasti zaštite od požara. Takođe, namenjena je i svim pripadnicima interventno-spasilačkih službi (sektor za vanredne situacije, policija, vojska, služba hitne medicinske pomoći, gorska služba za spasavanje, jedinice civilne zaštite opšte i posebne namene, dobrovoljna vatrogasna društva) koji se u svom radu susreću sa reagovanjem u uslovima katastrofa, ali i zaposlenima u organima državne uprave, autonomne pokrajine i jedinica lokalne samouprave na poslovima koji se odnose na upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa. I na kraju, zbirka je namenjena istraživačima iz oblasti studija katastrofa, kao i studentima Univerziteta u Beogradu, Fakulteta bezbednosti, Kriminalističko-policijskog univerziteta, Geografskog fakulteta i drugih srodnih institucija.
13. Upravljanje rizicima i sistemi zaštite i spasavanja od katastrofa: Praktikum – Risk management аnd systems оf protection аnd rescue аgainst disasters: Practicum
Praktikum ,,Upravljanje rizicima i sistemi zaštite i spasavanja od katastrofa“ je namenjen studentima osnovnih i master akademskih studija Fakulteta bezbednosti Univerziteta u Beogradu, Kriminalističko-policijskog univerziteta i drugih fakulteta radi njihovog uvođenja u nastavno-naučnu disciplinu iz oblasti studija katastrofa. Praktikum je napisan na osnovu višegodišnjeg iskustva koje autor ima u radu sa studentima spomenutih fakulteta. Namenjen je realizaciji teorijskih i praktičnih vežbi studenata sa ciljem olakšavanja procesa učenja gradiva iz oblasti upravljanja rizicima i sistema zaštite i spasavanja od katastrofa. Polazeći od multidisciplinarnosti predmeta proučavanja, praktikum se sastoji od brojnih teorijskih vežbi koje usmeravaju studente na najbitnije segmente gradiva motivišući ih da se uključe u realizaciju časova na predviđenim vežbama. Praktikum obuhvata sledeće nastavne teme: I – Katastrofe i opasnosti: teorije, koncepti i metode; II – Ugroženost, otpornost i metode istraživanja katastrofa; III – Rizik od katastrofa: metodologija procene i planovi zaštite i spasavanja; IV – Nacionalni i međunarodni pravni okvir smanjenja rizika od katastrofa; V – Pripremljenost i ublažavanje rizika od katastrofa; VI – Sistem zaštite i spasavanja od katastrofa: odgovor i oporavak; VII – Informacioni sistemi podrške upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa i međunarodna saradnja. Svaki deo se sastoji od nekoliko vežbi u okviru kojih je studentima na samom početku dato uvodno razmatranje, zatim zadaci za vežbe, pitanja za diskusiju i preporučena literatura. Prilikom pisanja praktikuma obuhvaćena je najnovija literatura iz oblasti studija katastrofa. Autor iskazuje posebnu zahvalnost recenzentima prof. dr Vladimiru Jakovljeviću, prof. dr Slavoljubu Dragićeviću i prof. dr Draganu Mlađanu koji su svojim stručnim sugestijama u velikoj meri unapredili praktikum. Posebnu zahvalnost autor duguje uredniku prof. dr Bobanu Milojkoviću za višegodišnju podršku i usmeravanje ka unapređivanju nastavno-naučne discipline iz oblasti studija katastrofa.
14. Privatne vojne kompanije u modernom dobu
Velike sile su oduvek koristile usluge privatnih vojnih kompanija za potrebe ostvarivanja svojih vojnih i nevojnih ciljeva. Iako je to često bilo sakriveno od očiju javnosti, završetkom hladnog rata stvoreni su višestruki preduslovi za ubrzanije razvijanje privatnog sektora bezbednosti, a u okviru njega i privatnih vojnih kompanija. Smanjenje vojnih budžeta, kao i druge poteškoće u angažovanjima regularnih vojnih jedinica doprineli su značajnom ulasku privatnih vojnih kompanija na svetsku scenu kroz njihova mnogobrojna angažovanja od strane državnog sektora bezbednosti. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu na jedan vrlo sistematičan način analiziraju razvoj različitih karakteristika privatnih vojnih kompanija sa posebnim osvrtom na vrste i tipove usluga koje one pružaju. Pored toga, sagledavaju se konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih tržišta, ali i karakteristike privatnih vojnika i plaćenika.
15. Upravljanje rizicima u oblasti nuklearne bezbednosti – Risk management in the field of nuclear security
16. Percepcija rizika o zemljotresima u Srbiji: teorijsko-empirijska studija – Earthquake risk perception in Serbia: theoretical-empirical study
Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje nivoa percepcije rizika od zemljotresa i njegove povezanosti sa demografskim, društvenim i psihološkim faktorima. Primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima sprovedeno je anketno ispitivanje u kojem je anketirano 1.018 građana tehnikom ličnog intervjua. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na percepciju verovatnoće nastanka zemljotresa statististički značajno utiču godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja, bračni status, vlasništvo nad objektom, prihodi domaćinstva i zaposlenost. U cilju unapređenja bezbednosti građana Srbije, neophodno je osmisliti strategije i kampanje za unapređenje pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim zemljotresom.
17. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) – Call for papers
International Journal of Disaster Risk Management is a peer-reviewed (twice a year) journal (publisher is Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management – http://upravljanje-rizicima.com/en_us/) serves all aspects of disaster studies, policy, and management. It provides a platform for academics, policymakers and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies and crises around the world. The journal crosses and affects interdisciplinary boundaries to promote communication, collaboration and teamwork between professions and disciplines to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. The journal encourages to the interchange of ideas and experience, to decrease the risk of disasters and build community resilience within the context of sustainable development and planetary boundaries. Authors are kindly invited to submit their formatted full papers. All paper submissions will be blind peer reviewed and evaluated based on originality, Research content, correctness, relevance to conference and readability. Please read complete submission and formatting guidelines before submitting your paper. No publication Fee. You can submit your paper through following – disaster.risk.management.serbia@gmail.com.
As of recently, the role of social networks in the disaster risk management process has become significantly important. This is largely due to a huge number of smartphones with installed applications (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) that allow their users to share information in the form of text, images and video. By analyzing and describing the multiple possibilities and significance of social networks in various stages of disaster risk management (before, during and after), the authors conducted a research of quantitative research tradition with the aim of examining the attitudes of the students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies and the Faculty of Security Studies University of Belgrade in terms of possibilities, reliability and motivation for the use of social networks in such situations. The results obtained in the research show a high degree of motivation of respondents for the use of social networks in situations immediately before, but also during and after the manifested consequences of disasters. Emphasizing the undeniable advantages of using the social networks in disaster risk management, as well as the results of the research, decision-makers could create certain programs to improve citizen security and reduce disaster risks by using information platforms of the social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram…………
Uloga društvenih mreža u procesu upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa je poslednjih godina izuzetno dobila na značaju. Tome je posebno doprineo veliki broj pametnih telefona sa instaliranim aplikacijama (facebook, twiter, instragram) koje omogućavaju svojim korisnicima da podele informacije u vidu teksta, slika i video zapisa. Analizirajući i opisujući višestruke mogućnosti i značaj društvenih mreža u različitim fazama upravljanja rizicima (pre, za vreme i nakon) od katastrofa, autori su sproveli istraživanje kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije sa ciljem ispitivanja stavova studenata Fakulteta bezbednosti i Kriminalističko-policijske akademije u pogledu mogućnosti, značaja, pouzdanosti i motivisanosti za korišćenjem društvenih mreža u takvim situacijama. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju visok stepen motivisanosti ispitanika za korišćenjem društvenih mreža u situacijama neposredno pre, ali i za vreme i nakon manifestovanih posledica katastrofa. Naglašavajući neosporne prednosti korišćenja društvenih mreža prilikom upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa, kao i iznete rezultate istraživanja, donosioci odluka bi mogli kreirati određene programe unapređenja bezbednosti građana i smanjenja rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem informacionih platformi društvenih mreža kao što su fejsbuk, tviter, instagram i slično. Ključne reči: katastrofe, društvene mreže, fejsbuk, twiter, instagram, stavovi.
19. Danube River Region Resilience Exchange Network
DAREnet is a network of practitioners dealing with flood resilience in the Danube River Region, supported by a continuously evolving multi-disciplinary community of stakeholders consisting of policy makers, academics, industry and many more. The DAREnet project will enable Flood Management Practitioners in the Danube River Region – to connect and exchange with national and European stakeholders in a truly collaborative environment; – to identify and analyse by and for themselves relevant innovation gaps; – to translate the gaps into a joint innovation strategy to improve flood resilience in the future. DAREnet is setting up a multi-disciplinary community of flood practitioners, complemented by policy makers, researchers and industry. Get connected to local and international stakeholders coping with floods, and benefit from large spectrum of experiences, know-how and technologies the most relevant and effective solutions for practitioners. The DAREnet consortium forms the backbone of the transnational, multi-disciplinary network. It brings together a unique combination of renowned institutions and players in flood mitigation and civil protection. This consortium provides a broad and complementary coverage of the needed capabilities, the geographic balance, and strategic motivation to succeed. A long history of previous collaboration providing the basis for an effective execution of DAREnet and beyond.
20. Percepcija javnosti o pripremljenosti za biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama: implikacije na proces upravljanja rizicima
Biosferske katastrofe među kojima su na prvom mestu epidemije, predstavljaju ozbiljnu pretnju bezbednosti ljudi. Polazeći od ozbiljnosti i karakteristika katastrofa izazvanih epidemijama, predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje prirode uticaja ličnih i društvenih faktora na percepciju javnosti o pripremljenosti za reagovanje na biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama. Korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je da je nivo pripremljenosti građana nizak i da su u većoj meri pripremljeni muškarci, obrazovaniji građani, nezaposleni i oni koji osećaju strah. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za kreiranje edukativnih kampanja usmerenih ka podizanju nivoa svesti i pripremljenosti građana. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, percepcija, epidemije, pripremljenost, upravljanje rizicima, Srbija. —– Biospheric disasters, among them the first place of the epidemic, pose a serious threat to human security. Starting from the seriousness and characteristic of disasters caused by epidemics, the subject of research is the examination of the nature of the impact of personal and social factors on the perception of the public on the preparedness to respond to biospheric disasters caused by epidemics. Two thousand and five hundred citizens from the area of nineteen local communities were interviewed using multi-pass random sampling. According to the obtained results, it was determined that the level of preparedness of the citizens is at a low level and that they are more prepared men, more educated citizens, the unemployed and those who feel fear. The results of the research can be used to create educational campaigns aimed at raising the level of awareness and preparation of citizens. Keywords: natural disasters, perception, epidemics,preparedness, risk management, Serbia.
21. Teorijski okvir istraživanja u oblasti katastrofa – Theoretical framework of research in the field of disasters
Polazeći od negativnog uticaja katastrofa na društvene sisteme u poslednjoj deceniji višestruko je povećan broj naučnih istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa. Pri tome, interdisciplinarnost sprovođenja istraživanja uslovljava primenu teorijskih okvira različitih naučnih disciplina kao što su sociologija, psihologija, geografija itd. Pregledom literature iz oblasti katastrofa, utvrđeno je da istraživači koriste raznovrsne teorijske okvire, kao što su teorija racionalnog izbora, ugroženosti, otpornosti, planiranog ponašanja, simboličkog interakcionizma, pripremljenosti, odlučivanja, sistema, motivaciona zaštitna teorija itd. Polazeći od postojanja većeg broja relevantnih teorijskih okvira za realizaciju istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa, autori u radu najpre identifikuju i sistematizuju, a zatim analiziraju i opisuju teorijske okvire i mogućnosti njihove primene u konkretnim istraživanjima iz oblasti katastrofa. ——–Starting from the negative impact of disasters on social systems, over the last decade, the number of scientific disaster research has been multiplied. Thereby, the interdisciplinary nature of the research implies the application of theoretical frameworks of various scientific disciplines such as sociology, psychology, geography, etc. A review of literature on disasters showed that researchers use a variety of theoretical frameworks, such as the theory of rational choice, vulnerability, resistance, planned behavior, symbolic interactionism, preparedness, decision-making, systems, motivational protection theory, etc. Starting from the existence of a number of relevant theoretical frameworks for research on disasters, the authors first identify and systematize, and then analyze and describe the theoretical frameworks and the possibilities of their application in concrete studies on disasters.
22. Citizens Attitudes about the Emergency Situations Caused by Epidemics in Serbia
Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. 2500 people from the area of 19 out of the total number of 190 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multistage sampling (personal interview). Survey results show that only 43.1% of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves from epidemics. The mean value of citizens’ preparedness to respond is 2.98 out of 5 and 28.2% of respondents are absolutely unprepared to respond. The results show that in higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women compared to men; respondents with university degrees compared to those who have completed primary school; respondents who have completed high school with honors compared to respondents who have completed high school with good grades, etc. Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The research results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond to emergencies caused by epidemics.
23. Problems of inhabitants of Muktagacha Town in Mymensingh District in terms of urban services important for security in natural disasters
The term urbanization normally connotes a trend in increasing proportion of the national population living in urban centers (towns & cities), as well as an increase in the number of urban centers over a period of time. Thus, it means population shift from rural to urban areas and the ways in which a society adapts to the change. It generally results in the physical growth of urban areas. It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world would be urbanized. An urban area can refer to towns, cities, and suburbs. An urban area includes the city itself, as well as the surrounding areas. Many urban areas are called metropolitan areas. In short, it is a geographical area constituting a city or town, where various urban services like electricity, gas, water supply, health facilities are available. Urban services are necessary transition in provision of facilities provided by urban areas. Generally, it is the responsibility of each country to provide urban facilities to its inhabitants. This study focuses on urban services that people of Muktagachha town in Mymensingh District have enjoyed and the major problems they face while getting urban services, as well. Since Muktagachha town is very close to Mymensingh Sadar the trend of urbanization is increasing here. In fact, it is a well – developed upazila of Mymensingh District. The supply of urban services in this upazillais continuously increasing and the quality of these services tries to increase as stated by the upazilla mayor. However, inhabitants still face various problems in getting urban services. This research is going to discuss what types of problems the inhabitants face and what steps can be taken by the pouro authority to improve the quality of urban services.
24. Childrens and youths’ knowledge on forest fires: Discrepancies between basic perceptions and reality – Znanje dece i mladih o šumskim požarima: neusklađenost između osnovne percepcije i stvarnosti
Forests have a vital role for all living things. Children’s understanding of forest phenomena is important knowledge for various sectors as educators, policy makers, environmentalist, etc. In this study, factors that affect knowledge and perception of forest fires of students, aged 10 to 19, in the city of Belgrade were examined. The research was conducted between October 20, 2013, and February 03, 2014. The authors used a method of surveying students in order to identify and describe the factors affecting their knowledge about forest fires. A total of 3,548 students from 18 schools in Belgrade participated in the survey. The results of the research showed that there is a discrepancy between perceptions and reality, what students think they know and what they actually know, and in very basic terms. This set of findings in combination with other findings on moderators replicates previous research on the need for educational programs to ensure there is a match between youth’s confidence about what they know about hazards and their actual knowledge levels. Mismatches between the two could well have serious consequences in disaster risk reduction terms. Given basic knowledge gaps here, this translates into educational programming that then needs to take account for this basic discrepancy to ensure, even from early ages, consistency between “knowledge and coping confidence” and actual knowledge and ability to cope and respond.
25. Baze podataka o rizicima i informacioni servisi podrške odlučivanju u vanrednim situacijama – Risk database and management support information services for emergencies
Природне и антропогене ванредне ситуације представљају најозбиљнији сценарио угрожавања безбедности који условљава употребу најсавременијих информационих сервиса као и коришћење свих расположивих база података о ризицима. У том смислу, управљање ризицима у ванредним ситуацијама је данас незамисливо без употребе различитих онлајн доступних сервиса који омогућавају доносиоцима одлука који учествују у том процесу да у кратком временском периоду сагледају све могућности које им стоје на располагању. Предмет рада представља идентификација, анализа и опис најзначајнијих карактеристика информационих сервиса (Copernicus emergency management servise, geographic information system) и отворених база података о ризицима (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) који су неопходни за ефикасно управљање ризицима у ванредним ситуацијама. Резултати прегледног рада могу бити искоришћени за унапређење знања особља интервентно-спасилачких служби о расположивим могућностима употребе информационих сервиса и база података.Natural and anthropogenic emergencies represent the most serious scenario of compromising security, which conditions the use of state-of-the-art information services as well as the use of all available risk databases. In this regard, the risk management during emergiencies is unthinkable today without the use of various online services that enable decision-makers involved in the process to look at all the options at their disposal in a short period of time. The subject of the paper is the identification, analysis and description of the most important characteristics of information services (Copernicus emergency management services, a geographic information system) and open databases on risks (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) for effective risk management in emergencies. The results of the review work can be used to improve the knowledge of first responders about the available possibilities of using information services and databases.
26. Ispitivanje percepcije rizika o požarima u stambenim objektima: demografski i socio-ekonomski faktori uticaja – Examination of the fire risk perception in residential buildings: the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors
Požari su oduvek predstavljali ozbiljan izvor ugrožavanja bezbednosti ljudi i njihove imovine. Pored preduzimanja svih preventivno-tehničkih mera i radnji, potrebno je i unaprediti bezbednosnu kulturu ljudi. Iz tih razloga, autori u radu iznose rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije građana o požarima u stambenim objektima na području grada Beograda. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika građana na nivo percepcije rizika o požarima. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 322 ispitanika u periodu od početka do kraja jula 2017. godine. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je nivo percepcije verovatnoće nastanka požara najniži za period od godinu dana (M=2.12), zatim za period od pet godina (M=2.26), a najviši za period od 10 godina (M=2.35). Ocena individualne pripremljenosti iznosi M=2.77, zatim lokalne zajednice M=2.79 i na kraju države M=3.42. Kada je reč o posledicama, najviše ispitanika ističe da bi im požar mogao prouzrokovati materijalne posledice (M=2.77), zatim povrede (M=2.49) i na kraju gubitak života (2.00) itd. Polazeći od dobijenih rezultata, potrebno je koncipirati strategije i kampanje usmerene ka podizanju nivo pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, požari, građani, percepcija rizika, stambeni objekti.
27. Ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvodjenju nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u srednjim školama – Examination of students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” in secondary schools
Предмет квантитативног истраживања представља испитивање ставова ученика о увођењу наставног предмета ,,безбедносна култура“ у наставни план и програм за средњу школу. Поред тога, анализирају се и утицаји одређених каратеристика ученика на њихове позитивне или негативне ставове за увођење споменутог предмета. Вишеетапним случајним узорковањем, из укупне популације ученика средњих школа у Београду, обухваћен је узорак величине 3063 ученика из 14 средњих школа. Према добијеним резултатима, у највећој мери, ученици нису сигурни да ли су за увођење предмета (47,8%). Са друге стране, 26,2% ученика је одговорило да је за увођење предмета, док је 24,7% дало негативан одговор. Такође, у раду је утврђено је да на ставове испитаника о увођењу предмета статистички значајно утичу пол, године старости, запосленост родитеља, образовање оца и мајке, разред. Резултати истраживања могу бити искоришћени од стране доносиоца одлука приликом конципирања стратегија и програма увођења наставног предмета безбедносна култура у наставни план и програм за средњу школу у циљу и смањења ризика од катастрофа. Кључне речи: безбедност, катастрофе, ученици, ставови, истраживање —— The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks. Key words: safety, disasters, students, attitudes, research
28. Istorijski razvoj policijskog obrazovanja u Srbiji
29. Krizne situacije – pripremljenost države, lokalne zajednice i građana – Crisis situations – preparedness of state, local communities and citizens
У раду су изнети резултати квантитативног истраживања перцепције спремности органа државне управе и јединица локалне самоуправе, домаћинства и грађана за реаговање у кризним ситуацијама изазваним поплавама у Републици Србији. Полазећи од теорије спремности као оквира за објашњење начина на који се заједница мења у погледу спровођења одређених превентивних мера испитује се утицај одређених демографских, социо-економских и психолошких карактеристика грађана на њихову перцепцију спремности наведених субјеката система заштите и спасавања. Циљ квантитативног истраживања представља научна експликација утицаја наведених фактора на перцепцију спремности. У истраживању спроведеном у 19 локалних заједница у Србији применом стратегије испитивања у домаћинствима, вишеетапним случајним узорковањем анкетирано је 2500 грађана у току 2015. године. Резултати истраживања указују да је оцена спремности за реаговање највиша је код домаћинства (М = 3,03), а најнижа код органа јединица локалне самоуправе (М = 2,86). Утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност пола, година старости, висине прихода и претходног искуства са перцепцијом спремности домаћинства. Са друге стране, на перцепцију спремности државних органа статистички значајно утичу године старости, статус запослености, висина прихода и претходно искуство. Посебно је значајно споменути да страх испитаника од кризних ситуација не утиче на перцепцију спремности за реаговање. Полазећи од емпиријски неиспитаног стања перцепције спремности система заштите и спасавања за реаговање рад поседује високи научни и друштвени значај. При томе, резултати истраживања могу бити искоришћени за унапређење спремности таквог система. Кључне речи: безбедност, кризне ситуације, спремност, систем, државни органи, локалне самоуправе, домаћинства, грађани, Србија, квантитативно истраживање. Resume The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of perception of preparedness state administration and local governments, households and citizens to respond in disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Starting from the theory of preparedness as a framework for explanation of how the community is changing in terms of implementing specific preventive measures, authors examined the effects of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their perception preparedness of subjects protection and rescue system. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication impact of those factors on perception of the preparedness of subjects. In a survey conducted in 19 local communities in Serbia using a testing strategy in households, multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed in the course of 2015. The research results indicate that the assessment of readiness to respond highest among households (M = 3.03), and lowest in the bodies of local self-government (M = 2.86). There was a statistically significant correlation between sex, age, income level, and previous experience with the perception of the willingness of the household. The evaluation of individual readiness and willingness of households is higher in men than in women. Citizens aged 18 to 28 years recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household response, unlike citizens from 28 to 38 years who have recorded the highest level of readiness assessment bodies of local self-government. Employees citizens largely emphasize that the authorities are ready to respond. Individuals with incomes over 90,000 dinars recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household. Assessment of preparedness of state bodies and bodies of local self-government is the highest among the citizens with the amount of income to 50,000. Citizens who have had previous experience with floods, compared to those who did not have such experiences, there was a higher level: the assessment of individual readiness, willingness bodies of local self-government and state authorities to respond to natural disasters caused by flooding. On the other hand, the perception of the readiness of state bodies significantly affected by age, employment status, income, and previous experience. It is especially important to note that the respondents fear of a crisis situation does not affect the perception of readiness to respond. Starting from the empirical perception of the state of readiness of the unexamined system of protection and rescue response work possesses high scientific and social significance. In doing so, the results of research could be used to improve the readiness of such a system. Keywords: sеcurity, crisis situations, preparedness, system, state authorities, local governments, households, citizens of Serbia, quantitative research.
30. A survey of subjective opinions of population about seismic resistance of residential buildings – Case study of Serbia
The unpredictability and the seriousness of the potential earthquake consequences for people and residential buildings in Serbia imply the need for improving the resilience of local communities. The paper presents the results of a quantitative research regarding the level and factors of influence on the awareness of citizens about the seismic resistance of their residential buildings to earthquake consequences. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 1,018 citizens (face to face) during 2017 in 8 local communities: Kraljevo, Lazarevac, Jagodina, Mionica, Prijepolje, Vranje, Lapovo and Kopaonik. The questionnaire consisted of two segments: questions on demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of respondents and questions regarding resistance of residential buildings to earthquake consequences. The results show that 35% of respondents state that they live in residential buildings that are not resistant to earthquakes, while 70.7% state that they live in buildings built of reinforced concrete, which are considered safe. Beside that 9.2% of respondents examined the resistance of their facilities to earthquake consequences. Inferential statistical analyses show that men to a greater extent than women state that their buildings are resistant to earthquake consequences. Starting from the multidimensionality of citizen vulnerability to earthquakes, it is necessary to conduct additional studies and further elucidate the sociological dimension of vulnerability and resilience.
31. Uticaj personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa – Influence of personal and environmental factors on the help expectation from the first responders and humanitarian organizations during natural disasters.
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći građana od strane interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih od posledica prirodnih katastrofa i u okviru kojeg je anketirano 2500 građana korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da građani u najvećoj meri (4.26) očekuju pomoć od ukućana, a u najmanjoj meri od verskih zajednica (2.39). U odnosu na interventno-spasilačke službe, građani u najvećoj meri očekuju pomoć od vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica (3.62), a u najmanjoj meri od policije (3.31). Daljim statističkim analizama, utvrđeno je da postoji značajan uticaj pola na očekivanje pomoći za vreme prirodnih katastrofa od ukućana, verskih zajednica i policije. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje efikasnosti upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama u pogledu pružanja pomoći ugroženim ljudima. The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks.
32. Environmental aspects of using nuclear energy – Ekoloski aspekti upotrebe nuklearne energije
Nuclear technological production of electricity is characterized as a low-carbon technology, which on the one hand, has key importance in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while on the other hand there are numerous controversies, defensive approach and anxiety due to the danger of nuclear accidents and solving the problem of radioactive waste. Starting from the actuality and importance of the issue of the use of nuclear energy in the context of solving environmental changes, the paper carried out a thorough review of literature. On this occasion, the paper carried out an insight into the existing relevant scientific knowledge in this field and a secondary analysis of the contents of documents of relevant international institutions, which within their competence publish data on the energy state and current emissions of greenhouse gases on a global level. The majority of papers emphasize the advantage of the use of nuclear energy in comparison with the generation of energy in the process of combustion of fossil fuels. It is primarily stated that small amounts of radioactive gases, which are regularly discharged under controlled conditions in the operation of nuclear power plants, can not produce effects such as acid rain, smog, ozone depletion and do not contribute to an increase in temperature of the troposphere. However, the possibility of producing nuclear accidents and the severity of the consequences if radioactive isotopes leave the reactor uncontrollably, and the generation of radioactive waste results in a dilemma in the scientific and social community and creates a division in the acceptance of nuclear energy as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels.
33. Information systems and disaster risk management – Informacioni sistemi i upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa
Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, intensity, while on the other hand they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapid addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visulation for modern disaster risk management are examined.
34. Citizens education about floods: a Serbian case study – Edukacija građanja o poplavama: studija slučaja Srbije
The aim of quantitative research is a scientific explication of the effects certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological citizens characteristics on citizens education in Serbia about floods. It is because of that that during the whole 2015 a series of 2,500 face-to-face interviews was conducted in 19 out of the 190 municipalities of the Republic of Serbia. The study population consisted of all adult residents of the local communities in which floods occurred, and the sample size complied with the geographical and demographic size of the community. Results of the descriptive statistical analysis showed 24.9% of respondents were educated about natural disasters at school, 40.2% in the family, 29.9% at work, 39.9% of respondents know where elderly, disabled and infants live, 14% noted that they knew the risks of floods, etc. The research findings indicated that there is a statistically significant correlation between the level of knowledge about natural disasters and sex, age, marital status levels of education, fear of disaster, previous experience and income level. On the other hand, education at school, within the family, at work is statistically significantly associated with age, the level of education, marital status and employment status. The awareness of where elderly, disabled and infants live was not statistically significantly related to sex, the level of education, marital status and previous experience. The research indicates how to raise the level of citizens’ knowledge starting from their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. The research originality lies in the uncharted impact of those factors on the citizens’ knowledge about natural disasters in Serbia. The results can be used for the design of strategies to improve citizens’ knowledge about the natural disasters caused by flooding.
35. Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flood – Uticaj nivoa religioznosti na pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama
The subject of quantitative research was examination relationship between the level of religiousness and perception of citizen’s flood disaster preparedness. The aim of such research was a scientific explanation of relationships of these characteristics and perception. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns, as well as the city of Belgrade, in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. The respondent selection was conducted using the random sampling method on the adult household members who were present at the time of the survey. The results indicate that there is a a statistically significant correlation level of religiosity with perception in terms of preparedness of citizens to respond. The research results can contribute to improving citizens’ preparedness to respond to such events and can be used in creation of the strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond.
36. Citizens attitudes about emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia – Stavovi građana o vanrednim situacijama izazvanim epidemijama u Srbiji
Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. 2500 people from the area of 19 out of the total number of 190 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multistage sampling (personal interview). Survey results show that only 43.1% of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves from epidemics. The mean value of citizens’ preparedness to respond is 2.98 out of 5 and 28.2% of respondents are absolutely unprepared to respond. The results show that in higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women compared to men; respondents with university degrees compared to those who have completed primary school; respondents who have completed high school with honors compared to respondents who have completed high school with good grades, etc. Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The research results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond to emergencies caused by epidemics.
37. Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama – Barriers to improvement preparedness for responding to natural disasters
U radu koji predstavlja kvantitativno istraživanje izneti su rezultati ispitivanja koji se odnose na prepreke unapređenju mera spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Tom prilikom, primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 20,5% ispitanika misli da će im interventno-spasilačke službe pomoći, pa im mere spremnosti za reagovanje nisuni potrebne; 31,7% ispitanika ne smatra da su ugroženi ili da je njihovo domaćinstvo ugroženo od posledica katastrofa; 20,9% ispitanika ističe da nema vremena za to; 23,1% ispitanika misli da je preduzimanje tih mera veoma skupo; 19,4% smatra da nije sposobno za tako nešto; 22,8% ističe da nema podršku lokalne zajednice; 27% ističe da ne mogu sprečiti posledice prirodnih katastrofa ni na koji način. Rezultati inferencijalne statistike uticaja pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta, prethodnog iskustva i vojne obaveze pokazuju raznovrsne rezultate u pogledu njihove statističke povezanosti sa preprekama koje se odnose na spremnost za reagovanje.. Značaj sprovedenog istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda znanja o faktorima koji utiču na nizak nivo spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju modela unapređenja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, barijere, reagovanje, pol, roditeljstvo, zaposlenost, invaliditet, prethodno iskustvo, vojna obaveza. This paper presents the quantitative research results of the barrier improvement measures of preparedness to respond to natural disasters. The survey was conducted in 2015 in 19 local communities in Serbia. On that occasion, using a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed. Survey results show that 20.5% of respondents thought that his first responders already help him, such measures are not necessary; 31.7% of respondents thinks that himself or his household is not vulnerable from the consequences; 20.9% of respondents said that there is no time for that; 23.1% of respondents think that it is taking these measures very expensive; 19.4% think that it is not capable of such a thing; 22.8% declare that there is no support from the local community; 27% points out that it can not prevent the effects do not in any way. The results of inferential statistics, the influence of sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience and military obligations variety show results in terms of their statistical association with barriers readiness. The significance of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical and empirical stock of knowledge about the factors responsible for the low level of citizens’ readiness to respond to natural disasters. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing a model to improve the readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disasters, barriers, response, sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience, military service.
38. Posledice prirodnih katastrofa: faktori uticaja na percepciju građana Srbije – Consequences of natural disasters: factors of influence on Serbian citizens perception
Retki su danas događaji koji mogu baciti na kolena čitave lokalne zajednice kao što to čine ekstremne opasnosti poreklom iz prirode prouzrukujući ozbiljne katastrofe. Kao takve, one nanose ozbiljne posledice ljudima i njihovim materijalnim dobrima uprkos organizovanim pokušajima društva da se one ublaže. Preduzimanje preventivnih mera sa ciljem unapređenja zaštite od takvih događaja podrazumeva postojanje jasne svesti ljudi o mogućim posledicama, njihovim razmerama i ozbiljnostima. U vezi sa tim sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje u kojem su ispitani stavovi građana i njihova percepcija o posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Višeetapnim uzorkovanjem, anketnim ispitivanjem je obuhvaćeno oko dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest opština. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 23% ispitanika doživelo materijalne i 16% ispitanika nematerijalne posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Pri tome, statističke analize pokazuju da na nivo značajnosti od pet procenata na percepciju građana o materijalnim posledicama utiču sve posmatrane promenljive: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, prihodi, obrazovanje oca i majke, zaposlenost, roditeljstvo, dok na percepciju nematerijalnih posledica ne utiču pol, obrazovanje, obrazovanje majke i zaposlenost. Pri tome, upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama naprosto nameće potrebu za kontinuiranim istraživanjima uticaja prirodnih katastrofa na ljude iz čega i proizilazi naučna i društvena opravdanost sprovedenog istraživanja. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, kvantitativno istraživanje, posledice, građani, Srbija. Today its very rare the events that can throw the knee entire local community like extreme hazards originating from the nature causing a serious disaster. As such, they cause serious consequences to people and their material goods despite the organized efforts of society to mitigate them. Preventive measures with the aim of improving the protection of such events implies the existence of a clear awareness of people about the potential consequences of their scale and seriousness. In this regard we have conducted quantitative research which examined the attitudes of citizens and their perception of the consequences of natural disasters. With multistage sampling, a survey has covered about two thousand five hundred of citizens from the area of the nineteen municipalities. The survey results showed that 23% of respondents experienced material and 16% of non-pecuniary consequences of natural disasters. In addition, statistical analysis showed that the significance level of five percent, perception of citizens about the material consequences were affect all observed variables: gender, age, education, marital status, income, education of father and mother, employment, parenting, while the perception of intangible result not affected by gender, education, mother’s education and employment. At the same time, natural disaster management simply imposes the need for continuing research on the impact of natural disasters and people from which it follows scientific and social justification of the research. Keywords: natural disasters, quantitative research, consequences, and citizens of Serbia.
39. Metodologija istraživanja katastrofa i rizika: teorije, koncepti i metode – Disaster and Risk Research Methodology: Theories, Concepts and Methods
Закорачити у свет једне научне дисциплине без одговорајућих „алата“ може бити и те како застрашујуће и исцрпљујуће за младе истраживаче у области катастрофа те је појава монографије која нуди основна и почетна сазнања неопходна за разумевање вишеструких мултидисциплинарних теорија и концепата заиста драгоцена. Дуго се осећала потреба за делом које би не само помогло да се избегну почетничке погрешке већ и усмерило истраживаче ка свеобухватнијем разумевању катастрофа и промишљању о њима. Пред читаоцима је, коначно, рукопис из којег се може донекле сагледати колико се научна област истраживања катастрофа развила и на који начин је еволуирала. Ауторова вишегодишња истраживања дала су посебан печат и вредност овој монографији која ће послужити као својеврсни путоказ садашњим и будућим истраживачима у овој области. Полазећи од неопходности постојања јасног категоријалног апарата једне научне дисциплине, Meтодологија истраживања катастрофа и ризика – теорије, концепти и методе даје скроман допринос разграничењу популарних концепата. На свеобухватан и сажет начин описује се област проучавања и стварају услови за изградњу теорија и акумулацију знања, даје се и свеобухватан преглед најзначајнијих теорија и описују се примене квантитативне и квалитативне истраживачке традиције приликом истраживања катастрофа и ризика. Монографија се свесрдно препоручује студентима, истраживачима и осталима који се на било који начин интересују за област катастрофе. Посебну захвалност за идеју да напишем дело које би дало основне методолошке смернице заинтересованим истраживачима из области катастрофа дугујем цењеном проф. др Кости Андрејевићу, оснивачу Задужбине Андрејевић, који је значајно утицао на мој научни рад. Подршку за настанак монографије дугујем и Центру за катастрофе и еколошку безбедност, формираном у оквиру Универзитета у Београду, Факултета безбедности, Катедре студија цивилне заштите и заштите животне средине, којом руководи проф. др Владимир Јаковљевић коме дугујем посебну захвалност на несебичној подршци и знању које ми је од срца пружио у тешким тренуцима научног усавршавања и напредовања. Посебну захвалност дугујем и рецензентима проф. др Владимиру Јаковљевићу, проф. др Срђану Милашиновићу и проф. др Славољубу Драгићевићу који су у великој мери унапредили рукопис. Овом приликом споменуо бих и остале професоре који су дали значајан допринос мојим теоријским сазнањима и младој научној дисциплини управљања у катастрофама – проф. др Желимир Кешетовић, проф. др Јасмина Гачић, проф. др Бобан Милојковић и проф. др Драган Млађан. Искрено се захваљујем Задужбини Андрејевић на несебичној подршци коју ми пружа и нашој успешној вишегодишњој сарадњи.
In the monograph, which is systematized into a number of general and specifi cchapters, the author, in an accessible and understandable manner, theoretically discusses and describes the most important terms, concepts and theories related to disasters and risks. The fi rst three chapters are dedicated to the defi nition, classifi cation and understanding of disasters and hazards as basic concepts. Within the text related to actual concepts in the fi eld of disaster research, the author very briefl y describes the term, characteristics and dimensions of vulnerability, resistance and risk with particular reference to the perception, models and disaster risk assessment methodology. The central part of the paper refers to disaster research methods, namely to the description of evolution and characteristics of such methods. Starting from two major research traditions, the author analyzes in detail, describes and explains the application of quantitative and qualitative research traditions to explore a disaster. The final part of the paper provides an overview of the main characteristics and possibilities for the application of theories of vulnerability, resistance, preparedness, planned behavior, symbolic interactionism, systems and decision-making in the fi eld of disaster research. At the end, the paper discusses the management models, pressure and relieving, command systems, environmental ones and disaster modeling.
40. Risk management of natural disasters: concepts and methods – Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa: koncepti i metodi
Every day, people are exposed to a variety of risks ranging from small and insignificant to larger ones, such as natural disasters. The concept of risk has been a topic of interest for researchers from different disciplines in the past fifty years. For these reasons, there are many definitions of risk which reflect a scientific discipline itself from which they originated. Managing risks of natural disasters is very complex and conditioned by the existence of well-defined and elaborated management model that will allow efficient and prompt elimination of consequences. Certainly, understanding of the perception of risk is essential for the management prosess. Namely, individuals diferently perceive risks of natural disasters due to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. Thereby, there are various methods of risk evaluation, which are conditioned by scientific-disciplinary approach, origin and size of risks. Starting from the multi-dimensionality of risks of natural disasters, authors firstly analyze the theoretical determination of risk through the lens of different disciplines and perspectives with special emphasis on the types of risks. In addition, special attention is given to consideration of the risk management process through generally accepted models, methods and methodology of risk assessment in Serbia. Also, the paper gives an overview of the most important approaches to risks of natural disasters in social sciences.
41. Household supplies for natural disaster: factor of influence on the possession of supplies – Zalihe domaćinstva za prirodne katastrofe: činioci uticaja na posedovanje zaliha
Purpose – The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of certain factors on household possession of supplies necessary for the survival of the consequences of natural disasters. Design/methodology/approach – Quantitative research was conducted by using a survey strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The first step, which was related to the primary sampling units included selection of parts of the community for conducting research. The second step, which was related to research cores, included selection of streets or parts of streets at the level of primary sampling units and finally selection of households for surveying 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Findings – It was found that only 24.6% of respondents have supplies, while 61.5% have no supplies for surviving natural disasters. On the other hand, 37.2% of respondents possess supplies of food for 4 days, while only 12% have supplies of food for 1 day. It was found that 17.6% of the respondents have a transistor radio, 40% flashlight, 40.6% shovel, 25.8% hack, 33.6% hoe and spade, and 13.2% Fire extinguisher. The results of inferential statistical analyses show that there is a statistically significant influence of gender, education, marital status, parenthood, employment, income level, level of religiosity, completed military service on having supplies to survive the consequences of natural disasters. On the other hand, there was no influence of previous experiences on having supplies. Originality/value – research results allow the design of strategies aimed at raising the level of preparedness of households with regard to their supplies to natural disasters. Ključne reči – bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, zalihe, činioci uticaja, Srbija.
42. Пожари као угрожавајућа појава безбедности: чиниоци утицаја на знање о пожарима – Fires as threatening security phenomenon: factors of influence on knowledge about fires
У раду су изнети резултати квантитативног истраживања фактора утицаја на знање и перцепцију ученика о пожару као угрожавајућој појави безбедности. Применом вишеетапног узорка, анкетирано је 3063 ученика из 13 средњих школа са подручја града Београда. Дескриптивна статистичка анализа показује да за разлику од 95,4% испитаника који истичу да знају, само 63,6% стварно зна шта је пожар. На правилан начин одреаговало би само 57,1% испитаника. Резултати инференцијалних статистичких анализа показују да на перцепцију знања ученика о пожарима статистички значајно утичу пол, образовање оца и мајке, запосленост родитеља, информисање преко телевизије, интернета и видео игрица. Са друге стране, на објективно знање о пожарима утичу пол, образовање оца и мајке, информисање преко телевизије, радија и интернета. И на крају, утврђено је да на познавање правилног начина реаговања приликом пожара статистички значајно не утичу пол и начин информисања преко телевизије док утичу године старости, образовање оца и мајке, запосленост родитеља, информисање преко интернета, видео-игрица и радија. Развијањем безбедносне културе ученика у вези пожара као угрожавајућих појава безбедности умногоме се могу ублажити последице таквих догађаја. Резултати истраживања могу бити искоришћени као полазна основа у конципирању образованих програма ученика о пожарима. Кључне речи: безбедност, природне катастрофе, пожар, чиниоци, ученици, Србија. This paper presents the results of quantitative research of factors influencing knowledge and perceptions of students about fire as threatening security phenomenon. Applying a multi-stage sample interviewed 3063 students from 13 secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that in contrast to the 95.4% of respondents who said they knew, only 63.6% really knows what is a fire. In a proper way will react only 57.1% of respondents. The results of inferential statistical analysis shows that the perception of students knowledge on fires significantly affect gender, education of father and mother, parents’ employment, information via television, Internet and video games. On the other hand, the objective knowledge on fires affect gender, education of father and mother, information via television, radio and the Internet. Finally, it was found that the knowledge of proper ways to react when fire happened is not significantly affected by gender and way of information via television, but affected by age, education of father and mother, parents employment, information via Internet, video games and radio. Developing students security culture in relation fire as a threatening security phenomenon in many ways can mitigate the consequences of such events. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing the educational programs of students about fires. Key words: security, natural disasters, fire, factors, students, Serbia.
43. Informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama – Informed of citizens about firefighters jurisdiction in emergency situations
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja informisanosti građana Srbije o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja određenih demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno 2015. godine i u samom procesu anketnog ispitivanja realizovanog na području devetnaest lokalnih zajednica anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana. Tom prilikom primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati sprovedenih deskriptivnih i inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je srednja vrednost obaveštenosti ispitanika o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama 2,78, odnosno 22% ispitanika je u apsolutnoj meri neobavešteno, 15,8% u izvesnoj meri neobavešteno, 32,5% niti obavešteno niti neobavešteno, 14,8% u izvesnoj meri obavešteno i 11,8% u apsolutnoj meri obavešteno o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Pored toga, rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost obaveštenosti ispitanika sa polom, volonterstvom, bavljenjem sportom, roditeljstvom, zaposlenošću, godinama starosti, nivom obrazovanja, bračnim statusom i nivom religioznosti dok nije utvrđena značajna povezanost sa prethodnim iskustvom u vanrednim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje svesti građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice, informisanost, građani.
44. Činioci uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji – Factors of impact on the citizens awareness of disaster risks in Serbia
Svakodnevno, ljudi se susreću sa raznovrsnim bezbednosnim rizicima koji mogu ugroziti njihov život i zdravlje. Svest građana o lokalnim rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija jeste preduslov unapređenja njihove pripremljenosti značajne za ublažavanje posledica. Upravo zato, sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje sa ciljem naučne eksplikacije činioca uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji. Korišćenjem višeetapnog uzorkovanja, anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je samo polovina ispitanika svesna rizika nastanka vanrednih situacija u lokalnoj zajednici. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da na svest građana o rizicima utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, uspeh u osnovnoj školi, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, bračni status, roditeljstvo, briga o invaliditetu, zaposlenost, prihodi domaćinstva, prethodno iskustvo i volonterstvo. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja proizilazi iz neispitanog nivoa svesti građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija i činiocima koji direktno ili indirektno utiču na njen nivo. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za koncipiranje strategija i programa usmerenih ka podizanju svesti građana o lokalnim bezbednosnim rizicima. Ključne reči: vanredne situacije, rizici, građani, Srbija.
45. Pripremljenost za reagovanje na rizike od prirodnih katastrofa – Preparedness for responding to natural disaster risks
Predgovor – Polazeći od nemogućnosti sprečavanja nastanka prirodnih katastrofa, ljudima, nažalost, jedino preostaje da unapređuju svoju pripremljenost kako bi mogli da ublaže posledice takvih događaja. Rukovodeći se značajem pripremnih aktivnosti za izbegavanje najgorih mogućih scenarija prirodnih katastrofa, autori su korišćenjem kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije na jedan sistematičan način ispitali stavove građana o pripremljenosti državnih organa, lokalnih zajednica i samih građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. U prvom delu monografije ispitani su uticaji demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na individualnu pripremljenost za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, od ukupno 2471 ispitanika samo 26,6% je istaklo da je spremno za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Po istom principu, autori su ispitali uticaje spomenutih faktora i na pripremljenost lokalnih zajednica za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je da samo 25,5% ističe da je njihova lokalna zajednica pripremljena za reagovanje. Sa druge strane, rezultati pokazuju da je samo jedna trećina odnosno 31,6% ispitanika naglasilo da je država Srbija spremna za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je i da 38,6% ispitanika misli da će im preduzimanje mera pripremljenosti pomoći da se izbore sa posledicama prirodne katastrofe. Na kraju, autori polazeći od dugogošnjeg iskustva, daju konkretne preporuke za unapređenje bezbednosti građana za svaku od vrsta prirodnih katastrofa. Apstrakt – U monografiji se ističe da, polazeći od nemogućnosti sprečavanja nastanka prirodnih katastrofa, ljudima jedino preostaje da unapređuju svoju pripremljenost kako bi mogli da ublaže posledice takvih događaja. Rukovodeći se značajem pripremnih aktivnosti za izbegavanje najgorih mogućih scenarija prirodnih katastrofa, autori su korišćenjem kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije na sistematičan način ispitali stavove građana o pripremljenosti državnih organa, lokalnih zajednica i samih građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. U prvom delu monografije ispitani su uticaji demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na individualnu pripremljenost za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, od ukupno 2.471 ispitanika samo je 26,6% istaklo da je spremno za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Po istom principu, autori su ispitali uticaje spomenutih faktora i na pripremljenost lokalnih zajednica za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je da samo 25,5% ističe da je njihova lokalna zajednica pripremljena za reagovanje. Sa druge strane, rezultati pokazuju da je samo jedna trećina odnosno 31,6% ispitanika naglasilo da je država Srbija spremna za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je i da 38,6% ispitanika misli da će im preduzimanje mera pripremljenosti pomoći da se izbore sa posledicama prirodne katastrofe. Na kraju, autori, polazeći od dugogošnjeg iskustva, daju konkretne preporuke za unapređenje bezbednosti građana za svaku od vrsta prirodnih katastrofa. Abstract – Starting from the inability to prevent the occurrence of natural disasters, unfortunately, the only thing people can do is to improve their preparedness in order to mitigate the consequences of such events. Guided by the importance of preparatory activities to avoid the worst possible scenarios of natural disasters, the authors examined in a systematic way the attitudes of citizens towards the preparedness of state authorities, local communities and citizens to respond in such situations, using quantitative research traditions. In the first part of the monograph, they examined the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on individual preparedness to respond to natural disasters. Based on the results, out of a total of 2471 respondents, only 26.6% noted that they are prepared to respond to a natural disaster. By the same token, the authors examined the effects of these factors on the preparedness of local communities to respond. It was found that only 25.5% state that their local community is prepared to respond. On the other hand, the results show that only one-third or 31.6% of the respondents stated that the Republic of Serbia is prepared to respond. It was found that 38.6% of respondents think that taking measures will help them cope with the consequences of natural disasters. Finally, starting from long experience, the authors provide specific recommendations for improving the security of the citizens for each type of natural disasters.
46. Informisanje građana o vanrednim situacijama: činioci uticaja i modaliteti – Informing of citizens about emergency situations: influence factors and modalities
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja određenih činioca na modalitete informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama. Posebna pažnja je bila usmerena ka ispitivanju uticaja sledećih činioca na informisanje: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, status zaposlenosti i roditeljstva, percepcija rizika i prethodno iskustvo. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Dobijeni rezultati deskriptivnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je najviše građana o vanrednim situacijama informisano preko televizije 58,9%, zatim preko štampe 31,7%, ukućana 31,2%, interneta 28,7%, radio emisija 15,7%, u školi 14,3% i u na kraju u okviru porodice 12%. Rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost načina informisanja preko televizija sa polom, bračnim statusom i statusom zaposlenosti. Sa druge strane, način informisanja preko radio emisija je povezan sa obrazovanjem i prethodnim iskustvom. Na informisanje građana preko štampe i interneta statistički značajno utiču pol, obrazovanje i bračni status. Ispitivanje modaliteta informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama ima veliki naučni i društveni značaj. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja u velikoj meri mogu uticati na opredeljenje izbora najadekvatnijeg načina informisanja pojedinih kategorija građana. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u neispitanom stanju i modalitetima najoptimalnijeg informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama u Srbiji. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, informisanje, činioci, građani.
47. Percepcija rizika od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama – Risk perception of natural disasters caused by floods
Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje percepcije građana o riziku nastanka prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ocene ugroženosti njihovog domaćinstva. T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka ispitana je povezanost pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta i prethodnog iskustva, dok je jednofaktorskom analizom varijanse ispitana povezanost godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja i bračnog statusa sa percepcijom rizika i ocenom ugroženosti domaćinstva. Cilj sprovedenog istraživanja se ogleda u naučnoj eksplikaciji uticaja navedenih promenljiva. Primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 13,4% ispitanika ističe da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih godinu dana, neznatno više ispitanika 28,9% smatra da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih pet godina i 39,3% ispitanika ističe je da je ugroženo njihovo domaćinstvo. Utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost između percepcije rizika, roditeljstva, prethodnog iskustva, vojne obaveze, godine starosti i bračni status. Kada je reč o oceni ugroženosti domaćinstva statistički značajno je povezana sa roditeljstvom, prethodnim iskustvom, vojnom obavezom, nivoom obrazovanja i bračnim statusom. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za podizanje nivoa svesti o rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama kao ključni preduslov podizanja njihove spremnosti za reagovanje. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, rizik, kvantitativno istraživanje, percepcija, poplave, faktori. The subject of quantitative research is to examine citizens risk perception about the occurrence risk of natural disaster caused by flood and assessments vulnerability of their household. T – test for independent samples examined the relationship of gender, parenting, employment, disability and previous experience, while the single factor analysis of variance examines the relationships of age, educational level and marital status with the perception of risk and assessment vulnerability of households. The aim of the research is reflected in the scientific explication of the mentioned variable. By applying a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling were surveyed 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Survey results show that 13.4% of respondents said that it is probable that there will be flooding in the next year, slightly more respondents 28.9% said it was unlikely that there will be flooding in the next five years and 39.3% of respondents said that threatened their household. There was a statistically significant association between risk perception, parenting, previous experience, compulsory military service, age and marital status. When it comes to assess the vulnerability of the household was significantly associated with parenting, previous experience, military service, level of education and marital status. The research results can be used to raise awareness about the risks of natural disasters caused by floods as a key precondition for raising their readiness to respond. Key words: security, natural disasters, risk, quantitative research, perception, floods, factors.
48. Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study – Rodne razlike u percepciji rizika i pripremljenosti za poplave: studija slučaja – Srbija
The catastrophic flood occurred in Serbia in 2014 was one of the most critical events registered in the Balkan area in the last decades. The procedures for evacuation have been tough to manage indicating a low level of perception and preparedness towards flood events. Also, the failure in the response phase showed a gender unbalance, where information did not reach men and women equally. Urgently, the Council for Gender Equality Government of the Republic of Serbia held an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the flood planning and emergency support in a gendered perspective. It concluded with the necessity of developing more gender-sensitive statistics, indicators of vulnerability, reconstruction and recovery to floods. For these reasons, we conducted an extensive interview to underlined the differences in risk perception and preparedness actions of both women and men regarding flood events in Serbia. 2500 face-to-face interviews have been conducted in 19 out of 150 municipalities being a good representative sample of the country with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research findings indicated that is a gender disparity among men and women both in the perception than in the preparedness actions toward floods. Men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, assessing a greater individual and household preparedness. This could be ascribable to their active involvement in the army where young men were educated to manage emergency situations. They displayed more trust in themselves rather than external agencies or organisation, and this could result in a general mistrust on institutions and planned evacuations. On the other hand, women displayed larger sensitivity and knowledge to these events, however, this did not translate into a capacity to react. It has been assumed that their work as child-carers and housekeepers made them unable to create a strong social network within the community being less informed and involved in the decision-making process. For this purpose, planners might consider how this can affect the way authorities can reach women with hazard information and emergency warnings. However, they should not be seen as sole victims, but valuable resources able to take leading roles in building disaster resilience. In this work they displayed higher organisation of basic supplies and emergency amenities, saving important documents and dealing with the financial matters of the household. This should be taken as an advantage in preparing the family for a possible hazard situation, enlarging their selfconfidence and burdens of responsibilities. Demographic and economic attributes, behaviours and beliefs reflect gender power relations in the flood hazard context in Serbia. Failing to recognise it, may lead to inefficient community-based risk management plans. Thus, there is a systematic need to investigate and acknowledge the role of gender dynamics without limiting gender as an isolated variable. This work will contribute raising further investigations on this topic especially in a country like Serbia where this topic was weakly investigated.
49. Činioci uticaja na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja činioca uticaja na znanje građana o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Statističkom metodom i metodom iskustvene generalizacije stratifikovane su lokalne zajednice u Republici Srbiji sa u kojima postoiji rizik od nastanka poplava. Na taj način dobijen je stratum, odnosno populacija koju su činili svi punoletni stanovnici lokalnih zajednica i metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih 19 od ukupno 154 u kojima je indikovana ugroženost od poplava. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 77% ispitanika zna šta je poplava kao prirodna katastrofa. Utvrđeno je da na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama statistički značajno utiču sledeći činioci: pol, godine starosti, prihodi, bračni status, percepcija rizika, zaposlenost i strah. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo znanja statistički značajno ne utiče status zaposlenosti građana. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pružaju odgovarajuću empirijsko-teorijsku osnovu za unapređenje znanja građana o prirodnim katastrofama što ujedno smanjuje i njihovu ugroženost od samih posledica takvih događaja. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, činioci, građani, poplave, Srbija.
50. Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for natural disasters
51. Ispitivanje znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme prirodnih katastrofa – Research into students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting during disasters
Bezbednost omladine nakon posledica prirodnih katastrofa direktno je uslovljena njihovim poznavanjem načina postupanja u takvim situacijama. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu predstavljaju rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje statistički značajnog uticaja određenih personalnih i sredinskih faktora na nivo znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja. U realizaciji istraživanja korišćeno je anketno ispitivanje zasnovano na višeetapnom slučajnom uzorkovanju kako bi se obezbedila odgovarajuća reprezentativnost. Ukupno je anketirano oko 3548 učenika iz osamnaest osnovnih i srednjih škola sa područja Beograda. Prema dobijenim rezultatima istraživanja, utvrđeno je da bi 42,9% ispitanika pravilno postupilo za vreme zemljotresa, 77,9% za vreme poplava, 69,2% za vreme klizišta, 92,9% za vreme suše, 90,2% za vreme cunamija, 80,2% za vreme jakih vetrova, 57% za vreme šumskih požara, i 68,8% za vreme epidemija. Pored toga, utvrđeni su različiti uticaji personalnih i sredinskih faktora na pravilnost postupanja za svaku od spomenutih prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje bezbednosti omladine za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. The safety of youth against the consequences of natural disasters is directly conditioned by their knowledge of the way of acting in such situations. Accordingly, the authors present the results of quantitative research of students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting during natural disasters. The aim of the research is to examine the statistically significant influence of certain personal and environmental factors on the level of students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting. The research included a survey based on multipoint random sampling in order to ensure adequate representativity. A total of 3548 students from 18 primary and secondary schools from Belgrade were interviewed. According to the obtained results of the survey, 42.9% of the respondents would properly act during earthquakes, 77.9% during floods, 69.2% during landslides, 92.9% during droughts, 90.2% during tsunami, 80.2% during heavy winds, 57% during forest fires, and 68.8% during epidemics. In addition, there are various influences of personal and environmental factors on the properness of acting for each of the mentioned natural disasters. The research results can be used to improve the safety of youth during natural disasters.
52. Ispitivanje uloge porodice u edukaciji dece o prirodnim katastrofama – Examination of the family role in education children about disaster
Efikasno smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa je jedino moguće sprovesti kroz implementaciju integrisanog obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice, škole i lokalne zajednice. Rukovodeći se time, predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stanja i faktora uticaja na edukaciju učenika o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice. Pored toga, u radu se ispituje i nivo motivisanosti učenika za edukaciju u okviru porodice, ali i i u okviru škole kako bi se sveobuhvatnije sagledali njihovi stavovi u tom pogledu. U realizaciji istraživanja korišćen je višeetapni slučajni uzorak i u prvom koraku je korišćenjem liste svih osnovnih i srednjih škola u Beogradu na slučajan način odabrano njih 18. U drugom koraku, korišćenjem spiskova učionica u kojima se održava nastava, izabrane su učionice i anketirani učenici koji su prisustvovali nastavi. Sa procentom odgovora od 98%, anketirano je 3548 učenika u spomenutom broju osnovnih i srednjih škola. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 70,7% učenika istaklo da je edukovano u okviru porodice, 57,4% bi želelo da bude edukovano o prirodnim katastrofama, 18% bi želelo da se edukuje u okviru porodice, a 51,9% u okviru škole. Inferencijalne statističke analize pokazuju da na edukaciju u okviru porodice statistički značajno utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje oca i majke, razred pohađanja i prosek u školi. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja ogleda se u upostavljanju reprezentativne empirijske osnove koja može poslužiti donosiocima odluka prilikom uspostavljanja integrisanog sistema smanjenja rizika od katastrofa kroz obrazovanje. Effective reduction of risks of natural disasters is only possible through the implementation of integrated education on natural disasters within the family, school and local community. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the examination of the condition and influencing factors on the education of students on natural disasters within the family. In addition, the paper examines the level of students’ motivation for education within the family, but also within the school, in order to more comprehensively review their attitudes in this respect. For the purposes of the research, a multi-point random sample was used and in the first step, using the list of all primary and secondary schools in Belgrade, 18 of them were selected randomly. In the second step, using the lists of classrooms in which classes were held, classrooms were selected and respondents who attended the classes were interviewed. With a high percentage of answers, 3548 students were interviewed in the above mentioned number of primary and secondary schools. The results of the survey show that 70.7% of the students pointed out that they were educated within the family, 57.4% would like to be educated about natural disasters, 18% would like to be educated within the family, and 51.9% within the school. Inferential statistical analyses show that education within the family is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, father and mother education, grade and school achievement. The scientific and social importance of the research is reflected in the establishment of a representative empirical basis that can serve to decision-makers when establishing an integrated disaster risk reduction system through education.
53. Vanredne situacije izazvane upotrebom radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe – Emergency situations caused by use of the radiological weapons for terrorist purposes
Savremeni terorizam koga karakteriše upotreba oružja za masovno uništavanje predstavlja jedan od najozbiljnijih scenarija ugrožavanja bezbednosti građana. Teroristima na raspolaganju stoji različit izbor oružja za masovno uništavanje koje se razlikuje po svojim karakteristikama i načinima njegove primene. Zbog povećane pretnje upotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, krajem XX veka je uvršćeno u oružje za masovno uništavanje iako je njegova upotreba razmatrana još davne 1941. godine. Polazeći od mogućnosti zloupotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, autori u radu elaboriraju pojam i vrste radiološkog oružja, sa posebnim osvrtom na njegovu primenu u prošlosti. Pored toga, analiziraju se i opisuju karakteristike i načini njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe.
54. Examination of citizens’ attitudes towards providing support to vulnerable people and volunteering during natural disasters – Ispitivanje stavova građana o pružanju pomoći ugroženim ljudima i volontiranju za vreme prirodnih katastrofa
The subject of quantitative research is to examine the factors influencing citizens’ attitudes towards assisting vulnerable people and volunteering during natural disasters. In this paper, the authors examine the relationship between gender, age, level of education, marital status, employment, income level and perception of personal religiosity, and the attitudes to assisting vulnerable people and volunteering. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 2500 citizens in the area of 19 local communities endangered by the consequences of natural disasters. The results of the survey show that 29% of respondents would provide assistance to vulnerable people in the form of money, 18,2% in the form of food and water, 21,6% in clothing and footwear, 23,3% would volunteer, while 4,6% would engage in shelter centers for endangered people. In addition, it was found that there was no statistically significant relationship between the attitudes towards providing assistance in the form of money and the employment status. As well as, attitudes about volunteering and provision of food and water assistance are not related to the employment status of respondents, etc. The results of the research can be used to improve the management system in natural disasters and to create appropriate educational programs for establishing a more efficient and comprehensive system of assistance to vulnerable people and the operation of volunteer organizations. Key words: natural disasters, attitudes about helping, providing assistance, volunteering. ——- Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje faktora koji utiču na kreiranje stavova građana o pružanju pomoći ugroženim ljudima i volontiranju za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. U radu, autori ispituju povezanost pola, godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja, bračnog statusa, zaposlenosti, visine prihoda i percepcije lične religioznosti sa stavovima o pružanju pomoći ugroženim ljudima i volontiranju. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 2500 građana na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi 29% ispitanika pružilo pomoć ugroženim ljudima u vidu novca, 18,2% u vidu hrane i vode, 21,6% u vidu odeće i obuće, 23,3% bi volontiralo, dok bi se 4,6% angažovalo u centrima za prijem ugroženih ljudi. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost stavova o pružanju pomoći u vidu novca sa statusom zaposlenosti. Takođe, stavovi o volonterstvu i pružanju pomoći u vidu hrane i vode nisu povezani sa statusom zaposlenosti ispitanika itd. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje sistema upravljanja u prirodnim katastrofama i kreiranje odgovarajućih obrazovnih programa za uspostavljanje efikasnijeg i sveobuhvatnijeg sistema pružanja pomoći ugroženim ljudima i rada volonterskih organizacija. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, stavovi o pomaganju, pružanje pomoći, volontiranje.
55. Theory of vulnerability and disaster risk reduction – Teorija ugroženosti i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa
Од првих спроведених истраживања из области катастрофа, велику пажњу истраживача, одувек је заокупљивало питање мултидимензионалне природе угрожености људи последицама таквих догађаја. Када су сва релевантна научна истраживања показала да су упркос стагнацији тренда догађања катастрофа у свету последице све озбиљније, почела се средином седамдесетих година развијати теорија угрожености од катастрофа. Управо тада, питање угрожености се почиње појављивати као основна претпоставка и идеја за ублажавање последица неуобичајених и несвакидашњих догађаја као што су катастрофе. Аутори у раду описују теорију угрожености од катастрофа, а при томе посебну пажњу поклањају теоријском одређењу, приступима и димензијама угрожености. Кључне речи: безбедност, катастрофе, угроженост, ризик, димензије.
56. Concept of disaster resilience – Koncept otpornosti na katastrofe
U proteklih nekoliko decenija naučnici iz oblasti društvenih nauka koji su za predmet svog interesovanja imali katastrofe umnogome su doprineli uspostavljanju osnovnih teorija i koncepata neophodnih za proučavanje navedenih pojava. Naučna saznanja iz oblasti katastrofa bila su pravo teorijsko bogatstvo iskorišćeno za unapređenje bezbednosti ljudi od posledica katastrofa. Praksa je pokazala, svako društvo koje je svoju bezbednosnu politiku upravljanja u katastrofama zasnivalo na naučno utemeljenim činjenicama i principima moglo je u velikoj meri da ublaži ili se oporavi od nastalih posledica katastrofa. Iako je u početku istraživanje katastrofa potpadalo u domen sociologije danas ono na različite načine privlači istraživače društvenih i prirodnih nauka i prepoznato je kao multidisciplinarna i primenjena oblast. Polazeći od prethodnih konstatacija, autori u radu sveobuhvatno analiziraju i opisuju teoriju otpornosti. U radu, posebna pažnja se poklanja određenju pojma otpornosti, njegovim modalitetima i karakteristikama – In the past few decades, scientists in the field of social sciences which are for the subject their interest disaster had greatly contributed to the establishment of basic theories and concepts necessary for the study mentioned phenomena. Scientific knowledge in the field of disaster was the right theoretical richness used for improving the safety of people from the disaster. Practice has shown that every society has its security policy of disaster management was based on scientifically based facts and principles it could greatly mitigate or recover from disasters caused. Although initially researching disasters fall within the domain of sociology today what the different ways researchers are attracted to social and natural sciences and is recognized as a multi-disciplinary and applied power. Starting from the previous conclusions, in the work of authors and comprehensive analysis of the theory describing the resilience from the point of theoretical determination. In this paper, special attention is paid to the definition of the concept of resilience, its modalities and characteristics.
57. MARITAL STATUS OF CITIZENS AND FLOODS: CITIZEN PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONSE TO NATURAL DISASTERS – BRAČNI STATUS GRAĐANA I POPLAVE: PRIPREMLJENOST GRAĐANA ZA REAGOVANJE U PRIRODNIM KATASTROFAMA
This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the influence of marital status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation of relationship between marital status and preparedness. In order to realize research, nineteen communities were randomly selected in which 2,500 persons were surveyed, in 2015. On that occasion, households were questioned using the multi-stage random sample. The research results suggest that married would in the highest percentage give money to help flood victims, long-lasting rains make them to think about preparedness for floods, they know what flood is, they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period during and after the flood, they know where in local community elders, disabled and infants live, they know safety procedures for responding during floods, they would evacuate to a friend’s place. On the other side, divorced citizens in the lowest percentage take preventive measures to reduce tangible consequences caused by floods, they are not yet prepared, but will start preparing next month, they know what flood is, they would evacuate to the upper floors of the house, say that someone at primary/secondary school and within family educated them on floods, they know what to do after an official warning about approach of flood, they got information about floods at faculty, through informal education and through media. The research results can be used in designing strategies and campaigns aimed to raise the level of preparedness of citizens with regard to their marital status. Key words: security, natural disaster, flood, citizens, marital status, preparedness, Serbia
58. Upravljanje u kriznim situacijama izazvanim klizištima – Management in crisis situations caused by landslides
Klizanje delova površinskog sloja Zemljine kore jedan je od najčešćih geodinamičkih procesa. Kao posledica ovog procesa postaju klizišta. I u slučajevima kada su manjeg intenziteta i na manjim površinama klizišta predstavljaju ozbiljan problem skoro u svim delovima sveta, jer su uzrok ekonomskih i socijalnih gubitaka i nanose direktnu i indirektnu štetu privatnim i javnim dobrima. Neposrednu štetu stvaraju u trenutku aktiviranja, oštećenjem objekata i ljudskim gubicima unutar površine ugrožene klizanjem. Posredna šteta se iskazuje kroz duže vremensko razdoblje, smanjenjem vrednosti objekata oštećenih materijalnih dobara klizanjem, gubitkom produktivnosti zbog prekida proizvodnje ili prometa i troškovima sanacije štete. Vrlo često postajemo svesni postojanja klizišta tek kad se aktiviraju i unište sve pred sobom. Pa i tada nova klizišta stvaraju probleme ljudima koji tu žive, a ostali su samo posmatrači koji već sledećeg dana, zbog novih događaja, zaborave šta se desilo sve do sledeće pojave klizišta sa novim štetama pa često i ljudskim žrtvama. Na osnovu poznavanja mehanizma klizanja, klizišta su prirodne pojave. Međutim, priroda samo omogućava uslove za njihovo formiranje, a ključni činilac u njihovom pokretanju je čovek. U stalnoj težnji da upravlja prirodom, prirodnim zakonima i procesima, a u cilju unapređenja životnih uslova i standarda kao i tehnološkog napretka, čovek je sve manje spreman da prihvati dešavanja u prirodi na način kako su se nekad dešavala. Iz tog razloga nastoji da uspostavi kontrolu nad prirodnim pojavama pa i nad kliznim procesima, odnosno klizištima. U pokušaju da spreči nastanak i razvoj klizanja terena, čovek koristi dostignuća nauke i stečena iskustva primenjena kroz sanacione mere. Na žalost čovek svojim greškama izazvanim neznanjem, nehatom, neplanskim razvojem, nekontrolisanom eksploatacijom prirodnih resursa i dr. utiče na pojavu klizišta. Veličina štete nastale klizanjem povećavaju se sa ekonomskim razvojem. O razmerama štete izazvane klizištima, može se objektivno suditi prema podacima iz razvijenih zemalja, gde se vrše objektivna izučavanja uzroka i posledica, način borbe sa klizištima, prognoze razvoja procesa i planiranje štete prilikom izgradnje. Obzirom da su klizišta važan činilac životne sredine, da bi se čovek od njih zaštitio neophodno je pri izučavanju ovakvih terena dobro izučiti sve aspekte zakonitosti njihovog pojavljivanja i njima prilagođavati metodološke i radne postupke. U novije vreme ovakva istraživanja spadaju u oblast ekogeoloških istraživanja i sprovode se u procesu planiranja, projektovanja i građenja objekata. Pri tome treba stalno imati u vidu da je tlo složena prirodna tvorevina, skoro uvek heterogena u pogledu fizičko-mehaničkih svojstava sa procesima koji menjaju svojstva zemljišta tokom vremena. Uvažavanje ovih procesa, njihovog prostornog rasprostranjenje i stepena aktiv- nosti znatno bi se smanjile moguće štete od ovih egzogenih procesa. Autori iskazuju posebnu zahvalnost recenzentima prof. dr Slobodanu Markoviću, prof. dr Slavoljubu Dragićeviću i prof. dr Vladimiru Jakovljeviću koji su svojim stručnim sugestijama u velikoj meri unapredili tekst monografije.
59. Obuka građana za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama – Citizens’ training for emergency situations
60. Assessment of Women’s Vulnerability and their Coping Mechanism Living in Flood prone Areas: A Case Study of Belkuchi Upazila, Sirajgan – Процена рањивости жена и механизми њиховог суочавања са последицама у областима изложеним поплавама: студија случаја Белкучи Упазила, Сирајгањ
Women are the most vulnerable in a disastrous situation compared to their male counterpart. It is evident in several studies that among all other natural disasters, flood causes immense sufferings of women due to the low standard of living condition in flood prone areas of Bangladesh and poor institutional arrangement. The geographical location and low elevation of land with numerous rivers is caused Bangladesh most vulnerable to flooding. This research is focused to explore women’s vulnerability at the community level due to flood and possible coping mechanisms. Both secondary and primary data have been used and analyzed to identify vulnerability and women’s coping mechanism with flood at Khidrachappur, Baradul in Belkuchi Upazila. The study found that the flood has adverse impacts which are different for different population groups. In reality, women are affected more severely and their role is quite negligible in decision making, and participation in training related to flood issues is also insignificant. Women suffer from physical injuries and are often evicted from their dwellings due to floods. Difficulties in finding adequate shelter, food, safe water, and fuel for cooking, as well as problems in maintaining personal hygiene and sanitation, prevent women from performing their usual roles at home. Despite this heavy burden, which women bear in extremely difficult circumstances, they demonstrate considerable fortitude and ingenuity in their attempts to cope with the flood by taking several steps like selling assets, moving towards high place, storing dry food, social networking, borrowing money, collecting safe drinking water and managing household activities etc. It was noted that despite all adversities women can cope with the flood situation and show their resilience capacity. Key words: Geographical Location, Flood, Flood prone Areas, Vulnerability, Coping Mechanism, Gender. Жене су рањивије у односу на мушкарце за време катастрофалних ситуација. У многим студијама забележено je да од свих природних катастрофа за време поплава жене доживљавају огромне патње поготово због ниског животног стандарда и лошег институционалног ангажмана у областима са високим ризиком настанка поплава у Бангладешу. Географска локација и нижа надморска висина терена са већим бројем река чини Бангладеш веома угроженим. Предмет истраживања односи се на испитивање рањивости жена и начине преживљавања последица поплава. Примарни и секундарни подаци анализирани су како би се идентификовала рањивост и механизми суочавања жена са последицама поплава у Kидрахапуру, Барадулу у Белкухи Упазили. Резултати истраживања показали су да последица поплава различито утичу на мушкарце и жене. Такође, утврђено је да жене доживљавају озбиљније последице, да је њихова улога у процесу одлучивању поприлично занемарена, као и учествовање у обукама. Тешкоће приликом проналаска адекватног смештаја, хране и воде, проблеми у одржавању личне хигијене онемогућавају жене да обављају своје свакодневне активности у домаћинствима. Упркос потешкоћама са којима се сусрећу за време катастрофа, оне показују истрајност и генијалност у покушајима да се изборе са поплавом па често предузимају следеће мере: продаја и пресељење у делове заједница са вишом надморском висионом, складиштење суве хране, позајмљивање новца. Дакле, поред свих недаћа жене су показале да су кадре да се суоче са последицама поплава. Кључне речи: географска локација, поплава, области угрожене поплавом, угроженост, механизми суочавања, пол
61. Household preparedness for natural disasters: the impact of previous experiences citizens on level of preparedness – Припремљеност за природне катастрофе: утицај претходног искуства грађана на ниво припремљености
У раду су изнети резултати квантитативног истраживања утицаја претходног искуства грађана на припремљеност домаћинства за природне катастрофе. У анкетном испитивању спроведеном у току 2015. године, применом вишеетапног случајног узорка анкетирано је 2500 грађана у 19 локалних заједница. Резултати истраживања показују да постоји статистички значајна повезаност претходног искуства са већином анализираних променљива у вези перцепције припремљености, знања, залиха и планова: превентивне мере, ангажовање у пружању помоћи на терену, ниво припремљености домаћинства, залихе воде и хране, познавање безбедносних процедура и начина евакуације итд. Полазећи од добијених резултата истраживања, у раду су изнете и препоруке за унапређење припремљености домаћинства за природне катастрофе с обзиром на претходно искуство грађана. Кључне речи: безбедност, природна катастрофа, припремљеност, претходно искуство, Србија. Аbstract: The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of previous experiences of citizens on preparedness for natural disasters. In research survey conducted in 2015, using a multi-stage random sample surveyed 2,500 citizens in 19 local communities. The research results show that there is a statistically significant correlation between previous experience with most of the analyzed variables regarding the perception of preparedness, knowledge, stock and plans: preventive measures, involvement in providing assistance on the ground, the level of preparedness, household water supplies and food, knowledge of safety procedures and ways of evacuation etc. Starting from the research results, the paper presents recommendations for improving household preparedness for natural disasters, given the previous experience of citizens. Key words: security, natural disaster preparedness, previous experiences, Serbia.
62. Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness – Znanje učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu kao element spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave
The consequences of the floods that inundated the territory of Serbia in 2014 indicated a high level of citizen unpreparedness to respond to the situation. Starting from this fact, the basic idea of this research is to examine the level and correlation of certain factors with the students’ knowledge about floods as natural disasters. The aim of the research is a scientific explanation of the correlation between students’ knowledge about floods and these factors. The research consisted of a survey conducted on a sample of 3,498 respondents who make up 8.96% of the students population. The respondents were students from 19 secondary schools, out of a total of 54 in the territory of 11 affected municipalities of the city of Belgrade. The research results suggest that flood related knowledge is influenced by students’ gender, education and employment status of parents, education acquired in school and in the family, while the knowledge of safety procedures for responding to floods is influenced by fear, gender and educational level of parents. These results can be used in creating educational programme strategies to enhancing preparedness for response. Key words: natural disasters, floods preparedness, secondary schools, knowledge, Belgrade. Последице поплава које су захватиле територију Србије током 2014. године указале су на висок ниво неспремности грађана за реаговање у насталој ситуацији. Руководећи се тиме, основна идеја овог истраживања је да се испитају ниво и повезаност одређених фактора са знањем ученика о поплавама као природним катастрофама. Циљ истраживања представља научна експликација повезаности знања ученика о поплавама и споменутих фактора. Истраживање је реализовано методом анкетирања, на узорку од 3.498 испитаника који чине 8,96% популације. Испитаници су ученици 19 средњих школа од укупно 54 колико их има на територији 11 угрожених општина Града Београда. Резултати истраживања указују да на знање о поплавама утичу пол ученика, образованост и запосленост родитеља, едукација у школи и породици, док на познавање безбедносне процедуре за реаговање приликом поплава утичу страх, пол и образованост родитеља. Наведени резултати се могу искористити приликом креирања стратегија образовних програма, што би допринело унапређењу спремности за реаговање у условима природних катастрофа изазваних поплавама. Кључне речи: природне катастрофе, поплаве, средње школе, перцепција, знање, Београд.
63. Ispitavanje stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima – Testing of attitudes and knowledge of students on natural hazards as landslides
U radu sa kvantitativnim istraživačkim pristupom izneti su rezultati ispitivanja stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima. U istraživanju kojim je obuhvaćeno šest osnovnih škola sa područja Beograda anketirano je 476 učenika. Prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je postojanje visokog nivoa znanja (subjektivne i objektivne ocene) o klizištu, kao i da na nivo percepcije o znanju značajno utiču godine starosti i obrazovanje majke. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo stvarnog znanja o klizištu utiču pol i obrazovanost majke. Na svest učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme klizišta utvrđeno je da ne utiču pol, godine starosti, uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, obrazovanost roditelja itd. Polazeći od utvrđenih rezultata, kreatori javnih politika mogu iskoristiti dobijene podatke u cilju osmišljavanja i primene obrazovnih kampanja podizanja svesti i znanja učenika. Ključne reči: prirodne opasnosti, stavovi, škole, anketiranje, klizišta, Beograd. In paper with quantitative research approach are presents the results of tests students’ knowledge and attitudes about natural hazards as landslides. In a study covering six primary schools in Belgrade interviewed 476 students. According to the results, it was found a high level of knowledge (subjective and objective assessments) of the landslide, and that the level of knowledge of perception significantly affected by age and education of mothers. On the other hand, it was found that the level of actual knowledge of the landslide affected by gender and education of the mother. On the awareness of students about the proper course of action during the landslide was found not to affect gender, age, success in school, parents’ employment, education of parents, etc. Starting from the determined result, policy-makers can use the information obtained to design and implement educational campaigns to raise awareness and knowledge of students. Keywords: natural hazards, attitudes, schools, surveys, landslides, Belgrade.
64. Level of citizens preparedness for natural disaster caused by floods in Serbia – Nivo spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Srbiji
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje nivoa, percepcije i znanja građana u vezi spremnosti za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetnaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su građani Republike Srbije su u izvesnoj meri nespremni za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom, imajući u vidu skor od 10,5. Pri tome, ukupan skor za percepciju spremnosti za reagovanje iznosi 0,9 od ukupno 5, zatim 6,51 od ukupno 13 za znanje i na kraju 3,09 od ukupno 15 za posedovanje zaliha. U domaćoj literaturi o prirodnim katastrofama, veoma malo pažnje je pridavano spremnosti građanima za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Upravo stoga, istraživanje ima visoku naučnu i društvenu opravdanost imajući u vidu posledice prirodnih katastrofa po ljude i njihova materijalna dobra. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane s obzirom na njihovu percepciju i znanje kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, nivo, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija, percepcija, znanje. The objective of quantitative research is to examine the level of perception and knowledge of citizens regarding the readiness to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia which occurred or there is a high risk of floods occur, randomly selected sample of nineteen of the 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research performed in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water. In the survey of a test strategy is applied to households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that the citizens of the Republic of Serbia are to some extent reluctant to respond to a natural disaster caused by floods, bearing in mind the score of 10.5. In addition, the total score for the perception of preparedness for response was 0.9 out of 5, then 6.51 out of 13 for knowledge and at the end of 3.09 out of 15 for owning stocks. In the domestic literature on natural disasters, little attention was given to the readiness of citizens to react in such situations. Therefore, the research has a high scientific and social justification taking into account the consequences of natural disasters on people and their material goods. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to react. Research indicates which way should affect the citizens with regard to their perception and knowledge to readiness on a higher level. Key words: natural disasters, floods, citizens, the level of readiness to respond, Serbia, perception, knowledge.
65. Geospatial and temporal distribution of storms
66. THE IMPACT OF AGE ON FLOOD PREPAREDNESS IN SERBIA – Uticaj godina starosti na pripremljenost za reagovanje u Srbiji
The aim of the study was to examine the effect of age on the preparedness of Serbian citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the country. Taking all Serbia’s municipalities into account in which a risk of flooding persists, nineteen of them were selected randomly for the research in which, using a multi-stage random sample survey, 2.500 citizens in areas/households that are more vulnerable in relation to the hundred-year high waters or potential risk were interviewed. The research results indicated that there was a statistically significant correlation between the age of respondents and a number of variables associated with the preparedness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster. The research originality lies in the fact that in Serbia the research of examining the state of citizens’ preparedness to respond to a disaster has never been conducted. The results can be used to create a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond to sudden environmental changes. The research indicated the way of Serbian citizens’ response with regard to their ages in order to raise the preparedness to a higher level. Keywords: Natural Disasters, Flood Preparedness, Citizen Preparedness, Age, Citizens, Serbia.
67. Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera – The impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera u cilju smanjena posledica od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja navedenih faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera. U istraživanju sprovedenom u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da je utvrđena statistički značajna povezanost demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora sa preduzimanjem preventivnih mera. Naime, ispitanici muškog pola i ispitanici starosti od 58 do 68 godina u većem procentu preduzeli su preventivne mere u odnosu na ispitanike ženskog pola i ispitanke starosti od 28 do 38 godina itd. Dobijeni rezultati mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje stanja preduzimanja preventivnih mera u cilju smanjenja posledica od nastalih prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, demografski, socio-ekonomski, psihološki, preventivne mere. The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures for the reduction of consequences of natural disasters caused by flood. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication of the impact of those factors on preventative measures. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that the significant association of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with taking preventive measures. The male respondents and respondents aged 58 to 68 years in higher percentage taken as preventive measures in respect of female respondents and examined persons age 28 to 38 years and so on. The results could be used for improving the situation of taking preventive measures to reduce the consequences of natural disasters caused by the resulting flood. Key words: security, natural disaster, demographic, socio-economic, psychological, preventive measures.
68. The relationship between educational level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters – Povezanost nivoa obrazovanja i pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama
This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the relationship between educational level and preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood. Starting from the local communities in Serbia that are vulnerable to flooding, 19 of them were selected randomly out of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade. In survey research conducted in 2015, which included 2,500 respondents it was applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship between educational level and the following variables: preventive measures; financial funds; engaged in the field; engaged in a reception center; visiting to flooded areas; heavy rains; river level rise; and the level of preparedness, supplies in the home; radio-transistor; flashlight; shovel; hack; apparatus for firefighting; supplies in the car; first aid kit in the home and so on. On the other hand, there is no relationship with variables: media reports, information in religious community, on television, education on radio, informal education system. The research results can be used to improve citizen preparedness to respond to disasters caused by flooding. The survey set out recommendations for increasing the level of preparedness to respond in such situations with regard to the educational level of citizens. Key words: security, natural disasters, floods, citizens, preparedness
69. Uticaj udaljenosti naselja od reke
70. Prirodne katastrofe kao činioci ugrožavanja bezbednosti
71. Fear and floods in Serbia: citizens preparedness for response to natural disasters – Strah i poplave u Srbiji: spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe
Последице пoплaвa кoje су зaдeсилe пoдручje Србиje у тoку 2014. укaзaлe су нa вeoмa низaк стeпeн спрeмнoсти стaнoвништвa зa рeaгoвaњe у прирoдним кaтaстрoфaмa. Управо стога, предмет квантитативног истраживања представља испитивање утицаја страха на спремност грађана за реаговање на природну катастрофу изазвану поплавом у Републици Србији са циљем научне експлинације природе такве повезаности. Имајући у виду све локалне заједнице у Србији у којима се догодила или постоји висок ризик да се догоди поплава, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих деветанест од укупно 150 општина и 23 града и града Београда. У одабраним локалним заједницама истраживање се обавило у оним деловима који су били најугроженији у односу на висину воде или потенцијални ризик. У анкетном испитивању спроведеном у току 2015. године којим је обухваћено 2500 испитаника била је примењена стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка. Резултати истраживања указују да грађани који имају страх од поплава у односу на грађане који га немају, у већем проценту познају безбедносне процедуре поступања; предузели су превентивне мере; истичу да још увек нису спремни за реаговање, али планирају да то ураде у наредних 6 месеци; евакуисали би се на вишим спратовима куће; истичу да их је неко у породици едуковао о поплавама. Супротно томе, грађани који немају страх не раде ништа да би припремили себе за реаговање у таквим ситуацијама, сигурни су у сопствене способности да се изборе с последицама поплаве итд. Оригиналност истраживања огледа се у чињеници да у Србији није никада спроведено истраживање којим би се испитало стање спремности грађана за реаговање. Резултати истраживања се могу искористити приликом креирања стратегија за унапређење нивоа спремности грађана за реаговање. Истраживање указује на који начин треба утицати на грађане с обзиром на страх од поплава како би се спремност подигла на виши ниво. Кључне речи: природне катастрофе, поплава, грађани, пол, спремност за реаговање, Србија SUMMARY: The consequences of the floods that had affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing who do not have the fear are not doing anything to prepare themselves to react in such situations, they are confident in their own abilities to cope with the consequences of floods, etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia there has never been conducted a research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. KEYWORDS: natural disasters, floods, citizens, gender, preparedness for response, Serbia
72. NATURAL DISASTER RISK INSURANCE AND REDUCTION – ОСИГУРАЊЕ И СМАЊЕЊЕ РИЗИКА ОД ПРИРОДНИХ КАТАСТРОФА
The number of natural disasters is increasing and their consequences are increasingly devastating. In some countries there is a mandatory insurance against natural disasters caused by flooding, while in Serbia this is still in its beginning. Therefore, this paper presents the results of quantitative research of correlation between demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens and property insurance against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. The survey was conducted in 2015 and on that occasion it was randomly selected 19 local communities in which 2,500 persons were interviewed. At the same time, the survey strategy was applied in households using a multi-stage random sample. Results of descriptive statistical analysis indicate that only 8% of respondents have insured their property against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods while 86.6% did not do so. Chi-square test (x2) of independence showed a statistically significant correlation between insurance and demographic characteristics of respondents – gender, age, level of education, success in high school and some socio-economic characteristics – employment, marital status and home distance from the river. On the other hand, there was no statistically significant relationship between insurance and amount of household income. The originality of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical knowledge in the field of reducing the risk of natural disasters. The research results have unambiguous scientific and social importance which is reflected in the abundance of new data that can be used for the purpose of comparison with the results of other studies in the world and designing the strategy of encouraging citizens to insure their property. The presented results represent a segment of a wider research into citizen preparedness to respond to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Key words: security, natural disasters, risk reduction, insurance, citizens, demographic, socio-economic. Апстракт: Број природних катастрофа је у порасту и њихове последице су све разорније. У појединим земљама постоји обавезно осигурање од последица природних катастрофа изазваних поплавом, док је у Србији то још у зачетку. Управо стога, у раду су изнети резултати квантитативног истраживања повезаности демографских и социо-економских карактеристика грађана и осигурања имовине од последица природних катастрофа изазваних поплавом у Републици Србији. Истраживање је спроведено у току 2015. године и том приликом методом случајног узорка одабрано је 19 локалних заједница у којима је анкетирано 2500 грађана. При томе, примењена је стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка. Резултати дескриптивне статистичке анализе указују да је само 8% испитаника осигурало своју имовину од последица природних катастрофа изазваних поплавом док 86,6% то није учинило. Хи квадрат тестом (x2) независности утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност осигурања са демографским карактеристикама испитаника – пол, године старости, ниво образовања, успех у средњој школи и одређеним социо-економским карактеристикама – запосленост, брачни статус и удаљеност домаћинства од реке. Са друге стране, није утврђена статистички значајна повезаност осигурања са висином прихода домаћинства. Оргиналност истраживања огледа се у унапређењу теоријског фонда знања из области смањења ризика од природних катастрофа. Резултати истраживања имају недвосмислен научни и друштвени значај који се огледа у пружању обиља новостворених података који се могу искористити у циљу компарације са резултатима других истраживања у свету и конципирању стратегије подстицања грађана да осигурају своју имовину. Изнети резултати представљају један сегмент обимнијег истраживања спремности грађана за реаговање у природној катастрофи изазваној поплавом у Републици Србији. Кључне речи: безбедност, природне катастрофе, смањење ризика, осигурање, грађани, демографске, социо-економске.
73. ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK (ESMF) FOR FOSTERING ENVIRONEMTNAL PROTECTION AND SECURITY IN DRINA RIVER BASIN RIPARIAN COUNTRIES
The transboundary nature of the Environmental issues is recognized as a fact, as in Science, so in practice and in politics. On a global level efforts are being made towards making the Communities resilient on Natural Hazards and Catastrophes that arises from them. This is most due of the fact that the Political borders between states are absolutely irrelevant for the Geography and the Natural processes that happens on Earth. One of the most challenging processes that the Human race is facing is the Climate change issue. Also, the level of drinking water, and most of all, the Water management which is being divvied between two or more states is one of the most common mentioned argument towards the understanding of the Environmental Security Doctrine. Thus, meaning that the access to drinking water especially as a result of water management of another Country could be a reason even for war. That is why this paper tries to answer some of the questions that arises from the fostered international waterway management between three Countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB), through the West Balkans Drina River Basin Management (WBDRBM) actions. These countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB) undoubtedly must strengthen the capacity to plan and implement integrated, cooperative management of the trans-boundary Drina River Basin (DRB) and address climate change adaptation throughout the DRB – based on “global best practices” and within the framework of integrated water resource management (IWRM) involving extensive stakeholder consultations to ensure adequate public participation. The two main questions that this paper is trying to answer are: – The need for Multi-state cooperation to balance conflicting water uses in trans-boundary Drina waters is enhanced, while climate adaptation measures in policy and planning frameworks is mainstreamed. – A shared vision and technical cooperation frameworks agreed with sustainable financing identified, including a strategic action plan for more sustainable and balanced investments, including identified investments that would be the subject of the GEF Drina follow-up actions.
74. Influence of Income Level on Citizen Preparedness for Response to Natural Disasters
The aim of quantitative research is to examine the influence of income level on the citizen preparedness for response to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where occurred or there is a high risk of flood occurrence, nineteen of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were randomly chosen. In selected communities the research was performed in those areas that were most affected in relation to the water level or potential risk. The survey applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicated that the citizens who had income above RSD 90,000 at the household level, in a higher percentage took preventive measures, they know what floods are and know the safety procedures. On the other hand, citizens who have income below RSD 25,000 are not yet prepared, or intend to take certain measures in the next 6 months. The originality of the research stems from the fact of unexamined influence of income level on citizen preparedness. The research results can be used when creating strategies to improve the preparedness of citizens for response. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that Serbia has not examined the influence of income level on preparedness of citizens to respond. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizen preparedness for response with regard to the level of citizen incomes.
75. Evacuation in natural disaster – Evakuacija u prirodnim katastrofama
The monograph is the result of a quantitative survey on the evacuation of citizens in natural disasters caused by floods (hereinafter referred to as natural disasters). The aim of the monograph is to test citizens’ perceptions on consent and a method of evacuation with special emphasis on familiarity with directions of movement (routes) and nearby gathering points, acceptance places and areas of deployment for the purposes of evacuation. In addition, the authors examine the impact of demographic (gender, age, level of education, success in high school and parenthood), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status, military duty and distance from house/apartment), and psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception, motivation, and level of religiosity) of citizens on the aforementioned dimensions of evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods. For the purposes of the survey, we randomly selected 19 communities of 150 municipalities, 23 cities and the City of Belgrade where a flood occurred or there is a risk of flooding. It is significant to note that empirical survey covered urban and rural communities in different parts of Serbia: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Batočina, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac and Užice. The survey was carried out by application of interviewing strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. On this occasion, data were collected on different aspects of the evacuation and also on demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens. Arranged, classified and processed data were analyzed using several techniques: calculation of the frequency of certain responses in total number of answers, calculation of the percentage of specific responses in total number of responses and using Chi-squared test of independence (χ2) we found statistically significant differences between compared groups or statistically significant relationship between some responses. In addition, we used the One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the Independent samples T-test. Given the experience of the Republic of Serbia regarding the present difficulties in the implementation of the evacuation of citizens from flooded areas, it can be said that the monograph has original scientific and social significance. Taking into account the quantity and quality of the structure of the sample, the results presented in the monograph can be generalized to the entire population. On the other hand, leaving aside the effort and extensive results presented in the monograph, a number of survey questions regarding evacuation need to be problematized. The survey results can have serious implications for an improved implementation of evacuation in natural disasters caused by flooding. As such, they will present the basic corpus of knowledge in future studies on the evacuation of citizens in natural disasters caused by floods. Key words: 1. security 2. natural disasters 3. citizens 4. evacuation 5. consent to be evacuated 6. familiarity with directions of evacuation 7. awareness of nearby gathering points 8. demographic factors 9. socio-economic factors 10. psychological factors Апстракт: Moнографија представља резултат квантитативног истраживања о евакуацији грађана у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама (у даљем тексту: природне катастрофе). Предмет рада огледа се у испитивању перцепције грађана о пристанку на евакуацију и начину њеног спровођења, са посебним освртом на познавање праваца кретања (путева) и оближњих зборних места, места прихвата и рејона размештаја за потребе евакуације. Поред тога, аутори испитују и утицај демографских (пол, године, ниво образовања, успех у средњој школи и родитељство), социо-економских (запосленост, висина прихода, брачни статус, регулисаност војне обавезе и удаљеност куће/стана од реке) и психолошких карактеристика (страх, претходно искуство, перцепција ризика, мотивисаност и ниво религиозности) грађана на споменуте димензије евакуације у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. За потребе реализације истраживања, статистичком методом и методом искуствене генерализације стратификоване су локалне заједнице у Републици Србији са високим и ниским ризиком настанка поплава. На тај начин добијен је стратум, односно популација, који су чинили сви пунолетни становници локалних заједница у којима се догодила поплава, или постоји ризик да се догоди. Из тако добијеног стратума, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих 19 од укупно 154 у којима је индикована угроженост или потенцијална угроженост од поплава. Истраживањем су обухваћене следеће локалне заједнице: Обреновац, Шабац, Крушевац, Крагујевац, Сремска Митровица, Прибој, Баточина, Свилајнац, Лапово, Параћин, Смедеревска Паланка, Јаша Томић, Лозница, Бајина Башта, Смедерево, Нови Сад, Краљево, Рековац и Ужице. За реализацију анкетног испитивања одабрана је стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка. Том приликом прикупљени су подаци о различитим димензијама евакуације, као и о демографским, социо-економским и психолошким карактеристикама грађана. Сређени, класификовани и обрађени подаци анализирани су коришћењем више техника: одређивање учесталости одређеног одговора у укупној маси одговора испитаника, одређивање процента учешћа одређеног одговора у укупној маси одговора и Хи-квадрат тестом независности (χ2) утврђивале су се статистички значајне разлике између група које су се поредиле, или су се утврђивале статистички значајне везе између појединих одговора. Поред тога, коришћена је једнофакторска анализа варијансе и Т-тест независних узорака. С обзиром на искуства Републике Србије у погледу потешкоћа током спровођења евакуације грађана из поплављених подручја, може се рећи да монографија има оригиналан научни и друштвени значај. Узимајући у обзир квантитет и квалитет структуре узорка, резултати представљени у овом раду могу се генерализовати на целокупну популацију становништва. Са друге стране, остављајући по страни уложени труд и обимне резултате изнете у монографији, велики број истраживачких питања из области евакуације остаје да се проблематизује. Резултати истраживања могу имати озбиљне импликације на унапређење спровођења евакуације у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. Као такви, свакако ће представљати и основни корпус сазнања у будућим истраживањима о евакуацији грађана у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. Кључне речи: 1. безбедност 2. природне катастрофе 3. грађани 4. евакуација 5. пристанак на евакуацију 6. познавање праваца кретања 7. познавање зборних места 8. демографски фактори 9. социо-економски фактори 10. психолошки фактори
76. Spremnost gradjana za reagovanje
77. Influence of households distance on flood disaster preparedness in Serbia – Uticaj udaljenosti domaćinstva od reke na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji
The aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of distance households on the preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research was undertaken in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The survey results indicate that: people who live in a households up to 2 km away from sources of potential flooding for the most part taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, thinking about the readiness encourage them heavy rains, they know what’s floods, familiar security response procedures. In contrast, people who live in the household over 10 km away from sources of potential flooding in the slightest degree taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, would be engaged in one of the reception centers for victim assistance floods, to reflect on the readiness encourage them fixed rain. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, households distance, preparedness for response, Serbia. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja udaljenosti domaćinstva (kuće/stana) na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetnaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju: građani koji žive u domaćinstvu udaljenom do 2 km od izvora potencijalne poplave u najvećoj meri preduzeli su preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica, na razmišljanje o spremnosti podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše, znaju šta je poplava, poznaju bezbednosne procedure reagovanja. Suprotno tome, građani koji žive u domaćinstvu udaljenom preko 10 km od izvora potencijalne poplave u najmanjoj meri preduzeli su preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica, angažovali bi se u nekom od prihvatnih centara za pružanje pomoći žrtvama poplave, na razmišljanje o spremnosti podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije nikada sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje na posledice poplava. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane s obzirom udaljenost njihovog domaćinstva (kuće/stana) od reke kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, udaljenost domaćinstva, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija.
78. The fear of natural disaster caused by flood
The subject of quantitative research is a determination of fear level of natural disaster caused by flood and examination its relationships with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation relationships nature of these characteristics and fear. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. According to the survey, 49.7% of respondents said they feel fear, 16.1% were not sure, and 33.2% do not feel the fear of natural disasters caused by flooding. In addition, the results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the fear to sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, income level, swimming abilities and the type of ownership of the facility in which to live, until such a relationship does not exist with level of religiosity and success in high school. Social and scientific justification of the research arising from the necessity to examine the situation and the level of citizens’ fear of natural disaster caused by flood with a view to taking some proactive measures aimed to offset the fear by taking certain measures of preparedness to react in such situations. The research results might be used in planning the psychological help and support to citizens in the stages of preparation, response and recovery from natural disasters.
79. Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters caused by floods – Uticaj roditeljstva na pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama
In this paper that presents the quantitative study, authors examined the influence of parenthood on the citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, 19 of these were randomly selected. In selected municipalities the research was undertaken in those areas and households that have been or are potentially the most vulnerable in relation to the level of high water with the use of a multi-stage random sample. In the research it was applied test method based on the technique of interviewing. The research results indicate that heavy rains encourage parents in higher percents to think about preparedness for responding in relation to citizens who are not parents. Parents to a greater extent as the reasons for not taking preventive measures point out that their assistance in this matter would not mean much, that they expected that in actions of protection and rescue primarily would be engaged citizens from flood-affected areas, then they know the safety procedures for response and they would be to a greater extent evacuated in friends’ places, etc. In domestic theory on disasters, there has been an insufficient number of experimental researches, while at the same there are no papers on the relationship between parenting and the preparedness of citizens to respond. Thus, the practical aim of the research was to contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods. Namely, the research indicates the way how should influence on parents in order to raise preparedness for response to a higher level.
80. Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija šumskih požara
Шумски пожари представљају једну од најзначајнијих опасности савремене цивилизације чије проучавање захтева сложен, свеобухватан и мултидисциплинаран приступ. Последице шумских пожара често су разорне по живот, здравље и имовину људи, али и по безбедност државе и читаве међуародне заједнице. У том смислу, ради ефикасније заштите и спречавања озбиљног поремећаја функционисања друштва, односно великих људских, материјалних и еколошких губитака који превазилазе способност погођеног друштва да се избори са ситуацијом, односно стањем природне катастрофе, потребно је свеобухватно истражити наведени природни феномен. У овом чланку тумаче се и објашњавају форма, последице, временски и геопросторни распоред испољавања шумских пожара. Користећи међународну базу података о природним катастрофама Центра за истраживање епидемиологије катастрофа (CRED) са седиштем у Бриселу, уз подршку програма за статистичку анализу (SPSS) и метода тематске картографије, покушали смо да укажемо на број, трендове, последице, временску и геопросторну дистрибуцију шумских пожара у периоду од 1900. до 2013. године, као и на потребу адекватног одговора друштва на ту врсту природне катастрофе. Кључне речи: безбедност, ванредне ситуације, природне ката- строфе, шумски пожари, статистичка анализа
81. Natural disaster and education – references
82. Interventno-spasilacke sluzbe u VS
83. Upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim požarom – Risk management in emergency situations caused by fires
84. Kvalitativno istraživanje pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama – Qualitative research of citizens preparedness for natural disasters
The paper presents the results of qualitative research on the readiness of citizens in Serbia to respond to natural disasters caused by the flood. The study used the recommended intentional sample and interviews were conducted with persons who are from the area of local communities at risk of flooding. The sample included ten participants from Loznica, Šabac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Sečanj, Novi Sad, Lapovo and Rekovac who were asked an identical set of basic questions, after which the discussions were directed according to estimates of their interest, sincerity, and seriousness. The results of the conducted research allow gaining more insight into how much citizens are willing to respond and to create a broader picture of the relationship that citizens have towards the obligation of preparing for natural disasters. Key words: natural disaster, flood, perception, knowledge, supplies, stock, interview, Serbia. U radu su izneti rezultati kvalitativnog istraživanja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom u Srbiji. U istraživanju je korišćen preporučeni namerni uzorak i intervju je obavljen sa informantima sa područja lokalnih zajednica ugroženih poplavom. Uzorkom je obuhvaćeno deset učesnika iz Loznice, Šapca, Sremske Mitrovice, Priboja, Batočine, Sečnja, Novog Sada, Lapova i Rekovca. Učesnicima je postavljen identičan set osnovnih pitanja, nakon čega su razgovori bili usmeravani shodno procenama zainteresovanosti, iskrenosti i ozbiljnosti. Rezultati sprovedenog istraživanja omogućavaju sticanje kvalitetnijih uvida u spremnost građana za reagovanje i stvaranje šire slike o odnosu koji građani imaju prema obavezi pripremanja za prirodne katastrofe.
85. Procena rizika u sprečavanju izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama – Risk assessment in preventing the execution of crimes with explosive materials
Explosive material is very convenient mean for causing technical and technological accidents, which often contain elements of certain criminal acts that endanger the health and lives of people, property and the environment. Explosive material isjust one sort of dangerous material or substance, which clearly indicates the degree of their danger and destructive power during their detonation. Considering this, in this monograph the content related to the concept and division of dangerous explosive material is mentioned an discussed first and then the concept and types of explosive material, with special emphasis on the characteristics and basic activities with hazardous substances (production, trade, transport and storage ) which are important for the assessment of risk to commit the offenses. In this context, based on the research results, measures of protection and control in production are presented, according to place, transport and storage of explosive materials in terms of their importance for the elimination of the causes and recognizing risks of committingthe criminal offenses by using explosive substances and material. By analysing the methods of committing crimes using explosive materials, which is of importance for risk identification and analysis, I came up with classifying such offenses into three main groups. Thus, in the first group there are offences that can be made by using explosive material, but without its detonation, while the second group consists of offences whose execution involves the activation of explosive material. The third group includes offences which by definition do not include specific means of execution, or, among other means, can be executed by explosive material, when the execution includes an explosion of an explosive substance or material. As part of the risk assessment of committing criminal offenses an adequate attention is paid to the importance of risk assessment in the field of prevention, i.e. prevention of offenses where explosive substances are used. This segment of the research, logically, starts with the concept and classification of risk and risk assessment methodologies for committing offenses in basic activities with explosive materials, to presenting content related to specific methods that can be used for estimating the risk of committing of these crimes. Given the importance of risk assessment in the field of dealing with explosive material, in addition to national legal regulations and standards, an analysis of international laws and standards was carried out which is important not only for prevention, but also for the suppression of criminal offenses that are committed using explosive material. Such detailed analysis points tocertain shortcomings in the regulation of explosive and other hazardous materials from the impact of taking the preventative measures in order to prevent technical and technological accidents caused by explosive material, especially those which due to their scale of usage are considered as criminal offences,and because of that a comparative analysis of the level of harmonisation of national legislation with European law in this area was carried out. Police primarily actsin repressive way, and also has an important role in the prevention of crimes that are committed byusing explosive material, and therefore it is pointed that there is a possibility for the police and the Department for Emergency Situationsto take actions in the field of risk assessment of criminal offenses that are committed or can be committedby using some of the explosive material. From the aspect of more effective preventive action, the thing that is especially emphasisedis the weaknesses of the classic reactive concept of the policing in relation to the benefits of proactive policing and it is pointed to the necessity and advantages of timely and complete cooperation between the police and the Department for Emergency Situations, as well as their cooperation with other entities. Active and mutual cooperation between the police, the Department for Emergency Situations, the public prosecutor’s office, companies and other entities is of huge importance for effective prevention of criminal offences that can be committed by explosive material. In order to successful identifythe risk of committing the offenses where explosive material is used and more efficiently take measures towards the elimination or reduction of such risks, it is pointed to the possibility of preventive policing after the offense was committedby explosive material. Експлозивне материје су веома погодно средство за изазивање техничко-технолошких удеса који веома често садрже елементе одређених кривичних дела којима се угрожава здравље и животи људи, материјална добра и животна средина. Есплозивне материје су једна врста опасних материја, што недвосмислено указује на степен њихове опасности и разорне моћи приликом њиховог активирања. Имајући то у виду, у монографији се прво и износе садржаји који се односе на појам и поделу опасних материја, а потом на појам и врсте експлозивних материја, са посебним освртома на карактеристике и основне делатности са опасним материјама (производња, промет, транспорт и смештај) од значаја за процену ризика извршења кривичних дела. У том контексту, на основу резултата спроведених истраживања, презентиране су мере заштите и надзора у производњи, проместу, транспорту и складиштењу експлозивних материја с аспекта њиховог значаја за oтклањање узрока и идентификацију ризика извршења кривичних дела експлозивним материјама. Анализирајући начине извршења кривичних дела експлозивним материјама, што је од значаја за идентификацију ризика и њихову анализу, произашла је и класификација таквих кривичних дела у три основне групе. Тако, у прву групу спадају кривична дела која се могу извршити употребом експлозивне материје, али без њеног активирања, док другу групу чине кривична дела чије извршење подразумева активирање експлозивне материје. У трећу групу спадају кривична дела која у свом опису не садрже конкретна средства извршења, али, поред осталих средстава, могу да буду извршена и експлозивним материјама, при чијем извршењу такође долази до експлозије експлозивне материје. У склопу процене ризика извршења кривичних дела одговарајућа пажња је посвећена значају процене ризика у домену превенције, односно у спречавању извршења кривичних дела експлозивним материјама. Овај сегмент истраживања, сасвим логично, полази од појма и класификације ризика и методологије процене ризика извршења кривичних дела у основним делатностима са експлозивним материјама, па до презентирања садржаја који се односе на конкретне методе које се могу користити у процени ризика извршења ових кривичних дела. Полазећи од значаја процене ризика у домену рада са експлозивним материјама, поред националне правне регулативе и стандарда, извршена је и анализа међународних аката и стандарда од значаја не само за спречавање, већ и за сузбијање кривичних дела која се врше експлозивним материјама. Оваква детаљна анализа указала је и на извесне недостатке у регулативи експлозивних и других опасних материја од утицаја на предузимање превентивних мера у циљу спречавања техничко-технолошких удеса изазванх експлозивним материјама, посебно оних тежих који представљају и извршење кривичних дел, па је и уследила компаративна анализа усклађености националног законодавства са европским правом у овој области. Полиција која делује пре свега репресивно, има и значајну улогу у спречавању кривичних дела која се врше експлозивним материјама, па је стога и указано на могућности деловања полиције и Сектора за ванредне ситуације у домену процене ризика извршења кривичних дела која се врше или се могу извршити употребом неке од експлозивних материја. С аспекта ефикаснијег превентивног деловања, посебно су потенциране слабости класичног реактивног концепта деловања полиције у односу на предности проактивног деловања и указано на нужност и предност благовремене и потпуне сарадње полиције и Сектора за ванредне ситуације, као и на њихову сарадњу са другим субјектима. Активност и међусобна сарадња полиције, Сектора за ванредне ситуације, јавног тужилаштва, прфивредних друштава и неких других субјеката је од огромног значаја за ефикасно спречавање кривичних дела која се могу извршити експлозивним материјама. У циљу успешније идентификације ризика извршења кривичних дела експлозивним материјама и ефикаснијег предузимања мера на отклањању и смањењу таквих ризика, указано је и на могућности превентивног деловања полиције након извршеног кривичног дела експлозивним материјама.
86. Bezbednost učenika od posledica prirodnih katastrofa u školskim objektima – Security among students in school buildings during natural disasters
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije učenika srednjih škola o njihovoj bezbednosti u školskim objektima za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Autori koriste metod anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore koji utiču na percepciju bezbednosti učenika. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu, za potrebe ovog istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.063 učenika, što čini 4.67% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se 40,2% učenika oseća bezbedno, 37,8% nije sigurno i 21,8% ističe da se oseća nebezbedno u školskim objektima kada su u pitanju posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Nadalje, rezultati ispitivanja uticaja određenih faktora na percepciju bezbednosti učenika pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost sa promenljivama – pol, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, ostvarena prosečna ocena, dok takva povezanost nije utvrđena sa promenljivama – zaposlenost roditelja, živi sa ocem, sa majkom, dedom i babom. Istraživanje se bazira na područje Beograda, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom području. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija unapređenja bezbednosti učenika u školskim objektima od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, učenici, škola, anketiranje, Beograd. Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research of perception among high school students about their safety in school buildings during natural disasters. The authors use the method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the perception of safety among students. Out of the total population of high school students in Belgrade, for the purpose of this study a sample consisting of 3,063 students was drawn, which makes 4.67% of the population. From a population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools, 13 of them were selected randomly. The research results show that 40.2% of students feel safe, 37.8% are not sure and 21.8% state that feel unsafe in school buildings in terms of the consequences of natural disasters. Furthermore, the research results of the impact of certain factors on the perception of safety among students indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship with variables – sex, mother’s education, father’s education, the average score achieved, whereas such correlation has not been found with variables – employment of parents, living with father, with mother, grandparents. The study is based on the Belgrade area, therefore the findings can be generalized only to the population of high school students in this area. The research results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the safety of students in school buildings against the effects of natural disasters. Key words: safety, natural disasters, students, school, surveying, Belgrade.
87. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ASSESSMENT REACTIONS EFFICIENCY OF POLICE, MILITARY AND FIRE RESCUE UNIT IN NATURAL DISASTER – KOMPARATIVNA ANALIZA OCENE EFIKASNOSTI REAGOVANJA POLICIJE, VOJSKE I VATROGASNO-SPASILAČKIH JEDINICA U PRIRODNIM KATASTROFAMA
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja ocene efikasnosti reagovanja policije, vojske i vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u prirodnim katastrofama. Pri tome, cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja pola, godina starosti, zaposlenosti, nivoa obrazovanja, prethodnog iskustva, roditeljstva i bračnog statusa na ocenu efikasnosti reagovanja. U anketnom ispitivanju u kojem je učestvovalo 2500 građana iz 19 lokalnih zajednica bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je ocena efikasnosti reagovanja vojske viša u odnosu na policiju i vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice. Zatim, na nivou značajnosti od 5% utvrđenja je statistički značajna povezanost ocene efikasnosti reagovanja policije sa prethodnim iskustvom građana, dok su pol, status zaposlenosti, godine starosti i nivo obrazovanja povezani sa ocenom efikasnosti reagovanja vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica. Kada je reč o oceni efikasnosti reagovanja vojske, ona je statistički značajno povezana sa statusom zaposlenosti i nivoom obrazovanja. Implikacije sprovedenog istraživanja odnose se na mogućnost unapređivanja efikasnosti reagovanja navedenih interventno-spasilačkih službi u prirodnim katastrofama. Originalnost istraživanja predstavlja uspostavljanje početne empirijsko-teorijske osnove za bolje razumevanje reagovanja navedenih službi u prirodnim katastrofama. Svakako, iako su učinjeni ozbiljni napori za sveobuhvatno razumevanje ocene efikasnosti reagovanja, veliki broj istraživačkih pitanja ostaje da se aktuelizuje u narednim istraživanjima. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, kvantitativno istraživanje, policija, vojska, vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice, Srbija. Abstract: The paper presents results of quantitative research assessment of efficiency reaction of the police, military and fire-rescue units in natural disasters. Thereby, the goal of quantitative research is scientific explication influence of gender, age, employment, level of education, previous experience, parenting and marital status of the evaluation of efficiency reaction. In the survey of which was attended by 2,500 persons from 19 communities was applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results show that the efficiency rating is higher for military from the police and fire and rescue units. Then, at a significance level of 5% fortifications, statistically significant correlation assess the effectiveness of the police response to the previous experience of citizens, while gender, employment status, age and education levels associated with the assessment of efficiency of reaction of fire and rescue units. When it comes to assess the efficiency of reaction of the army, it was significantly associated with employment status and education level. The implications of the research related to the possibility of improving the efficiency of those emergency response and rescue services in natural disasters. The originality of the research is to establish initial empirical and theoretical basis for better understanding of the services in response to natural disasters. Certainly, although serious efforts were made to assess the effectiveness of a comprehensive understanding of the response, a number of research questions remain to be popular in the future researches. Key words: natural disaster, quantitative research, police, army, fire fighters, Serbia.
88. Uticaj motivisanosti na spremnost građana da reaguju na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom – The Impact of the Level of Motivation on the Preparedness of Citizens of the Republic of Serbia to Respond to Natural Disaster Caused by Flood
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja motivisanosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je dvadeset od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grad Beograd. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje se obavilo u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na to da su apsolutno motivisani zabeležili viši nivo individualne spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave u odnosu na građane koji smatraju da su apsolutno nemotivisani. Suprotno tome, apsolutno nemotivisani građani ne rade ništa kako bi se pripremili za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na način na koji treba uticati na građane, s obzirom na njihovu motivisanost, kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, motivisanost, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija. The objective of the quantitative research was to examine the impact of the level of motivation on the preparedness of citizens to respond to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia affected, or with a high risk to be affected, by flood, twenty of a total of 150 municipalities and 23 cities, as well as the city of Belgrade, were randomly selected. In the selected local communities the research was conducted in those areas that were the most endangered regarding the water level or potential risk. The survey applied the strategy of multi-stage surveying of random sampled households. The research results indicate that those absolutely motivated recorded a higher level of individual readiness to respond to floods as compared to the citizens who believe they are absolutely unmotivated. In contrast, absolutely unmotivated people do nothing to prepare for response. The originality of the research lies in the fact that Serbia has never conducted any research to examine the citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research findings can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research points to the way that should be used to drive the citizens, according to their level of motivation, in order to raise their preparedness to a higher level. Key words: natural disasters, flood, citizens, level of motivation, preparedness to respond, Serbia
89. Influence of employment status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters
Abstract: The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results show that: citizens who are employed, in a higher percentage/greater extent compared to citizens who are not: have taken certain preventive measures aimed at reducing the tangible consequences of floods, would pay funds to an account to help flood victims, would engage in providing help to flood victims in the field, heavy rains make them to think on preparedness for response and water level rise, they engaged in preparations for at least 6 months, do not do anything that would raise the level of preparedness to the next level etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Key words: natural disasters, floods, citizens, employment, preparedness.
90. Утицај демографских фактора на ниво информисаности грађана о надлежностима полиције у природним катастрофама – The influence of demographic factors on the level of citizen awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters
Спроведено истраживање имало је за циљ да утврди природу повезаности демографских карактеристика грађана у Републици Србији и њихове у информисаности о надлежностима полиције у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. Узимајући у обзир све општине у Србији у којима постоји ризик од поплава, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих деветнаест. У одабраним општинама применом вишеетапног случајног узорка анкетиранo je 2500 грађанa у оним деловима и домаћинствима који су угрожени у односу на ниво стогодишње високе воде. Резултати истраживања указују да постоји статистички значајна повезаност испитиваних демографских карактеристика (пол, године старости, ниво образовања и успех у средњој школи) и информисаности грађана о надлежностима полиције у природним катастрофама. Само 22% испитаника је истакло да је информисано о надлежностима полиције у природним катастрофама. Информисаност је највиша у вези надлежности ватрогасно-спасилачких јединица у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавом, при чему су грађани старости од 48 до 58 година у највећој мери информисани о надлежностима полиције. Грађани који имају високо образовање забележили су виши ниво информисаности о надлежностима полиције у односу на грађане са завршеном средњом/четворогодишњом школом. Такође, утврђена је статистички значајна разлика резултата код мушкараца и жена у погледу информисаности. Резултати истраживања се могу искористити за проактивно побољшање информисаности грађана имајући у виду безбедносне импликације по сам рад полиције у таквим ситуацијама. Друштвена и научна оправданост истраживања произилази из неопходности свеобухватне анализе рада полиције у природним катастрофама и његове оцене од стране грађана. Кључне речи: безбедност, природне катастрофе, поплава, демографски фактори, информисаност, полиција. Abstract: The research was aimed to determine the nature of the relationship between demographic characteristics of citizens in the Republic of Serbia and their awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters caused by flooding. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, ninetee were randomly selected. In selected municipalities by using a multi-stage random sample 2,500 citizens were surveyed in those areas and households that are more vulnerable in relation to the level of a hundred year high water. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and success in high school) and the awareness of citizens on the responsibilities of the police in natural disasters. Only 22% of respondents noted that they are informed on the police responsibilities in natural disasters. Awareness is the highest in respect of responsibilities of fire and rescue units in natural disasters caused by flooding, whereby citizens aged 48 to 58 years are best informed on the police responsibilities. Citizens with university degrees showed a higher level of awareness about the police responsibilities compared to the citizens with completed secondary/four-year school. Also, there is a statistically significant difference in the results for men and women in terms of awareness. The research results can be used to proactively improve the awareness of citizens, bearing in mind the security implications for policing itself in such situations. Social and scientific justification of the research stems from the necessity of a comprehensive analysis of police work in natural disasters and its assessment by the citizens. Key words: security, natural disasters, floods, demographic factors, awareness, police.
91. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUCCESS IN SECONDARY SCHOOL AND CITIZENS PREPAREDNESS FOR NATURAL DISASTER
This paper presents the results of quantitative research of relationship between success in secondary school and citizens preparednesss to respond a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Research was conducted in 2015 in 19 municipalities in Serbia where there is a risk of flooding. Research was conducted using the strategy of a survey in households using multi-stage random sample that included 2,500 citizens. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant between certain variables: preventive measures, financial resources, raising the river, level of preparedness, individ. preparedness, household preparedness, community preparedness and etc. The originality of the research stems from the fact unexamined influence success in high school on preparedness of citizens. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizens preparedness to respond with regard to success in secondary school. Кеy words: natural disaster, flood, citizens, success in secondary school, Serbia.
92. The fear of natural disaster caused by flood
The subject of quantitative research is a determination of fear level of natural disaster caused by flood and examination its relationships with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation relationships nature of these characteristics and fear. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. According to the survey, 49.7% of respondents said they feel fear, 16.1% were not sure, and 33.2% do not feel the fear of natural disasters caused by flooding. In addition, the results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the fear to sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, income level, swimming abilities and the type of ownership of the facility in which to live, until such a relationship does not exist with level of religiosity and success in high school. Social and scientific justification of the research arising from the necessity to examine the situation and the level of citizens’ fear of natural disaster caused by flood with a view to taking some proactive measures aimed to offset the fear by taking certain measures of preparedness to react in such situations. The research results might be used in planning the psychological help and support to citizens in the stages of preparation, response and recovery from natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disaster, citizens, fear, floods, demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Sažetak: Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa straha od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ispitivanje njegove povezanosti sa demografskim i socioekonomskim karakteristikama građana. Cilj takvog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplinacija prirode povezanosti navedenih karakteristika i straha. U cilju realizacije istraživanja, metodom slučajnog uzorka, odabrano je devetnaest lokalnih zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Tom prilikom, bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Sudeći po rezultatima istraživanja, 49,7% ispitanika ističe da oseća strah, 16,1% nije sigurno, i 33,2% ne oseća strah od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom. Pri tome, rezultati ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost straha sa polom, godinama starosti, obrazovanjem, bračnim statusom, statusom zaposlenosti, visinom prihoda, plivačkim sposobnostima i vrstom vlasništva nad objektom u kojem se živi, dok takva povezanost ne postoji sa nivom religioznosti i uspehom u srednjoj školi. Društvena i naučna opravdanost istraživanja proizilaze iz neophodnosti ispitivanja stanja i nivoa straha građana od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom sa ciljem preduzimanja određenih proaktivnih mera usmerenih ka kompenzaciji straha kroz preduzimanje određenih mera spremnosti za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti u koncipiranju psihološke pomoći i podrške građanima u fazama pripreme, odgovora i oporavka od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, građani, strah, poplave, demografske i socio ekonomske karakteristike.
93. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS RELATED TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND MEASURING THE RESILIENCE OF THE COMMUNITIES BEFORE DISASTERS HAPPENS – ESTABLISHING PROPOSAL VARIABLES
Design/methodology/approach: The paper seeks to answer to the fundamental question about the Natural disasters and their unimpeded existence no matter the preferences of Man, their characteristics, some theoretical observations about the consequences from the Natural disasters, the suitable models for Natural Disaster Management, and, in the end, the Model for measuring the Resilience of the Community according to the place is presented. The paper is divided into 6 parts: 1. Introduction that observes the basic theoretical ground for the material in the paper. Then comes the four major parts: 2. About Natural disasters; 3. Consequences from Natural disasters; 4. Natural disasters Management; 5. Some considerations about determination on the Variables for measuring the resilience based on the location; 6. The model for measuring the resilience according to place; and 5. Final observations and recommendations. The paper is based on qualitative approach. Namely, based on Literature review the Authors had made the overview of the theoretical findings related to the basic questions and the conceptual determination of the meaning on Natural disasters, the consequences that they made, their management, and the proposed variables for measuring the resilience based on cited model, but also express their own concrete suggestions for amending this model. Findings: Scientific review of the knowledge related to Natural disasters and the proposal of an amended model for determining variables for measuring resilience of the communities according to place. Research limitations/implications: The presented model for determination of the resilience of the communities according to place should be implemented designing a questionnaire and a conducted survey. Not having practical data in this manner represents research limitation. However, this proposal should open a debate in order to formulate model that will be the most applicable in the contemporary societies (at least on regional level). Key words: Natural disaster; Community; Resilience; Sustainability.
94. Analysis factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about epidemics – Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o epidemijama kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o epidemijama. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o epidemijama statistički značajno utiču (p < 0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, obrazovanost oca i majke , uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, edukacija u školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, edukacija u školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, epidemije, učenici srednjih škola u Beogradu, faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju. The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to the epidemics as a natural disaster and security threat and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors use a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about epidemics. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3.548 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65.561 students), which equates to 5.4% of the population. From population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools randomly selected them is 13th. The research results shows that the students’ knowledge of the epidemics influence: gender, education of father and mother, success in school; the perception: gender, education of father and mother, education in school; and knowledge of safety procedures reactions: age, education of father and mother household with his grandfather, education in family and school. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. Research suggests how to affect secondary school students in order to raise the level of perception and knowledge about epidemics. Keywords: security, natural disaster, epidemics, Belgrade, secondary school students in Belgrade, factors of influence on knowledge and perception.
95. The impact of demographic factors on the expectation of assistance from the police in natural disasters – Uticaj demografskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama
Abstract: In this work, subject of quantitative research is to examine the level and factors influencing the expectation of assistance from the police in the natural disaster caused by floods the Republic of Serbia with the aim of scientific explanations nature of such relationship. The survey was conducted in 19 local communities with risk of flooding. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015 with 2500 citizens. The research results show that there is a statistically significant correlation between the expectations of assistance from the police in the natural disasters caused by floods and sex and age, while it is not determined by the level of education and success in high school subjects. The research results can be used to improve the working of police in natural disasters caused by flooding. Key words: natural disaster, flood, assistance, police, gender, year, level of education, success in secondary school. Сажетак: У раду су изнети резултати квантитативног истраживања нивоа и фактора утицаја на очекивање помоћи од полиције у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавом у Републици Србији са циљем научног објашњења природе такве повезаности. Истраживање је обављено у 19 општина у Србији у којима постоји ризик од настанка поплава. Истраживање је реализовано применом стратегије анкетног испитивања у домаћинствима коришћењем вишеетапног случајног узорка којим је обухваћено 2500 грађана. Резултати истраживања указују да постоји статистички значајна повезаност очекивања помоћи од полиције са полом и годинама старости, док она није утврђена са нивоом образовања и успехом у средњој школи. Оргиналност истраживања произилази из успостављених почетних основа за унапређење рада полиције у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама у Србији. Кључне речи: природна катастрофа, поплава, очекивање помоћи, полиција, пол, године, ниво образовања, успех у средњој школи.
96. Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters
Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the near future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001 (IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees in the 20th century, although climate warming was not uniform neither spatially nor temporally, as was indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures occurred due to changes in climate, cause more and more attention lately as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of cases of extreme temperatures. In this regard, in order to effectively protect and response to emergencies caused by harmful temperature extremes, it is necessary among other things to investigate comprehensively mentioned natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be an analysis of climate change as well as form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperatures. Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), based in Brussels, with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and the method of thematic cartography, we have tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperature in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural hazard. Keywords: security, emergency situations, climate change, extreme temperatures, adaptation, disaster, distribution
97. Police and natural disasters – Policija i prirodne katastrofe
The monograph presents the results of quantitative research of citizens’ perceptions of the police role in natural disasters caused by fl oods in the Republic of Serbia. The subject of monographs relates to examination of citizens’ perceptions of preparedness of the police to respond, citizens’ awareness of competences of the police and expectation of assistance from the police in natural disasters. In addition, there have been examined the infl uences of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens regarding perceptions of preparedness, awareness and expectation of assistance from the police in natural disasters. Starting from the municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of fl ooding, 19 municipalities were selected by random sampling with 2,500 persons surveyed. In selected municipalities, research was carried out in areas that have historically been most at risk from fl ooding. The survey was carried out by application of interviewing strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. Data were collected of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens and their perception of the police in natural disasters. The population consists of all adult residents of the municipalities where there is a risk of flooding. The sample size has been adjusted to geographical and demographic size of municipality. The survey used strategy of interviewing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population of the country. The research results presented in the monograph show how respondents assess preparedness of the police to respond, how much they are informed of the system, and the extent to which they expect help from the police in natural disasters. The monograph does not provide answers to all current issues regarding the police in natural disasters, but it can contribute to creating a more complete picture of its obligations to citizens in such situations. Thus, despite the enormous efforts to shed light on most concerns by a comprehensive approach, a number of research questions remain to actualize. The research results can contribute to the improvement of the police work in natural disasters. Thereby, they can also be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of the police to respond to natural disasters. Indeed, a veritable treasury of data presented in the scientifi c monograph is a reference point for all future research of the place and role of the police in natural disasters.
98. CITIZENS PREPAREDNESS FOR NATURAL DISASTERS CAUSED BY EARTHUAKES IN LOZNICA – Spremnost građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje spremnosti građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom. U anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 154 građana Loznice bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su ispitanici u Loznici zabeležili više srednje vrednosti u odnosu na istraživanje sprovedeno u Japanu kod sledećih kategorija: zalihe (Loznica – M = 2,88; Higasihiama – M = 2,37), specijalne potrebe (Loznica – M = 3,23; Higasihiama – M = 2,57), požar (Loznica – M = 3,24; Higasihiama – M = 2,60), brojevi hitnih službi (Loznica – M = 3,12; Higasihiama – M = 2,47). Sa druge strane, ispitanici u Higasihiamiju zabeležili su više srednje vrednosti kod skupova pitanja: povezanost u lokalnoj samoupravi (Loznica – M = 2,87; Higasihiama – M =2,97) i sklonište (Loznica – M = 2,67; Higasihiama – M = 2,97). T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka utvrđenja je statistički značajna razlika rezultata pola i zaposlenosti ispitanika sa ocenom spremnosti domaćinstva za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u realizaciji kvantitativnog istraživačkog pristupa sa ciljem utvrđivanja nivoa i faktora uticaja na spremnost građana za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Istraživanje ima značajnu naučnu i praktičnu vrednost imajući u vidu implikacije rezultata istraživanja na unapređenje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Takođe, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti u koncipiranju strategija i kampanja usmerenih na unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe izazvane zemljotresom. Ključne reči: prirodna katastrofa, zemljotres, građani, spremnost za reagovanje, Loznica. The aim of quantitative research is to examine citizen preparedness in Loznica to respond to a natural disaster caused by earthquakes. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015. The sample consisted of 154 adult citizens of Loznica. The research results indicate that respondents in Loznica scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: supplies (Loznica – M = 2.88; Higasihiama – M = 2.37), special needs (Loznica – M = 3.23; Higasihiama – M = 2.57), fire (Loznica – M = 3.24; Higasihiama – M = 2.60), emergency numbers (Loznica – M = 3.12; Higasihiama – M = 2.47). On the other hand, respondents in Higasihiama scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: connections in local government (Loznica – M = 2.87; Higasihiama – M = 2.97) and shelter (Loznica – M = 2.67; Higasihiama – M = 2.97). The originality of the research lies in realization of quantitative research approaches aimed to determination of level and impact factors on citizen preparedness to respond in an earthquake. The research has important scientific and practical value, bearing in mind the implications of research results on improving preparedness of citizens to respond. Also, the results of research can be used directly or indirectly in outlining strategies and campaigns aimed at improving citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by an earthquake. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, status of military obligations, preparedness for response.
99. Climate change and national defense – Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana
Kлиматске промене, као један од највећих изазова са којим се суочава савремено друштво, већ дуже време не престају да заокупљају пажњу, како политичке, тако и научне јавности. Варијабилност последица климатских промена, као и њихови ефекти на животну средину и човечанство, налазе се на агенди већине међународних скупова, а дискусије о могућим стратегијама за редукцију њиховог утицаја воде се, како на националном, тако и на међународном нивоу. Ипак, већина оваквих дискусија ограничавала се претежно на ефекте које климатске промене изазивају у животној средини и, у оквиру тога, на ефекте које такве промене могу имати на живот људи у смислу доступности основних намирница и ресурса. Прошло је доста времена док разматрање последица климатских промена није изашло из оквира студија заштите животне средине, а у последњих неколико година посебно је евидентан пораст свести о утицају климатских промена на организовање и функционисање националне одбране, посебно у развијеним земљама. Промењена природа претњи поставља пред систем одбране високе стандарде у погледу капацитета и способности за ефикасан одговор на њих, а чињеница да климатске промене погађају различите сегменте људске цивилизације, што у крајњој линији има утицаја на испуњавање мисије одбране, нужно намеће потребу да се овој проблематици убудуће посвети више пажње. Зато, овај рад има за циљ да, разматрањем неких од доминантних трендова у кретању климатских промена, анализира њихов утицај на функционисање одбране у промењеним амбијенталним условима.
100. Relationship between demographic and environmental factors and knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters
The subject of quantitative research is to examine the connection between demographic (gender, age) and environmental factors (family, school and media) and knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. Bearing in mind the orientation of the research design on determination of character and strength of relationships of demographic and environmental factors with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters, research has explicative goal. The authors use the method of interviewing high school students to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. The study included 3,063 students of secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Results suggest the existence of links between gender, success achieved in school and education of parents and the knowledge of students about natural disasters. The results also indicate that the education of students at school and within family does not affect the knowledge, but affects their perception on natural disasters. Bearing in mind the geographical space of Serbia, the study is based only on the Belgrade region, so the findings can be generalized only to the population of students in this area. Research findings indicate potential ways to influence students to raise level of knowledge about natural disasters to a higher level. Given the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the study results can be used for policies of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. Key words: natural disasters, high schools, knowledge, perception, demographic factors, environmental factors
101. Mogucnosti zloupotrebe nuklearnog oruzja u teroristicke svrhe
102. PHENOMENOLOGY OF NATURAL DISASTERS – FENOMENOLOGIJA PRIRODNIH KATASTROFA – teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija
In the scientific literature, domestic and international, theoretical definition and classification of natural disasters is a very topical issue. Necessity and motivation of authors to establish a concise definition, stems from the need for clear demarcation of a disaster than anything else, and the first since it averages concepts such as hazards, crises and emergency situations. Of course, the interest from the definition arises from the need to describe the field of study and create the conditions for the accumulation of knowledge and theory building. At the same time, researchers in the field of disaster studies, meet with discussions and debates about the demarcation of the conceptual definition of disaster. The research results show that the theoretical definition of natural disasters followed: the social environment within which it was created, a discipline that originated from, purpose, geographical region of origin, etc. When looking at their formation, it is noticed that the first definition given by linguists and that they are largely held specific cultures and languages within which they were made. Over time they have evolved from multilateral changing the world. Many of them, although at first sight contradictory, produced in the same categorical domains. Based on different theoretical and empirical grounds. Also, is not the same as the definition of disaster phenomena or areas of study. Researchers often fall into the trap that the conceptual basis of phenomena such as disaster, replaced explanations as to what does and how society act in such situations. Due to the foregoing, when defining and classification of natural disasters, it is necessary to be very cautious and thorough. In particular, it is necessary to take into account to cover aspects of causes, characteristics and consequences of such a phenomenon. Key words: natural disasters, phenomenology, definition, classification, consequences. Апстракт: У научној литератури, домаћој и светској, теоријско одређење и класификација природних катастрофа представља веома актуелно питање. Неопходност и мотивисаност аутора за успостављање концизних дефиниција произилази из потребе јасног разграничења катастрофа од свега осталог, а најпре од њему сродних концепата као што су опасности, кризе и ризици. Свакако, интерес од дефинисања произилази из потребе да се опише област проучавања и створе услови за акумулацију знања и изградњу теорија. При томе, истраживачи из области студија катастрофа, сусрећу се и са дискусијама и дебатама око разграничења појмовног одређења катастрофа од ванредних ситуација. Резултати истраживања показују да је теоријско одређење природних катастрофа пратило: друштвени амбијент у чијим оквирима је и настало, научну дисциплину из које је потекло, сврху, географски регион настанка итд. Када се посматра њихов настанак, примећује се да су прве дефиниције дате од стране лингвиста и да су оне у великој мери одржавале специфичности културе и језика у склопу кога су и настале. Временом су еволуирале у складу са вишестраним променама у свету. Велики број њих, иако на први поглед противречне, настају у оквиру истог категоричног домена. Почивају на различитим теоријским и емпиријским основама. Такође, није исто дефинисање катастрофе као феномена или области проучавања. Истраживачи често упадају у замку да концептуалне основе феномена као што је катастрофа, замењују објашњењима шта чини и како друштво делује у таквим ситуацијама. Предмет рада представља теоријско одређење и класификација природних катастрофа, са посебним освртом на њене последице. Кључне речи: природна катастрофа, феноменологија, дефиниција, класификација, последице.
103. МОГУЋНОСТИ ЗЛОУПОТРЕБЕ НУКЛЕАРНОГ ОРУЖЈА У ТЕРОРИСТИЧКЕ СВРХЕ И КРИВИЧНОПРАВНА ЗАШТИТА – POSSIBLE ABUSE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY AND CRIMINAL PROTECTION
104. Knowledge and Perception of Secondary School Students in Belgrade about Earthquakes as Natural Disasters – Znanje i percepcija učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o zemljotresima kao prirodnim katastrofama
The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process.
105. Prediction model of effective studies at the Academy of criminalistics and police studies
The paper deals with the connection between the input characteristics of students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies in Belgrade related to the acquired and inherited values and effective studying. Data collection was performed using the questionnaire technique on a sample of 120 students and the logic regression method. The questionnaire comprised 11 closed questions, 10 relating to predictor variables (gender, high school, success in high school, place in which it was finished, going in for sport, respondent’s family and financial situation, whether a member of the family is employed by the Ministry of Interior and the course of studies), and one relating to the criterion variable (studying without repeating years). The results of logic regression showed that the overall model explains between 40.4% and 55.7% of variance in the status of effective studying, and it correctly classified 83.6% of cases. Only five predictor variables provided a unique statistically significant contribution to the model. The paper proved that if a student had a specific set of inherited and acquired characteristics, probability that he/she would study effectively is significantly 1 This paper is the result of the research on project: “ Management of police organization in preventing and mitigating threats to security in the Republic of Serbia “ , which is financed and carried out by the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade-the cycle of scientific projects 2015-2019. 2 increased. The paper proved that higher police education institutions should pay attention to the inherited and acquired characteristics at the entrance examination. Unlike any previous research, the paper deals with desired characteristics modelling implying that the candidate has increased chances to study effectively. Keywords: prediction model, effective study, acquired and inherited values, criminalistic and police studies.
106. Upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim zloupotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje – Risk management in emergency situtations caused by abuse of weapons of mass destruction
107. CITIZENS PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONDING TO NATURAL DISASTER CAUSED BY FLOOD IN SERBIA – SPREMNOST GRAĐANA ZA REAGOVANJE NA PRIRODNU KATASTROFU IZAZVANU POPLAVOM U REPUBLICI SRBIJI
The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Bearing in mind unstudied levels and factors influencing preparedness to respond it was conducted multi-methodical study that included quantitative and qualitative research approach aimed at determining the level and impact of certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of population on their preparedness to respond. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research was undertaken in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. According to the research results: citizens of the Republic of Serbia are to some degree unprepared for responding to natural disasters caused by floods, and their public preparedness index was 10.5 on a scale to 33; 77.4% of them suffered from intangible consequences and 67, 3% of them suffered from tangible consequences caused by flooding; 34% of them were disabled to be at home due to consequences of floods; 49.7% feel while 49.3% do not feel the fear from floods; 23.3% would participate as a volunteer in eliminating the consequences of flooding; 26.6% declare that they are individually are prepared to respond (M=2.98); 28.7% declare that their households are prepared to respond (M=2.98); 77.9% declare they know what a flood is; 22% are familiar with security response procedures; 86.7% would be evacuated in the event of encountering floods; 40.2% declare that they have been educated about floods by someone within family; 26.6% declare they know what to do after an official warning about approaching flood; 24.6% declare they have supplies; 37.2% responded that they have food supplies for 4 days; 26% have a water supplies for 4 days; 17.6% of respondents have a transistor radio, 40% flashlight; 1.3% of respondents have a written plan for responding; 24.5% have copies of financial and other insurance documents in a safe place, etc. When it comes to demographic characteristics of citizens, such as gender, age, level of education, and school performance there is statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and possession of supplies in terms of preparedness for response, while when it comes to variable on whether respondents have or do not have children there is no statistically significant correlation with perception of preparedness to respond; in relation with socio-economic characteristics of citizens, for employment, income, status of military obligations, and distance of household from a river there is a statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and possession of supplies in terms of preparedness to respond; and finally, for psychological characteristics of people – fear, previous experience, perception of risk, level of religiosity and motivation, these is a statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and supplies in terms of preparedness of citizens to respond. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. Research indicates the way how to affect the citizens with respect to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics to raise preparedness on a higher level. As such, it does not give a complete answer to all current issues on preparedness of citizens to respond, but it certainly can contribute in creating a more complete picture of it. Although they made huge efforts to shed light on most concerns in comprehensive approach, we can say that a large number of questions remain to be further investigated. The research results can contribute to improving citizens’ preparedness to respond to such events. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. As such, they represent guidelines for all future research on preparedness for response, bearing in mind the true wealth of information set out in his doctoral dissertation. Key words: security, natural disasters, floods, preparedness for response, perception, knowledge, supplies, demographic characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, psychological characteristics, citizens, Serbia. Последице пoплaвa кoje су зaдeсилe пoдручje Србиje у тoку 2014. гoдинe укaзaлe су нa вeoмa низaк стeпeн спрeмнoсти стaнoвништвa зa рeaгoвaњe у прирoдним кaтaстрoфaмa. Имајући у виду неиспитаност нивоа и фактора утицаја на спремност за реаговање, спрoвeдeнo je мултиметодско истраживање које је обухватило квантитативан и квалитативан истраживачки приступ са циљем утврђивања нивoa и утицaja одређених демографских, социо-економских и психолошких карактеристика грађана нa њихову спремност за рeaгoвaњe. Имајући у виду све локалне заједнице у Србији у којима се догодила или постоји висок ризик да се догоди поплава, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих 19 од укупно 150 општина и 23 града и града Београда. У одабраним локалним заједницама истраживање се обавило у оним деловима који су били најугроженији у односу на висину воде или потенцијални ризик од настанка поплаве. У самом анкетном испитивању била је примењена стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка. Судећи по резултатима истраживања грађани Републике Србије у извесној мери су неспремни за реаговање на природну катастрофу изазвану поплавом, и њихов јавни индекс спремности за реаговање износи 10,5 од укупно могућих 33. Од укупног броја испитаника, њих 77,4% доживело је нематеријалне и 67,3% материјалне последице поплаве; 34% је било спречено да буде у дому услед последица поплава; 49,7% осећа док 49,3% не осећа страх од поплава; 23,3% би као волонтер учествовало у отклањању последица поплава; 26,6% истиче да је индивидуално спремно за реаговање (М = 2,98); 28,7% истиче да је њихово домаћинство спремно за реаговање (М = 2,98); 77,9% истиче да зна шта је поплава; 22% познаје безбедносне процедуре реаговања; 86,7% евакуисало би се у случају наиласка поплавног таласа; 40,2% истиче да их је у породици неко едуковао о поплавама; 26,6% истиче да зна шта треба радити након званичног упозорења о наила-ску поплавног таласа; 24,6% истиче да поседује залихе; 37,2% одговорило је да поседују залихе хране за 4 дана; 26% поседују залихе воде за 4 дана; 17,6% испитаника поседује радио транзистор, 40% батеријску лампу; 1,3% испитаника поседује писани план за реаговање; 24,5% поседује копије финансијских и других осигуравајућих докумената на безбедном месту итд. Када је реч o демографским карактеристикама грађана, као што су пол, године старости, ниво образовања, и успех у школи утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом, знањем и поседовањем залиха у вези спремности за реаговањем, док са променљивом да ли испитаници имају или немају деце није утврђена статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом спремности за реаговање; у вези социо-економских карактеристика грађана, за запосленост, висину прихода, статус регулисане војне обавезе, и удаљености домаћинства од реке утврђена је статистички значајна перцепцију ризика, ниво религиозности и мотивисаност, утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом, знањем и залихама у вези спремности грађана за реаговањем. Oргинaлнoст истрaживaњa oглeдa сe у чињeници дa у Србиjи ниje никaдa спрoвeдeнo истрaживaњe кojим би сe испитaлo стaњe спрeмнoсти грaђaнa зa рeaгoвaњe. Имајући у виду да се истрaживaњe бaзирa нa пoдручje Србиje, зaкључци се мoгу гeнeрaлизoвaти нa цeлoкупну пoпулaциjу становништва. Истрaживaњe укaзуje нa кojи нaчин трeбa утицaти нa грaђaнe с oбзирoм нa њихoве демографске, социо-економске и психолошке карактеристике кaкo би сe спрeмнoст за реаговање на природне катастрофе изазване поплавом пoдиглa нa виши нивo. Као такво, не даје потпун одговор на сва актуелна питања о спремности грађана за реаговање, али свакако може допринети стварању потпуније слике о њој. Иако су учињени огромни напори да се свеобухватним приступом расветли већина недоумица, може се рећи да велики број питања остаје да се и даље истражује. Резултати истраживања могу допринети унапређењу спремности грађана за реаговање на такве појаве. Поред тога, резултати истраживања се мoгу искoристити и приликoм крeирaњa стрaтeгиja зa унaпрeђeњe нивoa спрeмнoсти грaђaнa зa рeaгoвaњe. Као такви, представљаће реперну тачку за сва будућа истраживања о спремности грађана за реаговање на природне катастрофе имајући у виду праву ризницу података који су изнети у докторској дисертацији. Кључне речи: безбедност, природнa катастрофa, поплава, спремност за реаговање, перцепција, знање, залихе, демографске карактеристике, социо-економске карактеристике, психолошке карактеристике, грађани, Србија.
108. INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF PROTECTION AND RESCUE IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS – SYSTEM „NUMBER 112 FOR EMERGENCY CALLS“ ИНТЕГРИСАНИ СИСТЕМ ЗАШТИТЕ И СПАСАВАЊА У ВАНРЕДНИМ СИТУАЦИЈАМА – СИСТЕМ „БРОЈ 112 ЗА ХИТНЕ ПОЗИВЕ“
All member states of the European Union has The Integrated protection and rescue system with „SOS 112“ system, and today this is a technical requirement for countries that are seeking to become EU members. Although this system is regulated by Law on Emergency Situations (2009.) and National strategy (2011.) it has not been implemented in Republic of Serbia. In this article the authors analyze the importance and benefits of this system and the main reason why it is not implemented so far.
109. Uticaj statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji – IMPACT OF THE STATUS OF MILITARY OBLIGATIONS ON PREPAREDNESS FOR FLOOD DISASTER IN SERBIA
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 2500 građana bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su građani koji su regulisali status vojne obaveze preduzeli određene preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica poplave, angažovali bi se na pružanju pomoći žrtvama poplava na, na razmišljanje o spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave, podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše, još uvek nisu spremni, ali nameravaju da to urade u narednih šest meseci itd. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije nikada sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane obzirom na status regulisane vojne obaveze kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo.
110. Prirodne katastrofe i obrazovanje – Natural disaster and education
111. INTEGRATED NATURAL DISASTERS MANAGEMENT – INTEGRISANO UPRAVLJANJE U PRIRODNIM KATASTROFAMA
Озбиљнија систематска проучавања природних катастрофа и могућности управљања њиховим последицама стара су око пола века, што и није зачуђујуће, имајући у виду да су друштвене науке релативно младе. Истраживачи природних катастрофа указују да добро дефинисан и јасан модел управљања представља круцијалан елемент суочавања са последицама природних катастрофа. При томе, када се говори о управљању, најпре се мисли о добро утемељеном формалном систему, односно моделу, који ће јасно дефинисати сваку фазу у таквом процесу. Прегледом одговарајуће стручне литературе, могу се издвојити различити модели управљања природним катастрофама као што су: логички, интегрисани, узрочни и остали. Свакако, имајући у виду свеобухватне анализе ефикасности система управљања, интегрисани приступ управљања природним катастрофама представља водећи модел у државама широм света. Ради се о свеобухватном и интегрисаном приступу који обухвата све врсте природних катастрофа (биосферске, литосферске, атмосферске, хидросферске) и фазе (припрема, ублажавање, одговор и опоравак) управљања. Дакле, то је итеративан процес доношења одлука у вези са превенцијом, одговором и опоравком од природних катастрофа. Као такав обезбеђује шансу заједницама погођеним катастрофама да уравнотеже различите потребе за заштиту живота, имовине и животне средине, као и да размотре начин на који њихове кумулативне акције могу допринети дугорочнијој одрживости погођеног подручја. Слободно се може рећи да су водећи принципи таквог процеса: систематски приступ, партнерство, неизвесност, географски фокус, ослањање на науке и поуздане податке. Имајући у виду значајност имплементације модела интегрисаног управљања природним катастрофама у националне системе заштите и спасавања, предмет рада представља испитивање еволуције, структуре, карактеристика и функционисања интегрисаног управљања природним катастрофама. Такође, посебан осврт се придаје односу између традиционалног и савременог управљања природним катастрофама. Кључне речи: безбедност, ванредне ситуације, природне катастрофе, интегрисано управљање, припрема, ублажавање, одговор, опоравак. More serious systematic studies of natural disaster management capabilities and their consequences are about half a century, which is not surprising, given that social science is relatively young. Researchers of natural disasters indicate that well-defined and clear governance model is a crucial element of dealing with the consequences of natural disasters. In fact, when it speaking about of management, first think of a well-established formal system, or model, that will clearly define each stage in such a process. A review of the relevant scientific literature, we can distinguish different models of natural disasters such as logical, integrated, causal and others. Certainly, given the comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of management, an integrated approach to the management of natural disasters is a leading model in countries around the world. It is a comprehensive and integrated approach that encompasses all types of natural disasters and phases (preparation, mitigation, response and recovery) management. So, it is an iterative process of decision-making in relation to the prevention, response and recovery from natural disasters. As such, it provides a chance for communities affected by disasters to balance the different needs for the protection of life, property and the environment, and to consider ways in which their cumulative actions may contribute to the longer term sustainability of the affected areas. It can be said that the guiding principles of this process: a systematic approach, partnership, uncertainty, geographic focus, relying on science and reliable data. Bearing in mind the importance of implementation models of integrated management of natural disasters in the national system of protection and rescue work is the subject of questioning evolution, structure, characteristics and functioning of the integrated management of natural disasters. In addition, special emphasis is given to the relationship between the traditional and the modern management of natural disasters. Key words: security, emergency situations, natural disasters, integrated management, preparation, mitigation, response, recovery.
112. Factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about natural disasters caused by landslides – Faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim klizištima
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o klizištu kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o klizištu. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o klizištu statistički značajno utiču (p<0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, strah od prirodnih katastrofa, edukacija u porodici i školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, uspeh u školi, život u domaćinstvu sa dedom, edukacija u porodici i školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti.
113. ТHE ROLE OF EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICE IN EMERGENCIES CAUSED BY TERRORISM
Имајући у виду здравствене последице употребе овог оружја од стране терористич- ких група, посебно значајна интервентно-спасилачка служба у отклањању здравстве- них последица насталих таквим нападом, јесте служба хитне медицинске помоћи, као и целокупно медицинско особље. Поред полиције и ватрогасно-спасилачких јединица, наведена служба има кључну улогу у отклањању последица терористич- ких ванредних ситуација. Тренутна појава великог броја настрадалих лица, отежани услови за проналажење и пружање медицинске помоћи, потреба за ограничавањем боравка људи у подручју које је контаминирано итд., умногоме ће искомпликовати рад службе хитне медицинске помоћи која ће се суочити са великим бројем задатака. Управо стога, у раду се анализирају задаци и улога службе хитне медицинске помоћи у терористичкој ванредној ситуацији, са посебним освртом на тријажу и транспорт повређених, као и припрему болнице за пријем повређених са лица места ванредне ситуације. Поред тога, у раду се анализира улога здравствених служби у отклањању здравствених последица терористичких ванредних ситуација у Републи- ци Србији.
114. Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters
115. Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija – Victimization of People by Natural Disasters: Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Consequences
Predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni i materijalna šteta) sa posebnim osvrtom na geofizičke, meteorološke, klimatske, biološke i hidrološke katastrofe koje su se dogodile u svetu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Pri tome, ljudi koji su pogođeni raznovrsnim prirodnim katastrofama se mogu posmatrati kao nevidljive žrtve jer ih država i društvo ne prepoznaju kao žrtve, pa samim tim ne dobijaju adekvatnu zaštitu, pomoć i podršku. Statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na podacima međunarodne baze podataka Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) u Briselu. U okviru vremenske analize raz- matrana je distribucija posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, u intervalima od po deset godina. Istom metodologijom analizirana je geoprostorna distribucija viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama po kontinentima. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama u svetskom geopro- storu u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju na porast broja i ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa. This paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distributions of victimized people (killed, injured, affected and damage) with specific reference to geophysical, meteorological, climatological, biological and hydrological disasters that have occurred in the world of from 1900 to 2013 year. In addition, people affected by the various natural disasters could be classified as invisible victims as they are not recognized as victims either by the state or society, and consequently they do not receive adequate protection, assistance and support. Statistical research was conducted on data from the international database of the Centre for Research on Disaster Epidemiology Disaster (CRED) in Brussels. Temporal analysis examined the distribution and effects of natural disasters on people, at intervals of ten years. The same methodology was adopted for analyses of geospatial distribution of victimized people because of natural disasters by continent. The aim of the research is to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of victimization of people with natural disasters in the world geospace in the period from 1900 to 2013. The survey results clearly indicate an increase in the number and severity of the consequences of natural disasters.
116. Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša kao prirodnih katastrofa – Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Drought as Natural Disaster
As climatological disasters, droughts increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property, creating serious environmental problems including the negative impact on the environment. For these and other reasons, the droughts as a natural disaster are beginning to attract more attention of researchers all over the world who want to better comprehend them in the phenomenological and quantitative terms. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, the most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the drought is the statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of research is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of drought in the world during the period 1900-2013. In addition, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that the first step taken in the form of raw data Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels and then analyzed in the SPSS statistical analysis of data. Within geospatial analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought across continents and countries was considered, with special emphasis on the five most vulnerable countries to the total number and variety of consequences. On the same principle, within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought on annual, monthly and daily basis was examined, with special reference to the five most important in the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). In this sense, for effective and efficient protection and emergency response due to the deleterious effect of drought, it is inter alia stated comprehensively investigate natural phenomena using statistical method and the method of thematic mapping with the objective descriptions consequence, geospatial and timing of the manifestation of drought.
117. Spremnost studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji – Prepadness of students academy of criminalistics and police studies for responding to natural disasters caused by floods in Serbia
Bearing in mind the impossibility of achieving absolute safety from the consequences of natural disasters, as well as the inability of the authorities to all citizens in the short term help, readiness as a concept that is one of the cycles of natural disaster management is particularly important. In addition, it can be said that scientific research is particularly encouraged by insufficiently explained the nature of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their willingness to respond to various natural disasters. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the identification of objective and subjective readiness of students Criminal Police College for responding to a natural disaster caused by the flood. In addition, in order to examine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic and psychological characteristics of students of the Academy’s willingness to respond, using chi-square test. For testing correlation between the continuous variable such as height, weight, age and average rating of readiness will be used Pearson correlation coefficient r. On that occasion he used method of surveying students with the help of an instrument for these purposes and created. Bearing in mind that the students Academy of criminalistics and police studies are formed in groups of years of study we chose a cluster sample. So, we decided that the election of members of the population in the sample does not perform direct care to select an entire group (first year students). More specifically, members of the population consisting of all students Academy of criminalistics and police studies (from the first to the fourth year of study) were not pulled out individually for the sample from the population but pulled out one group (first year students). The sample included 434 students, of which 59.6% male and 40.4% female, with a range of 18 to 22 years, mean age 19:02. The results show that certain elements of preparedness of students for reacting natural disaster caused by the flood of largely influenced by the following variables: gender, father’s education, religiosity and awareness for steštnim effect of flooding. Students showed a higher degree of subjective than objective readiness to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood.
118. FLOODS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA – VULNERABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY
Vulnerability and human security have been changing over time and depended on the physical, social, economic and environmental factors. In modern terms these phenomena have become multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral and dynamic. However, in addition to empirical changes with respect to the nature of security threats, the increase of vulnerability and threatening to human security, there have increased the analytical range in their understanding as well as the institutional changes within the security structures. Many countries have abandoned the attitude that the floods and flash floods as the most important natural hazards can be suppressed or controlled, i.e. that can be fought against or placed under full control. With that regard, the attitude of adoptive management of security and rescue from floods and flash floods becomes more and more prevalent, as well as flood risk adjustment or the principle of “living with floods”. Accepting such attitude, relating cultural values of the society, economy, institutional and functional possibilities for the purpose of mitigating vulnerability and providing human security proved prominent in the Republic of Serbia. The state has taken a series of reform steps in view of recognizing its own physical exposure to food risks. At the same time, after such great floods which endangered a large part of the country’s territory, the country recognized its social-economic weaknesses of the community, as well as the necessity to increase the capacity to mobilize the resources in mitigating vulnerability and facilitating human security. Key words: community, vulnerability, floods, resources, human security.
119. RECOGNITION AND PERCEPTION OF RISKS AND ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS ON THE PART OF THE STUDENT POPULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
The subject of quantitative research in this paper is analysis of the knowledge and the perceptions of students from seven different faculties in different years of study. The authors used quantitative survey method to identify and describe the knowledge and the perceptions about the possible risk and disasters. 382 students from all years of study were examined. The results show that the respondents have a high level of knowledge on natural disasters and that there is a significant difference among students depending mostly on the year of study. There is also a difference in some perceptions between the students from “nonsecurity” and from “security” studies. The limitation of the research refers to the fact that the investigation is based only on students willing to participate in the answering of the questionnaire. Considering the evident lack of risks and hazards related to the Environment in Macedonia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can also be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to risks and hazards related to the Environment.
120. Znanje i percepcija učenika srednje škole u Kraljevu o prirodnim katastrofama – KNOWLEDGE AND PERCEPTIONS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN KRALJEVO PF NATURAL DISASTERS
Quantitative research was conducted in order to determine the perceptions and actual knowledge of secondary school for electrical engineering in Kraljevo, Nikola Tesla about natural disasters. On that occasion used method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students. From the population of secondary technical school in Kraljevo, at random, from each year was chosen by a number of respondents. The results show that the sources of information about natural disasters and their threatening consequences affect the perception of secondary school students. At the same time, the actual knowledge about natural disasters affecting lectures, schools, television and the internet, while considerably less influence video games, radio and stories from family members. Those with no personal experience regarding the threatening consequences of natural disasters in a statistically higher percentage do not know how to recognize a certain natural disasters. Experience immediate family members are not affected to a large extent on the knowledge of natural disasters, with the exception of his father. Bearing in mind the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs.
121. KNOWLEDGE AND PERCEPTIONS OF STUDENTS OF THE ACADEMY OF CRIMINALISTIC AND POLICE STUDIES ABOUT NATURAL DISASTERS
The subject of quantitative research is analysis of the factors influencing the knowledge and perceptions of first year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies about natural disasters. The authors used survey method to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disaster. Of the total number of first-year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies, 360 of them were examined. The results show that respondents have a high level of knowledge on natural disasters and the best knowledge on safety procedures when handling droughts. Limitation of research relates to the fact that the research is based only on the first year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies. Considering the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to natural disasters.
122. Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Drought as Natural Disaster
Суше као климатске катастрофе сваким даном све више угрожавају безбедност људи и њихову имовину, стварајући озбиљне еколошке проблеме међу којима је и негативан утицај на животну средину. Предмет рада је дескриптивна статистичка анализа геопросторне и временске дистрибуције суша у свету током периода 1900-2013. година. При томе, само статистичко истраживање је спроведено на тај начин што су у првом кораку преузети необрађени подаци у виду Еxcel фајла из међународне базе података о катастрофама (CRED) у Бриселу, а затим су анализирани у програму за статистичку обраду података SPSS. У оквиру геопросторне анализе разматрана је дистрибуција укупног броја и последица суша по континентима и државама, са посебним освртом на пет најугроженијих држава према укупном броју и различитим последицама. По истом принципу, у оквиру временске анализе разматрана је дистрибуција укупног броја и последица суша на годишњем, месечном и дневном нивоу, са посебним освртом на пет најзначајнијих година према броју различитих последица (погинули, повређени, погођени, без дома). У том смислу, ради ефективније и ефикасније заштите и реаговања у ванредним ситуацијама изазваним штетним дејством суша, потребно је, између осталог, свеобухватно истражити наведени природни феномен, користећи статистички метод и метод тематске картографије са циљем дескрипције последица, геопросторног и временског распореда испољавања суша.
123. Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama: geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija posledica – The victimization of people by natural disasters: geospatial and temporal distribution
Predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni i materijalna šteta) sa posebnim osvrtom na geofizičke, meteorološke, klimatske, biološke i hidrološke nepogode koje su se dogodile u svetu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Pri tome, ljudi koji su pogođeni raznovrsnim prirodnim katastrofama se mogu posmatrati kao nevidljive žrtve jer ih država i društvo ne prepoznaju kao žrtve, pa samim tim ne dobijaju adekvatnu zaštitu, pomoć i podršku. Statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na podacima međunarodne baze podataka Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) u Briselu. U okviru vremenske analize raz-matrana je distribucija posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, u intervalima od po deset godina. Istom metodologijom analizirana je geoprostorna distribucija viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama po kontinentima. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama u svetskom geopro-storu u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju na porast broja i ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: viktimizacija, prirodne katastrofe, nevidljive žrtve, ljudska i nacionalna bezbednost.
124. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF ALBANIA, MACEDONIA AND MONTENEGRO – КОМПАРАТИВНА АНАЛИЗА НАЦИОНАЛНИХ СТРАТЕГИЈА БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ АЛБАНИЈЕ, МАКЕДОНИЈЕ И ЦРНЕ ГОРЕ
125. The role of private armed forces in traditional security concepts
Посматрано са историјског аспекта, безбедност и одбрана одувек су били задаци којима су се, углавном, бавиле државне институције (полиција, војска и обавештајне службе). Монопол државе над инструментима силе видно је „ослабио“ у протекле две деценије, највише као резултат тренда приватизације који је захватио све области модерног друштва. Након завршетка хладног рата приватне војне компаније у великој мери почеле су да пружају професионалне војне услуге, како земљама у развоју, тако и индустријски развијеним земљама. Те услуге варирају од стратешких, тактичких и технолошких савета, обуке и логистичке подршке, као и пружања искључиво војних (борбених) услуга владама разних држава, мултинационалним корпорацијама, међународним организацијама, невладиним агенцијама и осталим недржавним субјектима. Приватне војне компаније свакако нису неки пролазни феномен или појава; напротив, оне ће представљати веома важног снабдевача приватних војних услуга у будућности. У вези с тим, у раду се на један генерални и систематски начин сагледава улога приватних војних компанија и оружаних снага, како у традиционалним концептима националне, тако и међународне безбедности са посебним освртом на њихов историјски развој.
126. The role of police in achieving security on the Danube as international waterways in Serbia
Danube as an international navigable river in Serbia and water main roads of central and southeastern Europe, despite all of its advantages it contains one of the kind of components suitable for performing criminal activities (general, economic and organized crime and terrorism). Also, it can happen flooding, traffic accidents, fires and accidents that require the involvement of specially trained first responders. In addition, the specificity of the police work aimed at achieving security of the Danube, directly contributed to the development of police organization and in this segment. It is, therefore, a separate organizational unit of Serbian police such as river police, border police, gendarmerie specialized units (divers) and fire-rescue units with fire boats, trained and equipped in order to take preventive and repressive measures and actions in order to preserve security on the Danube and the actions of protection and rescue of people, material and cultural resources and the environment. Considering the international, cross-border, security-protective, water management, transport, tourism, sports and recreation, hunting and other issues on the river Danube, the authors present the possibility of an integrated security management at international navigable rivers. Specifically, the paper introduced the modern concept of the security management of the overall creative and destructive anthropogenic and natural phenomena and processes that are manifested in the international waterway (river) road, and are related to the joint efforts of police, customs, inspection services, port authorities, emergency medical, army, line ministries and other state agencies, water management companies, local authorities, social organizations and citizens.
127. ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS AS A NATURAL DISASTER
The purpose of the research – the research has been undertaken in order to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of the number and consequences of storms in the global geospace in the period in 1900 till 2013. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applied statistical methods. In addition, a statistical study was conducted by taking the raw data of all natural disasters (25,552) in mind, Excel „file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, after which they were analyzed in the same program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Inventions – Statistical analysis of the results clearly indicate that the number of storms on the rise, as well as the severity of their consequences. Research limitations – it cannot be said that an international database on natural disasters included absolutely everything that happens in the world, given that it was created thanks to the submitted national reports on natural disasters in the period in 1900 till 2013. So the question that arises is whether the most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Practical implications – bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the world’s geographic space, the results are a good argument to launch a serious reform of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Social implications – Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens on the severity of the consequences of meteorological disasters on people, the environment and their property. Original value – in local Serbian literature, there are no scientific papers on this approach analyzing storms on this way. These results are original, bearing in mind the scientific method used to analyze the data obtained from the Center for Research disaster in Brussels. Keywords – security, emergency situations, natural disasters, statistical analysis, storms.
128. СПРЕМНОСТ ЗА РЕАГОВАЊЕ НА ПРИРОДНУ КАТАСТРОФУ – ПРЕГЛЕД ЛИТЕРАТУРЕ – NATURAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS – REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
У научној литератури не постоји јасан консензус у погледу теоријског одређења, као и начина (природе) утицаја разноврсних фактора на спремност за реаговање на природне катастрофе. Управо стога, систематичним прегледом постојећих истраживања и примењених теоријских концепата, могуће је уочити неопходност њихове даље систематизације, а посебно потребе даљег објашњења међусобне повезаности демографских, социоекономских и психолошких фактора са нивоом спремности за реаговање на природну катастрофу. Сходно томе, предмет рада представља дескрипција и анализа релевантних научних радова (88) са циљем њиховог разврставања према критеријумима теоријског одређења и фактора утицаја на ниво спремности за реаговање на природне катастрофе. Резултати истраживања омогућавају јасан увид у мрежу постојећих теоријских објашњења и фактора који утичу на ниво спремности. Претрага постојећих радова у домаћој и страној литератури извршена је уз помоћ сервиса ,,Google scholar“, популарне мреже кооперативног ,,on line“ библиографског система и сервиса (COBISS), српског цитатног индекса (SCI) и портала конзорцијума библиотека Србије за обједињену набавку (KoBSON). In the scientific literature, there is no clear consensus on the theoretical determination, as well as ways (nature) the impact of various factors on the preparedness to respond to natural disasters. Precisely with this, a systematic review of existing research and applied theoretical concepts, it is possible to perceive the necessity of their further systematization, and in particular the need for further explanation of the interconnectedness of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with the level of readiness to respond to a natural disaster. Accordingly, the subject of this paper is a description and analysis of relevant scientific papers (88) with a view to their classification according to the criteria of theoretical determination and factors affecting the level of preparedness for responding to natural disasters. The research results provide a clear insight into the network of existing theoretical explanations and the factors that influence the level of preparedness. Search existing work in domestic and foreign literature was carried out with the help of service ,,Google scholar“, a popular network of cooperative ,,on line“ bibliographic systems and services (COBISS), Serbian Citation Index (SCI) and portal consortium of Serbian library purchase (CoBSON).
129. Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije zemljotresa kao prirodnih katastrofa – Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of earthquake as natural disasters
Природне катастрофе свих врста (метеоролошке, хидролошке, геофизичке, климатске и биолошке) све више постају део свакодневног живота савременог човека. Последице су веома често разорне по живот, здравље и имовину људи, али такође и по безбедност државе и читаве међународне заједнице. Земљотреси (трусови) припадају групи геофизичких природних катастрофа и дешавају се врло често, с тим што је највећи број слабијег интензитета. Снажнији земљотреси могу да проузрокују велику материјалну штету и озбиљне последице по живот људи, настајањем пукотина у Земљиној кори, потресом тла, поплавама, ослобађањем опасних материја и сл. У том смислу, ради ефективније и ефикасније заштите и реаговања у ванредним ситуацијама изазваним штетним дејством сеизмичких таласа, потребно је, између осталог, свеобухватно истражити овај природни феномен, тако да ће предмет овог рада бити форма, последице, временски и геопросторни распоред испољава- ња земљотреса. Користећи међународну базу података о природним катастрофама Центра за истраживање епидемиологије катастрофа (CRED) са седиштем у Бриселу, уз подршку програма за статистичку анализу (SPSS) и метода тематске картографије, покушали смо да укажемо на број, трендове, последице, временску и геопросторну дистрибуцију земљотреса у периоду од 1900. до 2013. године, као и на потребу адекватног одговора друштва на ту врсту природне катастрофе.
130. Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija vulkanskih erupcijа – ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic eruptions, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. In relation to the total number of natural disasters in the period, which amounted to 25.552, geophysical disasters are in the third place according to its frequency – 11,89%. In the first place are hydrological disasters – 37,40%, and the last are biological ones – 11,04%. Volcanic eruptions as geophysical disasters, every day increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the field of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the volcanic eruptions is general scientific statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions in the period from 1900 to 2013 at the global level. In addition, the statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step raw (unprocessed) data were taken in «Excel» file form from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and effects of volcanic eruptions was examined on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 years by the number of various effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the spatial distribution, total number and the consequences of volcanic eruptions were analyzed by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences.
131. The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters – Uticaj klimatskih promena na rizik od prirodnih katastrofa
132. Upravljanje u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim upotrebom opasnih materija – Management in terrorist emergency situations
133. Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters
The subject of quantitative research is determining the spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters worldwide for the period 1900-2013. Considering that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for making conclusions on natural disasters is the statistical method. Thereby, a statistical survey has been conducted in the way that raw data about all natural disasters in the first step were downloaded (25.552) in the form of Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution the total number and consequences of natural disasters were analyzed by continents. According to the same principle, within temporal analysis we examined distribution of the total number and effects of natural disasters on annual, monthly and daily levels. Statistical results of analysis clearly indicate that the number of natural disasters has increased, with their recorded maximum in the period from 2000 to 2013. Certainly, one can not absolutely say this is true in view of starting to pay serious attention to quantitative indicators. Also, it can not be said that the international database (CRED) included absolutely all natural disasters in the world, considering that it was created thanks to the submission of national reports on natural disasters. Such way of data collection can have serious shortcomings, given the diverse subjectivities. In addition, the question that arises is whether most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the global geographic space, the survey results represent a good argument for initiation of serious reforms of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens about the seriousness of the consequences of natural disasters to humans, environment and their property.
134. Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa – ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE DISASTERS
Climate disasters, which include drought, extreme temperatures and wildfires, every day more and more jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the field of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Consequently, research has been undertaken in order to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of climate disasters in the world in geographic space period in 1900. till 2013. Given that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about climate disasters is a statistical method. In addition, a statistical study was conducted so as to take the first step, the raw data of all natural disasters (25,552) in mind, Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution analyzed the total number and consequences of climate disasters by continent. By the same token, within the temporal analysis examined the distribution of the total number and consequences of climatic disasters on an annual, monthly and daily. Statistical analysis of the results clearly indicate that the number of climate disasters on the rise, with their recorded maximum in the period since 2000. till 2013.. Then, based on the results it is concluded that most of the drought occurred in Africa, extreme temperatures in Europe and the forest fires in America. In contrast, the least drought and extreme temperatures occurred in Oceania, and forest fires in Africa. It can not be said that an international database on natural disasters included absolutely everything that happens in the world, given that it was created thanks to the submitted national reports on natural disasters in the period in 1900. till 2013. So the question that arises is whether the most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the world’s geographic space, the results are a good argument to launch a serious reform of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens on the severity of the consequences of climatic disasters on people, the environment and their property. In our literature there is no scientific papers on this approach the analysis of climatic disasters. These results are original, bearing in mind the scientific method used to analyze the data obtained from the Center for Research of the Epidemiology of Disaster in Brussels.
135. Zaštita kritične infrastrukture od posledica prirodnih katastrofa – PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FROM NATURAL DISASTERS
Critical Infrastructure Protection is one of the important measures to mitigate the consequences of natural disasters. As such, it has been recognized as a basis for maintaining the functionality of the community in emergency situations. It can be said that the main aim of protection of critical infrastructure from the impact of natural disasters is to maintain continuity in its functioning.Therefore, in the paper, the author analyzes the possibilities of protection of critical infrastructure from direct/indirect eff ects of natural disasters, with a special emphasis on structural and non-structural measures for their protection. In addition, special attention is paid to the phenomenological structure and consequences of diff erent types of natural disasters on critical infrastructure.
136. Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija kao prirodnih katastrofa – Geospatial and temporal distribution of tsunami as natural disasters
Predmet istraživanja predstavlja utvrёivanja geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija u svetskom geoprostoru u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučljiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaključaka o cunamiju jeste statistička metoda. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobraёeni podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama (25.552) u vidu ,,Excel‖ fajla iz meёunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice cunamija po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica cunamija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou.
137. Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija – Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruption
Vulkanske erupcije kao geofizičke katastrofe, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbednost lјudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolјe spoznati. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučlјiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaklјučaka o vulkanskim erupcijama jeste statistička metoda. Rukovodeći se tom činjenicom, predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija u svetu, tokom perioda 1900-2013. godina. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci u vidu ,,Excel” fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica vulkanskih erupcija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou, sa posebnim osvrtom na 5 najznačajnijih godina prema broju različitih posledica (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni, bez doma). Na istom principu, u okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice vulkanskih erupcija po kontinentima i državama, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najugroženijih država prema ukupnom broju i različitim posledicama. U cilju efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom vulkanskih erupcija, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispolјavanja vulkanskih erupcija. Pri tome, važno je da geoprostorna i vremenska analiza vulkanskih erupcija daju značenje, sadržaj i vrednost sveobuhvatnoj težnji za bolje razumevanje prirodnih opasnosti i njihovih uticaja, kako bi se stanovništvo pravovremeno zaštitilo od njih. Klјučne reči: vulkanske erupcije, statistička analiza, prirodne katastrofe, bezbednost, vanredne situacije.
138. Uloga policije u prirodnim katastrofama – The role of police in natural disasters
Policija predstavlja jednu od najznačajnijih interventno-spasilačkih službi koja ima krucijalnu ulogu u prirodnim katastrofama. Svakako, karakteristike i obim njene uloge zavise od mnogobrojnih faktora kao što su vrsta, obim, intenzitet, faza i posledice prirodne katastrofe, stepen obučenosti policijskih službenika, postojanje planova i resursa za postupanje policije u takvim situacijama, itd. Ipak, o ulozi policije u prirodnim katastrofama postoji veoma oskudna literatura, pa se na neki način olako može zaklјučiti da je njena uloga i značaj u takvim situacijama donekle i marginalizovana. Upravo stoga, autor u radu analizira zadatke i organizaciju policije u različitim fazama nastajanja prirodne katastrofe. Na sveobuhvatan način, izlaže se teorijski model odgovora na prirodne katastrofe od strane policije, koji opisuje prioritete stanovnika pogođene zajednice sa ciljem identifikacije najoptimalnije strategije policijskog reagovanja u svakoj od tih faza katastrofe. Kao rezultat istraživanja, u radu se iznose jasne smernice i preporuke za unapređenje rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredna situacije, prirodne katastrofe, policija, zadaci, organizacija, Obrenovac.
139. АНАЛИЗА ГЕОПРОСТОРНЕ И ВРЕМЕНСКЕ ДИСТРИБУЦИЈЕ ЗЕМЉОТРЕСА КАО ПРИРОДНИХ КАТАСТРОФА
Природне катастрофе свих врста (метеоролошке, хидролошке, геофизичке, климатске и биолошке) све више постају део свакодневног живота савременог човека. Последице су веома често разорне по живот, здравље и имовину људи, али такође и по безбедност државе и читаве међународне заједнице. Земљотреси (трусови) припадају групи геофизичких природних катастрофа и дешавају се врло често с тим што је њихов највећи број слабијег интензитета. Снажнији земљотреси могу да проузрокују велику материјалну штету и озбиљне последице по живот људи кроз настајање пукотина у земљиној кори, потреса тла, поплава, ослобађања опасних материја и сл. У том смислу, ради ефективније и ефикасније заштите и реаговања у ванредним ситуацијама изазваним штетним дејством сеизмичких таласа, потребно је између осталог свеобухватно истражити наведени природни феномен, тако да ће предмет овог рада бити форма, последице, временски и геопросторни распоред испољавања земљотреса. Користећи међународну базу података о природним катастрофама Центра за истраживање епидемиологије катастрофа (CRED) са седиштем у Бриселу, уз подршку програма за статистичку анализу (SPSS) и метода тематске картографије, покушали смо да укажемо на број, трендове, последице, временску и геопросторну дистрибуцију земљотреса у периоду од 1900. до 2013. године, као и на потребу адекватног одговора друштва на ту врсту природне катастрофе. Кључне речи: земљотрес, статистичка анализа, природне катастрофе, безбедност, ванредне ситуације.
140. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL STRATEGIES FOR PROTECTION AND RESCUE IN EMERGENCIES IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO WITH EMPHASIS ON CROATIA
Emergencies caused by different types of disasters (natural, technological and complex) are as old as human history. They have always created serious problems for people and their communities, forcing them to take appropriate measures to ensure their prevention, mitigation, response and recovery. Keeping in mind the security implications of emergencies for the population, the overall tangible and intangible assets and the environment, each country has a primary responsibility for its own sustainable development on one hand, and for implementation of effective measures to reduce the risk of emergencies on the other hand. Therefore, the state and its authorities shall promptly undertake measures aimed at protecting people and their material assets and the environment from the impacts of emergency situations, i.e. to undertake measures to effectively reduce the risk of emergencies caused by disasters. In addition, one of the most important measures is certainly incorporating the integrated and multifaceted approach to disaster risk reduction into policies, planning and programming related to sustainable development, assistance, rehabilitation and revitalization activities in post-catastrophic and post-conflict situations in countries at risk disaster. The countries that develop policy, legislative and institutional framework for disaster risk reduction and those that are able to develop and track progress through specific and measurable indicators have greater capacity to manage risks and to achieve a widely accepted consensus on the inclusion and fulfilling measures of risk reduction across all sectors of the society. Certainly, on the list of significant measures aimed at reducing the risk of disaster is the adoption of the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations. Generally speaking, national strategies are 201 aimed at a comprehensive understanding of the source of current and future risks, the establishment of the concept of organized activities of the government and other institutions to reduce emergencies caused by all forms of major natural and technological disasters, to mitigate their consequences through prevention actions, as well as development of adequate state of readiness and capacity of the whole community. Therefore, the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations is a crucial foundation on which all other activities aimed at reducing disaster risk rest. That is why the author has done a detailed analysis of the National Strategy for Protection and Rescue of Serbia and Montenegro-with respect to Croatia, in order to compare their contents, based solutions, and implemented international standards. In addition, special attention is paid to the analysis of grounding of such strategies, keeping in mind the objective risk assessments of possible emergencies, which are determined by presenting statistical analysis of each country. Key words: comparative analysis, the national strategy for the protection and rescue, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, safety, emergency situations.
141. The role of education in natural disaster risk reduction – Uloga obrazovanja u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa
bstract: Having in mind that the number of natural disasters is constantly growing, and it produces more serious consequences for the humans and their material goods, it is essential all the preventive measures to be taken in order to reduce the risk of natural disasters to a minimum. In the XXI century, the role of this type of education has become unequivocally clear and recognized. The importance of education for that purpose has been recognized and confirmed at numerous international conventions and conferences, with a clear emphasis that schools, the families and the local communities play a decisive role in reducing the severity of consequences caused by natural disasters, through the process of developing awareness and knowledge of natural disasters. Considering the importance of education in order to reduce the riscs of disasters, in the paper the role of schools that represent major entities in playing a key role in providing basic information about the natural disasters is explained. Besides the schools, in the developing of the awwareness for the natural disasters a significant role also have the higher education institutions and therefore it is very important of considering the current trends in this field as well as the future development of their role in the education and developing awareness about. Finally, a particular attention is dedicated to the role of the family and the community in this process.
142. Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters – Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija prirodnih katastrofa
The subject of quantitative research is determining the spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters worldwide for the period 1900-2013. Considering that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for making conclusions on natural disasters is the statistical method. Thereby, a statistical survey has been conducted in the way that raw data about all natural disasters in the first step were downloaded (25.552) in the form of Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution the total number and consequences of natural disasters were analyzed by continents. According to the same principle, within temporal analysis we examined distribution of the total number and effects of natural disasters on annual, monthly and daily levels. Statistical results of analysis clearly indicate that the number of natural disasters has increased, with their recorded maximum in the period from 2000 to 2013. Certainly, one can not absolutely say this is true in view of starting to pay serious attention to quantitative indicators. Also, it can not be said that the international database (CRED) included absolutely all natural disasters in the world, considering that it was created thanks to the submission of national reports on natural disasters. Such way of data collection can have serious shortcomings, given the diverse subjectivities. In addition, the question that arises is whether most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the global geographic space, the survey results represent a good argument for initiation of serious reforms of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens about the seriousness of the consequences of natural disasters to humans, environment and their property.
143. SUPROTSTAVLJANJE SAVREMENOM TERORIZMU KAO DOPRINOS ZAŠTITI LJUDSKE BEZBEDNOSTI U REPUBLICI SRBIJI – FIGHTING CONTEMPORARY TERRORISM AS A CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN SECURITY IN THE REPUBLIK OF SERBIA
The scientific and professional literature, politics and the media are preoccupied with the problem of terrorism and consequences of its manifestations upon security of the state in the past few decades. With the development of the concept of human security focus of interest has been shifted to the consequences that this security threat pose to the man and his values. The aim of this paper is to show that the state is only indirectly affected by the consequences of terrorism through its constituent component – population. For that reason, fighting contemporary terrorism must be in order to protect human security. This paper will discuss how the human component is positioned in the National Security Strategy, since it is a major strategic documents in Serbia. It will then consider whether terrorism construe an increasing threat to traditional state’s values such as state sovereignty and territorial integrity, or to its human component. Finally, we will point out how the fight against terrorism contributes to the protection of human security, ie. that of its segment, which is threatened by the terrorist activity. Keywords: human security, national security, state, terrorism, strategy. Naučna i stručna literatura, politika i mediji okupirani su posled-njih nekoliko decenija problemom terorizma i posledicama njegovih manife-stacija na bezbednost država. Razvojem koncepta ljudske bezbednosti fokus interesovanja pomera se ka posledicama koje ova savremena bezbednosna pretnja ostavlja na čoveka i njegove vrednosti. U radu ćemo ukazati na to da je država tek indirektno ugrožena posledicama terorizma, i to kroz ugro-žavanje njene konstitutivne komponente – stanovništva. Iz tog razloga, i suprotstavljanje savremenom terorizmu mora biti u funkciji zaštite ljudske bezbednosti. U radu će se razmatrati kako je ljudska komponenta pozici-onirana u Strategiji nacionalne bezbednosti, s obzirom na to da se radi o najvažnijem strateškom dokumentu naše zemlje. Zatim će se razmatrati da li terorizam predstavlja veću pretnju tradicionalnim državnim vrednostima kao što su teritorijalni integritet i suverenitet, ili pak njenoj ljudskoj kom-ponenti. Najzad, ukazaćemo na koji način borba protiv terorizma doprinosi zaštiti bezbednosti ljudi, tj. onom njenom segmentu koji se ugrožava kroz terorističku aktivnost. Ključne reči: ljudska bezbednost, nacionalna bezbednost, država, terorizam, strategija Uvod Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka savremene države jeste nalaženje najadekvatni-jih načina suprotstavljanja terorizmu. Bez obzira na to koliko je ekonomski sta-bilna ili kolika je njena vojna moć, nijedna država nije pošteđena pretnje i straha od terorizma koji je danas postao moćno oružje onih koji su nemoćni da drugim, legitimnim sredstvima ostvare političke ciljeve. Najvažnija doktrinarna i strateška dokumenta država postavljaju terorizam na sam vrh agende bezbednosnih pretnji zbog svoje nepredvidivosti i teških posledica koje ostavlja za sobom. Takva pozici-ja ukazuje nam da su države posebno ranjive na terorizam, a situacija je dodatno usložena već decenijama postojećim problemom određenja pojma terorizma, čije bi rešavanje uveliko olakšalo borbu protiv terorizma pravnim sredstvima.
144. COOPERATION OF SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS
Emergency situations do not recognize national borders and often acquire regional and global character. SouthEast European countries are permanently exposed to various emergency situations, such as earthquakes, floods, snow storms, droughts, forest fires etc. In certain cases, these countries are incapable to cope with catastrophic consequences of these emergencies with their own capacities, but are forced to seek help from their neighbours or international organizations. Possible means of help and cooperation demand internationally institutionalized, coordinated and adequate answer of available forces and means by all subjects of protection and rescue before, during and after the occurrences of emergency situations. In this respect, international-legal foundation of cooperation and offering help to the SouthEast European countries in cases of emergencies and operations of humanitarian nature are firstly observed. After that, important international organizations and associations which, helped by legal platform, realize different aspects of regional cooperation of SouthEast European countries at eliminating consequences of emergency situations, as well as numerous regional initiatives and strategies for reduction and estimation risks from emergencies were analysed. 1 This paper was realized as a part of the project „Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation“ (43007) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for the period 2011-2014.
145. Climate Change as a Modern Security Threat
146. Classification of emergency situations
147. Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations
148. Могућности злоупотребе биолошког оружја у терористичке сврхе – Possibilities of Biological Weapons Abuse for Terrorist Purposes
Вековима уназад биолошки агенси су коришћени за ратовање, терористичке или криминалне активности. Може се рећи да је изгледало да ће потписивање Конвенције о биолошком оружју допринети да ono постане само непријатна успомена на времена када се употребљавало. Међутим, биотероризам је постао реалност савременог света због својих карактеристика и последица које узрокује. При томе, експанзија високе технологије с једне и способност биолошког оружја да изазове ,,масовно уништавање“ или ,,масовне жртве“ с друге стране, помера фокус јавности и стручњака са питања ,,да ли ће се“ на питање ,,када ће се догодити терористички напад биолошким оружјем“. Управо стога у раду је дат осврт на појам, класификацију и историјат употребе биолошког оружја. Такође је дат и генерални преглед могућности његове употребе у терористичке сврхе и заштите од биолошког оружја. Кључне речи: биолошко оружје, биотероризам, историјат, класификација, тактика, ванредне ситуације, безбедност. For centuries, biological agents have been used in warfare, terrorist for criminal activities. It seemed that the signing of the convention on biological weapons would contribute to biological weapons to become just an unpleasant memory of the past. However, bioterrorism has become a reality of the modern world due to its characteristics, causes and consequences. At the same time, the expansion of high technology on one hand and the ability of biological weapons to cause massive destruction or “mass casualties” on the other hand, shifts the focus of the public and experts from the question “will there be” to the question of “when will there be” a terrorist attack using biological weapons.” Therefore, in this paper, the author discusses the concept, classification, and history of the use of biological weapons, and the possibility of their use for terrorist purposes.
149. Classification of emergency situations – Klasifikacija vanrednih situacija
There is no universally accepted definition or classification of an emergency situation. Adoption of a universally and generally acceptable classification of emergency situations represents one of the important challenges the researchers, competent governmental authorities, and international organizations have to face. The classification of emergencies in this paper has been made on the basis of analyses of different sources, such as course books, articles, internet sites, relevant international and national reports, etc. Based on this, several criteria have been proposed for defining classification of emergencies. Justification and acceptability of classification of emergency situations constitute an important prerequisite for their valid recording and better quality analysis, as well as for the international cooperation of governments, authorities in charge, members of the scientific community and non-governmental organizations from that field of work. This paper gives a short overview of the classification of emergency situations, with a special focus on the USA, the Russian Federation, China, the Netherlands, Germany and Serbia.
150. VULNERABILITY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE BY NATURAL DISASTERS
Natural disasters increasingly threaten the safety of the mankind. Not only that, in past decades there has been an obvious increase in the number of natural disasters, but it is also present an increase in their destructiveness. This results in a higher loss of life, material and non-material damage. In addition, compromising critical infrastructure prevents or limits the implementation of vital state functions (governance, health, education, energy, economic, social, and general security functions), which is further reflected in the safety of states and citizens. Despite the technological development of mankind, societies are increasingly threatened. It is clear that the disasters and their impact on people and critical infrastructure cannot be prevented, but mechanisms for prediction and early warning of disasters can be improved that the resilience and capacity for faster and more efficient revitalization of endangered values and goods can be increased. Besides the degree of destruction, the response strategy in an emergency situation will depend on the type of disaster, but also on the kind of critical infrastructure and specific goods and values that are threatened. In this regard, the paper gives an overview of the scope and the content of (still undetermined) concept of critical infrastructure, the term and the phenomenology of natural disasters, the consequences of geophysical, hydrological and meteorological disasters on critical infrastructure and critical infrastructure protection capabilities against natural disasters. Key words: safety, critical infrastructure, natural disasters, the consequences of threats to critical infrastructure by natural disasters, protection of critical infrastructure from natural disasters.
151. First responders in emergency situations – Interventno-spasilačke službe u vanrednim situacijama
In this monograph are analyzed tasks of first responders (police, fire and rescue units and emergency medical services) in hazard situations caused with abuse of hazardous materials. Special attention is paid to the organization of work (so-called „8-step management“) and the safety of the members of these services. So, here is the topic about hazard situations caused by abuse of the dangerous substances; influence the realization of specific tasks by one or more emergency-rescue services. Bearing in mind that among the tasks of these services necessarily must be a clear division of tasks with clearly defined responsibilities, in the work special attention is dedicated to the analysis of their duties that are defined by law. For that reason, special attention is dedicated to the tasks of securing and criminal processing the scene of the police, with special reference to its role in coordinating other security services. As for the fire department – the rescuers, the emphasis is placed on consideration of rescue tactic of injured and firefighting in a dangerous environment. It was made a short review of the emergency medical services, which must adapt their organization to provide first aid to the new circumstances. Therefore, special attention was paid to triage, transport and for preparing of the hospitals to receive casualties. Realizing the importance and necessity of effective coordination of these services, it is stressed the importance of perception and analysis of their organization and operation on the site of terrorist act. This is done from the point of view (in the global West for a long time developed and implmented) of standards „8-step procedure“ (Eight Step Process), which is primarily aimed at coordinating the work of terrorist emergency situations. Finally, it points out the potential danger to life and health of the service members in the process of eliminating the consequences, with particular reference to the measures of protection. Keywords: hazard situation, hazard materials, emergency-rescue services, standards of „8 steps“, police, fire-rescue units, emergency medical service, security, dangerous environment, terrorism. У монографији су анализирани задаци интервентно-спасилачких служби (полиције, ватрогасно-спасилачких јединица и служби хитне медицинске помоћи) у ванредним ситуацијама које су изазване злоупотребом опасних материја. Посебна пажња је посвећена организацији рада, тзв. „менаџменту 8 корака“, и безбедности припадника ових служби. Дакле, реч је о ванредним ситуацијама које, због злоупотребе опасних материја, условљавају реализацију посебних задатака од стране једне или више интервентно-спасилачких служби. Имајући у виду то да између задатака ових служби нужно мора да постоји јасно разграничење послова са прецизно утврђеним надлежностима, у раду је посебна пажња посвећена анализи њихових задатака који су дефинисани законом. Управо стога, посебна пажња је посвећена задацима обезбеђивања и криминалистичке обраде лица места које спроводи полиција, са посебним освртом на њену улогу у координирању осталих служби безбедности. Када је реч о ватрогасцима-спасиоцима, акценат је стављен на разматрање тактике спасавања повређених и гашења пожара у опасном окружењу. Учињен је осврт и на службу хитне медицинске помоћи која мора да прилагоди своју организацију пружања прве помоћи новонасталим околностима. Стога је посебна пажња посвећена тријажи, транспортовању и припреми болница за пријем повређених. Схватајући значај и неопходност ефикасне координације рада ових служби, наглашен је значај сагледавања и анализе њиховог организовања и деловања на лицу места терористичког акта. То је учињено из аспекта (на глобалном Западу већ дуже време развијеног и имплементираног) стандарда тзв. „процедуре 8 корака“ (Eight Step Process), која је првенствено намењена координирању рада у терористичким ванредним ситуацијама. Најзад, указује се и на потенцијалне опасности по живот и здравље припадника служби у поступку отклањања насталих последица, са посебним освртом на мере заштите. Кључне речи: 1. ванредна ситуација 2. опасне материје 3. интервентно-спасилачке службе 4. стандарди „8 корака“ 5. полиција 6. ватрогасно-спасилачке јединице 7. служба хитне помоћи 8. безбедност 9. опасно окружење 10. тероризам
152. Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters
Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of geophysical natural disasters, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. Using an international database on natural disasters of the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (CRED) based in Brussels, with the support of the statistical analysis (SPSS), we tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and dry mass movements in the world, from 1900 to 2013.
153. Upravljanje u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim zloupotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje – Management in emergency situations caused by misuste of weapons of mass destruction
Possible misuse of weapons of mass destruction for terrorist purposes, are a nightmare to emergency managers and serious threat to national security in a state. Because it is a very destructive weapon, the management of such emergencies is very complex and procedurally interlace. Specifically, the site of an emergency, it is more work of coordination of emergency services such as police, fire-rescue unit and ambulance service. Each emergency service, must have developed treatment procedure that complies with the general plan of response in the emergency. Emergency personnel must have appropriate equipment to operate in hazardous environments and be adequately prepared for the elimination of consequences resulting from emergencies. Emergency services will meet with many problems and difficulties in eliminating the consequences of terrorist attacks. In order to effectively manage emergency services, we need well-developed management system (ICS). The reaction to this emergency must be organized and efficient, otherwise the public will question the government’s ability to deal with terrorists. Also, emergency personnel must keep the developed procedures and tactics of treatment. One of the most important treatment procedures in dealing with hazardous substances (WMD) is a procedure, 8 steps „(Eight Step Process). Each state has its own elaborate system of emergency management that is activated in the event of a terrorist attack caused by these weapons. The work at the beginning, in a systematic way, analyze the types and characteristics of weapons of mass destruction. Looking at the place and role of police, fire-rescue units and emergency department at the scene of an emergency. On the other hand, consider the organization of emergency services and management systems in these emergency situations. It also provides a general overview of the management of emergencies in the Russian Federation, the United States and Serbia. Keywords: chemical weapons, biological weapons, nuclear weapons, radiological weapons, explosives, police, fire-rescue unit, ambulance service, incident management system (ICS), 8 steps, The United States, Russian Federation, Serbia.
154. Aktivnosti Sektora za vanredne situacije na usklađivanju politike Republike Srbije sa bezbednosnom politikom EU u oblasti civilne zaštite
This paper explains the way of cooperation and association in the field of emergency management in the European Union (EU). Natural and technical disasters and emergencies are not limited by national boundaries or beyond the capabilities of adequate response of affected countries, and the EU is forced to build and develop capacities in those areas of common security. Republic of Serbia as a potential candidate country for EU membership, build up its own system of protection and rescue in emergency situations, which in most elements is compatible to the EU system. Sector for Emergency Management of the Ministry of Interior, is the most important carrier of construction, harmonization and coordination of the system in the Republic of Serbia (RS), as well as a system of civil protection and humanitarian assistance of EU.
155. ЗАДАЦИ ВАТРОГАСНО-СПАСИЛАЧКИХ ЈЕДИНИЦА У TEРОРИСТИЧКОМ НАПАДУ ИЗАЗВАНОМ УПОТРЕБОМ ОРУЖЈА ЗА МАСОВНО УНИШТАВАЊЕ – THE TASKS OF FIRE RESCUE UNITS IN THE TERRORIST ATTACK CAUSED BY THE USE OF WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION
The terrorist attacks, caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction, represent the nightmare for leaders of fire rescue units. In addition to police and emergency medical services, these units have an important role on the site of a terrorist attack. When eliminating the consequences of a terrorist attack, members of fire rescue units will be burdened with many tasks that will need to take. The presence of hazardous materials and a large number of casualties, which are also contaminated, would greatly complicate the treatment of these units. Members of fire rescue units must be able to identify hazardous materials, determine the dimensions of hazards and the precautions that will be required. In order to act more efficiently, they must have developed procedures and tactics, and appropriate protective equipment. Therefore, they must have proper equipment to work with hazardous materials. One of the most important tasks, in addition to protection of life and health, is decontamination,which should be approached very cautiously and conscientiously. This paper analyzes and examines the role of fire rescue units on scene of a terrorist attack caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction. It gives a general overview of their activities after they have been alerted until the end of intervention with special reference to the very tactics of approaching site of a terrorist attack. It discusses the protective means and equipment necessary for operation in hazardous environments, and the role of fire rescue units in the process of decontamination.
156. Incident Command System in the United States of America
Incident Command System – ICS) у САД, као потреба да се реагује на реалне захтеве савременог друштва, временом се појавио као нова научна дисциплина. Њен главни циљ јесте да омогу-ћи свођење губитака на најмању меру у најкраћем временском перио-ду са минималним снагама и средствима, као и отклањање узрока и последица ванредних ситуација. Да би се ти циљеви остварили, ство-рене су теоријске и методолошке основе за квалитетно оперативно и стратешко руковођење у ванредним, екстремним условима. Кључне речи: систем управљања, ванредна ситуација, при-нципи, организација. Увод акон серије великих шумских пожара у Калифорнији током 1970. године који су проузроковали велику материјалну штету, уз ма-совне људске жртве и велики број повређених, уочено је да се такав проблем понављао по истом обрасцу, али да за њега и даље није по-стојао адекватан одговор. Надлежне ватрогасне службе су тада предо-чиле да су на успех и ток целокупног спасавања и управљања утицале карактерне, тј. личне особине надлежних органа и њихових руководила-ца. Након тих великих шумских пожара развијен је систем управљања у ванредној ситуацији (у даљем тексту ICS) у јужној Калифорнији. У то време су органи власти на свим нивоима сарађивали на стварању орга-низације задужене за потенцијалне ванредне ситуације (Firefighting Resources of California Organized for Potential Emergencies – FIRESCOPE). То тело је, на основу анализе начина реаговања и одговора на велике пожаре, уочило следеће проблеме који су се понављали: * Проф. др Драган Млађан реализује наставу из научне области Безбедност у ванредним ситуацијама.
157. POLICE DEPLOYMENT IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS CAUSED BY THE ABUSE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
In their line of work police officers face a large number of emergency situations-criminal incidents related to hazardous materials that can be abused as the weapons of mass destruction. Deployment of police officers in cases of terrorist attacks has its specific features, since it is carried out in extreme circumstances with outstanding dangers to life and health. Apart from the emergency medical service and fire and rescue units, the police have a decisive role in the elimination of consequences of such incidents. In these emergency situations, police staff offers primarily assistance to the injured persons, prevents the expansion and elimination of consequences of the emergency situation, and pays considerable attention to the criminal processing of the scene of incident. Apart from giving the overview of police officers deployment in priority tasks, this paper also gives a comprehensive review of their position in the emergency management system, where the emergency situation has been caused by the abuse of this destructive weapon.
158. Mogućnosti zloupotrebe oružja za masovno uništavanje – Possibilities of Weapon of Mass Destruction Abuse for Terrorist Purposes
Неспорна деструктивност оружја за масовно уништавање и развој његове пролиферације с једне, као и експанзија екстремизма и тероризма у свету, с друге стране, указују на повећан ризик од могуће употребе наведеног оружја у терористичке сврхе. Уз то, отежана детекција и идентификација поменутих опасних материја, која додатно усложњава поступање снага заштите и спасавања на месту терористичког догађаја, још више инспирише лидере терористичких група да се домогну овог оружја. С тим у вези, у раду је учињен осврт на (не)посредну везу између овог оружја и терористичких група, даје се генерални преглед оружја за масовно уништавање која се могу искористити у терористичке сврхе и испитује се реалност и могућност његове употребе ради остварења терористичких циљева. Undeniable destructiveness of weapons of mass destruction and their proliferation development, on the one hand, and the expansion of extremism and terrorism in the world, on the other hand, indicate an increasing risk of their misuse for terrorist purposes. Besides, difficulties of detection and identification of those hazardous materials, which further make it more complex for defence and rescue forces to react at the site of a terrorist attack, additionally motivate the leaders of terrorist groups to acquire these weapons. Subsequently, this paper made a retrospective of the( in)direct connection between these weapons and terrorist groups, giving a general overview of weapons of mass destruction that could be used for terrorist purposes, and examining the certainty and possibility of their misuse to achieve terrorists’ goals.