Naučni članci - Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama

NAUČNI RADOVI IZ OBLASTI STUDIJA KATASTROFA

The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia

The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health capacities in local self-government units in 2021. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status.

Reference – Cvetković, V.M., Tanasić, J.; Ocal, A., Živković-Šulović, M., Ćurić, N., Milojević, S., Knežević, S. (2023). The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia. Lex localis – Journal of Local Self Government, 21(4).

Sustainable Development of Trust and Presence of Police in Schools: Implications for School Safety Policy

The study aims to determine the trust and presence of police officers in schools in Serbia, as well as the perception of the principals and secretaries, teachers and staff, parents and students on how successful the certain police units dedicated to schools were in fulfilling their tasks. The ex–post analysis was conducted through PEST/SWAT analysis, mapping of the key actors and using batteries of online questionnaires. Besides interviews with the MOI representatives, there were conducted: Survey with personal interviewing, Computer–aided surveying and Desk analysis and content analysis. The survey was conducted in the period from September 2021 to June 2022. The research methods were implemented in 1140 schools in Serbia and 8,617 people were included in surveys: police officers (308); principals and secretaries (1085); the team for protection against discrimination (982); teachers and staff (2988); parents (938) and students (2316). The relationships between the covariates and perception were investigated using the t–test, one–way ANOVA, multivariate linear regression, and binary regression. The results showed that a project of school police officers was not fully recognized as one of the strategically important instruments for safe schools, trust is low but presence is high. Besides that, the results suggest that the entire public believe that a police is needed in schools and that it has a very positive effect on school safety. Regarding school safety policy, it is necessary to undertake three types of measures for sustainable development of trust and presence of police in school: regulatory, informative-educational and institutional-organizational.

Reference – Janković, B.; Cvetković, V.M.; Ivanović, Z.; Petrović, S.; Otašević, B. Sustainable Development of Trust and Presence of Police in Schools: Implications for School Safety Policy. Preprints 2023, 2023090683. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0683.v1

Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction

Starting from the unexplored level of the fire safety of citizens in Serbia, this paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding a fire safety behavior model for residential buildings in Serbia. The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 540 respondents during April 2021. The study’s objective was to determine to what degree education level and gender influence the prediction of the fire safety behavior model (individual preparedness, personal security, fire risk, fire prevention knowledge) for residential buildings in Serbia. The multivariate regression analyses showed that the most important predictor of individual preparedness, personal security, and fire risk perception was gender, followed by age. On the other hand, education level, ownership status, and monthly income did not sig-nificantly affect individual preparedness for fire protection, personal security, fire risk, and pre-vention knowledge. Moreover, the results showed the main reasons for not taking preventive actions are the high cost of the equipment, not being familiar with the exact measures to take, believing that the emergency services would provide them with the necessary assistance, a lack of time, etc. The obtained results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond in a timely and appropriate manner to fires in residential buildings and create programs and campaigns to improve awareness among the general public.

Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Dragašević, A., Protić, D., Janković, B., Nikolić, N., Milošević, P. (2022). Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 75.

A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding a predictive model of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease (COVİD-19). The aim of this paper was to establish the level and impact of certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19). The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 1226 respondents during May 2021. A closed, five-point Likert scale was used to create the structured questionnaire. The first section of the questionnaire included research questions about the participants’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, while the second section included issue questions about fear caused by COVID-19. The results of multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 to be gender, followed by age and education level. Furthermore, the results of t-tests showed statistically significant differences between men and women in terms of different aspects of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease. Our results have several significant public health implications. Women who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported a greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Decision-makers can use these findings to identify better strategic opportunities for pandemic disaster risk management.

Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., Ocal, A., Martinović, J., & Dragašević, A. (2022). A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(2). doi:10.3390/ijerph19020652

Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management

The objective of this research was to examine the capacity development of local self-governments in the field of disaster risk management (DRM). This quantitative research examines the degree of implementation of strategic, legislative, and institutional frameworks, as well as the capacity of local authorities to apply related policies through five analytical scopes: (1) degree of preparedness and legal framework; (2) financial framework; (3) policy aspects; (4) cooperation and partnership; (5) communication. The ability of municipalities and towns to respond to disasters was also analyzed and compared. In this paper, our initial hypothesis was that the effective implementation of the concept of DRM policy in towns of Serbia requires the continual strategic, tactical, and operational transformation of the public administration and public management system in order to strengthen the capacity of local self-governments for disaster prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This multi-method research was conducted over the period of 2014–2017 and included the following two target groups: (a) heads of disaster sectors in local self-government units (mayor) and (b) employees of the DRM sector in local self-government units. The results of this research will enable decision makers to successfully respond to challenges and help to improve the capacity of local self-governments and public local administrations within the scope of DRM in the Republic of Serbia, based on the principles of prevention and proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility.

Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Kešetović, Ž., Nikolić, N., & Dragašević, A. (2021). Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19). doi:10.3390/ijerph181910406

Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits

Nuclear power remains one of the most accessible choices in addressing environmental and social concerns due to the continuously increasing energy needs around the world. While it remains an excellent source of energy due to its low price and low level of emissions, potential accidents remain a serious problem. An example of such is the most recent accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (2011), which reminded the world of the potential risks of nuclear energy and the consequences of which continue to have a lasting effect. There is no nuclear power plant in Serbia, but there are about 15 nuclear power stations scattered within its neighboring countries. Therefore, the Serbian Government decided to study how the Serbian public perceives the risks related to the potential construction of nuclear power stations in the country, nuclear energy in general, and its possible benefits and risks. The objective of this paper is to present the results of this assessment along with a literature overview on the (environmental) risk of nuclear power. A pilot study consisted of a series of 270 randomized face-to-face interviews that took place in the public square of Belgrade in March 2019. Logistic regression was used to examine the cumulative effects of the different risk factors. The results showed that the majority of the respondents are skeptical and do not support the construction of nuclear power stations in Serbia. Furthermore, this research identified several additional important correlations that have a significant impact on the public perception of risk.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits. Energies, 14, 2464.

Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 global coronavirus pandemic disaster. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. As of 19 April 2020, more than 2.35 million cases have been reported across 185 countries and territories, resulting in more than 162,000 deaths. Risk to communities with ongoing sustained widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing) — all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in March-April 2020. The questionnaire explored citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taking individually and as a community to prevent the deadly and widespread transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks presented by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop focused strategies to enhance community and national preparedness through the promotion of behavioral change and the improvement of risk management decision-making regarding pandemic disasters.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4124.

Young adults’ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level and the causes of fear of disasters among young adults in Turkey, Serbia, and Macedonia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected hand by hand that explored in depth the disaster-related fears among 537 respondents during 2016. The questionnaire explored students’ basic demographics and their level of fear, as well as the causes and sources of fear. Across the three countries, the results indicated an excessive level of fear both of earthquakes and of epidemics. In addition, participants reported that they were particularly afraid for their personal lives and, to a greater extent, for the health of their parents. Experiences with bad weather conditions, pictures of the consequences of disasters, and past disaster experience were found to exacerbate fear. It was also found that females were more afraid, with a possible socio-cultural-laden link to an ethos of protection versus participation. Findings can be used to create focused strategies at a national level intended to reduce excess fear of disasters and facilitate a more prepared public through policy and education programme development.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., & Ivanov, A. (2019). Young adults’ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 35, 101095. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101095

The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia

Adverse outcomes from 2014 flooding in Serbia indicated problematic response phase management accentuated by a gender imbalance. For this reason, we investigated the risk perceptions and preparedness of women and men regarding these types of events in Serbia. Face-to-face interviews, administered to 2500 participants, were conducted across 19 of 191 municipalities. In light of the current findings, men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, perceiving greater individual and household preparedness. By contrast, women displayed a deeper understanding of these events. Perhaps owing to a deeper level of understanding, women demonstrated more household-caring attitudes and behaviors and were more prone to report a willingness to help flood victims at reception centers. Emergency management agencies and land planners should account for these differences in gender awareness and preparedness. Based on these findings, doing so may increase citizen participation and shared responsibility under flood hazard scenarios.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Roder, G., Öcal, A., Tarolli, P., & Dragićević, S. (2018). The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(12), 2761. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122761

Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: A comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia

A new coronavirus emerged in December 2019 and quickly spread globally, causing unprecedented social, psychological, and economic damage. This study aimed to investigate people’s emotional reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset for this study consisted of 2,013 adults (962 males and 1,053 females) in four countries (Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia). A snowball sampling technique that focused on recruiting the general public living in countries during the COVID-19 epidemic was utilized. An online survey was disseminated at the same time, in March–April 2020, when many countries were exposed to COVID-19. Results indicated that, with regard to gender, females had more psychological reactions to COVID-19 than did males. People who had one child were more stressed than people with no children. Extensive knowledge of COVID-19 was found to trigger more anxiety. Results showed that stress and overall emotional reactions increased with age. The findings can be used to develop psychological interventions to improve mental health and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 epidemic. Keywords: pandemic; stress; anxiety; depression; adult, COVID-19; emotion; disaster; disease.

Reference – Öcal, A., Cvetković, V. M., Baytiyeh, H., Tedim, F. M. S., & Zečević, M. (2020). Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: a comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 1864-1885. doi:10.1080/19475705.2020.1811405

Public Risk Perspectives Regarding the Threat of Terrorism in Belgrade: Implications for Risk Management Decision-Making for Individuals, Communities and Public Authorities

The aim of this paper is to assess the risk of terrorist attacks as perceived by individuals, the local community as a whole, and municipal public safety officials in Belgrade, the capital of the Republic of Serbia. The structured questionnaire about perceived risk of terrorist attacks and preparedness was developed using close-ended, multiple choice questions and questionnaire items featuring 5-point Likert response options. Data were collected between June and September 2017 by a telephone survey using a random digit dialing procedure; 485 adult Serbian residents participated in the research voluntarily. Study participants exhibited low levels of perception vis-a-vis the future likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring in their communities, and only a moderate knowledge of counter-terrorism activities currently being undertaken by public safety authorities. Other responses to our questionnaire indicated statistically significant differences in perception of the risks of terrorism threats in Belgrade with respect to demographic variables such as age, gender, employment and past exposure to major emergencies. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced counter-terrorism preparedness measures through the promotion of behavioural change. Such action goes hand-in-hand with the adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. Furthermore, to improve risk management decision-making we need to anticipate virtually all possible scenarios because terrorism is now a clear and present danger to the safety of the citizens of Serbia. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have up-to-date disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations as opposed to only preconceived generalized plans. Keywords: terrorism, risk perception, threat, preparedness, decision-making, Belgrade.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Noji, E., Filipović, M., Popović, M., Kešetović, Ž. & Radović, N. (2018). Public Risk Perspectives Regarding the Threat of Terrorism in Belgrade: Implications for Risk Management Decision-Making for Individuals, Communities and Public Authorities. Journal of Criminal Investigation and Criminology/, 69(4), 279-298.

Relations between police and private security officers: a case study of Serbia

In the last few years, under the influence of various circumstances, the demand for the private security industry has increased in Serbia. The aim of this research is to examine the extent and quality of cooperation between members of the public and private security sector as the mutual perception of its members because their relations are important for establishing a safe environment for citizens. The survey was conducted from February to June 2019 using a questionnaire among 190 police officers and 178 security personnel. The results of this research showed that mutual relations between the private security personnel and police officers are satisfactory, but also that members of private security look at these relations from a brighter side and have a very positive attitude towards members of the police, while members of the police view these relations more negatively. The results of this research can be used for planning campaigns to improve the relationships between police officers and security personnel.

Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V. M., Milojević, S., & Ivanović, Z. (2021). Relations between police and private security officers: a case study of Serbia. Security journal. doi:10.1057/s41284-021-00289-z

Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19

Purpose The aim of the study is to determine the perception of general public on the Serbian police behaviors in combating COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the perception of the citizens how successful the police units were in fulfilling their tasks. Design/methodology/approach Due to the state of emergency declared due to COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the restriction of movement and the need for social distance, the data collection for this study had to be conducted via the online survey platform (Google.doc). The study was conducted during March–April 2020, only four weeks after the state of emergency was declared. The participants were invited to complete the online questionnaire in their native language by using the snowball sampling strategy focused on recruiting the general public via social media tools. Findings Considering the fact that police officers are not sufficiently prepared and trained to respond in these specific circumstances, it is necessary to improve their engagement in the future by conducting appropriate training, procuring adequate resources, implementing adequate planning activities, etc. The results of the multivariate regressions of public perception preparedness subscale show that the most important predictor is gender and it explains 23.6% of the variance in preparedness subscale. The remaining variables did not have significant effects on preparedness. This model with all mentioned independent variables explains 6.1% of the variance of preparedness subscale. Originality/value Bearing in mind that there were no completed studies on public perception of police behaviors about the COVID-19 disaster in Serbia, the research has a considerable scientific and social importance.

Reference – Janković, B., & Cvetković Vladimir, M. (2020). Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19 – The case of Serbia. Policing: An International Journal, 43(6), 979-992. doi:10.1108/PIJPSM-05-2020-0072

Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia – a study from selected municipalities

This article presents the results of a qualitative study of household earthquake and community-level preparedness in Serbia and its relationship to various demographic factors. A series of 1,018 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in eight Serbian municipalities. The results show that the population is generally unprepared, with low percentages of reported enhanced preparedness levels. In addition to presenting its findings, the study also considers future research directions, including using this study as a basis for more detailed research and to assist in facilitating community-led programs and strategies to increase earthquake safety. Keywords: geography, natural hazards, earthquake, preparedness, household, survey, Serbia

Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Ronan, K., Shaw, R., Filipović, M., Mano, R., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2019). Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia: A study of selected municipalities. Acta Geographica, 59(2), 28-42. doi:10.3986/ags.5445

Knowledge and Perception of Secondary School Students in Belgrade about Earthquakes as Natural Disasters

The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragićević, S., Petrović, M., Mijaković, S., Jakovljević, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about earthquakes as natural disasters. Polish journal of environmental studies, 24(4), 1553-1561. doi:10.15244/pjoes/39702

Citizens attitudes about emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia

Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. 2500 people from the area of 19 out of the total number of 190 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multistage sampling (personal interview). Survey results show that only 43.1% of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves from epidemics. The mean value of citizens’ preparedness to respond is 2.98 out of 5 and 28.2% of respondents are absolutely unprepared to respond. The results show that in higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women compared to men; respondents with university degrees compared to those who have completed primary school; respondents who have completed high school with honors compared to respondents who have completed high school with good grades, etc. Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The research results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond to emergencies caused by epidemics.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens Attitudes about the Emergency Situations Caused by Epidemics in Serbia. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47(8), 1213-1214.

Gender differences in stress intensity and coping strategies among students – Future emergency relief specialists

Introduction. Assisting students face high academic demands which, together with interpersonal, intrapersonal and professional requirements, can be a significant source of stress. The aim of the research was to examine the intensity and frequency of the source of stress, coping strategies and identify gender differences among students, future assisting professionals. Methods. An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted amongst the students of the University of the Belgrade Faculty of Security (Serbia) who, after graduation, will acquire the title of a security manager responsible for human resources in the civil sector. The data were collected in the period October/November 2018. The authorized questionnaire SSM-30 by Jović (Stress scale for the young – 30) was used, which enables students to assess the tress situations intensity on a scale from 1 (minimum) to 10 (maximum intensity). The SSM-30 questionnaire is a combination of the standard Life Events Scale – Holmes Rashe Life Events Scale, also known as the Social readjustment Rating Scale and life events characteristic for the student population. The questionnaire also included the sample demographic characteristics –gender, and a year of study. The SSM-30 scale includes a list of stressful events and stress coping mechanisms shown in the results. Results. The most common sources of stress in both genders were social and academic ones: death in the family, critical illness in the family, an accident of a person I love, unwanted pregnancy, lie by lose people, disagreement with parents, loss of a study year, crisis, uncertainty after graduation and partner’sinfidelity. The most frequently used mechanisms for controlling and overcoming stress were mostly social: talking with friends, listening to music, family support, frequent walks, socializing and going out, using the Internet, frequent sleep, intense physical activity, crying and relaxation. Statistically significant differences between the gender – female students demonstrated self-worth of higher intensity during the majority of stressful situations, as they use different stress coping mechanisms from their male students. Conclusion. The results obtained with regard to the assessment of stressors and the use of specific mechanisms for coping indicate the necessary additional education of students in this field in order to be more focused and open for free professional help, when necessary.

Reference – Gačić, J., Jović, J. S., Terzić, N., Cvetković, V., Terzić, M., Stojanović, D., & Stojanović, G. (2021). Gender differences in stress intensity and coping strategies among students – Future emergency relief specialist. Vojnosanitetski pregled/ Military-medical and pharmaceutical review, 78(6), 635-641.

Disaster risk communication: Attitudes of Serbian citizens (Komunikacija o rizicima od katastrofa: stavovi građana Srbije)

The objective of this research was to examine the citizens’ attitudes to various factors influencing the implementation of effective disaster risk communication in the Republic of Serbia. In addition, the research aims to scientifically describe the predictors of successful disaster risk communication. Using an online survey questionnaire, based on the snowball principle, 243 respondents were surveyed during July 2021. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis used to assess the explanatory power of six selected variables (gender, age, education, marital status, employment, and income level) on the perception of disaster risk communication show that the most important predictors of risk awareness are income level and gender. The obtained results have multiple scientific and practical importance for the improvement of integrated disaster risk communication through the process of improved understanding of the demographic and socio-economic perspective of communication. Predmet istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje stavova građana o različitim činiocima uticaja na sprovođenje efikasne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, cilј istraživanja predstavlјa naučna deskripcija prediktora uspešne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa. Korišćenjem onlajn anketnog upitnika, a po principu snežne grudve, sprovedeno je anketiranje 243 ispitanika tokom jula 2021. godine. Rezultati višestruke linearne regresione analize korišćene da se proceni eksplikativna moć šest izabranih varijabli (pol, godine, obrazovanje, bračni status, zaposlenost i visina prihoda) na percepciju komunikacije rizika od katastrofa pokazuju da je najznačajniji prediktor informisanosti o rizicima nivo prihoda i pol ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati su od višestrukog naučnog i praktičnog značaja za unapređenje integrisane komunikacije rizika od katastrofa kroz proces pobolјšanog razumevanja demografske i socio-ekonomske perspektive komunikacije.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Radovanović, M., Milašinović, S. (2021). Disaster risk communication: Attitudes of Serbian citizens. Sociological review, 55 (4), 1610-1647.

Naučni rad u međunarodnom časopisu

State of Public Health at the Local Level in Serbia: Longitudinal Research (Stanje javnog zdravlja na lokalnom nivou u Srbiji: longitudinalno istraživanje)

The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health in local self-government units in 2021, with the consideration of data from 2020 and 2019. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health: social care for the public health of the city/municipality in regard to the physical, mental, and social health of the population; health promotion and disease prevention; the environment and health; working environments and population health; the organization and functioning of the health system; and actions in emergency situations. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, the total number of air samples on an annual level for PM25s, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Permanent Conference of Cities and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status. Furthermore, we determined that the units of local self-governments that appointed a coordinator of the health council identified vulnerable groups in the analysis of the state of health four and a half times more often. In contrast, the units of local self-governments that prepared health status analyses could be used to identify vulnerable groups to a six times greater extent within the framework of the health status analysis. The results showed that in improving the state of public health at the local level, it is necessary to provide systematic institutional support to cities and municipalities in exercising their responsibilities. Based on these results, recommendations were made for the further development of support, i.e., the planning of further activities aimed at strengthening the capacity of the health councils and local self-government units in this area.

Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Tanasić, J.; Živković-Šulović, M.; Ćurić, N.; Milojević, S. State of Public Health at the Local Level in Serbia: Longitudinal Research. Preprints 2023, 2023010166 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202301.0166.v1).0430.v1).

Reducing the Risk of Disasters Caused by Epidemics (Smanjivanje rizika od katastrofa izazvanih epidemijama)

Epidemics are the most common natural phenomena that have occurred throughout the entire history of human society. Depending on the type of disease and the development of the collective immunity that society had acquired by then, the consequences of epidemics were usually very severe. Precisely because of this, the aim of the paper is a scientific description of the way in which the prescribed preventive measures should be applied from the epidemiological, security, economic, legal and other aspects, so that the society, through the mechanisms of the state, can defend and rehabilitate the consequences of an epidemic of an infectious disease. Eliminating the epidemic’s impacts is a very difficult issue. In particular, there is an infectious illness epidemic that is spreading uncontrolled throughout society on the one hand. In order to introduce a quarantine that restricts the epidemic’s progress and, if the quarantine lasts long enough, to end the epidemic, contact between members of the social group must be broken. On the other side, the cessation of communication between members of a social group also signifies the cessation of all facets of life in that society, including economic ties, education, growth of culture, scientific research, etc.

Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Vujanović, S.; Ivanov, A. Reducing the Risk of Disasters Caused by Epidemics. Preprints.org 2023, 2023050564. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0564.v1.430.v1).

The Role of Social Media in the Process of Informing the Public About Disaster Risks (Uloga društvenih medija u procesu informisanja javnosti o rizicima od katastrofa)

Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.

Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. ., Nikolic, A. ., & Ivanov, A. . (2023). The role of social media in teh process of informing the public about disaster risks. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(2), 104-119. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2392121c

Religion Influence on Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study of Serbia (Uticaj religije na smanjenje rizika od katastrofa: studija slučaja Srbije)

Human perception of nature and God have always been inextricably linked. In order to understand nature and its inherent processes, including various natural hazards, the reasons for their origin were often attributed to God’s will, suffering for sin and the similar. Fear of material and human losses prompted a man to pray and offer sacrifices/gifts and other rituals to appease the “wrath of the gods”. The progress of civilization and technology has not alleviated the destruction and trauma that natural disasters inflict on all aspects of social life. A major obstacle to this is the exponential population growth in vulnerable areas. The frequency of natural disasters and the fa-talistic attitudes that limit the effective fight against them have motivated religious communities and individuals to cooperate with international and international organizations and institutions to reduce the risk of local disasters. Believers thus receive the necessary psychological and financial assistance and support from religious communities during all phases of disaster management. Therefore, the subject of this paper is a comprehensive examination relationship between the degree of religiosity of the population and how this connection impacts the policy of reducing disaster risk. The aim of the research is to scientifically describe the nature of the relationship between the degree of religiosity of citizens and different segments of disaster risk reduction.

Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion Influence on Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study of Serbia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(1), 66-81. https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2023.5.1.6

Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China (Komparativna analiza sistema upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Nemačkoj, SAD-a, Rusiji i Kini

The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied.

Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1

The predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system (Prediktivni model stavova građana o rizicima uvođenja smrtne kazne u krivično-pravnom sistemu Srbije)

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variable in citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to which total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the criminal justice system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, marital status, education, income, and age. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing death penalty in the criminal justice system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings. The presented model can be used for a more detailed understanding of people’s attitudes regarding the support and opposition to the introduction of death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Bugarski, T., Martinović, J. (2022). The predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system, Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 27 (2), 7–43.

Relationship between demographic and environmental factors and knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters (Povezanost demografskih i ekoloških faktora i znanja učenika srednjih škola o prirodnim katastrofama)

The subject of quantitative research is to examine the connection between demographic (gender, age) and environmental factors (family, school and media) and knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. Bearing in mind the orientation of the research design on determination of character and strength of relationships of demographic and environmental factors with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters, research has explicative goal. The authors use the method of interviewing high school students to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. The study included 3,063 students of secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Results suggest the existence of links between gender, success achieved in school and education of parents and the knowledge of students about natural disasters. The results also indicate that the education of students at school and within family does not affect the knowledge, but affects their perception on natural disasters. Bearing in mind the geographical space of Serbia, the study is based only on the Belgrade region, so the findings can be generalized only to the population of students in this area. Research findings indicate potential ways to influence students to raise level of knowledge about natural disasters to a higher level. Given the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the study results can be used for policies of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. Key words: natural disasters, high schools, knowledge, perception, demographic factors, environmental factors.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Stanišić, J. (2015). Relationship between demographic and environmental factors with knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 65(3), 323-340.

Endangering the security of local communities in emergency situations caused by floods (Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama)

Starting from the increasingly frequent natural and anthropogenic emergencies in Serbia, the goal of scientific research is scientific description and explication of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on citizens’ perception of the level of endangering the safety of local communities in flood emergencies. About 248 adult citizens in the area of the city of Belgrade were surveyed by the method of random sampling, according to the snowball principle. The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant correlation between gender, the level of education of the respondents and the perception of different dimensions of security threats. In contrast, the existence of a statistically significant correlation between the perception of endangering the safety of local communities and the age of the respondents was established. The conducted research contributes to the improvement of the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge in the field of emergency management. The implications of the research are multiple and they enable decision-makers to design, develop and implement strategies and campaigns aimed at improving the safety of local communities from the consequences of natural emergencies. Polazeći od sve učestalijih prirodnih i antropogenih vanrednih situacija na području Srbije, cilj naučnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna deskripcija i eksplikacija uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na percepciju građana o nivou ugrožavanja bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama. Metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja, po principu snežne grudve, anketirano je 248 punoletnih građana na području grada Beograda. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost između pola, nivoa obrazovanja ispitanika i percepcije o različitim dimenzijama ugrožavanja bezbednosti. Nasuprot tome, utvrđeno je postojanje statistički značajne povezanosti percepcije ugrožavanja bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica sa starošću ispitanika. Sprovedeno istraživanje doprinosi unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda naučnog saznanja u oblasti upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama. Implikacije istraživanja su višestruke i one omogućavaju donosiocima odluka da osmisle, razviju i implementiraju strategije i kampanje usmerene na unapređenje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica od posledica prirodnih vanrednih situacija.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama. Politika nacionalne sigurnosti, 13 (22), 81-105.

Public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters (Percepcija javnosti o klimatskim promenama i njihovom uticaja na prirodne katastrofe)

The aim of the research is the examination of the factors influencing the public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding testing the central hypothesis where education is the predicting variable of public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent of the total scores of the main dependent variables (perception of vulnerability to climate change, perception of the climate change impact on natural disasters, knowledge and fear scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, age, marital status, education level, and employment status. A series of 208 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the beginning of 2020 on the central squares in the selected cities in Serbia, Belgrade (76.92%) and Sremska Mitrovica (23.08%). The results showed that education level was the most effective predictor of the mentioned research variables. Besides, employment status has been found to affect perceptions of vulnerability, while age affects the perceptions of climate change. Based on the obtained results, policies and strategies to improve people’s awareness of climate change must take into account a comprehensive understanding of behavioral dispositions.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Grbić, L. (2021). Public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 71(1), 43-58.

Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires (Pripremljenost privatnog obezbeđenja za katastrofe izazvane požarima)

The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.

Private Security Preparedness for Disasters Caused by Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards (Pripremljenost privatnog obezbeđenja za katastrofe izazvane prirodnim i antropogenim opasnostima)

The subject of the research is to examine the private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. In addition, the relationship between preparedness levels and various demographic and socio-economic factors is examined. The survey was anonymous with 4-point Likert scale questions (1- I absolutely disagree; 4- I absolutely agree). It was conducted at the University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies in Belgrade, during the initial course for obtaining a private security license and the course for combating domestic violence were attended by members of the police from all over Serbia. Data for the study were collected from a total of 178 members of private security. The research was conducted from April to June 2019. Within the first part of the questionnaire, there were questions concerning demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents (gender, age, education, marital status, working experience, served military status), while the second part contained questions about the private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards (e.g perception of the degree of responsibility due to the type of work performed in case of natural and anthropogenic disasters, perception of the level of preparedness of a private insurance company, knowledge of safety procedures for disaster response, evaluation of the response efficiency of first responders, etc.). The results of the multivariate regressions of preparedness subscale showed that variables (e.g., gender, age, education, marital status) were not significantly affected by preparedness. Predmet istraživanja je ispitivanje pripremljenosti privatnog obezbeđenja za katastrofe izazvane prirodnim i antropogenim hazardima. Pored toga, ispituje se odnos između nivoa pripremljenosti i različitih demografskih i socio-ekonomskih faktora. Anketa je bila anonimna sa pitanjima od 4 tačke na Likertovoj skali (1- apsolutno se ne slažem; 4- apsolutno se slažem). Sproveden je na Univerzitetu za kriminalistiku i policijske studije u Beogradu, tokom početnog kursa za dobijanje licence za privatno obezbeđenje i kursa za suzbijanje nasilja u porodici pohađali su pripadnici policije iz cele Srbije. Podaci za studiju prikupljeni su od ukupno 178 pripadnika privatnog obezbeđenja. Istraživanje je sprovedeno od aprila do juna 2019. godine. U okviru prvog dela upitnika bila su pitanja koja se tiču demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika ispitanika (pol, godine, obrazovanje, bračno stanje, radno iskustvo, vojni status), dok drugi deo je sadržao pitanja o spremnosti privatnog obezbeđenja za katastrofe izazvane prirodnim i antropogenim hazardima (npr. percepcija stepena odgovornosti zbog vrste posla koji se obavlja u slučaju prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, percepcija stepena pripremljenosti privatnog lica). osiguravajuće društvo, poznavanje bezbednosnih procedura za reagovanje u slučaju katastrofe, procena efikasnosti reagovanja onih koji prvi reaguju itd.). Rezultati multivarijantne regresije podskale pripremljenosti pokazali su da spremnost nije značajno uticala na varijable (npr. pol, starost, obrazovanje, bračni status).

Reference: Cvetković, V., & Janković, B. (2020). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(1), 23-33.

Security risks of climate change: case study of Belgrade (Bezbednosni rizici klimatskih promena: studija slučaja Beograd)

Based on the negative impact of climate change, the aim of quantitative research is to examine models for predicting the impact of demographic and sociocultural factors on citizens’ attitudes to security risks of climate change. Using the random sample method, during the 2019, a survey of citizens was conducted in Belgrade’s central square and included 438 respondents. The results of the research show that the conceived prediction model is statistically significant, and that the attitude of the respondents is influenced by different predictors, the most important of which is the level of education, age and sex of the respondents. Starting from the obtained research results, it is necessary to devise and implement educational programs for improving the awareness of citizens about the negative implications of climate change.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, (2019). Security risks of climate change: case study of Belgrade. Sociological Review, 53(2), 596–626.

Examination of citizens’ attitudes towards providign support to vulnerable people and voluntereeing during disasters (Ispitivanje stavova građana o pružanju podrške ugroženim licima i volontiranju tokom katastrofa)

The subject of quantitative research is to examine the factors influencing citizens’ attitudes towards assisting vulnerable people and volunteering during natural disasters. In this paper, the authors examine the relationship between gender, age, level of education, marital status, employment, income level and perception of personal religiosity, and the attitudes to assisting vulnerable people and volunteering. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 2500 citizens in the area of 19 local communities endangered by the consequences of natural disasters. The results of the survey show that 29% of respondents would provide assistance to vulnerable people in the form of money, 18,2% in the form of food and water, 21,6% in clothing and footwear, 23,3% would volunteer, while 4,6% would engage in shelter centers for endangered people. In addition, it was found that there was no statistically significant relationship between the attitudes towards providing assistance in the form of money and the employment status. As well as, attitudes about volunteering and provision of food and water assistance are not related to the employment status of respondents, etc. The results of the research can be used to improve the management system in natural disasters and to create appropriate educational programs for establishing a more efficient and comprehensive system of assistance to vulnerable people and the operation of volunteer organizations. Key words: natural disasters, attitudes about helping, providing assistance, volunteering. Predmet ovog kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje faktora koji utiču na formiranje stavova građana o pružanju pomoći ugroženim lјudima i volontiranju za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. U radu autori ispituju poveza-nost pola, godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja, bračnog statusa, zaposlenosti, visine prihoda i percepcije lične religioznosti sa stavovima o pružanju pomoći ugroženim lјudima i volontiranju. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi 29% ispi-tanika pružilo pomoć ugroženim lјudima u vidu novca, 18,2% u vidu hrane i vode, 21,6% u vidu odeće i obuće, 23,3% bi volontiralo, dok bi se 4,6% angažovalo u centrima za prijem ugroženih lјudi. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost stavova o pružanju pomoći u vidu novca sa sta-tusom zaposlenosti. Takođe, stavovi o volonterstvu i pružanju pomoći u vidu hrane i vode nisu povezani sa statusom zaposlenosti ispitanika itd. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje sistema upravlјanja u pri-rodnim katastrofama i stvaranje odgovarajućih obrazovnih programa za uspostavlјanje efikasnijeg i sveobuhvatnijeg sistema pružanja pomoći ugroženim lјudima i rada volonterskih organizacija.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Milašinović, S., & Lazić, Ž. (2018). Examination of citizens’ attitudes towards providing support to vulnerable people and volunteering during disasters. Journal for social sciences, TEME, 42(1), 35-56.

Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness (Znanje učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu kao element pripremljenosti za poplave)

The consequences of the floods that inundated the territory of Serbia in 2014 indicated a high level of citizen unpreparedness to respond to the situation. Starting from this fact, the basic idea of this research is to examine the level and correlation of certain factors with the students’ knowledge about floods as natural disasters. The aim of the research is a scientific explanation of the correlation between students’ knowledge about floods and these factors. The research consisted of a survey conducted on a sample of 3,498 respondents who make up 8.96% of the students population. The respondents were students from 19 secondary schools, out of a total of 54 at the territory of 11 affected municipalities of the city of Belgrade. The research results suggest that flood related knowledge is influenced by the students’ gender, education and employment status of parents, education acquired in school and in the family, while the knowledge of safety procedures for responding to floods is influenced by fear, gender and the educational level of parents. These results can be used in creating educational programme strategies to enhancing preparedness for response.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Lipovac, M., & Milojković, B. (2016). Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness. Journal for social sciences, TEME, 15(4), 1259-1273.

Fear and floods in Serbia: Citizens preparedness for responding to natural disaster (Strah i poplave u Srbiji: pripremljenost građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe)

The consequences of the floods that had affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing who do not have the fear are not doing anything to prepare themselves to react in such situations, they are confident in their own abilities to cope with the consequences of floods, etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia there has never been conducted a research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, gender, preparedness for response, Serbia.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2016). Fear and floods in Serbia: Citizens preparedness for responding to natural disaster. Matica Srpska Journal of Social Sciences, 155(2), 303-324.

Perceptions of private security: А case study of students from Serbia and North Macedonia (Percepcija privatnog obezbeđenja: studija slučaja studenata iz Srbije i Severne Makedonije)

In the last two decades of the 21st century, significant development of the private security industry has taken place in Serbia and North Macedonia. However, the private security industry in these two countries did not reach professional standards as in other countries of the former Yugoslavia. The aim of this paper was to determine students’ perceptions of private security and its employees. The survey data were collected using an anonymous survey of 354 students (296 from Serbia and 58 from North Macedonia). In both countries, attitudes are heterogeneous, but a relatively small number of respondents have expressed a high level of perception of private security. The research has shown that gender, as one of demographic characteristics, has its role in shaping young people’s views on private security, that is, the female population has more positive views about private security guards, their integrity, and the nature of the private security job. The findings offer policy-makers and private security companies the opportunity to develop new strategies to improve public attitudes towards private security.

Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2019). Perceptions of private security: А case study of students from Serbia and North Macedonia. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 24(3), 59-73.

Inovative solutions for flood risk management (Inovativna rešenja za upravljanje rizicima od poplava)

Starting from the importance of innovative solutions for improving the needs of different practitioners as flood risk managers, the purpose of this review was to describe and analyze, evaluates, and prioritizes the various available different innovative solutions that have sufficient potential to be useful and used by practitioners. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using the DAREnet knowledge base (an integral feature of the DAREnet online community platform) which identified critical challenges for flood management and the relevant field or source of innovation, as well as the current scientific literature in the field of disaster studies. A fourth stage selection procedure identified candidate original or review papers and evaluated the degree to which papers met predetermined requirements for inclusion extracted from prior systematic reviews. Included in the study were over 100 studies that met the requirements for predetermined inclusion. The findings of this review showed that there is a huge untapped potential for innovative solutions in the field of prevention, preparedness, civil protection, communication, cooperation, etc. The findings of this review contribute to a growing body of knowledge regarding innovative solutions for flood risk management useful for practitioners. Keywords: disasters, floods, risk management, innovative solutions, DAREnet.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Martinović, J. (2020). Inovative solutions for flood risk management. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(2), 71-100.

Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade (Percepcija rizika od požara u stambenim objektima u Beogradu)

Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Polazeći od učestalosti i ozbiljnosti požara u stambenim zgradama na području Beograda, u ovom radu su prikazani rezultati istraživanja o percepciji rizika građana od požara u stambenim zgradama. Serija od 322 intervjua licem u lice obavljena je početkom 2017. godine u Beogradu. Rezultati multivarijantne regresije percepcije rizika od požara u zgradama pokazuju da je najvažniji prediktor uočenog rizika od požara u zgradama strah, starost, status zaposlenja, nivo prihoda i bračni status. Preostale varijable (npr. pol, nivo obrazovanja, prethodno iskustvo) nisu imale značajan uticaj. Ispitanici koji imaju strah, koji su u braku, imaju veća primanja, a starije osobe doživljavaju veći stepen rizika u odnosu na one koji nemaju straha, žive sami, imaju niža primanja i mlađe osobe. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti za unapređenje nivoa bezbednosti građana kroz podizanje njihove svesti o rizicima od požara u stambenim objektima osmišljavanjem i korišćenjem odgovarajućih edukativnih programa i kampanja. Ključne reči: opasnost od požara; Percepcija; požari u zgradama; Beograd.

Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.

Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade (Demografska, socio-ekonomska i psihološka perspektiva percepcije rizika od katastrofa izazvanih poplavama: studija slučaja Beograd)

Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see into how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. In accordance with what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities-Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski venac, Grocka and Čukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and with the aim of examining the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socioeconomic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent authorities , institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.

Reference – Perić, J., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 31-43

Comparative analysis of disaster risk management policies in the region of south-east Europe (Uporedna analiza politika upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa u regionu jugoistočne Evrope)

Using measures for sustainable development and reducing the risk of disasters in order to protect the population, goods and the environment is the duty of every state in the fight against security challenges that disasters bring. Disaster risk reduction is a multidisciplinary policy designed to implement various measures to strengthen community resilience and preparedness for disasters. The region of Southeast Europe is recognized as extremely endangered by natural disasters. The countries of the region, especially their national risk management policies, continue to be based in part on solutions from earlier times. The subject of the research is focused on the analysis of disaster risk management policies in the countries of Southeast Europe, their comparison and review of similarities and differences. The countries of this region base their policies on similar solutions aimed at reducing the risk of disasters. There are shortcomings in the full implementation of the adopted international frameworks in the national risk management policies and normative-legal frameworks in certain countries of this region

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Todorović, S. (2021). Comparative analysis of disaster risk management policies in the region of south-east Europe. International yearbook Faculty of Security Studies, 1, 7-17. doi:10.20544/IYFS.39.1.19.P01

Earthquake risk perception in Belgrade: implications for disaster risk management (Percepcija rizika od zemljotresa u Beogradu: implikacije na upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa)

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents’ preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.

Reference – Planić, J. & Cvetković, V. (2021) Earthquake Risk Perception in Belgrade: Implications for Disaster Risk Management. Preprints 2021, 2021100397 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1).

Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction (Model požarne bezbednosti u stambenim zgradama: implikacije za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa)

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the fire safety behavior model for residential buildings in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a requested and collected questionnaire from 540 respondents during April 2020. The study’s objective was to determine to what degree the education level and gender influence the prediction of the fire safety behavior model (individual preparedness, personal security, fire risk, knowledge on fire protection) for residential buildings in Serbia. The multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor of individual preparedness, personal security, and fire risk perception was gender. On the other hand, education level, ownership status, and monthly income did not significantly affect individual preparedness for fire protection, personal security, fire risk, and prevention knowledge. Also, the results showed the main reasons for not taking preventive actions are the high cost of the equipment then, not being familiar with the exact measures to take, believing that the emergency services would provide them with the necessary assistance, the lack of time etc. The obtained results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond timely and appropriately to fires in residential buildings and create programs and campaigns to improve awareness among the general public.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragašević, A., Protić, D., Janković, B., Nikolić, N., & Predrag, M. (2021). Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction. SSRN Electronic Journal.

Disaster Risk Reduction System in the Republic of North Macedonia (Sistem smanjenja rizika od katastrofa u Republici Severnoj Makedoniji)

The subject of interest in this paper is the presentation and elaboration of the disaster risk reduction system in North Macedonia, through the analysis of the strategic and legal framework, the established national platform and the institutions that are part of it, as well as their competencies. The term “disaster risk reduction system” is used in the paper, implying two subsystems: a crisis management system and a protection and rescue system, which are the result of the highest state strategic documents and the adopted legal framework. Disaster risk reduction implies an overall coordinated, multisectoral approach, interdisciplinary in nature, including all social entities (from citizens to the most complex social organizations). The assumption for achieving this goal implies the realization of a situation that would be closest to the desired one in terms of the “risk management” process. On the other hand, the social way of life in the modern world implies a daily change in the way of life and especially an increase in the so-called “manufactured risks”, which are basically risks that are created by the way people live. In order to achieve the stated goals in full capacity, North Macedonia has many tasks and challenges ahead of it. Namely, risk management should overall contribute to increasing the resilience of society, which in the simplest sense of the word should ensure maximum predictability of risks and threats, their prevention or handling in a way that will cause the least consequences, ensuring a normal and usual way of life of the citizens. Predmet interesovanja u ovom radu je predstavljanje i razrada sistema smanjenja rizika od katastrofa u Severnoj Makedoniji, kroz analizu strateškog i pravnog okvira, uspostavljene nacionalne platforme i institucija koje su u njenom sastavu, kao i njihovih nadležnosti. . U radu se koristi termin „sistem za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa” koji podrazumeva dva podsistema: sistem upravljanja krizama i sistem zaštite i spasavanja, koji su rezultat najviših državnih strateških dokumenata i usvojenog zakonskog okvira. Smanjenje rizika od katastrofa podrazumeva sveobuhvatan koordiniran, multisektorski pristup, interdisciplinarnog karaktera, uključujući sve društvene subjekte (od građana do najsloženijih društvenih organizacija). Pretpostavka za postizanje ovog cilja podrazumeva realizaciju situacije koja bi bila najbliža željenoj u smislu procesa „upravljanja rizikom“. S druge strane, društveni način života u savremenom svetu podrazumeva svakodnevnu promenu načina života i posebno povećanje takozvanih „proizvedenih rizika“, koji su u osnovi rizici koji nastaju načinom na koji ljudi žive. Da bi u punom kapacitetu ostvarila navedene ciljeve, Severna Makedonija ima pred sobom mnogo zadataka i izazova. Naime, upravljanje rizikom treba sveukupno da doprinese povećanju otpornosti društva, što u najjednostavnijem smislu reči treba da obezbedi maksimalnu predvidljivost rizika i pretnji, njihovo sprečavanje ili rukovanje na način koji će izazvati najmanje posledice, obezbeđujući normalan i uobičajen način života građana. Предметот на интерес во овој труд е приказ и елаборација на системот за намалување ризици од катастрофи во Северна Македонија, преку анализа на стратешката и правната рамка, воспоставената национална платформа и институциите кои влегуваат во негов состав, како и нивните надлежности. Во трудот се користи терминот „систем за намалување ризици од катастрофи“, подразбирајќи притоа два потсистеми: систем за управување со кризи и систем за заштита и спасување, кои се резултат на највисоките државни стратешки документи и усвоената законска рамка. Намалувањето на ризиците од катастрофи подразбира севкупен координиран, мултисекторски пристап, интердисциплинарен по својата природа, вклучувајќи ги сите општествени субјекти (од граѓаните до најсложените општествени организации). Претпоставката за постигнување на оваа цел подразбира остварување на состојба која би била најблиску до посакуваната во однос на процесот на „управување со ризиците“. Од друга страна, општествениот начин на живот во современиот свет подразбира секојдневна промена на начинот на живот и особено зголемување на таканаречените „произведени ризици“, кои во основа се ризици кои се создаваат од начинот на живеење на луѓето. За да се остварат во полн капацитет наведените цели, Северна Македонија има пред себе многу задачи и предизвици. Имено, управувањето со ризиците треба севкупно да придонесе кон зголемување на отпорноста на општеството, што во наједноставна смисла на зборот треба да обезбеди максимална предвидливост на ризиците и заканите, нивно спречување или справување на начин кој ќе предизвика најмалку последици обезбедувајќи нормален и вообичаен начин на живот на граѓаните.

Reference – Ivanov, A, Babanoski, K., Cvetković, V.M. (2023). Disaster Risk Reduction System in the Republic of North Macedonia, Bezbednost.

The Predictive Model of Citizens’ Attitudes About the Risks of Introducing the Death Penalty in the Legal System: A Case Study of Serbia

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Republic of Serbia legal system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the legal system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socioeconomic variables: gender, marital, education, income, and age. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variables citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system of Serbia. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of the death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing the death penalty in the legal system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings.

Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Bugarski, T.; Ristivojević, B.; Milošević, G.; Martinović, J. The Predictive Model of Citizens’ Attitudes About the Risks of Introducing the Death Penalty in the Legal System: A Case Study of Serbia. Preprints 2021, 2021080524 (doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0524.v1).

Rad u tematskom zborniku vodećeg međunarodnog značaja

The NATO expansion in Europe – alliance of liberal states

Alliances are well-known in world history. In the framework of international relations, several theoretical explanations are applied to answer the questions of why and how states enter into alliances. The traditional approach explains the alliance through the assumptions of the theory of balance of power. Game theory is also a theoretical approach to analyze the behavior of states used in academic and strategic analysis. In this paper, the basic assumption about the behavior of the states of the collective West is the theory of balance of threat. In the geographical sense, the subject of analysis is Eastern and South-Eastern Europe as a response to the behavior of the states. When faced with a significant external threat, states can balance or join. Balancing is defined as an alliance with other states against a current threat; the association is brought to the association with the source of danger. This theory is presented through an analysis of state decisions on critical issues in international security depending on whether states balance or join by Stephen Walt, systematically exposed in the capital work “The Origin of Alliances“. In this paper, the subject of analysis is the expansion of the NATO pact after the end of the Cold War, trying to give possible answers to the question of why the countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe “joined” this military alliance after the fall of the “Iron Curtain”.

Reference – 1. Ivanov, A., Babanoski, K., & Cvetković, V. (2023). The NATO expansion in Europe – alliance of liberal states. International scientific conference, Macedonia. 14th International Scientific Conference, the strategic and security concept for the countries of South-East Europe At: Republic of North Macedonia.

The role of the police of Montenegro in combating fan hooliganism

In recent years, hooligan incidents in Montenegro have become more frequent and violent. Hooliganism at sports events is becoming recognized as a serious problem by citizens, legislators, and other state institutions. Violence at sports events in Montenegro exists, but it still does not represent a major security problem. States deal with this security problem in different ways, primarily by passing appropriate regulations, but in solving this problem in all states, the police seem to play a primary role. In recent years, we have witnessed a proactive approach by the police to this problem. This is precisely where the lack of the Montenegrin police, which has good police units that act repressively on hooligan outbursts, can be seen. However, the Montenegrin police do not have narrowly specialized units dealing exclusively with this problem, which will collect and exchange information about hooligans, as well as the National Office for the Exchange of Information on the Security of Football Competitions (NFIP), which is a prerequisite for the establishment and successful international cooperation in this field. field. The research presented and analyzed statistical data in the period 2018-2021. year, which refers to the actions of the Montenegrin police during the security of public gatherings, especially sports events. Based on them, it can be concluded that the Montenegrin police play a significant role in opposing fan hooliganism. Members of the police in Montenegro are adequately prepared to counter fan hooliganism, as far as repressive actions are concerned. All of the above instils confidence in citizens that the police of Montenegro will succeed, together with other state bodies, in adequately opposing fan hooliganism.

Reference -2. Janković, B., Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A. (2023). The role of the police of Montenegro in combating fan hooliganism. International scientific conference, Macedonia… International scientific conference, Macedonia. International scientific conference, Macedonia. 14th International Scientific Conference, the strategic and security concept for the countries of South-East Europe At: Republic of North Macedonia.

Harmonizing wildfires risk assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF project

Wildfires risk assessment plays a key role in each phase of the wildfire cycle, enabling the shift from fire suppression to prevention activities while improving decisions for response and restoration activities. Moreover, it enables synergies between fire and landscape management for achieving an integrated fire management approach. Because wildfires’ complexity depends on different meteo-climatic, physics and human aspects, wildfire risk assessment and mapping still lack a consolidated science-based methodology as it is for other natural hazards. Such a gap limits its adoption across all different authorities involved in wildfire management, for local, national and regional governments. Moreover, it affects the capacity to properly handle transboundary aspects, considering that wildfires are not limited by national borders. The IPAFF project proposes an approach to develop a common methodology, starting from evaluating wildfires risk assessment capacities in Western Balkans and Turkey. Leveraging the European guidelines on risk assessment and tightening the focus on wildland fires, the analysis assesses capacities considering the following aspects: i) the legal and institutional framework shaping roles and responsibilities of authorities for fire and landscape management at different governmental levels; ii) coordination mechanisms and procedures; iii) data, methods, and tools; iv) mobilization of technical and managerial expertise. Each aspect is broken down into diverse criteria ranked through qualitative structured interviews addressed to a panel of key stakeholders and decision-makers in each country, identifying weaknesses and threats to be handled for developing and implementing wildfire risk assessment. Results are elaborated in the formulation of a regional technical guideline, consolidated through focus groups, calibrating and harmonizing the guideline’s content, considering the results of the capability assessment conducted in each country. The set of recommendations for elaborating the guideline, will contribute in developing a common regional approach for wildfire risk mapping in Western Balkans and Turkey, considering EU and international standards.

Reference – Fiorucci, P., Pernice, U., Cvetković, V. M., & Rajkovcevski, R. (2022). Harmonizing wildfires risk assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF project.

Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-economic and Psychological Factors of Impact (Društvena otpornost na katastrofe izazvane poplavom: demografski, socio-ekonomski i psihološki faktori uticaja)

Starting from the increasingly frequent consequences of floods in local communities in Serbia, this paper aims to examine the level and impact of selected demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on the level of social resilience to flood disasters. The research was conducted using a provided questionnaire and then collected online for 261 respondents during August 2021. The research results show a statistically significant influence of gender, previous experience, social ties, trust in public institutions and involvement in risk communication processes on the level of social resilience to flooding disasters. In addition, research has found that strengthening social resilience requires strengthening social networking, trust and solidarity among members of the local community. The obtained research results can significantly help all stakeholders formulate strategies, plans, and initiatives to improve social resilience to the consequences of flood disasters and create preconditions for building a safe and sustainable environment.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Ivković, T. (2022). Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-economic and Psychological Factors of Impact”. 12th International Conference of the International Society for the Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 21-23 September 2022. Hosted by Babeș-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca (Romania), Research Institute for Sustainability and Disaster Management based on High Performance Computing and Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering.

Resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents

Keeping in mind that Serbia does not have a nuclear power plant and that there are justified reasons to introduce nuclear energy, it is necessary to examine citizens’ level of information and preparedness for such disasters, i.e. the possibility of coping with a specific nuclear accident. Also, several nuclear power plants are in operation near Serbia, so caution and sufficient knowledge should be kept in mind and prevention measures would be implemented in this type of disaster. The research subject is the study of risk perception and preparedness for potential nuclear accidents. The research was conducted on the territory of Belgrade using multi-stage random sampling with 256 respondents. The research results indicate a severe need to inform and educate citizens about risk management in disasters caused by nuclear accidents in Serbia, bearing in mind that the results showed that preparedness is not at a significant level. Based on the research results, preconditions are created to create appropriate strategies, programs, and campaigns that would greatly help improve the awareness and knowledge of citizens about the correct and safe way to react in such situations.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Rikanović, S., Knežević, S. (2022). Resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents. IAI Academic Conference Proceedings, Budapest Conference, 5 May 2022.

Innovative solutions for disaster early warning and alert systems: a literary review

In different parts of the world, decision-makers and risk managers use specific and particularly complex disaster early warning and alert systems to protect people and their material goods from the harmful effects of various disasters in a timely, efficient and appropriate manner. However, concerning the level of scientific-technological and economic development of certain countries, such systems can differ in the many characteristics that make them more efficient in specific situations. Guided by this, the subject of the paper is reflected in the systematic identification, analysis, and classification of the best innovative solutions of early warning systems in regard to their usability and efficiency. To find appropriate innovative solutions, it was performed a search of different electronic databases. The findings of this review showed that there is a huge potential for innovative solutions in the field of disaster early warning and alert systems.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2021). Innovative solutions for disaster early warning and alert systems: a literary review. Eleven International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, November 9–10, Belgrade, University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies.

The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction

As of recently, the role of social networks in the disaster risk management process has become significantly important. This is largely due to a huge number of smartphones with installed applications (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) that allow their users to share information in the form of text, images and video. By analyzing and describing the multiple possibilities and significance of social networks in various stages of disaster risk management (before, during and after), the authors conducted a research of quantitative research tradition with the aim of examining the attitudes of the students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies and the Faculty of Security Studies University of Belgrade in terms of possibilities, reliability and motivation for the use of social networks in such situations. The results obtained in the research show a high degree of motivation of respondents for the use of social networks in situations immediately before, but also during and after the manifested consequences of disasters. Emphasizing the undeniable advantages of using the social networks in disaster risk management, as well as the results of the research, decision-makers could create certain programs to improve citizen security and reduce disaster risks by using information platforms of the social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Dragićević, S., & Novković, I. (2018). The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction. Eight International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, October 2–3, 2018.

Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters caused by floods

In this paper that presents the quantitative study, authors examined the influence of parenthood on the citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, 19 of these were randomly selected. In selected municipalities the research was undertaken in those areas and households that have been or are potentially the most vulnerable in relation to the level of high water with the use of a multi-stage random sample. In the research it was applied test method based on the technique of interviewing. The research results indicate that heavy rains encourage parents in higher percents to think about preparedness for responding in relation to citizens who are not parents. Parents to a greater extent as the reasons for not taking preventive measures point out that their assistance in this matter would not mean much, that they expected that in actions of protection and rescue primarily would be engaged citizens from flood-affected areas, then they know the safety procedures for response and they would be to a greater extent evacuated in friends’ places, etc. In domestic theory on disasters, there has been an insufficient number of experimental researches, while at the same there are no papers on the relationship between parenting and the preparedness of citizens to respond. Thus, the practical aim of the research was to contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods. Namely, the research indicates the way how should influence on parents in order to raise preparedness for response to a higher level.

Reference – Cvetković, M. V., Ivanov, A., & Milojković, B. (2016). Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by floods. VI International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance, Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies godine.

Police Deployment in Emergency Situations Caused by the Abuse of Weapons of Mass Destruction

In their line of work police officers face a large number of emergency situations-criminal incidents related to hazardous materials that can be abused as the weapons of mass destruction. Deployment of police officers in cases of terrorist attacks has its specific features, since it is carried out in extreme circumstances with outstanding dangers to life and health. Apart from the emergency medical service and fire and rescue units, the police have a decisive role in the elimination of consequences of such incidents. In these emergency situations, police staff offers primarily assistance to the injured persons, prevents the expansion and elimination of consequences of the emergency situation, and pays considerable attention to the criminal processing of the scene of incident. Apart from giving the overview of police officers deployment in priority tasks, this paper also gives a comprehensive review of their position in the emergency management system, where the emergency situation has been caused by the abuse of this destructive weapon.

Reference – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2012). Police Deployment in Emergency Situations Caused by the Abuse of Weapons of Mass Destruction. International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, 1-2 march, 2012. godine.

Cooperation of South-East European countries in Emergency Situations (Saradnja zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope u vanrednim situacijama)

Emergency situations do not recognize national borders and often acquire regional and global character. South-East European countries are permanently exposed to various emergency situations, such as earthquakes, floods, snow storms, droughts, forest fires etc. In certain cases, these countries are incapable to cope with catastrophic consequences of these emergencies with their own capacities, but are forced to seek help from their neighbours or international organizations. Possible means of help and cooperation demand internationally institutionalized, coordinated and adequate answer of available forces and means by all subjects of protection and rescue before, during and after the occurrences of emergency situations. In this respect, international-legal foundation of cooperation and offering help to the SouthEast European countries in cases of emergencies and operations of humanitarian nature are firstly observed. After that, important international organizations and associations which, helped by legal platform, realize different aspects of regional cooperation of SouthEast European countries at eliminating consequences of emergency situations, as well as numerous regional initiatives and strategies for reduction and estimation risks from emergencies were analysed. Vanredne situacije ne prepoznaju nacionalne granice i često dobijaju regionalni i globalni karakter. Zemlje Jugoistočne Evrope su stalno izložene raznim vanrednim situacijama, kao što su zemljotresi, poplave, snežne oluje, suše, šumski požari itd. prinuđeni su da traže pomoć od svojih suseda ili međunarodnih organizacija. Moguća sredstva pomoći i saradnje zahtevaju međunarodno institucionalizovan, koordinisan i adekvatan odgovor raspoloživih snaga i sredstava svih subjekata zaštite i spasavanja pre, za vreme i posle nastupanja vanrednih situacija. U tom smislu, prvenstveno se uvažava međunarodno-pravna osnova saradnje i pružanja pomoći zemljama jugoistočne Evrope u slučajevima vanrednih situacija i operacija humanitarne prirode. Nakon toga, analizirane su značajne međunarodne organizacije i asocijacije koje uz pomoć pravne platforme realizuju različite aspekte regionalne saradnje zemalja jugoistočne Evrope na otklanjanju posledica vanrednih situacija, kao i brojne regionalne inicijative i strategije za smanjenje i procenu rizika od vanrednih situacija.

Reference – Mlađan, D., Milojković, B., Baras, I., Cvetković, V. (2013). Cooperation of South-East European countries in Emergency Situations. International Scientific Conference, The Balkans between Past and Future: Security, Conflict Resolution and Euro-Atlantic Integration, 05-08 June 2013, Ohrid, 279-291.

Household supplies for a natural disaster: factor of influence on the possession of supplies

The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of certain factors on household possession of supplies necessary for the survival of the consequences of natural disasters. Design/methodology/approach – Quantitative research was conducted by using a survey strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The first step, which was related to the primary sampling units included selection of parts of the community for conducting research. The second step, which was related to research cores, included selection of streets or parts of streets at the level of primary sampling units and finally selection of households for surveying 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Findings – It was found that only 24.6% of respondents have supplies, while 61.5% have no supplies for surviving natural disasters. On the other hand, 37.2% of respondents possess supplies of food for 4 days, while only 12% have supplies of food for 1 day. It was found that 17.6% of the respondents have a transistor radio, 40% flashlight, 40.6% shovel, 25.8% hack, 33.6% hoe and spade, and 13.2% Fire extinguisher. The results of inferential statistical analyses show that there is a statistically significant influence of gender, education, marital status, parenthood, employment, income level, level of religiosity, completed military service on having supplies to survive the consequences of natural disasters. On the other hand, there was no influence of previous experiences on having supplies. Originality/value – research results allow the design of strategies aimed at raising the level of preparedness of households with regard to their supplies to natural disasters.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). Household supplies for a natural disaster: factor of influence on the possession of supplies. The 8th International Scientific Conference – Security concepts and policies – new generation of risks and threats, at Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia 4 – 5 June 2017.

Informisanje građana o vanrednim situacijama: činioci uticaja i modaliteti (Informing of citizens about emergency situations: influence factors and modalities)

The goal of quantitative research is a scientific explication of the influence of certain factors on the modalities of informing citizens about emergency situations. Special attention was paid to examining the influence of the following factors on information: gender, age, education, marital status, employment, and parenting status, risk perception, and previous experience. The research was conducted in 2015, and 2500 citizens in 19 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multi-stage random sampling. The obtained results of descriptive statistical analyzes show that most citizens were informed about emergency situations through television 58.9%, then through the press, 31.7%, household members 31.2%, internet 28.7%, radio shows 15.7%, at school 14.3% and finally within the family 12%. The results of inferential statistical analyses show a statistically significant correlation between the way of informing through television with gender, marital status, and employment status. On the other hand, informing through radio shows is related to education and previous experience. Gender, education, and marital status have a statistically significant impact on informing citizens through the press and the Internet. Examining the modalities of informing citizens about emergency situations is of great scientific and social importance. The obtained research results can greatly influence the determination of the most adequate way of informing certain categories of citizens. The originality of the research is reflected in the unexamined state and modalities of the most optimal informing of citizens about emergency situations in Serbia. Keywords: security, emergency situations, information, factors, citizens. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja određenih činioca na modalitete informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama. Posebna pažnja je bila usmerena ka ispitivanju uticaja sledećih činioca na informisanje: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, status zaposlenosti i roditeljstva, percepcija rizika i prethodno iskustvo. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Dobijeni rezultati deskriptivnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je najviše građana o vanrednim situacijama informisano preko televizije 58,9%, zatim preko štampe 31,7%, ukućana 31,2%, interneta 28,7%, radio emisija 15,7%, u školi 14,3% i u na kraju u okviru porodice 12%. Rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost načina informisanja preko televizija sa polom, bračnim statusom i statusom zaposlenosti. Sa druge strane, način informisanja preko radio emisija je povezan sa obrazovanjem i prethodnim iskustvom. Na informisanje građana preko štampe i interneta statistički značajno utiču pol, obrazovanje i bračni status. Ispitivanje modaliteta informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama ima veliki naučni i društveni značaj. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja u velikoj meri mogu uticati na opredeljenje izbora najadekvatnijeg načina informisanja pojedinih kategorija građana. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u neispitanom stanju i modalitetima najoptimalnijeg informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama u Srbiji. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, informisanje, činioci, građani.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Informing of citizens about emergency situations: influence factors and modalities. Paper presented at the 10th International Conference – Crisis management days: Security environment and challenges of crisis management, 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.

Knowledge and perceptions of students of the Academy of criminalistic and police studies about natural disasters

The subject of quantitative research is analysis of the factors influencing the knowledge and perceptions of first year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies about natural disasters. The authors used survey method to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disaster. Of the total number of first-year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies, 360 of them were examined. The results show that respondents have a high level of knowledge on natural disasters and the best knowledge on safety procedures when handling droughts. Limitation of research relates to the fact that the research is based only on the first year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies. Considering the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to natural disasters.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A., & Sadiyeh, A. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of students of the Academy of criminalistic and police studies about natural disasters. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days”, Belgrade, Volume II, 181-195

Classification of Emergency Situations (Klasifikacija vanrednih situacija)

There is no universally accepted definition or classification of an emergency situation. Adoption of a universally and generally acceptable classification of emergency situations represents one of the important challenges the researchers, competent governmental authorities, and international organizations have to face. The classification of emergencies in this paper has been made on the basis of analyses of different sources, such as course books, articles, internet sites, relevant international and national reports, etc. Based on this, several criteria have been proposed for defining classification of emergencies. Justification and acceptability of classification of emergency situations constitute an important prerequisite for their valid recording and better quality analysis, as well as for the international cooperation of governments, authorities in charge, members of the scientific community and non-governmental organizations from that field of work. This paper gives a short overview of the classification of emergency situations, with a special focus on the USA, the Russian Federation, China, the Netherlands, Germany and Serbia. Ne postoji univerzalno prihvaćena definicija ili klasifikacija vanredne situacije. Usvajanje univerzalne i opšteprihvatljive klasifikacije vanrednih situacija predstavlja jedan od važnih izazova sa kojima se moraju suočiti istraživači, nadležni državni organi i međunarodne organizacije. Klasifikacija hitnih slučajeva u ovom radu napravljena je na osnovu analiza različitih izvora, kao što su udžbenici, članci, internet stranice, relevantni međunarodni i nacionalni izveštaji itd. Na osnovu toga predloženo je nekoliko kriterijuma za definisanje klasifikacije vanrednim situacijama. Opravdanost i prihvatljivost klasifikacije vanrednih situacija važan su preduslov za njihovo valjano evidentiranje i kvalitetniju analizu, kao i za međunarodnu saradnju vlada, nadležnih organa, članova naučne zajednice i nevladinih organizacija iz te oblasti rada. Ovaj rad daje kratak pregled klasifikacije vanrednih situacija, sa posebnim osvrtom na SAD, Rusku Federaciju, Kinu, Holandiju, Nemačku i Srbiju.

Reference – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2013). Classification of Emergency Situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance., Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 275-291.

Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters

Natural disasters increasingly threaten the safety of the mankind. Not only that, in past decades there has been an obvious increase in the number of natural disasters, but it is also present an increase in their destructiveness. This results in a higher loss of life, material and non-material damage. In addition, compromising critical infrastructure prevents or limits the implementation of vital state functions (governance, health, education, energy, economic, social, and general security functions), which is further reflected in the safety of states and citizens. Despite the technological development of mankind, societies are increasingly threatened. It is clear that the disasters and their impact on people and critical infrastructure cannot be prevented, but mechanisms for prediction and early warning of disasters can be improved that the resilience and capacity for faster and more efficient revitalization of endangered values and goods can be increased. Besides the degree of destruction, the response strategy in an emergency situation will depend on the type of disaster, but also on the kind of critical infrastructure and specific goods and values that are threatened. In this regard, the paper gives an overview of the scope and the content of (still undetermined) concept of critical infrastructure, the term and the phenomenology of natural disasters, the consequences of geophysical, hydrological and meteorological disasters on critical infrastructure and critical infrastructure protection capabilities against natural disasters. Key words: safety, critical infrastructure, natural disasters, the consequences of threats to critical infrastructure by natural disasters, protection of critical infrastructure from natural disasters.

Reference – Mijalković, S., Cvetković, V. (2013). Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters. Belgrade, zbornik radova – National Critical Infrastructure Protection, Regional Perspective, 2013, 91-102.

Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations

Floods as hydrological emergencies, every day increasingly threaten the safety of people and their property. As such, they intensely attract the attention of researchers in the field of geospatial, technical, natural, information and other sciences, but also experts in the field of emergency who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred method of scientific research and drawing conclusions about the phenomenology of flood is a statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of flood in period from 1900 until 2013 at the global level. Thereby, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step it was taken raw (unprocessed) data in format of “Excel” file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis it is examined the distribution of the total number and impacts of floods on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 countries by the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the geospatial distribution it is analyzed the total number and consequences of floods by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences. Therefore, for more effective and efficient protection and emergency response caused by the deleterious effect of flooding, it is needed to comprehensively explore specified natural phenomena, so that the subject of the paper will be form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of manifestation of flooding. In addition, it is important to mention that geospatial and temporal analysis of floods gives meaning, content and value to a comprehensive effort to better understand natural hazards and their effects, in order to timely protect people from them, and in this case, adjust to the flood risk.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance (3-4 march 2014), Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 371-389.

Comparative analysis of national strategies for protection and rescue in emergencies in Serbia and Montenegro with emphasis on Croatia (Komparativna analiza nacionalnih strategija zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama u Srbiji i Crnoj Gori sa naglaskom na Hrvatsku)

Emergencies caused by different types of disasters (natural, technological and complex) are as old as human history. They have always created serious problems for people and their communities, forcing them to take appropriate measures to ensure their prevention, mitigation, response and recovery. Keeping in mind the security implications of emergencies for the population, the overall tangible and intangible assets and the environment, each country has a primary responsibility for its own sustainable development on one hand, and for implementation of effective measures to reduce the risk of emergencies on the other hand. Therefore, the state and its authorities shall promptly undertake measures aimed at protecting people and their material assets and the environment from the impacts of emergency situations, i.e. to undertake measures to effectively reduce the risk of emergencies caused by disasters. In addition, one of the most important measures is certainly incorporating the integrated and multifaceted approach to disaster risk reduction into policies, planning and programming related to sustainable development, assistance, rehabilitation and revitalization activities in post-catastrophic and post-conflict situations in countries at risk disaster. The countries that develop policy, legislative and institutional framework for disaster risk reduction and those that are able to develop and track progress through specific and measurable indicators have greater capacity to manage risks and to achieve a widely accepted consensus on the inclusion and fulfilling measures of risk reduction across all sectors of the society. Certainly, on the list of significant measures aimed at reducing the risk of disaster is the adoption of the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations. Generally speaking, national strategies are 201 aimed at a comprehensive understanding of the source of current and future risks, the establishment of the concept of organized activities of the government and other institutions to reduce emergencies caused by all forms of major natural and technological disasters, to mitigate their consequences through prevention actions, as well as development of adequate state of readiness and capacity of the whole community. Therefore, the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations is a crucial foundation on which all other activities aimed at reducing disaster risk rest. That is why the author has done a detailed analysis of the National Strategy for Protection and Rescue of Serbia and Montenegro-with respect to Croatia, in order to compare their contents, based solutions, and implemented international standards. In addition, special attention is paid to the analysis of grounding of such strategies, keeping in mind the objective risk assessments of possible emergencies, which are determined by presenting statistical analysis of each country. Vanredne situacije izazvane različitim vrstama katastrofa (prirodnim, tehnološkim i složenim) stare su koliko i ljudska istorija. Uvek su stvarali ozbiljne probleme ljudima i njihovim zajednicama, prisiljavajući ih da preduzmu odgovarajuće mere kako bi osigurali njihovo sprečavanje, ublažavanje, reagovanje i oporavak. Imajući na umu bezbednosne implikacije vanrednih situacija za stanovništvo, ukupnu materijalnu i nematerijalnu imovinu i životnu sredinu, svaka zemlja ima primarnu odgovornost za svoj održivi razvoj, s jedne strane, i za sprovođenje efikasnih mera za smanjenje rizika od vanrednih situacija na druga ruka. Zbog toga će država i njene vlasti odmah preduzeti mere usmerene na zaštitu ljudi i njihovih materijalnih dobara i životne sredine od uticaja vanrednih situacija, tj. Da preduzmu mere za efikasno smanjenje rizika od vanrednih situacija izazvanih katastrofama. Pored toga, jedna od najvažnijih mera je svakako integrisanje i višestrani pristup smanjenju rizika od katastrofa u politike, planiranje i programiranje u vezi sa održivim razvojem, aktivnostima pomoći, rehabilitacije i revitalizacije u postkatastrofalnim i postkonfliktnim situacijama u zemljama na rizična katastrofa. Zemlje koje razvijaju politički, zakonodavni i institucionalni okvir za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa i one koje su sposobne da razvijaju i prate napredak kroz specifične i merljive indikatore imaju veći kapacitet za upravljanje rizicima i postizanje široko prihvaćenog konsenzusa o uključivanju i ispunjavanju mera rizika smanjenje u svim sektorima društva. Svakako je na spisku značajnih mera usmerenih na smanjenje rizika od katastrofe usvajanje nacionalne strategije za zaštitu i spasavanje u vanrednim situacijama. Uopšteno govoreći, nacionalne strategije imaju za cilj sveobuhvatno razumevanje izvora trenutnih i budućih rizika, uspostavljanje koncepta organizovanih aktivnosti vlade i drugih institucija za smanjenje vanrednih situacija izazvanih svim oblicima većih prirodnih i tehnoloških katastrofa, do ublažiti njihove posledice preventivnim akcijama, kao i razvojem adekvatnog stanja spremnosti i kapaciteta cele zajednice. Stoga je nacionalna strategija zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama presudan temelj na kojem počivaju sve ostale aktivnosti usmerene na smanjenje rizika od katastrofe. Zbog toga je autor uradio detaljnu analizu Nacionalne strategije zaštite i spašavanja Srbije i Crne Gore – u odnosu na Hrvatsku, kako bi uporedio njihov sadržaj, zasnovana rešenja i primenjene međunarodne standarde. Pored toga, posebna pažnja se posvećuje analizi utemeljenosti takvih strategija, imajući u vidu objektivne procene rizika mogućih vanrednih situacija, koje se utvrđuju predstavljanjem statističke analize svake države.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2014). Comparative analysis of national strategies for protection and rescue in emergencies in Serbia and Montenegro with emphasis on Croatia. International conference: Macedonia and the Balkans, a hundred years after the world war I – security and euroatlantic integrations (3-5 june 2014). Skopje: University St. Kliment Ohridski – Bitola, Faculty of Security, 200-216.

Fires as threatening security phenomenon: factors of influence on knowledge about fires (Požari kao ugrožavajuća pojava bezbednosti: činioci uticaja na znanje o požarima)

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika o požaru kao ugrožavajućoj pojavi bezbednosti. Primenom višeetapnog uzorka, anketirano je 3063 učenika iz 13 srednjih škola sa područja grada Beograda. Deskriptivna statistička analiza pokazuje da za razliku od 95,4% ispitanika koji ističu da znaju, samo 63,6% stvarno zna šta je požar. Na pravilan način odreagovalo bi samo 57,1% ispitanika. Rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da na percepciju znanja učenika o požarima statistički značajno utiču pol, obrazovanje oca i majke, zaposlenost roditelјa, informisanje preko televizije, interneta i video igrica. Sa druge strane, na objektivno znanje o požarima utiču pol, obrazovanje oca i majke, informisanje preko televizije, radija i interneta. I na kraju, utvrđeno je da na poznavanje pravilnog načina reagovanja prilikom požara statistički značajno ne utiču pol i način informisanja preko televizije dok utiču godine starosti, obrazovanje oca i majke, zaposlenost roditelјa, informisanje preko interneta, video-igrica i radija. Razvijanjem bezbednosne kulture učenika u vezi požara kao ugrožavajućih pojava bezbednosti umnogome se mogu ublažiti posledice takvih događaja. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju obrazovanih programa učenika o požarima. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, požar, činioci, učenici, Srbija. This paper presents the results of quantitative research of factors influencing knowledge and perceptions of students about fire as threatening security phenomenon. Applying a multi-stage sample interviewed 3063 students from 13 secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that in contrast to the 95.4% of respondents who said they knew, only 63.6% really knows what is a fire. In a proper way will react only 57.1% of respondents. The results of inferential statistical analysis shows that the perception of students knowledge on fires significantly affect gender, education of father and mother, parents’ employment, information via television, Internet and video games. On the other hand, the objective knowledge on fires affect gender, education of father and mother, information via television, radio and the Internet. Finally, it was found that the knowledge of proper ways to react when fire happened is not significantly affected by gender and way of information via television, but affected by age, education of father and mother, parents employment, information via Internet, video games and radio. Developing students security culture in relation fire as a threatening security phenomenon in many ways can mitigate the consequences of such events. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing the educational programs of students about fires. Key words: security, natural disasters, fire, factors, students, Serbia.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2017). Fires as threatening security phenomenon: factors of influence on knowledge about fires. Paper presented at the Conference: 10th International Conference “Crisis management days“ – security environment and challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.

Protection of critical infrastructure from natural disasters (Zaštita kritične infrastrukture od posledica prirodnih katastrofa)

Critical infrastructure protection is one of the important measures to mitigate the consequences of natural disasters. As such, it has been recognized as a basis for maintaining the functionality of the community in emergency situations. It can be said that the main aim of protection of critical infrastructure from the impact of natural disasters is to maintain continuity in its functioning.Therefore, in the paper, the author analyzes the possibilities of protection of critical infrastructure from direct/indirect eff ects of natural disasters, with a special emphasis on structural and non-structural measures for their protection. In addition, special attention is paid to the phenomenological structure and consequences of different types of natural disasters on critical infrastructure. Zaštita kritične infrastrukture je jedna od značajnih mera ublažavanja posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Kao takva, prepoznata je kao osnova održavanja funkcionalnosti društvene zajednice u vanrednim situacijama. Slobodno se može reći da je glavni cilj zaštite kritične infrastrukture od uticaja prirodnih katastrofa održavanje kontinuiteta u njenom funkcionisanju. Naime, smanjenje uticaja prirodnih katastrofa na ljude i kritičnu infrastrukturu obuhvata intervencije sa ciljem sprečavanja ili smanjivanja mogućnosti fizičkog ugrožavanja i socijalnog remećenja. Pri tome, postoje dva dominantna tipa smanjenja uticaja prirodnih katastrofa, strukturalno i nestrukturalno.Strukturalno smanjenje podrazumeva dizajniranje, konstruisanje, održavanje i renoviranje fizičkih struktura i infrastruktura kako bi se oduprli fizičkim silama i udarima prirodnih katastrofa, dok nestrukturalna smanjenja obuhvataju napore za smanjenje izloženosti ljudske populacije, fizičkih struktura i infrastruktura uslovima opasnosti. Pristupi nestruktural- nog smanjenja uključuju zakonski donete urbanističke mere koje uzimaju u obzir moguće udare katastrofa; regulisanje razvoja u zonama visoke opasnosti kao što su tereni pod nagibom koji su skloni kližištima i priobalne zone kao meta olujnih talasa; i čak u nekim slučajevima otkup i izmeštanje zajednica ili delova zajednica.Upravo stoga, u radu autor analizira mogućnosti zaštite kritične infrastrukture od direktnih/indirektnih posledica prirodnih katastrofa, sa posebnim osvrtom na strukturalne i nestrukturalne mere njihove zaštite. Takođe, posebna pažnja se posvećuje fenomenološkoj strukturi i posledicama različitih vrsta prirodnih katastrofa po kritičnu infrastrukturu.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2014). Zaštita kritične infrastrukture od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Sedma međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravlјanja“. Hrvatska: Velika Gorica, 22. i 23. maj, 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.

Information systems and disaster risk management (Informacioni sistemi i upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa)

Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, intensity, while on the other hand they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapid addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visulation for modern disaster risk management are examined.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. Paper presented at the International scientific and professional conference – 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.

Influence of households distance on flood disaster preparedness in Serbia (Uticaj udaljenosti domaćinstva od reke na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji

The aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of distance households on the preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research was undertaken in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The survey results indicate that: people who live in a households up to 2 km away from sources of potential flooding for the most part taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, thinking about the readiness encourage them heavy rains, they know what’s floods, familiar security response procedures. In contrast, people who live in the household over 10 km away from sources of potential flooding in the slightest degree taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, would be engaged in one of the reception centers for victim assistance floods, to reflect on the readiness encourage them fixed rain. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, households distance, preparedness for response, Serbia. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja udaljenosti domaćinstva (kuće/stana) na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetnaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju: građani koji žive u domaćinstvu udaljenom do 2 km od izvora potencijalne poplave u najvećoj meri preduzeli su preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica, na razmišljanje o spremnosti podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše, znaju šta je poplava, poznaju bezbednosne procedure reagovanja. Suprotno tome, građani koji žive u domaćinstvu udaljenom preko 10 km od izvora potencijalne poplave u najmanjoj meri preduzeli su preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica, angažovali bi se u nekom od prihvatnih centara za pružanje pomoći žrtvama poplave, na razmišljanje o spremnosti podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije nikada sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje na posledice poplava. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane s obzirom udaljenost njihovog domaćinstva (kuće/stana) od reke kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, udaljenost domaćinstva, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). Uticaj udaljenosti naselja od reke na spremnost građana za reagovanje na poplave u republici Srbiji. Deveta međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravljanja“, Veleučilište Velika Gorica, Hrvatska, 12-13 aprila, Split.

Analysis factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about epidemics – Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o epidemijama kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o epidemijama. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o epidemijama statistički značajno utiču (p < 0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, obrazovanost oca i majke , uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, edukacija u školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, edukacija u školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, epidemije, učenici srednjih škola u Beogradu, faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju. The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to the epidemics as a natural disaster and security threat and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors use a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about epidemics. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3.548 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65.561 students), which equates to 5.4% of the population. From population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools randomly selected them is 13th. The research results shows that the students’ knowledge of the epidemics influence: gender, education of father and mother, success in school; the perception: gender, education of father and mother, education in school; and knowledge of safety procedures reactions: age, education of father and mother household with his grandfather, education in family and school. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. Research suggests how to affect secondary school students in order to raise the level of perception and knowledge about epidemics. Keywords: security, natural disaster, epidemics, Belgrade, secondary school students in Belgrade, factors of influence on knowledge and perception.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama. Deveta međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravljanja“, Veleučilište Velika Gorica, Hrvatska, 12-13 aprila, Split, 859-868.

Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of storms as a natural disaster (Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distrubucije oluja kao prirodnih katastrofa)

Reference – Cvetković, V., Stojković, D. (2016). Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of storms as a natural disaster, 2016. The international conference is organized by the Faculty of Security – Skopje – University St. Kliment Ohridski – Bitola in collaboration with Faculty of detectives and security – FON University – Skopje. International scientific conference – criminalistic education, situation and perspectives – 20 years after Vodinelic. Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, from 24th to 25th October 2014.

Floods in the Republic of Serbia – Vulnerability and human security (Poplave u Republici Srbiji – ugroženost i ljudska bezbednost)

Vulnerability and human security have been changing over time and depended on the physical, social, economic and environmental factors. In modern terms these phenomena have become multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral and dynamic. However, in addition to empirical changes with respect to the nature of security threats, the increase of vulnerability and threatening to human security, there have increased the analytical range in their understanding as well as the institutional changes within the security structures. Many countries have abandoned the attitude that the floods and flash floods as the most important natural hazards can be suppressed or controlled, i.e. that can be fought against or placed under full control. With that regard, the attitude of adoptive management of security and rescue from floods and flash floods becomes more and more prevalent, as well as flood risk adjustment or the principle of “living with floods”. Accepting such attitude, relating cultural values of the society, economy, institutional and functional possibilities for the purpose of mitigating vulnerability and providing human security proved prominent in the Republic of Serbia. The state has taken a series of reform steps in view of recognizing its own physical exposure to food risks. At the same time, after such great floods which endangered a large part of the country’s territory, the country recognized its social-economic weaknesses of the community, as well as the necessity to increase the capacity to mobilize the resources in mitigating vulnerability and facilitating human security. Key words: community, vulnerability, floods, resources, human security. Ranjivost i ljudska sigurnost su se menjali tokom vremena i zavisili su od fizičkih, socijalnih, ekonomskih i ekoloških faktora. Savremeno rečeno, ovi fenomeni su postali višedimenzionalni, multidisciplinarni, multisektorski i dinamični. Međutim, pored empirijskih promena u pogledu prirode bezbednosnih pretnji, povećanja ranjivosti i pretnji po ljudsku bezbednost, povećali su i analitički opseg u njihovom razumevanju, kao i institucionalne promene unutar bezbednosnih struktura. Mnoge zemlje su napustile stav da se poplave i bliske poplave kao najvažnije prirodne opasnosti mogu suzbiti ili kontrolisati, tj. protiv kojih se može boriti ili staviti pod potpunu kontrolu. S tim u vezi, stav usvojenog upravljanja zaštitom i spašavanjem od poplava i bliskih poplava postaje sve više i više, kao i prilagođavanje riziku od poplave ili princip „življenja sa poplavama“. Prihvatanje takvog stava, povezivanja kulturnih vrednosti društva, ekonomije, institucionalnih i funkcionalnih mogućnosti u cilju ublažavanja ranjivosti i obezbeđivanja ljudske bezbednosti pokazalo se istaknutim u Republici Srbiji. Država je preduzela niz reformskih koraka s ciljem prepoznavanja sopstvene fizičke izloženosti rizicima od hrane. U isto vreme, nakon tako velikih poplava koje su ugrozile veliki deo teritorije zemlje, zemlja je prepoznala svoje socijalno-ekonomske slabosti zajednice, kao i neophodnost povećanja kapaciteta za mobilizaciju resursa za ublažavanje ranjivosti i olakšavanje ljudskih sigurnost. Ključne reči: zajednica, ranjivost, poplave, resursi, ljudska sigurnost.

Reference – Gačić, J., Jakovljević, V., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Floods in the Republik of Serbia – vulnerability and human security. Twenty Years of Human Security: Theoretical Foundations and Practical Applications, University of Belgrade – Faculty of Security Studies, 277-286, April 2015.

Recognition and perception of risks and environmental hazards on the part of the student population in the republic of Macedonia

The subject of quantitative research in this paper is analysis of the knowledge and the perceptions of students from seven different faculties in different years of study. The authors used quantitative survey method to identify and describe the knowledge and the perceptions about the possible risk and disasters. 382 students from all years of study were examined. The results show that the respondents have a high level of knowledge on natural disasters and that there is a significant difference among students depending mostly on the year of study. There is also a difference in some perceptions between the students from “nonsecurity” and from “security” studies. The limitation of the research refers to the fact that the investigation is based only on students willing to participate in the answering of the questionnaire. Considering the evident lack of risks and hazards related to the Environment in Macedonia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can also be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to risks and hazards related to the Environment.

Reference – Ivanov, A., Cvetković, V., & Sudar, S. (2015). Recognition and perception of risks and environmental hazards on the part of the student population in the republic of Macedonia. In: Zlatko Žlogev i Oliver Bacanović, International scientific conference – Researching security – approaches, concepts and policies, 02-03. University “St. Kliment Ohridski”- Bitola Faculty of Security – Skopje, 173-199.

Environmental aspects of using nuclear energy (Ekološki aspekti korišćenja nuklearne energije)

Nuclear technological production of electricity is characterized as a low-carbon technology, which on the one hand, has key importance in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while on the other hand there are numerous controversies, defensive approach and anxiety due to the danger of nuclear accidents and solving the problem of radioactive waste. Starting from the actuality and importance of the issue of the use of nuclear energy in the context of solving environmental changes, the paper carried out a thorough review of literature. On this occasion, the paper carried out an insight into the existing relevant scientific knowledge in this field and a secondary analysis of the contents of documents of relevant international institutions, which within their competence publish data on the energy state and current emissions of greenhouse gases on a global level. The majority of papers emphasize the advantage of the use of nuclear energy in comparison with the generation of energy in the process of combustion of fossil fuels. It is primarily stated that small amounts of radioactive gases, which are regularly discharged under controlled conditions in the operation of nuclear power plants, cannot produce effects such as acid rain, smog, ozone depletion and do not contribute to an increase in temperature of the troposphere. However, the possibility of producing nuclear accidents and the severity of the consequences if radioactive isotopes leave the reactor uncontrollably, and the generation of radioactive waste results in a dilemma in the scientific and social community and creates a division in the acceptance of nuclear energy as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels.

Reference – Filipović, M., Cvetković, V., & Nešić, S. (2017). Environmental aspects of using nuclear energy. International scientific and professional conference 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. Ohrid, pp. 30-35.

Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods (Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa: koncepti i metode)

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods. International Scientific Conference “New directions and challenges in transforming societies through a multidisciplinary approach” 6th June, 2017, MIT University, City Gallery, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia.

Citizens education about floods: a Serbian case study (Edukacija građanja o poplavama: studija slučaja Srbije)

The aim of quantitative research is a scientific explication of the effects certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological citizens characteristics on citizens education in Serbia about floods. It is because of that that during the whole 2015 a series of 2,500 face-to-face interviews was conducted in 19 out of the 190 municipalities of the Republic of Serbia. The study population consisted of all adult residents of the local communities in which floods occurred, and the sample size complied with the geographical and demographic size of the community. Results of the descriptive statistical analysis showed 24.9% of respondents were educated about natural disasters at school, 40.2% in the family, 29.9% at work, 39.9% of respondents know where elderly, disabled and infants live, 14% noted that they knew the risks of floods, etc. The research findings indicated that there is a statistically significant correlation between the level of knowledge about natural disasters and sex, age, marital status levels of education, fear of disaster, previous experience and income level. On the other hand, education at school, within the family, at work is statistically significantly associated with age, the level of education, marital status and employment status. The awareness of where elderly, disabled and infants live was not statistically significantly related to sex, the level of education, marital status and previous experience. The research indicates how to raise the level of citizens’ knowledge starting from their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. The research originality lies in the uncharted impact of those factors on the citizens’ knowledge about natural disasters in Serbia. The results can be used for the design of strategies to improve citizens’ knowledge about the natural disasters caused by flooding.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Tarolli, P., Roder, G., Ivanov, A., Ronan, K., Ocam, A., & Kutub, R. (2017). Citizens education about floods: a Serbian case study. VII International scientific conference Archibald Reiss days, Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade.

Rad u vodećem časopisu nacionalnog značaja

Investigating students attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness (Istraživanje stavova i preferencija učenika prema multimedijalnom učenju o katastrofama u cilјu pobolјšavanja pripremlјenosti)

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding students’ attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness. The research was conducted during February and March 2021, where the respondents’ answers were collected by sending an online survey questionnaire electronically to the email addresses of high schools. The general hypothesis refers to verifying the claim that the application of multimedia in children’s education in schools about disasters ensures that students are acquainted with disasters and develop skills for safety and risk management in case of disasters. The regression model within the conducted research confirmed that the education of students through multimedia has the most significant impact on safety and risk management in disasters. Future directions of research in this field should move towards the analysis of different simulation models that can be of great help to acquaint students with the dangers arising from disasters. Given that simulation has proven to be an effective tool in acquiring knowledge, their application in educating students about disasters would inevitably have significant effects. Ovaj rad predstavlјa rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja u vezi sa stavovima i preferencijama učenika prema multimedijalnom učenju o katastrofama kako bi se pobolјšala spremnost. Istraživanje je sprovedeno tokom februara i marta 2021. godine i odgovori ispitanika su prikuplјeni slanjem online anketnog upitnika elektronskim putem na email adrese srednjih škola. Uzorak istraživanja je obuhvatio 376 učenika. Istraživanje je bilo usmereno ka velikom broju srednjih škola na teritoriji Republike Srbije. Međutim s obzirom na slab odziv, istraživanjem je obuhvaćeno 25 srednjih škola, što obuhvata oko 5% od ukupnog broja srednjih škola koje obrazuju decu na teritoriji Republike Srbije. Najveći broj učenika koji se odazvao na istraživanje je iz sledećih škola: Vazduhoplovna akademija i Sportska gimnazija iz Beograda, Tehnička škola “Ivan Sarić” i Hemijsko-tehnološka škola iz Subotice, Tehnička škola iz Vlasotinca i Tehnička škola iz Užica. Anketni upitnik se sastojao iz dva segmenta. Prvi segment se odnosio na opšta pitanja vezana za učenike. U ovom segmentu ispitanici su navodili opšta pitanja vezana za pol, godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja oca i majke, ko čini zajednicu u kojoj žive. Osim toga, u okviru ovog segmenta došlo se do informacija o tome u kojoj meri su oni upoznati sa različitim katastrofama i putem kojih izvora najviše dolaze do saznanja o istim. Pitanja su bila vezana i za to da li do saznanja o katastrofama dolaze kroz izučavanje drugih predmeta u školi i da li bi možda više voleli da imaju predmet koji bi se isklјučivo bavio analizom i upoznavanjem sa katastrofama. Zatim, kroz pitanja došlo se do saznanja da li škola sarađuje sa određenim stručnim institucijama po pitanju unapređenja znanja iz oblasti katastrofa, kao i da li su u taj proces uklјučeni roditelјi učenika. Ispitanici su naveli da li su članovi njihovih porodica bili učesnici nekih katastrofa. Opšta hipoteza se odnosi na proveru tvrdnje da primena multimedije u obrazovanju dece u školama o katastrofama obezbeđuje da učenici budu upoznati sa katastrofama i razviju veštine za bezbednost i upravlјanje rizikom u slučaju katastrofa. Regresioni model u okviru sprovedenog istraživanja potvrdio je da edukacija učenika kroz multimediju ima najznačajniji uticaj na bezbednost i upravlјanje rizicima u katastrofama. Kada je u pitanju efekat edukacije učenika o katastrofama, najveći učinak se postiže učenjem putem multimedije i korišće-njem simulacija za prikazivanje realnih događaja u okviru multimedijalnog sadržaja. Navedenim tvrdnjama dokazane su postavlјene hipoteze ovog rada i ostvaren cilј istraživanja. Na osnovu toga može se zaklјučiti da primena multimedije u edukaciji učenika znatno doprinosi smanjenju rizika od katastrofa, prevashodno kroz upravlјanje rizicima poznavanjem načina i metoda preventivnog i sigurnosnog delovanja u takvim situacijama. Doprinos istraživanja ogleda se u tome da se potvrdi značaj učenja o katastrofama na adekvatno reagovanje i sigurnosno delovanje usled njihovog nastanka, prevashodno kod dece i da se time utiče na smanjenje negativnih posledica katastrofa. Upoznavanjem učenika sa katastrofama, sa opasnostima koje one sa sobom nose, praktičnim iskustvima i evakuacionim putevima kao izlazima iz takvih situacija predstavlјa jedini način da se smanje rizici od katastrofa i da nauče da se ponašaju u takvim vanrednim okolnostima. Budući pravci istraživanja u ovoj oblasti trebalo bi da se kreću ka analizi različitih simulacionih modela koji mogu biti od velike pomoći da se studenti upoznaju sa opasnostima koje proističu od katastrofa. S obzirom da se simulacija pokazala kao efikasan alat u sticanju znanja, njihova primena u edukaciji učenika o katastrofama neminovno bi imala značajne efekte. Takođe, pomak u unapređenju znanja o katastrofama može da se sprovede i u okviru školskih programa, gde bi se uveo poseban predmet koji bi se bavio izučavanjem sadržaja vezanog za ovu problematiku. Prikazivanjem sadržaja putem multimedije učenici bi bili suočeni sa realnim situacijama i negativnim uticajima katastrofa. ali i upućeni kako da adekvatno reaguju i deluju u slučaju nastanka takvih situacija.

Reference – Krnjić, I., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Investigating students attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness. Bulletin of the Serbian geographical society, 101(2) 79-96.

Uloga društvenih mreža u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa: studija slučaja Beograd (The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction: a case study Belgrade)

Polazeći od teorije odlučivanja, koja objašnjava načine donošenja odluka, predmet istraživanja pred stavlјa ispitivanje uloge i značaja društvenih mreža u razli čitim fazama integrisanog upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa (ublažavanje, pripremlјenost, odgovor, oporavak) u Republici Srbiji. Metodom višeetapnog slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirana su 143 punoletna građanina na području grada Beograda. Iz bogate riznice dobijenih podataka, rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi jedna trećina ispitanika prosledila informacije u vezi s katastrofama čak iako nije sigurna da su takve informa ci je tačne odnosno istinite, što može prouzrokovati ozbilјne implikacije u procesu upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa. Sprovedeno istraživanje otvara nova istraživačka pitanja i aktuelizuje raznovrsne tematske okvire unutar kojih bi trebalo detalјnije preispitati sve dimenzije i faktore koji utiču na korišćenje društvenih mreža u procesu upravlјanja u katastrofama, odnosno procesima direktnog ili indirektnog smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Implikacije istraživanja su vrlo značajne, polazeći od toga da donosioci odluka u Srbiji moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti sve bržoj industrijalizaciji i razvoju savremenih tehnologija koje se mogu koristiti kako bi se ve ći broj života lјudi spasao u kraćem periodu. Starting from the decision theory that explains the ways of decision making, the subject of research is to examine the role and importance of social networks in different phases of integrated risk management (mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery) from disasters in the Republic of Serbia. Using the method of multi-stage random sampling, 143 adult citizens in the area of the city of Belgrade were surveyed. From the rich treasury of data obtained, the survey results show that one third of respondents would pass on information about disasters even if they are not sure whether such information is accurate or true, which can cause serious implications in the process of disaster risk management. The conducted research opens new research questions and actualizes various thematic frameworks within which all dimensions and factors influencing the use of social networks i n the process of disaster management, i.e. processes of direct or indirect disaster risk reduction, should be examined in more detail. The implications of the research are very important, starting from the fact that decision-makers in Serbia must pay special attention to the accelerating industrialization and development of modern technologies that can be used to save more lives in a shorter period of time.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Nikolić, M. (2021). Uloga društvenih mreža u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa: studija slučaja Beograd. Bezbednost, 61(3), 25-42.

Ugroženost žena od posledica prirodno izazvanih katastrofa: studija slučaja Svilajnac (Vulnerability of women to the consequences of naturally caused disasters: the Svilajnac case study)

Ugroženost građana od katastrofa rezultat je kako fizičkih tako i društvenih faktora. Studije istraživanja roda u katastrofama počivaju na činjenici da je rod primarni princip organizovanja društva i verovanju da se rodna dimenzija mora uzeti u obzir ako želimo da steknemo uvid u položaj svih ljudi koji žive u sredinama podložnim uticaju prirodnih opasnosti. Cilj istraživanja predstavljaju naučna deskripcija i eksplikacija rodne dimenzije ugroženosti građana opštine Svilajnac usled prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama 2014. godine. Korišćenjem slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je sto petnaest građana iz opštine Svilajnac. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je većina ispitanika bila direktno ugrožena destruktivnim posledicama poplavnih rizika. Međutim, istražene rodne razlike pokazale su da su žene samo psihološki ugroženije od muškaraca, s obzirom da je veći procenat žena izrazio osećaj straha i brige tokom poplava. Ovaj rad doprinosi već postojećoj rodnoj literaturi iz oblasti katastrofa, te omogućava bolje razumevanje različitih i rodno ustoličenih posledica prirodnih katastrofa na centralnom Balkanu koje se mogu iskoristiti za kreiranje rodno senzitivnih politika i strategija upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa.Citizens’ vulnerability to disaster is a function of both physical and social factors. Gendered disaster social science rests on the social fact of gender as a primary organizing principle of societies and the conviction that gender must be addressed if we are to claim knowledge about all people living in environments susceptible to natural hazards. The main goal of the research is scientific description and explication of gender dimension of citizens’ vulnerability to natural disasters caused by floods in Svilajnac municipality in 2014. One hundred fifteen citizens from Svilajnac were interviewed using multi-pass random sampling. We draw on social vulnerability theory to understand the ways in which such events are perceived and managed by citizens of different gender. Descriptive statistical analysis and chi-square test were employed to compare actual impacts. This study revealed that majority of the people felt directly threatened by the destructive consequences of flood hazards. All gendered impacts reported were not statistically significant, except for the psychological dimension of vulnerability because women tend to be more afraid and express more worry during floods. This paper contributes to the gender-focused literature that aims to provide a regional understanding of the differential and gendered consequences of natural disasters on men and women in the central Balkans. Results of this research can be used for improving gender-responsive national plans and strategies for disaster risk reduction.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Svrdlin, M. (2020). Ugroženost žena od posledica prirodno izazvanih katastrofa: studija slučaja Svilajnac. Bezbednost, 62(3), 43-61.

Examination of the factors that influence public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions (Ispitivanje faktora uticaja na percepciju javnosti o mitski zasnovanom ponašanju ljudi u uslovima katastrofa)

Starting from the importance of risk perception for taking certain preventive measures to protect people and their property from disasters, the subject of the research is to examine the factors influencing public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions. Using the random sampling method, 250 adult respondents were surveyed in the city of Belgrade, using a specially created and adapted survey questionnaire. The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant influence of gender, age, educational and economic factors on the public perception of human behavior in disaster conditions. The results of the research can be used to improve strategies and campaigns based on risk assessment, aimed at improving the safety of people in disasters. Polazeći od važnosti percepcije rizika za preduzimanje određenih preventivnih mera za zaštitu ljudi i njihove imovine od katastrofa, predmet istraživanja je ispitivanje faktora koji utiču na javnu percepciju mitski zasnovanog ljudskog ponašanja u uslovima katastrofe. Metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je 250 odraslih ispitanika u gradu Beogradu, koristeći posebno kreiran i prilagođen anketni upitnik. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da ne postoji statistički značajan uticaj pola, starosti, obrazovanja i ekonomskih faktora na percepciju javnosti o ljudskom ponašanju u uslovima katastrofe. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti za poboljšanje strategija i kampanja zasnovanih na proceni rizika, usmerenih na poboljšanje bezbednosti ljudi u katastrofama.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Jovanović, M. (2020). Examination of the factors that influence public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions. Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 100(2), 161-179.

Percepcija javnosti o pripremljenosti za biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama: implikacije na proces upravljanja rizicima (Perception of preparedness for biosphere disaster caused by epidemics: implications for risk management process)

Biosferske katastrofe među kojima su na prvom mestu epidemije, predstavljaju ozbiljnu pretnju bezbednosti ljudi. Polazeći od ozbiljnosti i karakteristika katastrofa izazvanih epidemijama, predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje prirode uticaja ličnih i društvenih faktora na percepciju javnosti o pripremljenosti za reagovanje na biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama. Korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je da je nivo pripremljenosti građana nizak i da su u većoj meri pripremljeni muškarci, obrazovaniji građani, nezaposleni i oni koji osećaju strah. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za kreiranje edukativnih kampanja usmerenih ka podizanju nivoa svesti i pripremljenosti građana. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, percepcija, epidemije, pripremljenost, upravljanje rizicima, Srbija. —– Biospheric disasters, among them the first place of the epidemic, pose a serious threat to human security. Starting from the seriousness and characteristic of disasters caused by epidemics, the subject of research is the examination of the nature of the impact of personal and social factors on the perception of the public on the preparedness to respond to biospheric disasters caused by epidemics. Two thousand and five hundred citizens from the area of nineteen local communities were interviewed using multi-pass random sampling. According to the obtained results, it was determined that the level of preparedness of the citizens is at a low level and that they are more prepared men, more educated citizens, the unemployed and those who feel fear. The results of the research can be used to create educational campaigns aimed at raising the level of awareness and preparation of citizens. Keywords: natural disasters, perception, epidemics,preparedness, risk management, Serbia.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2018). Percepcija javnosti o pripremljenosti za biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama: implikacije na proces upravljanja rizicima. Bezbednost, 60(3), 5-25.

Human Resource Management in Environmental Protection in Serbia (Upravljanje ljudskim resursima u zaštiti životne sredine u Srbiji)

Starting from the fact that the units of local self-government of the Republic of Serbia are not sufficiently oriented towards innovations related to human resources and the environment, the application of quantitative research tradition examines the positioning and understanding of certain procedures and decisions of human resources management regarding the functioning of the environmental protection system, on the one hand, and future strategies for changing the given system, on the other. A series of 105 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the year of 2016 in 105 of the 191 municipalities in the Republic of Serbia. Examination of the attitudes of the local self-government was carried out using a specially designed closed electronic questionnaire. The results of the multivariate regressions show that the most important predictor of the possible improvement of the environment is the size of the municipality. The remaining variables (e.g., human resources policy, human resources service) did not have significant effects on the ability to improve the environment. In more than half of local self-governments, there was no clearly defined human resources strategy in the field of environmental protection, an environmental protection service, an Environmental Action Plan, as well as an employment plan for waste management in local governments, etc. The research has shown that top managers of local governments agree that the management of human resources in environmental protection represents a significant opportunity to improve the quality of the environment. The results of the research can be used to improve the organization of human resource competence in environmental protection and the quality of a working and sustainable environment in the area of local self-government.

Reference – Nikolić, N., Cvetković, V., & Zečević, M. (2019). Human Resource Management in Environmental Protection in Serbia. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 100(1), 51-72.

Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Barriers to improvement preparedness for responding to natural disasters)

U radu koji predstavlja kvantitativno istraživanje izneti su rezultati ispitivanja koji se odnose na prepreke unapređenju mera spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Tom prilikom, primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 20,5% ispitanika misli da će im interventno-spasilačke službe pomoći, pa im mere spremnosti za reagovanje nisuni potrebne; 31,7% ispitanika ne smatra da su ugroženi ili da je njihovo domaćinstvo ugroženo od posledica katastrofa; 20,9% ispitanika ističe da nema vremena za to; 23,1% ispitanika misli da je preduzimanje tih mera veoma skupo; 19,4% smatra da nije sposobno za tako nešto; 22,8% ističe da nema podršku lokalne zajednice; 27% ističe da ne mogu sprečiti posledice prirodnih katastrofa ni na koji način. Rezultati inferencijalne statistike uticaja pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta, prethodnog iskustva i vojne obaveze pokazuju raznovrsne rezultate u pogledu njihove statističke povezanosti sa preprekama koje se odnose na spremnost za reagovanje.. Značaj sprovedenog istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda znanja o faktorima koji utiču na nizak nivo spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju modela unapređenja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, barijere, reagovanje, pol, roditeljstvo, zaposlenost, invaliditet, prethodno iskustvo, vojna obaveza. This paper presents the quantitative research results of the barrier improvement measures of preparedness to respond to natural disasters. The survey was conducted in 2015 in 19 local communities in Serbia. On that occasion, using a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed. Survey results show that 20.5% of respondents thought that his first responders already help him, such measures are not necessary; 31.7% of respondents thinks that himself or his household is not vulnerable from the consequences; 20.9% of respondents said that there is no time for that; 23.1% of respondents think that it is taking these measures very expensive; 19.4% think that it is not capable of such a thing; 22.8% declare that there is no support from the local community; 27% points out that it can not prevent the effects do not in any way. The results of inferential statistics, the influence of sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience and military obligations variety show results in terms of their statistical association with barriers readiness. The significance of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical and empirical stock of knowledge about the factors responsible for the low level of citizens’ readiness to respond to natural disasters. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing a model to improve the readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disasters, barriers, response, sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience, military service.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2017). Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Vojno delo, 69(2), 132-150.

Baze podataka o rizicima i informacioni servisi podrške odlučivanju u vanrednim situacijama (Risk database and management support information services for emergencies)

Prirodne i antropogene vanredne situacije predstavlјaju najozbilјniji scenario ugrožavanja bezbednosti koji uslovlјava upotrebu najsavremenijih informacionih servisa kao i korišćenje svih raspoloživih baza podataka o rizicima. U tom smislu, upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama je danas nezamislivo bez upotrebe različitih onlajn dostupnih servisa koji omogućavaju donosiocima odluka koji učestvuju u tom procesu da u kratkom vremenskom periodu sagledaju sve mogućnosti koje im stoje na raspolaganju. Predmet rada predstavlјa identifikacija, analiza i opis najznačajnijih karakteristika informacionih servisa (Copernicus emergency management servise, geographic information system) i otvorenih baza podataka o rizicima (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) koji su neophodni za efikasno upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama. Rezultati preglednog rada mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje znanja osoblјa interventno-spasilačkih službi o raspoloživim mogućnostima upotrebe informacionih servisa i baza podataka. Natural and anthropogenic emergencies represent the most serious scenario of compromising security, which conditions the use of state-of-the-art information services as well as the use of all available risk databases. In this regard, the risk management during emergiencies is unthinkable today without the use of various online services that enable decision-makers involved in the process to look at all the options at their disposal in a short period of time. The subject of the paper is the identification, analysis and description of the most important characteristics of information services (Copernicus emergency management services, a geographic information system) and open databases on risks (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) for effective risk management in emergencies. The results of the review work can be used to improve the knowledge of first responders about the available possibilities of using information services and databases.

Reference – Cvetković, V. (2018). Baze podataka o rizicima i informacioni servisi podrške odlučivanju u vanrednim situacijama – Risk database and management support information services for emergencies. Paper presented at the Šesto savetovanje upravljanje rizicima, Požarevac, 25-34.

Posledice prirodnih katastrofa: faktori uticaja na percepciju građana Srbije (Consequences of natural disasters: factors of influence on Serbian citizens perception)

Retki su danas događaji koji mogu baciti na kolena čitave lokalne zajednice kao što to čine ekstremne opasnosti poreklom iz prirode prouzrukujući ozbiljne katastrofe. Kao takve, one nanose ozbiljne posledice ljudima i njihovim materijalnim dobrima uprkos organizovanim pokušajima društva da se one ublaže. Preduzimanje preventivnih mera sa ciljem unapređenja zaštite od takvih događaja podrazumeva postojanje jasne svesti ljudi o mogućim posledicama, njihovim razmerama i ozbiljnostima. U vezi sa tim sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje u kojem su ispitani stavovi građana i njihova percepcija o posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Višeetapnim uzorkovanjem, anketnim ispitivanjem je obuhvaćeno oko dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest opština. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 23% ispitanika doživelo materijalne i 16% ispitanika nematerijalne posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Pri tome, statističke analize pokazuju da na nivo značajnosti od pet procenata na percepciju građana o materijalnim posledicama utiču sve posmatrane promenljive: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, prihodi, obrazovanje oca i majke, zaposlenost, roditeljstvo, dok na percepciju nematerijalnih posledica ne utiču pol, obrazovanje, obrazovanje majke i zaposlenost. Pri tome, upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama naprosto nameće potrebu za kontinuiranim istraživanjima uticaja prirodnih katastrofa na ljude iz čega i proizilazi naučna i društvena opravdanost sprovedenog istraživanja. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, kvantitativno istraživanje, posledice, građani, Srbija. Today its very rare the events that can throw the knee entire local community like extreme hazards originating from the nature causing a serious disaster. As such, they cause serious consequences to people and their material goods despite the organized efforts of society to mitigate them. Preventive measures with the aim of improving the protection of such events implies the existence of a clear awareness of people about the potential consequences of their scale and seriousness. In this regard we have conducted quantitative research which examined the attitudes of citizens and their perception of the consequences of natural disasters. With multistage sampling, a survey has covered about two thousand five hundred of citizens from the area of the nineteen municipalities. The survey results showed that 23% of respondents experienced material and 16% of non-pecuniary consequences of natural disasters. In addition, statistical analysis showed that the significance level of five percent, perception of citizens about the material consequences were affect all observed variables: gender, age, education, marital status, income, education of father and mother, employment, parenting, while the perception of intangible result not affected by gender, education, mother’s education and employment. At the same time, natural disaster management simply imposes the need for continuing research on the impact of natural disasters and people from which it follows scientific and social justification of the research. Keywords: natural disasters, quantitative research, consequences, and citizens of Serbia.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Posledice prirodnih katastrofa: faktori uticaja na percepciju građana Srbije. Ecologica, 24(87), 572-578.

Ispitivanje percepcije rizika o požarima u stambenim objektima: demografski i socio-ekonomski faktori uticaja (Examination of the fire risk perception in residential buildings: the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors)

Požari su oduvek predstavljali ozbiljan izvor ugrožavanja bezbednosti ljudi i njihove imovine. Pored preduzimanja svih preventivno-tehničkih mera i radnji, potrebno je i unaprediti bezbednosnu kulturu ljudi. Iz tih razloga, autori u radu iznose rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije građana o požarima u stambenim objektima na području grada Beograda. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika građana na nivo percepcije rizika o požarima. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 322 ispitanika u periodu od početka do kraja jula 2017. godine. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je nivo percepcije verovatnoće nastanka požara najniži za period od godinu dana (M=2.12), zatim za period od pet godina (M=2.26), a najviši za period od 10 godina (M=2.35). Ocena individualne pripremljenosti iznosi M=2.77, zatim lokalne zajednice M=2.79 i na kraju države M=3.42. Kada je reč o posledicama, najviše ispitanika ističe da bi im požar mogao prouzrokovati materijalne posledice (M=2.77), zatim povrede (M=2.49) i na kraju gubitak života (2.00) itd. Polazeći od dobijenih rezultata, potrebno je koncipirati strategije i kampanje usmerene ka podizanju nivo pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, požari, građani, percepcija rizika, stambeni objekti. Fires have always been a serious source of endangering the safety of people and their property. In addition to taking all preventive and technical measures and actions, it is also necessary to improve the safety culture of the people. For these reasons, the authors present the results of a quantitative study of citizens’ perceptions of fires in residential buildings in the city of Belgrade. The aim of the research is a scientific explication of the influence of demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens on the level of fire risk perception. Multi-stage random sampling surveyed 322 respondents in the period from the beginning to the end of July 2017. The results of the research show that the level of perception of the probability of fire occurrence is the lowest for one year (M = 2.12), then for five years (M = 2.26), and the highest for 10 years (M = 2.35). The assessment of individual preparedness is M = 2.77, then local communities M = 2.79, and finally the state M = 3.42. When it comes to consequences, most respondents point out that a fire could cause them material consequences (M = 2.77), then injuries (M = 2.49), and finally loss of life (2.00), etc. Starting from the obtained results, it is necessary to conceptualize strategies and campaigns aimed at raising the level of preparedness of citizens to react in such situations. Keywords: security, fires, citizens, risk perception, housing.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje percepcije rizika o požarima u stambenim objektima: demografski i socio-ekonomski faktori uticaja. Vojno delo, 70(5), 82-98.

Ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvodjenju nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u srednjim školama (Examination of students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” in secondary schools)

Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvođenju nastavnog predmeta ,,bezbednosna kultura“ u nastavni plan i program za srednju školu. Pored toga, analiziraju se i uticaji određenih karateristika učenika na njihove pozitivne ili negativne stavove za uvođenje spomenutog predmeta. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu, obuhvaćen je uzorak veličine 3063 učenika iz 14 srednjih škola. Prema dobijenim rezultatima, u najvećoj meri, učenici nisu sigurni da li su za uvođenje predmeta (47,8%). Sa druge strane, 26,2% učenika je odgovorilo da je za uvođenje predmeta, dok je 24,7% dalo negativan odgovor. Takođe, u radu je utvrđeno je da na stavove ispitanika o uvođenju predmeta statistički značajno utiču pol, godine starosti, zaposlenost roditelјa, obrazovanje oca i majke, razred. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni od strane donosioca odluka prilikom koncipiranja strategija i programa uvođenja nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u nastavni plan i program za srednju školu u cilјu i smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, katastrofe, učenici, stavovi, istraživanje. The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks. Key words: safety, disasters, students, attitudes, research.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvodjenju nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u srednjim školama. Kultura polisa, 15(35), 277-286.

Koncept otpornosti na katastrofe (Concept of disaster resilience)

U proteklih nekoliko decenija naučnici iz oblasti društvenih nauka koji su za predmet svog interesovanja imali katastrofe umnogome su doprineli uspostavljanju osnovnih teorija i koncepata neophodnih za proučavanje navedenih pojava. Naučna saznanja iz oblasti katastrofa bila su pravo teorijsko bogatstvo iskorišćeno za unapređenje bezbednosti ljudi od posledica katastrofa. Praksa je pokazala, svako društvo koje je svoju bezbednosnu politiku upravljanja u katastrofama zasnivalo na naučno utemeljenim činjenicama i principima moglo je u velikoj meri da ublaži ili se oporavi od nastalih posledica katastrofa. Iako je u početku istraživanje katastrofa potpadalo u domen sociologije danas ono na različite načine privlači istraživače društvenih i prirodnih nauka i prepoznato je kao multidisciplinarna i primenjena oblast. Polazeći od prethodnih konstatacija, autori u radu sveobuhvatno analiziraju i opisuju teoriju otpornosti. U radu, posebna pažnja se poklanja određenju pojma otpornosti, njegovim modalitetima i karakteristikama – In the past few decades, scientists in the field of social sciences which are for the subject their interest disaster had greatly contributed to the establishment of basic theories and concepts necessary for the study mentioned phenomena. Scientific knowledge in the field of disaster was the right theoretical richness used for improving the safety of people from the disaster. Practice has shown that every society has its security policy of disaster management was based on scientifically based facts and principles it could greatly mitigate or recover from disasters caused. Although initially researching disasters fall within the domain of sociology today what the different ways researchers are attracted to social and natural sciences and is recognized as a multi-disciplinary and applied power. Starting from the previous conclusions, in the work of authors and comprehensive analysis of the theory describing the resilience from the point of theoretical determination. In this paper, special attention is paid to the definition of the concept of resilience, its modalities and characteristics.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Koncept otpornosti na katastrofe. Ecologica, 25(89), 202-207.

Teorijski okvir istraživanja u oblasti katastrofa (Theoretical framework of research in the field of disasters)

Polazeći od negativnog uticaja katastrofa na društvene sisteme u poslednjoj deceniji višestruko je povećan broj naučnih istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa. Pri tome, interdisciplinarnost sprovođenja istraživanja uslovljava primenu teorijskih okvira različitih naučnih disciplina kao što su sociologija, psihologija, geografija itd. Pregledom literature iz oblasti katastrofa, utvrđeno je da istraživači koriste raznovrsne teorijske okvire, kao što su teorija racionalnog izbora, ugroženosti, otpornosti, planiranog ponašanja, simboličkog interakcionizma, pripremljenosti, odlučivanja, sistema, motivaciona zaštitna teorija itd. Polazeći od postojanja većeg broja relevantnih teorijskih okvira za realizaciju istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa, autori u radu najpre identifikuju i sistematizuju, a zatim analiziraju i opisuju teorijske okvire i mogućnosti njihove primene u konkretnim istraživanjima iz oblasti katastrofa. Starting from the negative impact of disasters on social systems, over the last decade, the number of scientific disaster research has been multiplied. Thereby, the interdisciplinary nature of the research implies the application of theoretical frameworks of various scientific disciplines such as sociology, psychology, geography, etc. A review of literature on disasters showed that researchers use a variety of theoretical frameworks, such as the theory of rational choice, vulnerability, resistance, planned behavior, symbolic interactionism, preparedness, decision-making, systems, motivational protection theory, etc. Starting from the existence of a number of relevant theoretical frameworks for research on disasters, the authors first identify and systematize, and then analyze and describe the theoretical frameworks and the possibilities of their application in concrete studies on disasters.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., & Gačić, J. (2018). Teorijski okvir istraživanja u oblasti katastrofa. Ecologica, 25(91), 545-551.

A survey of subjective opinions of population about seismic resistance of residential buildings – Case study of Serbia (Istraživanje subjektivnih mišljenja stanovništva o seizmičkoj otpornosti stambenih zgrada – Studija slučaja Srbije)

The unpredictability and the seriousness of the potential earthquake consequences for people and residential buildings in Serbia imply the need for improving the resilience of local communities. The paper presents the results of a quantitative research regarding the level and factors of influence on the awareness of citizens about the seismic resistance of their residential buildings to earthquake consequences. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 1,018 citizens (face to face) during 2017 in 8 local communities: Kraljevo, Lazarevac, Jagodina, Mionica, Prijepolje, Vranje, Lapovo and Kopaonik. The questionnaire consisted of two segments: questions on demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of respondents and questions regarding resistance of residential buildings to earthquake consequences. The results show that 35% of respondents state that they live in residential buildings that are not resistant to earthquakes, while 70.7% state that they live in buildings built of reinforced concrete, which are considered safe. Beside that 9.2% of respondents examined the resistance of their facilities to earthquake consequences. Inferential statistical analyses show that men to a greater extent than women state that their buildings are resistant to earthquake consequences. Starting from the multidimensionality of citizen vulnerability to earthquakes, it is necessary to conduct additional studies and further elucidate the sociological dimension of vulnerability and resilience. Nepredvidivost i ozbiljnost potencijalnih posledica zemljotresa za ljude i stambene zgrade u Srbiji ukazuju na potrebu za poboljšanjem otpornosti lokalnih zajednica. U radu su predstavljeni rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja u vezi sa nivoom i faktori uticaja na svest građana o seizmičkoj otpornosti njihovih stambenih zgrada na posledice zemljotresa. Slučajno uzorkovanje u više tačaka korišćeno je za anketiranje 1.018 građana (licem u lice) tokom 2017. godine u 8 mesnih zajednica: Kraljevo, Lazarevac, Jagodina, Mionica, Prijepolje, Vranje, Lapovo i Kopaonik. Upitnik se sastojao iz dva segmenta: pitanja o demografskim, socio-ekonomskim i psihološkim karakteristikama ispitanika i pitanja u vezi sa otpornošću stambenih zgrada na posledice zemljotresa. Rezultati pokazuju da 35% ispitanika navodi da žive u stambenim zgradama koje nisu otporne na zemljotrese, dok 70,7% navodi da žive u zgradama izgrađenim od armiranog betona, koje se smatraju sigurnim. Pored toga, 9,2% ispitanika ispitalo je otpor njihovih objekata na posledice zemljotresa. Inferencijalne statističke analize pokazuju da muškarci u većoj meri od žena navode da su njihove zgrade otporne na posledice zemljotresa. Polazeći od višedimenzionalnosti ugroženosti građana zemljotresima, neophodno je sprovesti dodatne studije i dalje rasvetliti sociološku dimenziju ranjivosti i otpornosti.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). A survey of subjective opinions of population about seismic resistance of residential buildings. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic, 67(3), 265-278.

Činioci uticaja na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama (Factors influencing knowledge about natural disasters)

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja činioca uticaja na znanje građana o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Statističkom metodom i metodom iskustvene generalizacije stratifikovane su lokalne zajednice u Republici Srbiji sa u kojima postoiji rizik od nastanka poplava. Na taj način dobijen je stratum, odnosno populacija koju su činili svi punoletni stanovnici lokalnih zajednica i metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih 19 od ukupno 154 u kojima je indikovana ugroženost od poplava. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 77% ispitanika zna šta je poplava kao prirodna katastrofa. Utvrđeno je da na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama statistički značajno utiču sledeći činioci: pol, godine starosti, prihodi, bračni status, percepcija rizika, zaposlenost i strah. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo znanja statistički značajno ne utiče status zaposlenosti građana. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pružaju odgovarajuću empirijsko-teorijsku osnovu za unapređenje znanja građana o prirodnim katastrofama što ujedno smanjuje i njihovu ugroženost od samih posledica takvih događaja. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, činioci, građani, poplave, Srbija. The paper presents the results of quantitative research on the factors influencing the knowledge of citizens about natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. The statistical method and the method of experiential generalization stratified local communities in the Republic of Serbia with which there is a risk of floods. In this way, a stratum was obtained, ie a population consisting of all adult residents of local communities, and 19 of a total of 154 in which flood risk was indicated were selected by random sampling. The results of the research show that 77% of the respondents know what a flood is like as a natural disaster. The following factors were found to have a statistically significant influence on knowledge about natural disasters: gender, age, income, marital status, risk perception, employment and fear. On the other hand, it was found that the level of knowledge is not statistically significantly affected by the employment status of citizens. The obtained research results provide an appropriate empirical-theoretical basis for improving the knowledge of citizens about natural disasters, which also reduces their vulnerability to the very consequences of such events.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Popović, D., & Ostojić, G. (2017). Činioci uticaja na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama. Ecologica, 24(85), 121-126.

Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flood (Uticaj nivoa religioznosti na pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama)

The subject of quantitative research was examination of relationship between the level of religiousness and perception of citizen’s flood disaster preparedness. The aim of such research was a scientific explanation of relationships of these characteristics and the perception. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia, where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, the sample including 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns was randomly selected ,, as well as the city of Belgrade, where 2,500 persons were surveyed in 2015. The research included the following communities: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac and Užice. The research of selected communities was undertaken in the areas which were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multistage random sample. The parts in the administrative headquarters, which were threatened by hundred-year-old water or a potential risk of high water were determined in the first stage. In the second stage streets and their parts were established, and in the third stage the households in which the survey was conducted were determined. The number of households was coordinated with the size of the community. The fourth stage of sampling referred to the procedure of respondent selection within previously defined household. The respondent selection was conducted using a random sampling method on the adult household members, who were present at the time of the survey. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation level of religiosity with perception in terms of citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research results can contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to such events and can be used to develop the enhancement of the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond. Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje odnosa između nivoa religioznosti i percepcije spremnosti građanina za poplavu. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučno objašnjenje odnosa ovih karakteristika i percepcije. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji, gde je došlo do poplava ili postoji visok rizik od poplava, slučajno je odabran uzorak koji uključuje 19 od 150 opština i 23 grada, kao i grad Beograd, gde je anketirano 2.500 osoba u 2015. Istraživanjem su obuhvaćene sledeće zajednice: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac i Užice. Istraživanje odabranih zajednica sprovedeno je u područjima koja su bila najviše pogođena u odnosu na količinu vode ili potencijalni rizik od poplave. Istraživanje je koristilo strategiju testiranja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. U prvoj fazi utvrđeni su delovi u administrativnom sedištu, kojima je pretila stogodišnja voda ili potencijalni rizik od visoke vode. U drugoj fazi su uspostavljene ulice i njihovi delovi, a u trećoj etapi utvrđena su domaćinstva u kojima je sprovedeno istraživanje. Broj domaćinstava je bio usklađen sa veličinom zajednice. Četvrta faza uzorkovanja odnosila se na postupak odabira ispitanika u okviru prethodno definisanog domaćinstva. Izbor ispitanika je izvršen metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja za odrasle članove domaćinstva, koji su bili prisutni u vreme ankete. Rezultati ukazuju na to da postoji statistički značajan nivo korelacije religioznosti i percepcije u smislu spremnosti građana da odgovore. Rezultati istraživanja mogu doprineti poboljšanju spremnosti građana da odgovore na takve događaje i mogu se koristiti za razvoj poboljšanja nivoa spremnosti građana da odgovore.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Babić, S. (2017). Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for natural disasters. Vojno delo, 69(4), 253-262.

Childrens and youths’ knowledge on forest fires: Discrepancies between basic perceptions and reality (Znanje dece i mladih o šumskim požarima: neusklađenost između osnovne percepcije i stvarnosti)

Forests have a vital role for all living things. Children’s understanding of forest phenomena is important knowledge for various sectors as educators, policy makers, environmentalist, etc. In this study, factors that affect knowledge and perception of forest fires of students, aged 10 to 19, in the city of Belgrade were examined. The research was conducted between October 20, 2013, and February 03, 2014. The authors used a method of surveying students in order to identify and describe the factors affecting their knowledge about forest fires. A total of 3,548 students from 18 schools in Belgrade participated in the survey. The results of the research showed that there is a discrepancy between perceptions and reality, what students think they know and what they actually know, and in very basic terms. This set of findings in combination with other findings on moderators replicates previous research on the need for educational programs to ensure there is a match between youth’s confidence about what they know about hazards and their actual knowledge levels. Mismatches between the two could well have serious consequences in disaster risk reduction terms. Given basic knowledge gaps here, this translates into educational programming that then needs to take account for this basic discrepancy to ensure, even from early ages, consistency between “knowledge and coping confidence” and actual knowledge and ability to cope and respond. Šume imaju vitalnu ulogu za sva živa bića. Dečje razumevanje šumskih pojava je važno znanje za različite sektore kao što su edukatori, kreatori politike, ekolog, itd. U ovoj studiji ispitivani su faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju šumskih požara učenika, uzrasta od 10 do 19 godina, u gradu Beogradu. Istraživanje je sprovedeno između 20. oktobra 2013. i 3. februara 2014. Autori su koristili metodu anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore koji utiču na njihovo znanje o šumskim požarima. U anketi je učestvovalo ukupno 3.548 učenika iz 18 škola u Beogradu. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da postoji razlika između percepcije i stvarnosti, onoga što studenti misle da znaju i onoga što zapravo znaju, i to u vrlo osnovnom smislu. Ovaj skup nalaza u kombinaciji sa drugim nalazima o faktorima preslikava prethodna istraživanja o potrebi obrazovnih programa kako bi se osiguralo da postoji podudaranje između poverenja mladih u ono što znaju o opasnostima i njihovog stvarnog nivoa znanja. Neusklađenost između njih mogla bi imati ozbiljne posledice u smislu smanjenja rizika od katastrofe. S obzirom na nedostatke u osnovnom znanju ovde, ovo prelazi u obrazovno programiranje koje zatim treba uzeti u obzir ovo osnovno odstupanje kako bi se osiguralo, čak i od ranog uzrasta, doslednost između „znanja i pouzdanja u suočavanju“ i stvarnog znanja i sposobnosti da se snađe i odgovori.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Giulia, R., Ocal, A., Filipović, M., Janković, B., & Eric, N. (2018). Childrens and youths’ knowledge on forest fires: Discrepancies between basic perceptions and reality. Vojno delo, 70(1), 171-185.

Obuka građana za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama (Citizens’ training for emergency situations)

Od nastanka prvobitnih ljudskih zajednica postojali su organizovani pokušaji da se ublaže odnosno smanje posledice vanrednih situacija. Pri tome, obučavanje ljudi u cilju adekvatnog reagovanja ili preživljavanja takvih događaja oduvek je imalo prioritet u društvenoj zajednici. Polazeći od značaja takvih preventivnih aktivnosti, realizovano je istraživanje stanja obučenosti i zainteresovanosti građana za pohađanjem određenih obuka primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije. Interpretacija dobijenih rezultata pokazuje da je poražavajućih 5,6% građana istaklo da je obučeno za reagovanje, dok je sa druge strane jedna trećina, tačnije 34,8% građana zainteresovano za samu obuku. Pri tome, utvrđeno je da na pohađanja obuke statistički značajno utiče pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, obrazovanje oca i majke, roditeljstvo, prethodno iskustvo, percepcija rizika i zaposlenost ispitanika, dok ne utiče bračni status ispitanika. Naime, veći procenat pohađanja obuke zabeležili su muškarci, zaposleni ispitanici, ispitanici sa prethodnim iskustvom i višim prihodima itd. Na originalnost istraživanja upućuje neispitanost stanja i nivoa obučenosti građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Naučni i društveni doprinos istraživanja sastoji se u kreiranju naučnih i praktičnih pretpostavki za uspostavljanje sveobuhvatnog i efikasnog programa obučavanja građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, građani, obuka, reagovanje, Srbija. Since the emergence of the original human communities, there have been organized attempts to mitigate or reduce the consequences of emergencies. At the same time, training people to adequately respond to or survive such events has always been a priority in the community. Starting from the importance of such preventive activities, a research of the state of training and interest of citizens in attending certain training was carried out by applying the quantitative research tradition. Interpretation of the obtained results shows that a devastating 5.6% of citizens pointed out that they were trained to react, while on the other hand one third, more precisely 34.8% of citizens are interested in the training itself. In addition, it was found that training attendance is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, education, education of father and mother, parenthood, previous experience, risk perception, and employment of respondents, while the marital status of respondents does not affect. Namely, a higher percentage of attending the training was recorded by men, employed respondents, respondents with previous experience and higher income, etc. The originality of the research is indicated by the unexamined state and level of training of Serbian citizens for reacting in emergency situations. The scientific and social contribution of the research consists in creating scientific and practical preconditions for the establishment of a comprehensive and efficient program for training the citizens of Serbia to react in emergency situations. Keywords: security, emergency situations, citizens, training, response, Serbia.

Reference – Cvetković, V., Jakovljević, V., Gačić, J., & Filipović, M. (2017). Obuka građana za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama Ecologica, 24(88), 856-882.

Ispitavanje stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima (Testing of attitudes and knowledge of students on natural hazards as landslides)

U radu sa kvantitativnim istraživačkim pristupom izneti su rezultati ispitivanja stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima. U istraživanju kojim je obuhvaćeno šest osnovnih škola sa područja Beograda anketirano je 476 učenika. Prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je postojanje visokog nivoa znanja (subjektivne i objektivne ocene) o klizištu, kao i da na nivo percepcije o znanju značajno utiču godine starosti i obrazovanje majke. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo stvarnog znanja o klizištu utiču pol i obrazovanost majke. Na svest učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme klizišta utvrđeno je da ne utiču pol, godine starosti, uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, obrazovanost roditelja itd. Polazeći od utvrđenih rezultata, kreatori javnih politika mogu iskoristiti dobijene podatke u cilju osmišljavanja i primene obrazovnih kampanja podizanja svesti i znanja učenika. Ključne reči: prirodne opasnosti, stavovi, škole, anketiranje, klizišta, Beograd. In paper with quantitative research approach are presents the results of tests students’ knowledge and attitudes about natural hazards as landslides. In a study covering six primary schools in Belgrade interviewed 476 students. According to the results, it was found a high level of knowledge (subjective and objective assessments) of the landslide, and that the level of knowledge of perception significantly affected by age and education of mothers. On the other hand, it was found that the level of actual knowledge of the landslide affected by gender and education of the mother. On the awareness of students about the proper course of action during the landslide was found not to affect gender, age, success in school, parents’ employment, education of parents, etc. Starting from the determined result, policy-makers can use the information obtained to design and implement educational campaigns to raise awareness and knowledge of students. Keywords: natural hazards, attitudes, schools, surveys, landslides, Belgrade.

Reference – Cvetković, V., & Miladinović, S. (2017). Ispitavanje stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima. Ecologica, 24(85), 121-126.

Theory of vulnerability and disaster risk reduction (Teorija ugroženosti i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa)

Od prvih sprovedenih istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa, veliku pažnju istraživača, oduvek je zaokupljivalo pitanje multidimenzionalne prirode ugroženosti ljudi posledicama takvih događaja. Kada su sva relevantna naučna istraživanja pokazala da su uprkos stagnaciji trenda događanja katastrofa u svetu posledice sve ozbiljnije, počela se sredinom sedamdesetih godina razvijati teorija ugroženosti od katastrofa. Upravo tada, pitanje ugroženosti se počinje pojavljivati kao osnovna pretpostavka i ideja za ublažavanje posledica neuobičajenih i nesvakidašnjih događaja kao što su katastrofe. Autori u radu opisuju teoriju ugroženosti od katastrofa, a pri tome posebnu pažnju poklanjaju teorijskom određenju, pristupima i dimenzijama ugroženosti.Since the first conducted research in the field of disasters, the great attention of researchers has always been occupied with the question of the multidimensional nature of human vulnerability to the consequences of such events. When all relevant scientific research showed that despite the stagnation of the trend of catastrophic events in the world, the consequences were becoming more serious, the theory of disaster risk began to develop in the mid-1970s. It is then that the issue of vulnerability begins to emerge as a basic assumption and idea for mitigating the consequences of unusual and unusual events such as disasters. The authors describe the theory of disaster risk, while paying special attention to the theoretical definition, approaches and dimensions of risk. Keywords: safety, disasters, vulnerability, risk, dimensions.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Milašinović, S. (2017). Teorija ugroženosti i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa. Kultura polisa, 14(33), 217-228.

Ispitivanje uloge porodice u edukaciji dece o prirodnim katastrofama (Examination of the family role in education children about disaster)

Efikasno smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa je jedino moguće sprovesti kroz implementaciju integrisanog obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice, škole i lokalne zajednice. Rukovodeći se time, predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stanja i faktora uticaja na edukaciju učenika o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice. Pored toga, u radu se ispituje i nivo motivisanosti učenika za edukaciju u okviru porodice, ali i i u okviru škole kako bi se sveobuhvatnije sagledali njihovi stavovi u tom pogledu. U realizaciji istraživanja korišćen je višeetapni slučajni uzorak i u prvom koraku je korišćenjem liste svih osnovnih i srednjih škola u Beogradu na slučajan način odabrano njih 18. U drugom koraku, korišćenjem spiskova učionica u kojima se održava nastava, izabrane su učionice i anketirani učenici koji su prisustvovali nastavi. Sa procentom odgovora od 98%, anketirano je 3548 učenika u spomenutom broju osnovnih i srednjih škola. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 70,7% učenika istaklo da je edukovano u okviru porodice, 57,4% bi želelo da bude edukovano o prirodnim katastrofama, 18% bi želelo da se edukuje u okviru porodice, a 51,9% u okviru škole. Inferencijalne statističke analize pokazuju da na edukaciju u okviru porodice statistički značajno utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje oca i majke, razred pohađanja i prosek u školi. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja ogleda se u upostavljanju reprezentativne empirijske osnove koja može poslužiti donosiocima odluka prilikom uspostavljanja integrisanog sistema smanjenja rizika od katastrofa kroz obrazovanje. Effective reduction of risks of natural disasters is only possible through the implementation of integrated education on natural disasters within the family, school and local community. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the examination of the condition and influencing factors on the education of students on natural disasters within the family. In addition, the paper examines the level of students’ motivation for education within the family, but also within the school, in order to more comprehensively review their attitudes in this respect. For the purposes of the research, a multi-point random sample was used and in the first step, using the list of all primary and secondary schools in Belgrade, 18 of them were selected randomly. In the second step, using the lists of classrooms in which classes were held, classrooms were selected and respondents who attended the classes were interviewed. With a high percentage of answers, 3548 students were interviewed in the above mentioned number of primary and secondary schools. The results of the survey show that 70.7% of the students pointed out that they were educated within the family, 57.4% would like to be educated about natural disasters, 18% would like to be educated within the family, and 51.9% within the school. Inferential statistical analyses show that education within the family is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, father and mother education, grade and school achievement. The scientific and social importance of the research is reflected in the establishment of a representative empirical basis that can serve to decision-makers when establishing an integrated disaster risk reduction system through education.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. M., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje uloge porodice u edukaciji dece o prirodnim katastrofama. Nauka, bezbednost, policija, 23(1), 71-85.

Problems of inhabitants of Muktagacha Town in Mymensingh District in terms of urban services important for security in natural disasters

The term urbanization normally connotes a trend in increasing proportion of the national population living in urban centers (towns & cities), as well as an increase in the number of urban centers over a period of time. Thus, it means population shift from rural to urban areas and the ways in which a society adapts to the change. It generally results in the physical growth of urban areas. It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world would be urbanized. An urban area can refer to towns, cities, and suburbs. An urban area includes the city itself, as well as the surrounding areas. Many urban areas are called metropolitan areas. In short, it is a geographical area constituting a city or town, where various urban services like electricity, gas, water supply, health facilities are available. Urban services are necessary transition in provision of facilities provided by urban areas. Generally, it is the responsibility of each country to provide urban facilities to its inhabitants. This study focuses on urban services that people of Muktagachha town in Mymensingh District have enjoyed and the major problems they face while getting urban services, as well. Since Muktagachha town is very close to Mymensingh Sadar the trend of urbanization is increasing here. In fact, it is a well – developed upazila of Mymensingh District. The supply of urban services in this upazillais continuously increasing and the quality of these services tries to increase as stated by the upazilla mayor. However, inhabitants still face various problems in getting urban services. This research is going to discuss what types of problems the inhabitants face and what steps can be taken by the pouro authority to improve the quality of urban services.

Reference – Sultana, O., Cvetković, V., & Kutub, J. (2017). Problems of inhabitants of Muktagacha town in Mymenssingh district in terms of urban services important for security in natural disaster. Vojno delo, 70(1), 112-155.

Spremnost gradjana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Srbiji (Citizens’ readiness to react to natural disasters caused by floods in Serbia)

Kvantitativnim istraživanjem ispitivani su nivo, percepcija i znanje građana u vezi sa spremnošću za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je devetnaest od ukupno 150 opština, 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje se obavilo u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na to da su građani Republike Srbije u izvesnoj meri nespremni za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom, imajući u vidu skor od 10,5. Pri tome, ukupan skor za percepciju spremnosti za reagovanje iznosi 0,9 od ukupno 5, zatim 6,51 od ukupno 13 za znanje i, na kraju, 3,09 od ukupno 15 za posedovanje zaliha. U domaćoj literaturi koja se odnosi na prirodne katastrofe veoma malo pažnje je pridavano spremnosti građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Upravo stoga, istraživanje ima visoku naučnu I društvenu opravdanost, imajući u vidu posledice prirodnih katastrofa po ljude i njihova materijalna dobra. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na način na koji treba uticati na građane s obzirom na njihovu percepciju i znanje kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Quantitative research examined the level, perception and knowledge of citizens regarding the readiness to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Having in mind all local communities in Serbia in which a flood has occurred or is at high risk, nineteen out of a total of 150 municipalities, 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were selected by random sampling. In selected local communities, the survey was conducted in those parts that were most at risk in terms of water level. In the survey itself, a household survey strategy was applied, using a multi-stage random sample. The results of the research indicate that the citizens of the Republic of Serbia are to some extent unprepared to react to the natural disaster caused by the flood, having in mind the score of 10.5. At the same time, the total score for the perception of readiness to react is 0.9 out of 5, then 6.51 out of 13 for knowledge and, finally, 3.09 out of a total of 15 for owning stocks. In the domestic literature related to natural disasters, very little attention has been paid to the readiness of citizens to react in such situations. Precisely for this reason, the research has a high scientific and social justification, having in mind the consequences of natural disasters on people and their material goods. The results of the research can be used when creating strategies for improving the level of readiness of citizens to react. The research indicates the way in which citizens should be influenced with regard to their perception and knowledge in order to raise readiness to a higher level.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Spremnost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Vojno delo, 69(1), 153-190.

Uticaj personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa (Influence of personal and environmental factors on the help expectation from the first responders and humanitarian organizations during natural disasters)

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći građana od strane interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih od posledica prirodnih katastrofa i u okviru kojeg je anketirano 2500 građana korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da građani u najvećoj meri (4.26) očekuju pomoć od ukućana, a u najmanjoj meri od verskih zajednica (2.39). U odnosu na interventno-spasilačke službe, građani u najvećoj meri očekuju pomoć od vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica (3.62), a u najmanjoj meri od policije (3.31). Daljim statističkim analizama, utvrđeno je da postoji značajan uticaj pola na očekivanje pomoći za vreme prirodnih katastrofa od ukućana, verskih zajednica i policije. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje efikasnosti upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama u pogledu pružanja pomoći ugroženim ljudima. The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Uticaj personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbednost, 59(3), 28-53.

Informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama – Informed of citizens about firefighters jurisdiction in emergency situations

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja informisanosti građana Srbije o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja određenih demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno 2015. godine i u samom procesu anketnog ispitivanja realizovanog na području devetnaest lokalnih zajednica anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana. Tom prilikom primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati sprovedenih deskriptivnih i inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je srednja vrednost obaveštenosti ispitanika o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama 2,78, odnosno 22% ispitanika je u apsolutnoj meri neobavešteno, 15,8% u izvesnoj meri neobavešteno, 32,5% niti obavešteno niti neobavešteno, 14,8% u izvesnoj meri obavešteno i 11,8% u apsolutnoj meri obavešteno o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Pored toga, rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost obaveštenosti ispitanika sa polom, volonterstvom, bavljenjem sportom, roditeljstvom, zaposlenošću, godinama starosti, nivom obrazovanja, bračnim statusom i nivom religioznosti dok nije utvrđena značajna povezanost sa prethodnim iskustvom u vanrednim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje svesti građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice, informisanost, građani. The paper presents the results of a quantitative survey of Serbian citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. The subject of the research is an examination of the influence of certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. The research was conducted in 2015, and in the process of the survey carried out in the area of nineteen local communities, two and a half thousand citizens were surveyed. On that occasion, a survey strategy was applied in households with the application of a multi-stage random sample. The results of the conducted descriptive and inferential statistical analyzes show that the average value of respondents’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations is 2.78, i.e. 22% of respondents are completely uninformed, 15.8% to some extent uninformed, 32.5% neither informed nor not informed, 14.8% informed to a certain extent and 11.8% absolutely informed about the competences of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. In addition, the results of inferential statistical analyzes show that there is a statistically significant connection between the knowledge of respondents with gender, volunteerism, playing sports, parenthood, employment, age, level of education, marital status and level of religiosity, while no significant connection with previous experience in emergency situations was established. The results of the research can be used to improve citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. Keywords: security, emergency situations, fire-rescue units, information, citizens.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Informed citizens about firefighters’ jurisdiction in emergency situations. VIII Scientific and professional conference with international participation, Police and judiciary guarantees of freedom and security in a legal state, At Hotel “Omorika” on Tara Mountain, Serbia.

Krizne situacije – pripremljenost države, lokalne zajednice i građana (Crisis situations – preparedness of state, local communities and citizens)

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije spremnosti organa državne uprave i jedinica lokalne samouprave, domaćinstva i građana za reagovanje u kriznim situacijama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Polazeći od teorije spremnosti kao okvira za objašnjenje načina na koji se zajednica menja u pogledu sprovođenja određenih preventivnih mera ispituje se uticaj određenih demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika građana na njihovu percepciju spremnosti navedenih subjekata sistema zaštite i spasavanja. Cilј kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa naučna eksplikacija uticaja navedenih faktora na percepciju spremnosti. U istraživanju sprovedenom u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da je ocena spremnosti za reagovanje najviša je kod domaćinstva (M = 3,03), a najniža kod organa jedinica lokalne samouprave (M = 2,86). Utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost pola, godina starosti, visine prihoda i prethodnog iskustva sa percepcijom spremnosti domaćinstva. Sa druge strane, na percepciju spremnosti državnih organa statistički značajno utiču godine starosti, status zaposlenosti, visina prihoda i prethodno iskustvo. Posebno je značajno spomenuti da strah ispitanika od kriznih situacija ne utiče na percepciju spremnosti za reagovanje. Polazeći od empirijski neispitanog stanja percepcije spremnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja za reagovanje rad poseduje visoki naučni i društveni značaj. Pri tome, rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje spremnosti takvog sistema. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, krizne situacije, spremnost, sistem, državni organi, lokalne samouprave, domaćinstva, građani, Srbija, kvantitativno istraživanje. The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of perception of preparedness state administration and local governments, households and citizens to respond in disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Starting from the theory of preparedness as a framework for explanation of how the community is changing in terms of implementing specific preventive measures, authors examined the effects of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their perception preparedness of subjects protection and rescue system. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication impact of those factors on perception of the preparedness of subjects. In a survey conducted in 19 local communities in Serbia using a testing strategy in households, multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed in the course of 2015. The research results indicate that the assessment of readiness to respond highest among households (M = 3.03), and lowest in the bodies of local self-government (M = 2.86). There was a statistically significant correlation between sex, age, income level, and previous experience with the perception of the willingness of the household. The evaluation of individual readiness and willingness of households is higher in men than in women. Citizens aged 18 to 28 years recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household response, unlike citizens from 28 to 38 years who have recorded the highest level of readiness assessment bodies of local self-government. Employees citizens largely emphasize that the authorities are ready to respond. Individuals with incomes over 90,000 dinars recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household. Assessment of preparedness of state bodies and bodies of local self-government is the highest among the citizens with the amount of income to 50,000. Citizens who have had previous experience with floods, compared to those who did not have such experiences, there was a higher level: the assessment of individual readiness, willingness bodies of local self-government and state authorities to respond to natural disasters caused by flooding. On the other hand, the perception of the readiness of state bodies significantly affected by age, employment status, income, and previous experience. It is especially important to note that the respondents fear of a crisis situation does not affect the perception of readiness to respond. Starting from the empirical perception of the state of readiness of the unexamined system of protection and rescue response work possesses high scientific and social significance. In doing so, the results of research could be used to improve the readiness of such a system. Keywords: security, crisis situations, preparedness, system, state authorities, local governments, households, citizens of Serbia, quantitative research.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Krizne situacije – pripremljenost države, lokalne zajednice i građana. Vojno delo, 69(7), 122-136.

Percepcija rizika od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama (Risk perception of natural disasters caused by floods)

Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje percepcije građana o riziku nastanka prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ocene ugroženosti njihovog domaćinstva. T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka ispitana je povezanost pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta i prethodnog iskustva, dok je jednofaktorskom analizom varijanse ispitana povezanost godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja i bračnog statusa sa percepcijom rizika i ocenom ugroženosti domaćinstva. Cilj sprovedenog istraživanja se ogleda u naučnoj eksplikaciji uticaja navedenih promenljiva. Primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 13,4% ispitanika ističe da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih godinu dana, neznatno više ispitanika 28,9% smatra da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih pet godina i 39,3% ispitanika ističe je da je ugroženo njihovo domaćinstvo. Utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost između percepcije rizika, roditeljstva, prethodnog iskustva, vojne obaveze, godine starosti i bračni status. Kada je reč o oceni ugroženosti domaćinstva statistički značajno je povezana sa roditeljstvom, prethodnim iskustvom, vojnom obavezom, nivoom obrazovanja i bračnim statusom. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za podizanje nivoa svesti o rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama kao ključni preduslov podizanja njihove spremnosti za reagovanje. The subject of quantitative research is to examine citizens risk perception about the occurrence risk of natural disaster caused by flood and assessments vulnerability of their household. T – test for independent samples examined the relationship of gender, parenting, employment, disability and previous experience, while the single factor analysis of variance examines the relationships of age, educational level and marital status with the perception of risk and assessment vulnerability of households. The aim of the research is reflected in the scientific explication of the mentioned variable. By applying a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling were surveyed 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Survey results show that 13.4% of respondents said that it is probable that there will be flooding in the next year, slightly more respondents 28.9% said it was unlikely that there will be flooding in the next five years and 39.3% of respondents said that threatened their household. There was a statistically significant association between risk perception, parenting, previous experience, compulsory military service, age and marital status. When it comes to assess the vulnerability of the household was significantly associated with parenting, previous experience, military service, level of education and marital status. The research results can be used to raise awareness about the risks of natural disasters caused by floods as a key precondition for raising their readiness to respond.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Percepcija rizika od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama. Vojno delo, 69(5), 160-175.

Spremnost sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije za implementaciju integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa: preporuke za sprovodjenje istraživanja (The Serbian protection and resque system preparedness for integrated disaster risk management implementation: recommendations for research)

Polazeći od činjenice da trenutni nivo spremnosti (organizovanosti i osposobljenosti) sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije zaostaje za procenjenim potrebama i objektivnim mogućnostima kojima država raspolaže, neophodno je transformisati sistem upravljanja sa jednofaznog na integrisano upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa. Pri tome, transformacija se odnosi na sve cikluse upravljanja u katastrofama: pre katastrofe (priprema i ublažavanje), za vreme katastrofe (odgovor), posle katastrofe (odgovor – rekonstrukcija i rehabilitacija). Iz tih razloga, autori u radu na jedan vrlo sistematičan način iznose konceptualne osnove istraživanja koje bi trebalo da se sprovede kako bi se ispitalo stanje i mogućnosti za tranformaciju spomenutog sistema i efikasnog funkcionisanja integrisanog urpavljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Starting from the fact that the current level of preparedness (organization and competence) of the Serbian protection and rescue system lags behind the estimated needs and objective opportunities available to the state, it is necessary to transform the management system from single-phase to integrated disaster risk management. In addition, this applies to all cycles of disaster development: before disaster (preparation and mitigation), during disaster (response), after disaster (response – reconstruction and rehabilitation). For these reasons, the authors in a very systematic way outline the conceptual bases of the research that should be carried out in order to examine the situation and possibilities for the transformation of the mentioned system and the efficient functioning of the integrated risk management from disasters.

Referenca – Cvetković, M. V., & Miladinović, S. (2018). Spremnost sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije za implementaciju integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa – preporuke za sprovođenje istraživanja. Ecologica, 25(92), 995-1001.

Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera (The impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures)

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera u cilju smanjena posledica od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja navedenih faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera. U istraživanju sprovedenom u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da je utvrđena statistički značajna povezanost demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora sa preduzimanjem preventivnih mera. Naime, ispitanici muškog pola i ispitanici starosti od 58 do 68 godina u većem procentu preduzeli su preventivne mere u odnosu na ispitanike ženskog pola i ispitanke starosti od 28 do 38 godina itd. Dobijeni rezultati mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje stanja preduzimanja preventivnih mera u cilju smanjenja posledica od nastalih prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, demografski, socio-ekonomski, psihološki, preventivne mere. The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures for the reduction of consequences of natural disasters caused by flood. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication of the impact of those factors on preventative measures. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that the significant association of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with taking preventive measures. The male respondents and respondents aged 58 to 68 years in higher percentage taken as preventive measures in respect of female respondents and examined persons age 28 to 38 years and so on. The results could be used for improving the situation of taking preventive measures to reduce the consequences of natural disasters caused by the resulting flood. Key words: security, natural disaster, demographic, socio-economic, psychological, preventive measures.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera. Kultura polisa, XIII(32), 393-404.

The relationship between educational level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters – Povezanost nivoa obrazovanja i pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama

This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the relationship between educational level and preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood. Starting from the local communities in Serbia that are vulnerable to flooding, 19 of them were selected randomly out of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade. In survey research conducted in 2015, which included 2,500 respondents it was applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship between educational level and the following variables: preventive measures; financial funds; engaged in the field; engaged in a reception center; visiting to flooded areas; heavy rains; river level rise; and the level of preparedness, supplies in the home; radio-transistor; flashlight; shovel; hack; apparatus for firefighting; supplies in the car; first aid kit in the home and so on. On the other hand, there is no relationship with variables: media reports, information in religious community, on television, education on radio, informal education system. The research results can be used to improve citizen preparedness to respond to disasters caused by flooding. The survey set out recommendations for increasing the level of preparedness to respond in such situations with regard to the educational level of citizens. Ovaj rad predstavlja rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja odnosa između nivoa obrazovanja i spremnosti građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Polazeći od lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji koje su podložne poplavama, njih 19 izabrano je nasumično od 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U istraživanju sprovedenom 2015. godine, koje je obuhvatilo 2.500 ispitanika, primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna veza između nivoa obrazovanja i sledećih varijabli: preventivne mere; finansijska sredstva; angažovan na terenu; angažovan u prihvatnom centru; poseta poplavljenim područjima; obilne kiše; porast nivoa reke; i nivo pripremljenosti, zalihe u kući; radio-tranzistor; baterijska lampa; lopata; hack; aparati za gašenje požara; zalihe u kolima; komplet prve pomoći u kući i tako dalje. S druge strane, ne postoji veza sa varijablama: izveštaji medija, informacije u verskoj zajednici, na televiziji, obrazovanje na radiju, neformalni obrazovni sistem. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti za poboljšanje spremnosti građana za odgovor na katastrofe izazvane poplavama. Istraživanje je iznelo preporuke za povećanje nivoa spremnosti za reagovanje u takvim situacijama s obzirom na nivo obrazovanja građana

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). The relationship between educational level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 66(2), 237-253.

Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruption)

Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic eruptions, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. In relation to the total number of natural disasters in the period, which amounted to 25.552, geophysical disasters are in the third place according to its frequency – 11,89%. In the fi st place are hydrological disasters – 37,40%, and the last are biological ones – 11,04%. Volcanic eruptions as geophysical disasters, every day increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the fi ld of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientifi method for drawing conclusions about the volcanic eruptions is general scientifi statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions in the period from 1900 to 2013 at the global level. In addition, the statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the fi st step raw (unprocessed) data were taken in «Excel» file form from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and effects of volcanic eruptions was examined on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 years by the number of various effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the spatial distribution, total number and the consequences of volcanic eruptions were analyzed by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the total number and variety of consequences. Vulkanske erupcije kao geofizičke katastrofe, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbednost lјudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolјe spoznati. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučlјiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaklјučaka o vulkanskim erupcijama jeste statistička metoda. Rukovodeći se tom činjenicom, predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija u svetu, tokom perioda 1900-2013. godina. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci u vidu ,,Excel” fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica vulkanskih erupcija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou, sa posebnim osvrtom na 5 najznačajnijih godina prema broju različitih posledica (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni, bez doma). Na istom principu, u okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice vulkanskih erupcija po kontinentima i državama, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najugroženijih država prema ukupnom broju i različitim posledicama. U cilju efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom vulkanskih erupcija, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispolјavanja vulkanskih erupcija. Pri tome, važno je da geoprostorna i vremenska analiza vulkanskih erupcija daju značenje, sadržaj i vrednost sveobuhvatnoj težnji za bolje razumevanje prirodnih opasnosti i njihovih uticaja, kako bi se stanovništvo pravovremeno zaštitilo od njih.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija. NBP – Žurnal za kriminalistiku i pravo, 2/2014, 153-171.

Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters (Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija prirodnih katastrofa)

The subject of quantitative research is determining the spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters worldwide for the period 1900-2013. Considering that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for making conclusions on natural disasters is the statistical method. Thereby, a statistical survey has been conducted in the way that raw data about all natural disasters in the first step were downloaded (25.552) in the form of Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution the total number and consequences of natural disasters were analyzed by continents. According to the same principle, within temporal analysis we examined distribution of the total number and effects of natural disasters on annual, monthly and daily levels. Statistical results of analysis clearly indicate that the number of natural disasters has increased, with their recorded maximum in the period from 2000 to 2013. Certainly, one can not absolutely say this is true
in view of starting to pay serious attention to quantitative indicators. Also, it can not be said that the international database (CRED) included absolutely all natural disasters in the world, considering that it was created thanks to the submission of national reports on natural disasters.
Such way of data collection can have serious shortcomings, given the diverse subjectivities. In addition, the question that arises is whether most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the global geographic space, the survey results represent a good argument for initiation of serious reforms of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens about the seriousness of the consequences of natural disasters to humans, environment and their property. Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja je utvrđivanje prostorne i vremenske distribucije prirodnih katastrofa širom sveta za period 1900-2013. S obzirom da se radi o masovnom fenomenu koji se sastoji od više celina, najpoželjnija naučna metoda za donošenje zaključaka o prirodnim katastrofama je statistička metoda. Tako je sprovedeno statističko istraživanje na način da su sirovi podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama u prvom koraku preuzeti (25.552) u obliku Ekcel datoteke iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim analizirani u programu za statističku analizu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne raspodele ukupan broj i posledice prirodnih katastrofa analizirani su po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize ispitivali smo raspodelu ukupnog broja i efekata prirodnih katastrofa na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. Statistički rezultati analiza jasno ukazuju na to da se broj prirodnih katastrofa povećao, sa njihovim zabeleženim maksimumom u periodu od 2000. do 2013. Svakako, ne može se apsolutno reći da je to tačno s obzirom na to da počinjemo ozbiljno da obraćamo pažnju na kvantitativne pokazatelje. Takođe, ne može se reći da je međunarodna baza podataka (CRED) obuhvatala apsolutno sve prirodne katastrofe na svetu, s obzirom na to da je stvorena zahvaljujući podnošenju nacionalnih izveštaja o prirodnim katastrofama. Takav način prikupljanja podataka može imati ozbiljnih nedostataka, s obzirom na različite subjektivnosti. Pored toga, postavlja se pitanje da li je većina nerazvijenih zemalja podnela svoje izveštaje. Imajući u vidu porast broja i težine prirodnih katastrofa na globalnom geografskom prostoru, rezultati istraživanja predstavljaju dobar argument za pokretanje ozbiljnih reformi sistema zaštite i spasavanja od prirodnih katastrofa u zemljama širom sveta. Rezultati istraživanja utiču na podizanje svesti građana o ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, životnu sredinu i njihovu imovinu.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Dragicević, S. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 64(3), 293-309.

Žene kao učesnici u mirovnim operacijama i donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti (Women as participants in peace operations and decision-makers in security sector)

Savet bezbednosti Ujedinjenih nacija usvojio je 2000. godine Rezoluciju 1325, koja se zalaže za proces integracije žena u sferu bezbednosti i njihovo učestvovanje u osnovnim operacijama dostizanja i očuvanja mira i bezbednosti. Proces integracije žena u tu oblast podrazumeva ravnopravno učešće žena u konfliktnim situacijama, radi prevencije nasilja, izgrađivanja mira i sprovođenja humanitarnih operacija. Rezolucija 1325 je takođe i dokument kojim je garantovana rodna ravnopravnost i zaštita prava žena u konfliktnim područjima. Potreba zaštite prava žena kao pasivnih ili aktivnih učesnika oružanih sukoba proizlazi, s jedne strane, iz njihove ranjivosti i ugroženosti posledicama oružanih sukoba, a sa druge strane, iz činjenice da žene kao donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti po prirodi teže nenasilnim i neoružanim načinima rešavanja problema. Međutim, sprovođenje Rezolucije 1325 u praksi nailazi na mnogobrojne probleme, pa se uloga žena u sektoru bezbednosti zanemaruje, i često se svodi samo na formalno prisustvo u različitim strukturama, bez mogućnosti žena da ravnopravno učestvuju u procesima planiranja, odlučivanja i sprovođenja odluka. Cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na realno stanje zastuplјenosti žena u sektoru bezbednosti u svetu i u Republici Srbiji, naročito na najvišim pozicijama, i njihovu ulogu u mirovnim operacijama i procesu donošenja najvažnijih odluka. The UN Security Council adopted The Resolution 1325 in 2000, which supports the integration of women into the sphere of security and their participation in the basic operations achieving and maintaining peace and security. The process of women’s integration in this area includes the equal participation of women in conflict situations, in order to prevent violence, peace-building and implementation of humanitarian operations. Resolution 1325 is also a document that guarantees gender equality and protecting women’s rights in conflict areas. Necessity for protec- tion women’s rights as passive or active participants in armed conflicts is conditioned on the one hand, by their vulnerability and the consequences of armed conflict; on the other hand, by the fact that women as decision makers in the security sector naturaly tend to non-violent and unarmed ways of solving problems. However, the implementation of Resolution 1325 in practice has faced many problems, so the role of women in the security sector is neglected, and often reduced to a formal presence in different structures, without the possibility for women to participate equally in the planning, decision making and implementing decisions. The aim of this paper is to show the real situation of women’s representation in the security sector in the world and in the Republic of Serbia, especially on top levels, and their role in peacekeeping operations and in the top-level security decision-making process.

Referenca – Popović, M., & Cvetković, V. (2012). Žene kao učesnici u mirovnim operacijama i donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti. Žene Kultura – Polis, 9(2), 273-291.

Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju (The role and training of members of the Serbian army for escort escorts)

Kroz istoriju su mnoge istaknute ličnosti, s jedne strane bile predmet uvažavanja, pa čak i fanatičnog obožavanja, a s druge strane predmet osporavanja do čak patološke netrpelјivosti. Sa razvojem društva „kult ličnosti“ je sve više počeo da bledi a „nedodirlјivost“ je postajala sve slabija. Takve ličnosti su sve češće postajale mete napada svojih neistomišlјenika koji su ponekad rezultirali i fizičkom likvidacijom. Potreba za zaštitom takvih ličnosti, koje danas nazivamo „određenim ličnostima“, javila se sa intenziviranjem ugrožavanja njihovih života. Zadaci obezbeđenja poveravani su najodanijim i najsposobnijim lјudima koji su bili u neposrednom okruženju štićene ličnosti. S tim u vezi, u radu je dat generalni pregled poslova obezbeđenja sa posebnim osvrtom na istorijat, opšte pojmove i vrste obezbeđenja. Throughout history, many prominent personalities, on the one hand, have been the subject of respect and even fanatical worship, and on the other hand, the subject of challenge to even pathological intolerance. With the development of society, the “cult of personality” began to fade more and more, and the “untouchability” became weaker and weaker. Such personalities increasingly became the targets of attacks by their dissidents, which sometimes resulted in physical liquidation. The need to protect such persons, which we now call “certain persons”, arose with the intensification of the threat to their lives. Security tasks were entrusted to the most loyal and capable people who were in the immediate vicinity of the protected person. In this regard, the paper gives a general overview of security activities with special reference to the history, general concepts and types of security.

Referenca – Veličković, M., Cvetković, V. (2013). Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju. Vojno delo, 55(2), 262-276.

Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju (The role and training of members of the Serbian army for escort escorts)

Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 64 (2), 126-144.

Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti (The role of private armed forces in traditional security concepts)

Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 64 (2), 126-144.

Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters (Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija geofizičkih katastrofa)

Referenca – Cvetkovic, V., & Mijalkovic, S. (2013). Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 63(3), 345-359.

Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije zemljotresa kao prirodnih katastrofa (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes as natural disasters)

Prirodne katastrofe svih vrsta (meteorološke, hidrološke, geofizičke, klimatske i biološke) sve više postaju deo svakodnevnog života savremenog čoveka. Posledice su veoma često razorne po život, zdravlje i imovinu ljudi, ali takođe i po bezbednost države i čitave međunarodne zajednice. Zemljotresi (trusovi) pripadaju grupi geofizičkih prirodnih katastrofa i dešavaju se vrlo često s tim što je njihov najveći broj slabijeg intenziteta. Snažniji zemljotresi mogu da prouzrokuju veliku materijalnu štetu i ozbiljne posledice po život ljudi kroz nastajanje pukotina u zemljinoj kori, potresa tla, poplava, oslobađanja opasnih materija i sl. U tom smislu, radi efektivnije i efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom seizmičkih talasa, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispoljavanja zemljotresa. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metoda tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendove, posledice, vremensku i geoprostornu distribuciju zemljotresa u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i na potrebu adekvatnog odgovora društva na tu vrstu prirodne katastrofe. Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatic and biological) are increasingly becoming a part of everyday life of modern man. The consequences are very often devastating for the life, health and property of the people, but also for the security of the state and the entire international community. Earthquakes (earthquakes) belong to the group of geophysical natural disasters and happen very often, with the largest number of them being of lower intensity. Stronger earthquakes can cause great material damage and serious consequences for human life through the formation of cracks in the earth’s crust, earthquakes, floods, release of hazardous substances and the like. In that sense, in order to more effectively and efficiently protect and respond to emergencies caused by the harmful effects of seismic waves, it is necessary to comprehensively investigate the natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be the form, consequences, time and geospatial distribution of earthquakes. Using the international database on natural disasters of the Brussels-based Center for Disaster Epidemiology Research (CRED), with the support of the Statistical Analysis Program (SPSS) and thematic cartography methods, we tried to indicate the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of earthquakes. in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural disaster.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Milojković, B., & Stojković, D. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije zemljotresa kao prirodnih katastrofa. Vojno delo, 66(2), 166-185.

Spremnost studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji (Prepadness of students academy of criminalistics and police studies for responding to natural disasters caused by floods in Serbia)

Bearing in mind the impossibility of achieving absolute safety from the consequences of natural disasters, as well as the inability of the authorities to all citizens in the short term help, readiness as a concept that is one of the cycles of natural disaster management is particularly important. In addition, it can be said that scientific research is particularly encouraged by insufficiently explained the nature of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their willingness to respond to various natural disasters. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the identification of objective and subjective readiness of students Criminal Police College for responding to a natural disaster caused by the flood. In addition, in order to examine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic and psychological characteristics of students of the Academy’s willingness to respond, using chi-square test. For testing correlation between the continuous variable such as height, weight, age and average rating of readiness will be used Pearson correlation coefficient r. On that occasion he used method of surveying students with the help of an instrument for these purposes and created. Bearing in mind that the students Academy of criminalistics and police studies are formed in groups of years of study we chose a cluster sample. So, we decided that the election of members of the population in the sample does not perform direct care to select an entire group (first year students). More specifically, members of the population consisting of all students Academy of criminalistics and police studies (from the first to the fourth year of study) were not pulled out individually for the sample from the population but pulled out one group (first year students). The sample included 434 students, of which 59.6% male and 40.4% female, with a range of 18 to 22 years, mean age 19:02. The results show that certain elements of preparedness of students for reacting natural disaster caused by the flood of largely influenced by the following variables: gender, father’s education, religiosity and awareness for steštnim effect of flooding. Students showed a higher degree of subjective than objective readiness to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood. Imajući u vidu nemogućnost postizanja apsolutne bezbednosti od posledica prirodnih katastrofa, kao i nemogućnost vlasti da svim građanima u kratkom roku pomogne, spremnost kao jedna o faza upravljanja prirodnim katastrofama je posebno važna. Pored toga, može se reći da naučna istraživanja posebno podstiče nedovoljno objašnjena priroda uticaja demografskih, socijalno-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika građana na njihovu spremnost da odgovore na različite prirodne katastrofe. Shodno tome, predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja je utvrđivanje objektivne i subjektivne spremnosti studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Pored toga, kako bi se ispitao uticaj demografskih, socioekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika spremnosti studenata korišćen je hi-kvadrat test. Za ispitivanje korelacije između nezavisne promenljive kao što su visina, težina, starost i prosečna ocena spremnosti korišćen je Pearsonov koeficijent korelacije r. Tom prilikom je za ove svrhe korišćenja metoda anketiranja učenika uz pomoć anketnog upitnika. Imajući u vidu da su studenti Kriminalističko-policijske akademije raspoređeni u grupama različitih godina studija, izabrali smo klaster uzorak. Dakle, zaključili smo da se izborom članova populacije u uzorku ne vrši direktna briga za odabir čitave grupe (studenti prve godine). Tačnije, pripadnici populacije koju čine svi studenti Kriminalističko-policijske akademije (od prve do četvrte godine studija) nisu izvučeni pojedinačno za uzorak iz populacije, već smo izvukli jednu grupu (studenti prve godine). Uzorak je obuhvatio 434 učenika, od čega 59,6% muškaraca i 40,4% žena, uzrasta od 18 do 22 godine, prosečne starosti 19:02. Rezultati pokazuju da su na određene elemente pripremljenosti učenika za reagovanje prirodnom katastrofom izazvanom poplavom u velikoj meri uticale sledeće promenljive: pol, obrazovanje oca, religioznost i svest za steštnim efektom poplave. Studenti su pokazali viši stepen subjektivne nego objektivne spremnosti da odgovore na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gaćić, J., & Petrović, D. (2015). Spremnost studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Ecologica, 22(78), 302-309.

Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters (Znanje i percepcija učenika srednje škole u Kraljevu o prirodnim katastrofama)

Kvantitativno istraživanje je sprovedeno sa ciljem utvrđivanja percepcije i stvarnog znanja učenika srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu ,,Nikola Tesla” o prirodnim katastrofama. Tom prilikom je korišćen metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji imaju uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika. Iz populacije srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu, na slučajan način, iz svake godine izabran je po određen broj ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da izvori informacija o prirodnim katastrofama i njihovim ugrožavajućim posledicama utiču na percepciju učenika srednje škole. Istovremeno, na stvarno znanje o prirodnim katastrofama utiču predavanja, škola, televizija i internet, dok znatno manje utiču video-igre, radio i priče od članova porodice. Ispitanici bez ličnog iskustva u vezi sa ugrožavajućim posledicama prirodnih katastrofa u statistički većem procentu ne znaju da prepoznaju određene prirodne katastrofe. Iskustvo članova uže porodice ne utiče u velikoj meri na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama, sa izuzetkom oca. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa. Quantitative research was conducted in order to determine the perceptions and actual knowledge of secondary school for electrical engineering in Kraljevo, Nikola Tesla about natural disasters. On that occasion used method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students. From the population of secondary technical school in Kraljevo, at random, from each year was chosen by a number of respondents. The results show that the sources of information about natural disasters and their threatening consequences affect the perception of secondary school students. At the same time, the actual knowledge about natural disasters affecting lectures, schools, television and the internet, while considerably less influence video games, radio and stories from family members. Those with no personal experience regarding the threatening consequences of natural disasters in a statistically higher percentage do not know how to recognize a certain natural disasters. Experience immediate family members are not affected to a large extent on the knowledge of natural disasters, with the exception of his father. Bearing in mind the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Stojković, D. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters. Ecologica, 22(77), 42-49.

Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija (Victimization of People by Natural Disasters: Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Consequences)

Predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni i materijalna šteta) sa posebnim osvrtom na geofizičke, meteorološke, klimatske, biološke i hidrološke katastrofe koje su se dogodile u svetu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Pri tome, ljudi koji su pogođeni raznovrsnim prirodnim katastrofama se mogu posmatrati kao nevidljive žrtve jer ih država i društvo ne prepoznaju kao žrtve, pa samim tim ne dobijaju adekvatnu zaštitu, pomoć i podršku. Statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na podacima međunarodne baze podataka Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) u Briselu. U okviru vremenske analize raz- matrana je distribucija posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, u intervalima od po deset godina. Istom metodologijom analizirana je geoprostorna distribucija viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama po kontinentima. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama u svetskom geopro- storu u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju na porast broja i ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa. This paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distributions of victimized people (killed, injured, affected and damage) with specific reference to geophysical, meteorological, climatological, biological and hydrological disasters that have occurred in the world of from 1900 to 2013 year. In addition, people affected by the various natural disasters could be classified as invisible victims as they are not recognized as victims either by the state or society, and consequently they do not receive adequate protection, assistance and support. Statistical research was conducted on data from the international database of the Centre for Research on Disaster Epidemiology Disaster (CRED) in Brussels. Temporal analysis examined the distribution and effects of natural disasters on people, at intervals of ten years. The same methodology was adopted for analyses of geospatial distribution of victimized people because of natural disasters by continent. The aim of the research is to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of victimization of people with natural disasters in the world geospace in the period from 1900 to 2013. The survey results clearly indicate an increase in the number and severity of the consequences of natural disasters.

Referenca – Mijalković, S., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija. Temida, časopis o viktimizaciji, ljudskim pravima i rodu, 4(17), 19-43.

Marital status of citizens and floods: citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters (Bračni status građana i poplave: pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama)

This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the influence of marital status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation of relationship between marital status and preparedness. In order to realize research, nineteen communities were randomly selected in which 2,500 persons were surveyed, in 2015. On that occasion, households were questioned using the multi-stage random sample. The research results suggest that married would in the highest percentage give money to help flood victims, long-lasting rains make them to think about preparedness for floods, they know what flood is, they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period during and after the flood, they know where in local community elders, disabled and infants live, they know safety procedures for responding during floods, they would evacuate to a friend’s place. On the other side, divorced citizens in the lowest percentage take preventive measures to reduce tangible consequences caused by floods, they are not yet prepared, but will start preparing next month, they know what flood is, they would evacuate to the upper floors of the house, say that someone at primary/secondary school and within family educated them on floods, they know what to do after an official warning about approach of flood, they got information about floods at faculty, through informal education and through media. The research results can be used in designing strategies and campaigns aimed to raise the level of preparedness of citizens with regard to their marital status. Ovaj rad predstavlja rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja bračnog stanja na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Cilj ovakvog istraživanja je naučno objašnjenje odnosa između bračnog statusa i spremnosti. Da bi se realizovalo istraživanje, 2015. godine nasumično je izabrano devetnaest zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2.500 osoba. Tom prilikom ispitivana su domaćinstva pomoću višefaznog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja sugerišu da bi oženjeni u najvećem procentu dali novac za pomoć žrtvama poplava, dugotrajne kiše nateraju ih da razmišljaju o spremnosti za poplave, znaju šta je poplava, upoznati su sa virusima i infekcijama koji prate period tokom i posle poplave, znaju gde u lokalnoj zajednici žive starešine, invalidi i odojčad, znaju sigurnosne postupke za reagovanje tokom poplava, evakuisali bi se kod prijatelja. S druge strane, razvedeni građani u najmanjem procentu preduzimaju preventivne mere za smanjenje opipljivih posledica izazvanih poplavama, još nisu pripremljeni, ali će početi sa pripremama sledećeg meseca, znaju šta je poplava, evakuisali bi se na gornje spratove kuća, kažu da ih je neko u osnovnoj / srednjoj školi i unutar porodice edukovao o poplavama, znaju šta treba da rade nakon zvaničnog upozorenja o približavanju poplave, informacije o poplavama dobili su na fakultetu, putem neformalnog obrazovanja i putem medija. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti u dizajniranju strategija i kampanja čiji je cilj podizanje nivoa spremnosti građana s obzirom na njihov bračni status.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Marital status of citizens and floods: citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66 (8), 89-116.

Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana (Climate change and national defense)

Klimatske promene, kao jedan od najvećih izazova sa kojim se suočava savremeno društvo, već duže vreme ne prestaju da zaokuplјaju pažnju, kako političke, tako i naučne javnosti. Varijabilnost posledica klimatskih promena, kao i njihovi efekti na životnu sredinu i čovečanstvo, nalaze se na agendi većine međunarodnih skupova, a diskusije o mogućim strategijama za redukciju njihovog uticaja vode se, kako na nacionalnom, tako i na međunarodnom nivou. Ipak, većina ovakvih diskusija ograničavala se pretežno na efekte koje klimatske promene izazivaju u životnoj sredini i, u okviru toga, na efekte koje takve promene mogu imati na život lјudi u smislu dostupnosti osnovnih namirnica i resursa. Prošlo je dosta vremena dok razmatranje posledica klimatskih promena nije izašlo iz okvira studija zaštite životne sredine, a u poslednjih nekoliko godina posebno je evidentan porast svesti o uticaju klimatskih promena na organizovanje i funkcionisanje nacionalne odbrane, posebno u razvijenim zemlјama. Promenjena priroda pretnji postavlјa pred sistem odbrane visoke standarde u pogledu kapaciteta i sposobnosti za efikasan odgovor na njih, a činjenica da klimatske promene pogađaju različite segmente lјudske civilizacije, što u krajnjoj liniji ima uticaja na ispunjavanje misije odbrane, nužno nameće potrebu da se ovoj problematici ubuduće posveti više pažnje. Zato, ovaj rad ima za cilј da, razmatranjem nekih od dominantnih trendova u kretanju klimatskih promena, analizira njihov uticaj na funkcionisanje odbrane u promenjenim ambijentalnim uslovima. Climate change, as one of the biggest challenges facing modern society, has not ceased to occupy the attention of both the political and scientific public for a long time. The variability of the consequences of climate change, as well as their effects on the environment and humanity, are on the agenda of most international gatherings, and discussions on possible strategies for reducing their impact are being conducted, both nationally and internationally. However, most of these discussions have been limited mainly to the effects that climate change has on the environment and, within that, to the effects that such changes can have on human life in terms of access to basic food and resources. It has been a long time since the consideration of the consequences of climate change has gone beyond the scope of environmental studies, and in the last few years there has been a particularly growing awareness of the impact of climate change on the organization and functioning of national defense, especially in developed countries. The changed nature of threats sets high standards for the defense system in terms of capacity and ability to respond effectively, and the fact that climate change affects different segments of human civilization, which ultimately affects the fulfillment of the defense mission, necessarily imposes the need to address this issue in the future. pay more attention. Therefore, this paper aims to, by considering some of the dominant trends in the movement of climate change, analyze their impact on the functioning of defense in changed environmental conditions.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Vučić, S., & Gačić, J. (2015). Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana. Vojno delo, 67 (5), 181-203.

Uticaj statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji (The impact of the status of regulated military service on the readiness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia)

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 2500 građana bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su građani koji su regulisali status vojne obaveze preduzeli određene preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica poplave, angažovali bi se na pružanju pomoći žrtvama poplava na, na razmišljanje o spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave, podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše, još uvek nisu spremni, ali nameravaju da to urade u narednih šest meseci itd. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije nikada sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane obzirom na status regulisane vojne obaveze kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. The aim of the quantitative research is to examine the impact of the status of regulated military service on the readiness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Having in mind all local communities in Serbia in which the flood occurred or there is a high risk, nineteen of the total of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were selected by random sampling. In selected local communities, the survey was conducted in those parts that were most at risk in terms of water level or potential risk. In the survey itself, in which 2,500 citizens were interviewed, a household survey strategy was applied using a multi-stage random sample. The results of the research indicate that the citizens who have regulated the status of military service have taken certain preventive measures in order to reduce the material consequences of the flood, would be engaged in providing assistance to flood victims, thinking about readiness to react to floods. ready, but intend to do so in the next six months, etc. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that no research has ever been conducted in Serbia to examine the state of readiness of citizens to react. The results of the research can be used when creating strategies for improving the level of readiness of citizens to react. The research indicates how citizens should be influenced given the status of regulated military service in order to raise readiness to a higher level.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Uticaj statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Ecologica, 22(80), 584-590.

Bezbednost učenika od posledica prirodnih katastrofa u školskim objektima (Security among students in school buildings during natural disasters)

U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije učenika srednjih škola o njihovoj bezbednosti u školskim objektima za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Autori koriste metod anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore koji utiču na percepciju bezbednosti učenika. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu, za potrebe ovog istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.063 učenika, što čini 4.67% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se 40,2% učenika oseća bezbedno, 37,8% nije sigurno i 21,8% ističe da se oseća nebezbedno u školskim objektima kada su u pitanju posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Nadalje, rezultati ispitivanja uticaja određenih faktora na percepciju bezbednosti učenika pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost sa promenljivama – pol, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, ostvarena prosečna ocena, dok takva povezanost nije utvrđena sa promenljivama – zaposlenost roditelja, živi sa ocem, sa majkom, dedom i babom. Istraživanje se bazira na područje Beograda, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom području. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija unapređenja bezbednosti učenika u školskim objektima od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, učenici, škola, anketiranje, Beograd. Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research of perception among high school students about their safety in school buildings during natural disasters. The authors use the method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the perception of safety among students. Out of the total population of high school students in Belgrade, for the purpose of this study a sample consisting of 3,063 students was drawn, which makes 4.67% of the population. From a population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools, 13 of them were selected randomly. The research results show that 40.2% of students feel safe, 37.8% are not sure and 21.8% state that feel unsafe in school buildings in terms of the consequences of natural disasters. Furthermore, the research results of the impact of certain factors on the perception of safety among students indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship with variables – sex, mother’s education, father’s education, the average score achieved, whereas such correlation has not been found with variables – employment of parents, living with father, with mother, grandparents. The study is based on the Belgrade area, therefore the findings can be generalized only to the population of high school students in this area. The research results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the safety of students in school buildings against the effects of natural disasters. Key words: safety, natural disasters, students, school, surveying, Belgrade.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Janković, B., & Milojević, S. (2016). Bezbednost učenika od posledica prirodnih katastrofa u školskim objektima. Ecologica, 23(84), 809-815.

Prediction model of effective studies at the Academy of criminalistics and police studies (Predikcioni model efikasnosti studija na Kriminalističko-policijskoj akademiji)

The paper deals with the connection between the input characteristics of students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies in Belgrade related to the acquired and inherited values and effective studying. Data collection was performed using the questionnaire technique on a sample of 120 students and the logic regression method. The questionnaire comprised 11 closed questions, 10 relating to predictor variables (gender, high school, success in high school, place in which it was finished, going in for sport, respondent’s family and financial situation, whether a member of the family is employed by the Ministry of Interior and the course of studies), and one relating to the criterion variable (studying without repeating years). The results of logic regression showed that the overall model explains between 40.4% and 55.7% of variance in the status of effective studying, and it correctly classified 83.6% of cases. Only five predictor variables provided a unique statistically significant contribution to the model. The paper proved that if a student had a specific set of inherited and acquired characteristics, probability that he/she would study effectively is significantly increased. The paper proved that higher police education institutions should pay attention to the inherited and acquired characteristics at the entrance examination. Unlike any previous research, the paper deals with desired characteristics modelling implying that the candidate has increased chances to study effectively. U radu se govori o povezanosti ulaznih karakteristika studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije u Beogradu vezanih za stečene i nasleđene vrednosti i efikasno studiranje. Prikupljanje podataka izvršeno je tehnikom upitnika na uzorku od 120 učenika i metodom logičke regresije. Upitnik se sastoji od 11 zatvorenih pitanja, od kojih se 10 odnosi na prediktorske varijable (pol, srednja škola, uspeh u srednjoj školi, mesto na kojem je završen, bavljenje sportom, porodična i finansijska situacija ispitanika, da li je član porodice zaposlen u Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova i tok studija), i jedan koji se odnosi na kriterijumsku promenljivu (studiranje bez ponavljanja godina). Rezultati logičke regresije pokazali su da ukupni model objašnjava između 40,4% i 55,7% varijanse u statusu efikasnog proučavanja i pravilno je klasifikovao 83,6% slučajeva. Samo pet prediktorskih promenljivih pružilo je jedinstveni statistički značajan doprinos modelu. Rad je dokazao da ako je student imao određeni skup naslednih i stečenih karakteristika, verovatnoća da će efikasno učiti je znatno povećana. U radu se dokazalo da visokoškolske ustanove na prijemnom ispitu treba da obrate pažnju na nasleđene i stečene osobine. Za razliku od bilo kog prethodnog istraživanja, rad se bavi modeliranjem željenih karakteristika, što implicira da kandidat ima veće šanse za efikasno učenje.

Referenca – Milojević, S., Janković, B., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Prediction Model of Effective Studies at the Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies. NBP – Journal of criminalistics and law, 20 (1), 135-149.

Uticaj motivisanosti na spremnost građana da reaguju na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom (The Impact of the Level of Motivation on the Preparedness of Citizens of the Republic of Serbia to Respond to Natural Disaster Caused by Flood)

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja motivisanosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je dvadeset od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grad Beograd. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje se obavilo u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na to da su apsolutno motivisani zabeležili viši nivo individualne spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave u odnosu na građane koji smatraju da su apsolutno nemotivisani. Suprotno tome, apsolutno nemotivisani građani ne rade ništa kako bi se pripremili za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na način na koji treba uticati na građane, s obzirom na njihovu motivisanost, kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, motivisanost, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija. The objective of the quantitative research was to examine the impact of the level of motivation on the preparedness of citizens to respond to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia affected, or with a high risk to be affected, by flood, twenty of a total of 150 municipalities and 23 cities, as well as the city of Belgrade, were randomly selected. In the selected local communities the research was conducted in those areas that were the most endangered regarding the water level or potential risk. The survey applied the strategy of multi-stage surveying of random sampled households. The research results indicate that those absolutely motivated recorded a higher level of individual readiness to respond to floods as compared to the citizens who believe they are absolutely unmotivated. In contrast, absolutely unmotivated people do nothing to prepare for response. The originality of the research lies in the fact that Serbia has never conducted any research to examine the citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research findings can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research points to the way that should be used to drive the citizens, according to their level of motivation, in order to raise their preparedness to a higher level. Key words: natural disasters, flood, citizens, level of motivation, preparedness to respond, Serbia.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj motivisanosti na spremnost građana Republike Srbije da reaguju na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Vojno delo, 67(3), 141-171.

Integrisani sistem zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama – sistem „broj 112 za hitne pozive“ – Integrated system of protection and rescue in emergency situations – system “number 112 for emergency calls”

All member states of the European Union has The Integrated protection and rescue system with „SOS 112“ system, and today this is a technical requirement for countries that are seeking to become EU members. Although this system is regulated by Law on Emergency Situations (2009.) and National strategy (2011.) it has not been implemented in Republic of Serbia. In this article the authors analyze the importance and benefits of this system and the main reason why it is not implemented so far. U radu su predstavlјeni rezultati analize postojećeg sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama i kao klјučni nedostaci istaknuti neuspostavlјenost Integrisanog sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama i u okviru njega „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“. Ovaj sistem imaju sve države članice Evropske unije i danas predstavlјa tehnički uslov za zemlјe koje žele da postanu članice EU. Zakonski preduslovi za postojanje ovakvog sistema u Republici Srbiji postoje, ali Integrisani sistem zaštite i spasavanja i „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“ još uvek nisu zaživeli u praksi, iako je Zakon o vanrednim situacijama usvojen 2009. godine, a Nacionalna strategija 2011. godine. Sistem „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“ je složen i skup, izgrađivaće se godinama, a podrazumevaće velike materijalne, tehničke, kadrovske, ali prvenstveno finansijske resurse koje u ovom trenutku Republika Srbija nema, što predstavlјa i glavni razlog zašto ovaj sistem do danas nije uspostavlјen. Nacrt Izmena i dopuna Zakona o Vanrednim situacijama iz 2011. godine predviđao je finansiranje ovog sistema iz pretplate korisnika fiksne i mobilne telefonije, međutim ovaj predlog se nije našao u skupštinskoj proceduri. Poslednje izjave predstavnika resornih ministarstva nagoveštavaju ideje o donatorstvima kao načinu finansiranja sistema, a što će svakako predstavlјati posebani izazov imajući u vidu da su države koje imaju sistem „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“, taj sistem finansirale sopstvenim sredstvima.

Referenca – Lipovac, M., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Problemi u implementaciji evropskih standarda u Republici Srbiji u oblasti integrisanog sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama – broj 112 za hitne pozive. Evropsko zakonodavstvo, 14 (54), 300-306.

Spremnost građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom – Readiness of the citizens of Loznica to react to the natural disaster caused by the earthquake

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje spremnosti građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom. U anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 154 građana Loznice bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su ispitanici u Loznici zabeležili više srednje vrednosti u odnosu na istraživanje sprovedeno u Japanu kod sledećih kategorija: zalihe (Loznica – M = 2,88; Higasihiama – M = 2,37), specijalne potrebe (Loznica – M = 3,23; Higasihiama – M = 2,57), požar (Loznica – M = 3,24; Higasihiama – M = 2,60), brojevi hitnih službi (Loznica – M = 3,12; Higasihiama – M = 2,47). Sa druge strane, ispitanici u Higasihiamiju zabeležili su više srednje vrednosti kod skupova pitanja: povezanost u lokalnoj samoupravi (Loznica – M = 2,87; Higasihiama – M =2,97) i sklonište (Loznica – M = 2,67; Higasihiama – M = 2,97). T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka utvrđenja je statistički značajna razlika rezultata pola i zaposlenosti ispitanika sa ocenom spremnosti domaćinstva za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u realizaciji kvantitativnog istraživačkog pristupa sa ciljem utvrđivanja nivoa i faktora uticaja na spremnost građana za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Istraživanje ima značajnu naučnu i praktičnu vrednost imajući u vidu implikacije rezultata istraživanja na unapređenje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Takođe, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti u koncipiranju strategija i kampanja usmerenih na unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe izazvane zemljotresom. The aim of quantitative research is to examine citizen preparedness in Loznica to respond to a natural disaster caused by earthquakes. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015. The sample consisted of 154 adult citizens of Loznica. The research results indicate that respondents in Loznica scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: supplies (Loznica – M = 2.88; Higasihiama – M = 2.37), special needs (Loznica – M = 3.23; Higasihiama – M = 2.57), fire (Loznica – M = 3.24; Higasihiama – M = 2.60), emergency numbers (Loznica – M = 3.12; Higasihiama – M = 2.47). On the other hand, respondents in Higasihiama scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: connections in local government (Loznica – M = 2.87; Higasihiama – M = 2.97) and shelter (Loznica – M = 2.67; Higasihiama – M = 2.97). The originality of the research lies in realization of quantitative research approaches aimed to determination of level and impact factors on citizen preparedness to respond in an earthquake. The research has important scientific and practical value, bearing in mind the implications of research results on improving preparedness of citizens to respond. Also, the results of research can be used directly or indirectly in outlining strategies and campaigns aimed at improving citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by an earthquake.

Referenca – Sandić, M., Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2016). Spremnost građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom. Ecologica, 81, 40-48.

Influence of Income Level on Citizen Preparedness for Response to Natural Disasters – Uticaj nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodne katastrofe

The aim of quantitative research is to examine the influence of income level on the citizen preparedness for response to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where occurred or there is a high risk of flood occurrence, nineteen of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were randomly chosen. In selected communities the research was performed in those areas that were most affected in relation to the water level or potential risk. The survey applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicated that the citizens who had income above RSD 90,000 at the household level, in a higher percentage took preventive measures, they know what floods are and know the safety procedures. On the other hand, citizens who have income below RSD 25,000 are not yet prepared, or intend to take certain measures in the next 6 months. The originality of the research stems from the fact of unexamined influence of income level on citizen preparedness. The research results can be used when creating strategies to improve the preparedness of citizens for response. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that Serbia has not examined the influence of income level on preparedness of citizens to respond. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizen preparedness for response with regard to the level of citizen incomes. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja je ispitivanje uticaja nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik od pojave poplava, nasumično je izabrano devetnaest od 150 opština i 23 grada i grad Beograd. U odabranim zajednicama istraživanje je sprovedeno u onim područjima koja su bila najviše pogođena u odnosu na nivo vode ili potencijalni rizik. Istraživanje je primenilo strategiju ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da su građani koji su na nivou domaćinstva imali prihode veće od 90.000 dinara, u većem procentu preduzeli preventivne mere, znaju šta su poplave i poznaju bezbednosne postupke. S druge strane, građani koji imaju prihode ispod 25.000 dinara još uvek nisu pripremljeni ili nameravaju da preduzmu određene mere u narednih 6 meseci. Originalnost istraživanja proizlazi iz činjenice neispitanog uticaja nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti pri kreiranju strategija za poboljšanje spremnosti građana za odgovor. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da Srbija nije ispitala uticaj nivoa prihoda na spremnost građana da odgovore. Rezultati se mogu koristiti prilikom kreiranja strategije za poboljšanje nivoa spremnosti građana za odgovor s obzirom na nivo dohotka građana.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Influence of income level on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66(4), 100-127.

The fear of natural disaster caused by flood (Strah od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama)

The subject of quantitative research is a determination of fear level of natural disaster caused by flood and examination its relationships with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation relationships nature of these characteristics and fear. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. According to the survey, 49.7% of respondents said they feel fear, 16.1% were not sure, and 33.2% do not feel the fear of natural disasters caused by flooding. In addition, the results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the fear to sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, income level, swimming abilities and the type of ownership of the facility in which to live, until such a relationship does not exist with level of religiosity and success in high school. Social and scientific justification of the research arising from the necessity to examine the situation and the level of citizens’ fear of natural disaster caused by flood with a view to taking some proactive measures aimed to offset the fear by taking certain measures of preparedness to react in such situations. The research results might be used in planning the psychological help and support to citizens in the stages of preparation, response and recovery from natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disaster, citizens, fear, floods, demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Sažetak: Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa straha od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ispitivanje njegove povezanosti sa demografskim i socioekonomskim karakteristikama građana. Cilj takvog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplinacija prirode povezanosti navedenih karakteristika i straha. U cilju realizacije istraživanja, metodom slučajnog uzorka, odabrano je devetnaest lokalnih zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Tom prilikom, bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Sudeći po rezultatima istraživanja, 49,7% ispitanika ističe da oseća strah, 16,1% nije sigurno, i 33,2% ne oseća strah od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom. Pri tome, rezultati ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost straha sa polom, godinama starosti, obrazovanjem, bračnim statusom, statusom zaposlenosti, visinom prihoda, plivačkim sposobnostima i vrstom vlasništva nad objektom u kojem se živi, dok takva povezanost ne postoji sa nivom religioznosti i uspehom u srednjoj školi. Društvena i naučna opravdanost istraživanja proizilaze iz neophodnosti ispitivanja stanja i nivoa straha građana od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom sa ciljem preduzimanja određenih proaktivnih mera usmerenih ka kompenzaciji straha kroz preduzimanje određenih mera spremnosti za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti u koncipiranju psihološke pomoći i podrške građanima u fazama pripreme, odgovora i oporavka od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, građani, strah, poplave, demografske i socio ekonomske karakteristike.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Sandić, M. (2016). The fear of natural disaster caused by flood. Ecologica, 23 (82), 202-209.

Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters – Uticaj klimatskih promena an distribuciju ekstremnih temperatura kao prirodnih katastrofa

Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the near future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001 (IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees in the 20th century, although climate warming was not uniform neither spatially nor temporally, as was indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures occurred due to changes in climate, cause more and more attention lately as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of cases of extreme temperatures. In this regard, in order to effectively protect and response to emergencies caused by harmful temperature extremes, it is necessary among other things to investigate comprehensively mentioned natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be an analysis of climate change as well as form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperatures. Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), based in Brussels, with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and the method of thematic cartography, we have tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperature in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural hazard.. Veliki deo naučne zajednice slaže se da se globalna temperatura kao rezultat klimatskih promena znatno povećala u prošlom veku i nastaviće da raste u bliskoj budućnosti. Prema Trećem izveštaju o proceni IPCC-a, 2001. (IPCC – Međuvladin panel za klimatske promene), globalna srednja temperatura porasla je za oko 0,6 stepeni u 20. veku, iako zagrevanje klime nije bilo jednoobrazno ni prostorno ni vremenski, kao što je naznačeno uočenim promenama i studijama modeliranja. Varijacije u globalnim ili regionalnim slučajevima ekstremnih temperatura vazduha nastale su usled klimatskih promena, koje u poslednje vreme uzrokuju sve više pažnje jer su živa bića i ekosistemi i ljudsko društvo osetljivi na ozbiljnost, učestalost i trajnost slučajeva ekstremnih temperatura. S tim u vezi, radi efikasne zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim ekstremnim temperaturama, neophodno je, između ostalog, istražiti sveobuhvatno pomenuti prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti analiza klimatskih promena kao i oblika , posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metodu tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendovi, posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i potreba za adekvatnim odgovorom društva na ovu vrstu prirodne opasnosti.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66(6), 21-42.

Influence of employment status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters (Uticaj statusa zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe)

The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results show that: citizens who are employed, in a higher percentage/greater extent compared to citizens who are not: have taken certain preventive measures aimed at reducing the tangible consequences of floods, would pay funds to an account to help flood victims, would engage in providing help to flood victims in the field, heavy rains make them to think on preparedness for response and water level rise, they engaged in preparations for at least 6 months, do not do anything that would raise the level of preparedness to the next level etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. e poplava koje su zadesile područje Srbije u toku 2014. go ine ukazale su na veoma nizak stepen spremnosti stanovništva za reagovanje u takvim prirodnim katastrofama. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je 19 od ukupno 150 opština, 23 grada i grada Beograda. U samom anketnom ispitivanju u kojem je učestvovalo 2.500 građana bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nikada nije sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje s obzirom na njihovu zaposlenost. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane s obzirom na status zaposlenosti kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reaogovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. NBP – Žurnal za kriminalistiku i pravo, 20 (2), 49-94.

Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija šumskih požara (Geospatial and temporal distribution of forest fires)

Šumski požari predstavljaju jednu od najznačajnijih opasnosti savremene civilizacije čije proučavanje zahteva složen, sveobuhvatan i multidisciplinaran pristup. Posledice šumskih požara često su razorne po život, zdravlje i imovinu ljudi, ali i po bezbednost države i čitave međuarodne zajednice. U tom smislu, radi efikasnije zaštite i sprečavanja ozbiljnog poremećaja funkcionisanja društva, odnosno velikih ljudskih, materijalnih i ekoloških gubitaka koji prevazilaze sposobnost pogođenog društva da se izbori sa situacijom, odnosno stanjem prirodne katastrofe, potrebno je sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen. U ovom članku tumače se i objašnjavaju forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispoljavanja šumskih požara. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metoda tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendove, posledice, vremensku i geoprostornu distribuciju šumskih požara u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i na potrebu adekvatnog odgovora društva na tu vrstu prirodne katastrofe. Forest fires represent one of the most significant dangers of modern civilization, the study of which requires a complex, comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach. The consequences of forest fires are often devastating for the life, health and property of people, but also for the security of the state and the entire international community. In that sense, in order to more effectively protect and prevent serious disruption of society, ie large human, material and environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected society to cope with the situation, ie the state of natural disaster, it is necessary to comprehensively investigate this natural phenomenon. This article explains and explains the form, consequences, time and geospatial distribution of forest fires. Using the international database on natural disasters of the Brussels-based Center for Disaster Epidemiology Research (CRED), with the support of the Statistical Analysis Program (SPSS) and thematic cartography methods, we tried to indicate the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of forest fires in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural disaster.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2016). Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija šumskih požara kao prirodnih katastrofa. Vojno delo, 68 (2), 108-127.

The position and role of Frontex in implementation of new European union border security policy (Mesto i uloga Fronteks-a u sprovođenju nove politike granične bezbednosti evropske unije)

This paper presents results of the analysis of the Council Regulation (EC) No 2007/2004 on establishing the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union (FRONTEX). Also, the analysis of other regulations that amended the Regulation No 2007/2004 has been completed. The mentioned Regulation was made after the abolition of controls at internal borders of the EU when the Member States remained responsible for the control and surveillance of external borders in accordance with the common rules on standards and procedures for the control of external borders. FRONTEX was established to reinforce the security of external borders of the EU, with the role of coordinating the operational cooperation between the countries. This paper analyses the organization of FRONTEX, and it also presents its role in implementation and coordination of joint operations, pilot projects, rapid interventions, as well as situations and conditions in which teams of European border guards are to be engaged. It provides a special view regarding the cooperation of FRONTEX with institutions outside the EU relevant to the issues of border security, particularly in those countries that have been identified as sources and transit routes of illegal migration, within the framework of working arrangements concluded with those bodies. FRONTEX has signed such Working Arrangement on establishing operational cooperation with the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Serbia. The Organizational unit of the MoI of the Republic of Serbia that realizes direct cooperation with this agency is the Border Police Directorate. The paper stated that Serbia as a candidate country for membership in the EU is working closely with the mentioned Agency. However, there is still room for improvement in this cooperation. Before its full membership in the EU, Serbia will have to adjust all the procedures in line with standards set by FRONTEX, for which substantial funds will be needed. Da bi se ispoštovao jedan od klјučnih principa Evropske unije, sloboda kretanje lјudi, Šengenskim sporazumom su ukinute granice između država EU. Države članice EU su nakon ukidanja kontrole na unutrašnjim granicama, ostale odgovorne za kontrolu i nadzor spolјnih granica. Radi jačanja sigurnosti spolјnih granica EU, s ulogom koordinacije u operativnoj saradnji država članica Evropske unije, pridruženih šengenskih država i drugih partnera, osnovana je Evropska agencija za upravlјanje operativnom saradnjom na spolјnim granicama država članica Evropske unije (FRONTEKS). Srbija kao država kandidat za članstvo u EU usko sarađuje sa pomenutom Agencijom. Međutim, u toj saradnji još ima mesta za napredak. Pre punopravnog članstva u EU Srbija će u narednom periodu morati da uskladi sve svoje procedure u skladu sa standardima koje je uspostavio FRONTEKS, za šta će biti neophodna pozamašna novčana sredstva. Klјučne reči: FRONTEKS, granična bezbednost, spolјne granice, Evropska unija, Srbija

Referenca – Janković, B., & Cvetković, V. (2016). Mesto i uloga FRONTEKS-a u sprovođenju nove politike granične bezbednosti Evropske unije. Evropsko zakonodavstvo, 55 (56-57), 265-277.

The project “Natural Albania” as a threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia (Projekat ,,Prirodne Albanije“ kao pretnja teritorijalnom integritetu Republike Srbije)

Tokom čitavog stoleća bile su prisutne opasnosti od etničkog ujedinjenja Albanaca muslimanske veroispovesti. Organizovano i sistematsko postupanje albanskih separatista na području Kosova i Metohije, kao i akcije i ideje koje se čuju širom Balkana, pokazuje da je projekat „nezavisno Kosovo“ samo deo, ili prelazna etapa, jedne znatno kompleksnije vizije „svi Albanci u jednoj državi“, što dovodi u pitanje postojeće međunarodno priznate granice i ugrožava bezbednost ne samo Republike Srbije, već i celog Balkana. Rukovodeći se narastajućim pretnjama bezbednosti, u radu su izneti rezultati analize karakteristika sve aktuelnije pretnje projekta „Velike Albanije“ po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Temeljnim pregledom literature, autori nastoje da utvrde u kojoj meri je takav projekat prepoznat u akademskoj, odnosno naučnoj i stručnoj zajednici kao realna pretnja po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Tokom čitavog stoleća bile su prisutne opasnosti od etničkog ujedinjenja Albanaca muslimanske veroispovesti. Organizovano i sistematsko postupanje albanskih separatista na području Kosova i Metohije, kao i akcije i ideje koje se čuju širom Balkana, pokazuje da je projekat „nezavisno Kosovo“ samo deo, ili prelazna etapa, jedne znatno kompleksnije vizije „svi Albanci u jednoj državi“, što dovodi u pitanje postojeće međunarodno priznate granice i ugrožava bezbednost ne samo Republike Srbije, već i celog Balkana. Rukovodeći se narastajućim pretnjama bezbednosti, u radu su izneti rezultati analize karakteristika sve aktuelnije pretnje projekta „Velike Albanije“ po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Temeljnim pregledom literature, autori nastoje da utvrde u kojoj meri je takav projekat prepoznat u akademskoj, odnosno naučnoj i stručnoj zajednici kao realna pretnja po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Throughout the century, there were dangers from the ethnic unification of Albanians of the Muslim faith. Organized and systematic actions of Albanian separatists in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as actions and ideas heard throughout the Balkans, show that the “independent Kosovo” project is only part, or a transitional stage, of a much more complex vision of “all Albanians in one state”, calling into question existing internationally recognized borders and endangers the security not only of the Republic of Serbia, but also of the entire Balkans. Guided by the growing security threats, the paper presents the results of the analysis of the characteristics of the increasingly current threat of the “Greater Albania” project to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. With a thorough review of the literature, the authors try to determine the extent to which such a project is recognized in the academic, ie scientific and professional community as a real threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. Throughout the century, there were dangers from the ethnic unification of Albanians of the Muslim faith. Organized and systematic actions of Albanian separatists in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as actions and ideas heard throughout the Balkans, show that the “independent Kosovo” project is only part, or a transitional stage, of a much more complex vision of “all Albanians in one state”, calling into question existing internationally recognized borders and endangers the security not only of the Republic of Serbia, but also of the entire Balkans. Guided by the growing security threats, the paper presents the results of the analysis of the characteristics of the increasingly current threat of the “Greater Albania” project to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. With a thorough review of the literature, the authors try to determine the extent to which such a project is recognized in the academic, ie scientific and professional community as a real threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia.

Referenca – Filipović, M., & Cvetković, M. V. (2019). Projekat ,,Prirodne Albanije“ kao pretnja teritorijalnom integritetu Republike Srbije. Vojno delo, 71(4), 114-125.

Edukacija građana o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem multimedijalnih sadržaja – društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice i simulacije (Citizens’ education about disaster risk reduction using multimedia content – social games, computer games and simulations)

Polazeći od značaja edukacije građana i dece o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa, u radu su izneti rezultati teorijskog istraživanja u okviru kojeg su identifikovani, analizirani i interpretirani dostupni i širom sveta korišćeni multimedijalni sadržaji od značaja za podizanje svesti i znanja građana o načinima reagovanja u uslovima katastrofa. Korišćenjem analize sadržaja, opisane su najznačajnije karakteristike edukacije u školama i društvenih igara, primene kompjuterskih igrica i simulacija, postojećih kurseva i obuka, edukativnih video snimaka i različitih postera, brošura i vodiča za potrebe smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Rezultati teorijskog istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju edukativnih materijala građana i dece na području Srbije kako bi se sistematski i efikasno podigao nivo njihove spremnosti za reagovanje. Svakako, pre implementacije određenog edukativnog materijala, potrebno je sprovesti empirijsko istraživanje u kojem bi trebalo testirati efikasnost njegove implementacije i uspešnosti podizanja nivoa znanja i svesti o rizicima. Ključne reči: bezbednost, edukacija građana i dece, multimedijalni sadržaji, društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice. Considering the importance of citizens and children education on disaster risk reduction, the paper presents the results of theoretical research in the framework of which have been identified, analyzed and interpreted available and around the world used important multimedia content for the citizens awareness and knowledge about how to react in terms of disaster. The most important characteristics of education in schools, social games, computer games, simulations, existing courses, training, educational videos, and various posters, brochures, and guides for disaster risk reduction are described. The results of the present theoretical research can be used as a starting point in conceiving educational materials for citizens and children in Serbia with the aim to systematically and efficiently raise the level of their willingness to react. Certainly, before the implementation of a specific educational material, empirical research should be conducted in which the effectiveness of its implementation and the effectiveness of raising awareness and awareness of risks should be tested.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Katarina, A. (2019). Edukacija građana o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem multimedijalnih sadržaja – društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice i simulacije. Vojno delo, 71(6), 122-151.

Činioci uticaja na donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacije u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima: studija slučaja Beograda (Factors influencing decision-making on the implementation of evacuation in terms of disasters caused by fires in residential buildings: a case study of Belgrade)

U teoriji o katastrofama postoje nekonzistentni rezultati istraživanja u pogledu načina uticaja određenih činilaca na blagovremeno i adekvatno donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacija u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima. Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stavova građana u pogledu pristanka na evakuaciju, načinu i barijerama njenog sprovođenja, ali i uticaju internih (demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških) činilaca na sprovođenje evakuacije u katastrofama izazvanim požarima na teritoriji Republike Srbije. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi se najveći broj građana evakuisao prilikom izbijanja požara u stambenim objektima. Pored toga, utvrđen je statistički značajan uticaj određenih demografskih i socio-ekonomskih činilaca na donošenje takvih odluka. U odnosu na građane koji bi odbili da se evakuišu, potrebno je sprovesti naknadna istraživanja kako bi se utvrdilo zašto oni odbijaju da se evakuišu i kojim se razlozima najviše rukovode. In disaster theory, there are inconsistent research results regarding how certain factors influence the timely and adequate decision-making on conducting evacuations in the conditions of catastrophes caused by fires in residential buildings. The subject of the research is to examine the attitudes of citizens regarding the consent to evacuation, the manner and barriers to its implementation, but also the impact of internal (demographic, socio-economic, and psychological) factors on evacuation in disasters caused by fires in Serbia. The results of the research show that the largest number of citizens would be evacuated when fires broke out in residential buildings. In addition, a statistically significant influence of certain demographic and socio-economic factors on making such decisions was found. About citizens who would refuse to evacuate, subsequent research is needed to determine why they refuse to evacuate and for what reasons they are most guided.

Referenca – Mumović, N., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Činioci uticaja na donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacije u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima: studija slučaja Beograda. Vojno delo, 71(7), 142-163.

Uticaj akutnog mentalnog stresa na performanse gađanja: implikacije na obuku pripadnika bezbednosnih službi (The Impact of Acute Mental Stress on Shooting Performance: Implications for Security Training)

Cilj naučnog rada predstavlja ispitivanje povezanosti akutnog mentalnog stresa i perfomansi gađanja iz službenog pištolja CZ 99. Ispitanici su gađali u stacionarnu metu iz pištolja sa daljine od 10 m., sa po pet metaka. Za procenu stresa korišćen je parametar srčane frekvencije (HR) koja je merena monitorom srčane frekvencije, pre i za vreme gađanja. Ispitanici su bili studenti muškog pola (30), sa Kriminalističko-policijskog univerziteta u Beogradu koji prethodno nisu imali nikakav kontakt sa vatrenim oružjem. Prosečna srčana frekvencija ispitanika u stanju mirovanja iznosila je M = 66.24 (SD – 6.58), a na vatrenoj liniji M = 105.13 (SD – 17.63). Nakon završene obuke, prosečna srčana frekvencija ispitanika na vatrenoj liniji iznosila je M = 105.10 (SD – 15.14). Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost između srčane frekvencije sa performansama gađanja. Povišena srčana frekvencija kod ispitanika pri gađanju, ukazuje da su ispitanici tokom gađanja doživeli akutni mentalni stres. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi prilikom treninga pripadnika bezbednosnih službi, pored tehničkog, taktičkog i fizičkog aspekta, trebalo posvetiti više pažnje ulozi i značaju mentalnog stresa. Ključne reči: akutni stres, pištolj, perfomasne gađanja, bezbednosne službe, istraživanje. The aim of the scientific work is to examine the relationship between acute mental stress and the performance of shooting from a CZ 99 service pistol. The subjects fired at a stationary target from a pistol from a distance of 10 m, with five bullets each. The heart rate (HR) parameter measured by the heart rate monitor, before and during shooting, was used to assess stress. The respondents were male students (30), from the Criminal Police University in Belgrade, who had no previous contact with firearms. The average heart rate of the subjects at rest was M = 66.24 (SD – 6.58), and on the firing line M = 105.13 (SD – 17.63). After completing the training, the average heart rate of the subjects on the firing line was M = 105.10 (SD – 15.14). The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant correlation between heart rate and shooting performance. Elevated heart rate in the subjects during shooting, indicates that the subjects experienced acute mental stress during the shooting. The results of the research show that during the training of members of the security services, in addition to the technical, tactical and physical aspects, more attention should be paid to the role and importance of mental stress. Key words: acute stress, gun, performance shooting, security services, research.

Referenca – Janković, B., Cvetković, M. V., Vučković, G., & Milojević, S. (2019). Uticaj akutnog mentalnog stresa na perfomanse gađanja: implikacije na obuku pripadnika bezbednosnih službi. Vojno delo, 71(6), 112-121.

Mobilni komunikacioni sistemi i aplikacije od značaja za integrisano upravljanje u katastrofama (Mobile communication systems and important aplications for integrated disaster management)

Savremeno upravljanje u katastrofama uslovljava iznalaženje optimalnih rešenja u pogledu mobilnih komunikacionih sistema i aplikacija koje se mogu koristiti za unapređivanje efikasnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja. Multidisciplinarnost i suštinska komplikovanost procesa upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa uslovljava korišćenje različitih logističkih alata i opreme. U tom smislu, informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije igraju značajnu ulogu jer one na svojevrstan način podižu nivo sposobnosti ljudi za brzo odlučivanje i smanjuju mogućnosti nastanka različitih grešaka. U radu se opisuju karakteristike i načini korišćenja najpoznatiji mobilnih aplikacija koje se širom sveta koriste u integrisanom upravljanju katastrofama sa ciljem pružanja pomoći i podrške pripadnicima interventno-spasilačkih jedinica i drugim ugroženim građanima. Pored toga, sveobuhvatno se sagledavaju postojeći i očekivani izazovi i problemi u normalnom funkcionisanju mobilnih komunikacionih sistema i aplikacija u uslovima katastrofa. Modern disaster management requires finding optimal solutions in terms of mobile communication systems and applications that can be used to improve the efficiency of protection and rescue systems. The multidisciplinarity and essential complexity of the disaster risk management process requires the use of various logistics tools and equipment. In that sense, information and communication technologies play a significant role because they in a way raise the level of people’s ability to make quick decisions and reduce the possibility of various errors. The paper describes the characteristics and ways of using the most famous mobile applications that are used worldwide in integrated disaster management with the aim of providing assistance and support to members of emergency rescue units and other vulnerable citizens. In addition, the existing and expected challenges and problems in the normal functioning of mobile communication systems and applications in the conditions of disasters are comprehensively considered.

Referenca – Svrdlin, M., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Mobilni komunikacioni sistemi i aplikacije od značaja za integrisano upravljanje katastrofama. Vojno delo, 71(7), 164-177.

Značaj i uloga privatnih vojnih kompanija u rešavanju savremenih problema nacionalne i međunarodne bezbednosti (Significance and role of private military companies in solving contemporary problems of national and international security)

Pitanje sistema unutrašnje bezbednosti države i dalje nastavlja da zaokuplja veliku pažnju kako međunarodne javnosti, tako i političkih činilaca i običnih ljudi u mnogim zemljama. Takva situacija je postala očigledna, imajući u vidu sve učestalije terorističke aktivnosti na međunarodnom planu i probleme koji nastaju delovanjem organizovanih transnacionalnih kriminalnih grupa. Rukovodeći se time, a polazeći od pregleda strane i domaće literature, autori u prvom delu rada opisuju karakteristike sukoba niskog intenziteta sa osvrtom na slabe države, zatim razmatraju konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih kompanija, kao i njihovu povezanost sa mirovnim misijama Ujedinjenih nacija i privatne vojne kompanije kao multiplikatore oružanih snaga. U drugom delu rada, autori analiziraju i sagledavaju ulogu privatnih vojnih kompanija u eksploataciji prirodnih resursa u zemljama visokog bezbednosnog rizika, ali i njihovu ulogu u sistemu unutrašnje bezbednosti i borbe protiv organizovanog kriminala. Ključne reči: bezbednost, privatne vojne kompanije, nacionalna i međunarodna bezbednost, uloga. The issue of the state’s internal security system continues to occupy great attention of both the international public and political actors and ordinary people in many countries. Such a situation has become apparent, given the increasing terrorist activity at the international level and the problems arising from the activities of organized transnational criminal groups. Guided by this, and starting from a review of foreign and domestic literature, the authors in the first part of the paper describe the characteristics of low-intensity conflicts with reference to weak states, then discuss the conceptual foundations of private military companies and their connection with United Nations peacekeeping missions and private military companies. as multipliers of the armed forces. In the second part of the paper, the authors analyze and consider the role of private military companies in the exploitation of natural resources in countries with high security risk, but also their role in the system of internal security and the fight against organized crime.

Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, M. V. (2019). Značaj i uloga privatnih vojnih kompanija u rešavanju savremenih problema nacionalne i međunarodne bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 71(3), 73-94.

The role of education in natural disaster risk reduction (Uloga obrazovanja u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa)

Referenca – Ivanov, A., & Cvetković, V. (2014). The role of education in natural disaster risk reduction. Horizons, international scientific journal, 10 (16), 16,115-131, 2014.

Sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama (Emergency Management System in the United States)

Referenca – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V., Veličković, M. (2012). Sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama u Sjedinjenim Američkim državama. Vojno delo, 64 (1), 89-105.

Mogućnosti zloupotrebe oružja za masovno uništavanje (Possibilities of Weapon of Mass Destruction Abuse for Terrorist Purposes)

Nesporna destruktivnost oružja za masovno uništavanje i razvoj njegove proliferacije s jedne, kao i ekspanzija ekstremizma i terorizma u svetu, s druge strane, ukazuju na povećan rizik od moguće upotrebe navedenog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Uz to, otežana detekcija i identifikacija pomenutih opasnih materija, koja dodatno usložnjava postupanje snaga zaštite i spasavanja na mestu terorističkog događaja, još više inspiriše lidere terorističkih grupa da se domognu ovog oružja. S tim u vezi, u radu je učinjen osvrt na (ne)posrednu vezu između ovog oružja i terorističkih grupa, daje se generalni pregled oružja za masovno uništavanje koja se mogu iskoristiti u terorističke svrhe i ispituje se realnost i mogućnost njegove upotrebe radi ostvarenja terorističkih cilјeva. Undeniable destructiveness of weapons of mass destruction and their proliferation development, on the one hand, and the expansion of extremism and terrorism in the world, on the other hand, indicate an increasing risk of their misuse for terrorist purposes. Besides, difficulties of detection and identification of those hazardous materials, which further make it more complex for defence and rescue forces to react at the site of a terrorist attack, additionally motivate the leaders of terrorist groups to acquire these weapons. Subsequently, this paper made a retrospective of the( in)direct connection between these weapons and terrorist groups, giving a general overview of weapons of mass destruction that could be used for terrorist purposes, and examining the certainty and possibility of their misuse to achieve terrorists’ goals.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Popović, M. (2011). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe oružja za masovno uništavanje u terorističke svrhe. Bezbednost, 53 (2), 149-168.

Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša kao prirodnih katastrofa (Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Drought as Natural Disaster)

As climatological disasters, droughts increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property, creating serious environmental problems including the negative impact on the environment. For these and other reasons, the droughts as a natural disaster are beginning to attract more attention of researchers all over the world who want to better comprehend them in the phenomenological and quantitative terms. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, the most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the drought is the statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of research is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of drought in the world during the period 1900-2013. In addition, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that the first step taken in the form of raw data Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels and then analyzed in the SPSS statistical analysis of data. Within geospatial analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought across continents and countries was considered, with special emphasis on the five most vulnerable countries to the total number and variety of consequences. On the same principle, within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought on annual, monthly and daily basis was examined, with special reference to the five most important in the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). In this sense, for effective and efficient protection and emergency response due to the deleterious effect of drought, it is inter alia stated comprehensively investigate natural phenomena using statistical method and the method of thematic mapping with the objective descriptions consequence, geospatial and timing of the manifestation of drought.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Bošković, D. (2015). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša kao prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbednost, 56 (3), 148-165.

Factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about natural disasters caused by landslides (Faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim klizištima)

Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o klizištu kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o klizištu. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o klizištu statistički značajno utiču (p<0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, strah od prirodnih katastrofa, edukacija u porodici i školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, uspeh u školi, život u domaćinstvu sa dedom, edukacija u porodici i školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. The quantitative research aims to determine the levels and factors influencing the perception and actual knowledge of high school students in the City of Belgrade about the landslide as a natural disaster. The paper uses the method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that affect students’ knowledge and perception of landslides. From the total population of high school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), for the needs of the research, a sample of 3,548 students was drawn, which makes 5.4% of the population. From the population of 101 Belgrade high schools, 13 were randomly selected. The results of the research show that students’ knowledge of the landslide is statistically significantly affected (p <0.05): gender, age, father’s education, school success; on perception: gender, fear of natural disasters, education in the family and school; and knowledge of the safety response procedure: age, school success, household life with grandfather, family and school education. The research covers the City of Belgrade so that the conclusions can be generalized only to the population of high school students in that geospace. Having in mind the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the results of the research can be used when creating strategies for educational programs, which would contribute to the improvement of the safety culture of young people, and thus their safety.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim klizištima. Bezbednost, 57(1), 32-51.

Ispitivanje stavova građana o mogućnostima zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe – Examining the attitudes of citizens about the possibilities of abusing chemical weapons for terrorist purposes

Starting from the seriousness of the consequences of disasters caused by terrorist attacks, quantitative research was conducted with the aim of scientifically describing the attitudes of citizens on important issues regarding the possibilities of abusing chemical weapons for terrorist purposes. The research was conducted on a sample of 115 respondents from the area of the city of Belgrade using a simple random sample. The obtained research results show that a high percentage of citizens know the negative consequences of chemical weapons. Also, it was determined that citizens differently assess the probability that a terrorist attack with chemical weapons will occur in The Republic of Serbia. In addition, it is noticeable that the public in Serbia does not perceive chemical terrorism as a threat, as well as the complete distrust of citizens in the readiness of state and non-state institutions in The Republic of Serbia to respond to disasters caused by terrorist attacks using chemical weapons. The lack of an empirical basis on the possibilities of abusing such weapons for terrorist purposes unequivocally testifies to the scientific contribution of the conducted research. On the other hand, the social significance of the research is reflected in the creation of preconditions for the integrated improvement of the level of security of the citizens of RS. Continuous research needs to be continued in order to demystify many research issues in the field of terrorist risk management. Polazeći od ozbilјnosti posledica katastrofa izazvanih terorističkim napadima, sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje sa cilјem naučne deskripcije stavova građana o značajnim pitanjima o mogućnostima zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na uzorku od 115 ispitanika sa područja grada Beograda korišćenjem prostog slučajnog uzorka. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da visok procenat građana poznaje negativne posledice hemijskog oružja. Takođe, utvrđeno je da građani različito procenjuju verovatnoću da će se teroristički napad hemijskim oružjem dogoditi u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, primetno je i da javnost u Srbiji ne doživlјava hemijski terorizam kao pretnju, kao i potpuno nepoverenje građana u pripremlјenost državnih i nedržavnih institucija u Republici Srbiji da odgovore na katastrofe izazvane terorističkim napadima upotrebom hemijskog oružja. Nepostojanje empirijske baze o mogućnostima zloupotrebe takvog oružja u terorističke svrhe nedvosmisleno svedoči o naučnom doprinosu sprovedenog istraživanja. S druge strane, društveni značaj istraživanja se ogleda u stvaranju pretpostavki za integrisano unapređenje nivoa bezbednosti građana RS. Potrebno je nastaviti sa kontinuiranim sprovođenjem istraživanja kako bi se demistifikovala mnogobrojna istraživačka pitanja iz oblasti upravlјanja rizicima od terorističkih napada.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Mlinar, M. (2020). Ispitivanje stavova građana o mogućnostima upotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe: studija slučaja Beograd. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 16 (1-2), 3-18.

Uticaj demografskih faktora na nivo informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The influence of demographic factors on the level of citizen awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters)

Sprovedeno istraživanje imalo je za cilј da utvrdi prirodu povezanosti demografskih karakteristika građana u Republici Srbiji i njihove u informisanosti o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama. Uzimajući u obzir sve opštine u Srbiji u kojima postoji rizik od poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetnaest. U odabranim opštinama primenom višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka anketirano je 2500 građana u onim delovima i domaćinstvima koji su ugroženi u odnosu na nivo stogodišnje visoke vode. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost ispitivanih demografskih karakteristika (pol, godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja i uspeh u srednjoj školi) i informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Samo 22% ispitanika je istaklo da je informisano o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Informisanost je najviša u vezi nadležnosti vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom, pri čemu su građani starosti od 48 do 58 godina u najvećoj meri informisani o nadležnostima policije. Građani koji imaju visoko obrazovanje zabeležili su viši nivo informisanosti o nadležnostima policije u odnosu na građane sa završenom srednjom/četvorogodišnjom školom. Takođe, utvrđena je statistički značajna razlika rezultata kod muškaraca i žena u pogledu informisanosti. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti za proaktivno pobolјšanje informisanosti građana imajući u vidu bezbednosne implikacije po sam rad policije u takvim situacijama. Društvena i naučna opravdanost istraživanja proizilazi iz neophodnosti sveobuhvatne analize rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama i njegove ocene od strane građana. The research was aimed to determine the nature of the relationship between demographic characteristics of citizens in the Republic of Serbia and their awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters caused by flooding. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, ninetee were randomly selected. In selected municipalities by using a multi-stage random sample 2,500 citizens were surveyed in those areas and households that are more vulnerable in relation to the level of a hundred year high water. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and success in high school) and the awareness of citizens on the responsibilities of the police in natural disasters. Only 22% of respondents noted that they are informed on the police responsibilities in natural disasters. Awareness is the highest in respect of responsibilities of fire and rescue units in natural disasters caused by flooding, whereby citizens aged 48 to 58 years are best informed on the police responsibilities. Citizens with university degrees showed a higher level of awareness about the police responsibilities compared to the citizens with completed secondary/four-year school. Also, there is a statistically significant difference in the results for men and women in terms of awareness. The research results can be used to proactively improve the awareness of citizens, bearing in mind the security implications for policing itself in such situations. Social and scientific justification of the research stems from the necessity of a comprehensive analysis of police work in natural disasters and its assessment by the citizens.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Milojković, B. (2016). Uticaj demografskih faktora na nivo informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Bezbednost, 38 (2), 8-17.

Comparative analysis of national security strategy of Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro (Komparativna analiza nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti Albanije, Makedonije i Crne Gore)

Strategija nacionalne bezbednosti jedne zemlje predstavlja jedan od najznačajnijih strateških dokumenata. Njime se reguliše organizacija, razvoj, funkcionisanje, ali i sva druga pitanja koja se odnose na sistem nacionalne bezbednosti. Upravo stoga, njihovom analizom može se steći uvid u osnovne smernice kojima se država direktno/indirektno rukovodi u ostvarivanju svoje bezbednosti. Takođe, kvalitetnijim i opsežnijim zapažanjima se može zaključiti da li su države suštinski bile zainteresovane da na jedan ozbiljan i valjan način donesu najvažniji strateški dokument u oblasti bezbednosti ili je pažnja bila usmerena na ispunjavanje određenih formi. Autori u radu, detaljnom analizom i komparacijom nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti preispituju strukturnu formu, karakteristike i osnovne smernice kojima su se Albanija, Makedonija i Crna Gora rukovodile prilikom njihovog koncipiranja. Takođe, ispituju se sve sličnosti, razlike i protivrečnosti koje se mogu pronaći u njima. Konkretnije rečeno, cilj rada je komparacija strategija na osnovu kriterijuma: interesi i ciljevi, bezbednosno okruženje, izazovi, rizici i pretnje i politika nacionalne bezbednosti. The national security strategy of a country is one of the most important strategic documents. It regulates the organization, development, operation and all other matters relating to the national security. It is, therefore, their analysis can gain an insight into the basic guidelines that state directly / indirectly guided in the exercise of their safety. Also, higher quality and more extensive observations we can conclude that there are essentially states that were interested in a serious and valid way to make a key strategic document in the field of security and attention was focused on the fulfillment of certain forms. The authors of the paper, a detailed analysis and comparison of national security strategy review structural form, characteristics and basic guidelines that are Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro mind during their conception. Also examined are the similarities, differences and contradictions to be found in them. More specifically, the aim of this work was to compare strategies on the basis of the following criteria: interests and goals, the security environment, the challenges, risks and threats and national security policy.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Stojković, D. (2014) Komparativna analiza nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti Albanije, Makedonije i Crne Gore. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 10 (3-4), 239-251.

Uticaj demografskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The impact of demographic factors on the expectation of assistance from the police in natural disasters)

In this work, subject of quantitative research is to examine the level and factors influencing the expectation of assistance from the police in the natural disaster caused by floods the Republic of Serbia with the aim of scientific explanations nature of such relationship. The survey was conducted in 19 local communities with risk of flooding. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015 with 2500 citizens. The research results show that there is a statistically significant correlation between the expectations of assistance from the police in the natural disasters caused by floods and sex and age, while it is not determined by the level of education and success in high school subjects. The research results can be used to improve the working of police in natural disasters caused by flooding. U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja nivoa i faktora uticaja na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom u Republici Srbiji sa cilјem naučnog objašnjenja prirode takve povezanosti. Istraživanje je obavlјeno u 19 opština u Srbiji u kojima postoji rizik od nastanka poplava. Istraživanje je realizovano primenom strategije anketnog ispitivanja u domaćinstvima korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka kojim je obuhvaćeno 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost očekivanja pomoći od policije sa polom i godinama starosti, dok ona nije utvrđena sa nivoom obrazovanja i uspehom u srednjoj školi. Orginalnost istraživanja proizilazi iz uspostavlјenih početnih osnova za unapređenje rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Srbiji.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj demografskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Srpska nauka danas, 1 (1), 8–17.

Privatne vojne kompanije u modernom dobu – Private military companies in the modern age

Velike sile su oduvek koristile usluge privatnih vojnih kompanija za potrebe ostvarivanja svojih vojnih i nevojnih ciljeva. Iako je to često bilo sakriveno od očiju javnosti, završetkom hladnog rata stvoreni su višestruki preduslovi za ubrzanije razvijanje privatnog sektora bezbednosti, a u okviru njega i privatnih vojnih kompanija. Smanjenje vojnih budžeta, kao i druge poteškoće u angažovanjima regularnih vojnih jedinica doprineli su značajnom ulasku privatnih vojnih kompanija na svetsku scenu kroz njihova mnogobrojna angažovanja od strane državnog sektora bezbednosti. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu na jedan vrlo sistematičan način analiziraju razvoj različitih karakteristika privatnih vojnih kompanija sa posebnim osvrtom na vrste i tipove usluga koje one pružaju. Pored toga, sagledavaju se konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih tržišta, ali i karakteristike privatnih vojnika i plaćenika. The Great Powers have always used the services of private military companies to achieve their military and non-military goals. Although this was often hidden from the public eye, the end of the Cold War created multiple preconditions for the more rapid development of the private security sector, and within it private military companies. Reductions in military budgets, as well as other difficulties in the engagement of regular military units, have contributed to the significant entry of private military companies on the world stage through their numerous engagements by the state security sector. Guided by this, the authors analyze the development of various characteristics of private military companies in a very systematic way, with special reference to the types and types of services they provide. In addition, the conceptual foundations of private military markets are considered, as well as the characteristics of private soldiers and mercenaries.

Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Privantne vojne kompanije u modernom dobu. Vojno delo, 71(2), 42-54.

Fenomenologija prirodnih katastrofa: teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija (Phenomenology of natural disasters: theoretical determination and classification)

In the scientific literature, domestic and international, theoretical definition and classification of natural disasters is a very topical issue. Necessity and motivation of authors to establish a concise definition, stems from the need for clear demarcation of a disaster than anything else, and the first since it averages concepts such as hazards, crises and emergency situations. Of course, the interest from the definition arises from the need to describe the field of study and create the conditions for the accumulation of knowledge and theory building. At the same time, researchers in the field of disaster studies, meet with discussions and debates about the demarcation of the conceptual definition of disaster. The research results show that the theoretical definition of natural disasters followed: the social environment within which it was created, a discipline that originated from, purpose, geographical region of origin, etc. When looking at their formation, it is noticed that the first definition given by linguists and that they are largely held specific cultures and languages within which they were made. Over time they have evolved from multilateral changing the world. Many of them, although at first sight contradictory, produced in the same categorical domains. Based on different theoretical and empirical grounds. Also, is not the same as the definition of disaster phenomena or areas of study. Researchers often fall into the trap that the conceptual basis of phenomena such as disaster, replaced explanations as to what does and how society act in such situations. Due to the foregoing, when defining and classification of natural disasters, it is necessary to be very cautious and thorough. In particular, it is necessary to take into account to cover aspects of causes, characteristics and consequences of such a phenomenon. U naučnoj literaturi, domaćoj i svetskoj, teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa predstavlјa veoma aktuelno pitanje. Neophodnost i motivisanost autora za uspostavlјanje konciznih definicija proizilazi iz potrebe jasnog razgraničenja katastrofa od svega ostalog, a najpre od njemu srodnih koncepata kao što su opasnosti, krize i rizici. Svakako, interes od definisanja proizilazi iz potrebe da se opiše oblast proučavanja i stvore uslovi za akumulaciju znanja i izgradnju teorija. Pri tome, istraživači iz oblasti studija katastrofa, susreću se i sa diskusijama i debatama oko razgraničenja pojmovnog određenja katastrofa od vanrednih situacija. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je teorijsko određenje prirodnih katastrofa pratilo: društveni ambijent u čijim okvirima je i nastalo, naučnu disciplinu iz koje je poteklo, svrhu, geografski region nastanka itd. Kada se posmatra njihov nastanak, primećuje se da su prve definicije date od strane lingvista i da su one u velikoj meri održavale specifičnosti kulture i jezika u sklopu koga su i nastale. Vremenom su evoluirale u skladu sa višestranim promenama u svetu. Veliki broj njih, iako na prvi pogled protivrečne, nastaju u okviru istog kategoričnog domena. Počivaju na različitim teorijskim i empirijskim osnovama. Takođe, nije isto definisanje katastrofe kao fenomena ili oblasti proučavanja. Istraživači često upadaju u zamku da konceptualne osnove fenomena kao što je katastrofa, zamenjuju objašnjenjima šta čini i kako društvo deluje u takvim situacijama. Predmet rada predstavlјa teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa, sa posebnim osvrtom na njene posledice.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Fenomenologija prirodnih katastrofa – teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 11 (3 – 4), 311-335.

Kvalitativno istraživanje pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Qualitative research of citizens preparedness for natural disasters)

The paper presents the results of qualitative research on the readiness of citizens in Serbia to respond to natural disasters caused by the flood. The study used the recommended intentional sample and interviews were conducted with persons who are from the area of local communities at risk of flooding. The sample included ten participants from Loznica, Šabac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Sečanj, Novi Sad, Lapovo and Rekovac who were asked an identical set of basic questions, after which the discussions were directed according to estimates of their interest, sincerity, and seriousness. The results of the conducted research allow gaining more insight into how much citizens are willing to respond and to create a broader picture of the relationship that citizens have towards the obligation of preparing for natural disasters. Key words: natural disaster, flood, perception, knowledge, supplies, stock, interview, Serbia. U radu su izneti rezultati kvalitativnog istraživanja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom u Srbiji. U istraživanju je korišćen preporučeni namerni uzorak i intervju je obavljen sa informantima sa područja lokalnih zajednica ugroženih poplavom. Uzorkom je obuhvaćeno deset učesnika iz Loznice, Šapca, Sremske Mitrovice, Priboja, Batočine, Sečnja, Novog Sada, Lapova i Rekovca. Učesnicima je postavljen identičan set osnovnih pitanja, nakon čega su razgovori bili usmeravani shodno procenama zainteresovanosti, iskrenosti i ozbiljnosti. Rezultati sprovedenog istraživanja omogućavaju sticanje kvalitetnijih uvida u spremnost građana za reagovanje i stvaranje šire slike o odnosu koji građani imaju prema obavezi pripremanja za prirodne katastrofe.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Andrejević, T. (2016). Qualitative research readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Serbian science today, 1 (3), 393-404.

Spremnost za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu – pregled literature (Preparedness for natural disasters – review of the literature)

U naučnoj literaturi ne postoji jasan konsenzus u pogledu teorijskog određenja, kao i načina (prirode) uticaja raznovrsnih faktora na spremnost za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe. Upravo stoga, sistematičnim pregledom postojećih istraživanja i primenjenih teorijskih koncepata, moguće je uočiti neophodnost njihove dalјe sistematizacije, a posebno potrebe dalјeg objašnjenja međusobne povezanosti demografskih, socioekonomskih i psiholoških faktora sa nivoom spremnosti za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Shodno tome, predmet rada predstavlјa deskripcija i analiza relevantnih naučnih radova (88) sa cilјem njihovog razvrstavanja prema kriterijumima teorijskog određenja i faktora uticaja na nivo spremnosti za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe. Rezultati istraživanja omogućavaju jasan uvid u mrežu postojećih teorijskih objašnjenja i faktora koji utiču na nivo spremnosti. Pretraga postojećih radova u domaćoj i stranoj literaturi izvršena je uz pomoć servisa ,,Google scholar“, popularne mreže kooperativnog ,,on line“ bibliografskog sistema i servisa (COBISS), srpskog citatnog indeksa (SCI) i portala konzorcijuma biblioteka Srbije za objedinjenu nabavku (KoBSON). In the scientific literature, there is no clear consensus on the theoretical determination, as well as ways (nature) the impact of various factors on the preparedness to respond to natural disasters. Precisely with this, a systematic review of existing research and applied theoretical concepts, it is possible to perceive the necessity of their further systematization, and in particular the need for further explanation of the interconnectedness of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with the level of readiness to respond to a natural disaster. Accordingly, the subject of this paper is a description and analysis of relevant scientific papers (88) with a view to their classification according to the criteria of theoretical determination and factors affecting the level of preparedness for responding to natural disasters. The research results provide a clear insight into the network of existing theoretical explanations and the factors that influence the level of preparedness. Search existing work in domestic and foreign literature was carried out with the help of service ,,Google scholar“, a popular network of cooperative ,,on line“ bibliographic systems and services (COBISS), Serbian Citation Index (SCI) and portal consortium of Serbian library purchase (CoBSON).

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Spremnost za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu – pregled literature. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 11 (1-2), 165-183.

Povezanost uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Relationship between success in secondary school and citizens preparedness for natural disaster)

This paper presents the results of quantitative research of relationship between success in secondary school and citizens preparednesss to respond a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Research was conducted in 2015 in 19 municipalities in Serbia where there is a risk of flooding. Research was conducted using the strategy of a survey in households using multi-stage random sample that included 2,500 citizens. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant between certain variables: preventive measures, financial resources, raising the river, level of preparedness, individual. preparedness, household preparedness, community preparedness and etc. The originality of the research stems from the fact unexamined influence success in high school on preparedness of citizens. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond with regard to success in secondary school. U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja povezanosti uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Istraživanje je obavlјeno 2015. godine u 19 opština u Srbiji sa prisutnim rizikom od nastanka poplava. Realizovano je primenom strategije anketnog ispitivanja u domaćinstvima korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka kojim je obuhvaćeno 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost sa određenim promenlјivama: preventivne mere, novčana sredstva, podizanje nivoa reka, nivo spremnosti, ndivid. spremnost, spremnost domaćinstva, spremnost lok. zajednice, spremnost države itd. Orginalnost istraživanja proizilazi iz činjenice neispitanog uticaja uspeha u srednjoj školi na spremnost građanā. Rezultati mogu biti iskorišćeni prilikom kreiranja strategije unapređenja nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje s obzirom na uspeh u srednjoj školi koji su ostvarili građani.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Povezanost uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 12(3-4), 61-84.

Istraživanje stavova građana o pripremljenosti za katastrofe izazvane šumskim požarima: studija slučaja Prijepolje (Research on the attitudes of citizens on preparedness for a disaster caused by forest fires: a case study of Prijepolje)

Starting with the severity of wildfires and the fact that about one third of the territory of Polimlje consists of forests and that wildfires are relatively common in Prijepolje, the aim of our research is to examine the influencing factors of certain independent variables (sex, marital status, age, education, etc.) on different dimensions of preparedness for a disaster caused by wildfires. By multi-stage random sampling, starting with the theory of planned behavior, a survey was conducted in 15 settlements within the municipality of Prijepolje on a sample of 197 respondents. The results of the survey indicate a low level of preparedness among the inhabitants of Prijepolje (citizens generally believe that they do not have the necessary knowledge to respond to disasters caused by wildfires and are generally not interested in attending training; they do not have plans or equipment for response and the majority of them think wildfires do not pose any danger to them). Also, the influence of certain factors on the attitudes toward preparedness was unequivocally determined. The scientific significance of the survey is reflected in the creation of preconditions for the improvement of empirical knowledge in the area of disaster risk management, while the practical significance is reflected in the creation of preconditions for improving the safety of citizens from wildfires. Polazeći od ozbilјnosti šumskih požara i činjenice da oko jednu trećinu teritorije Polimlјa čine šume i da su šumski požari relativno česta pojava u Prijepolјu, predmet istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje činioca uticaja određenih nezavisnih promenlјivih (pol, bračni status, starost, obrazovanje itd) na različite dimenzije pripremlјenosti za katastrofu uzrokovanu šumskim požarima. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, polazeći od teorije planiranog ponašanja, sprovedeno je anketno ispitivanje na teritoriji 15 naselјa opštine Prijepolјa i, tom prilikom, uzorkom je obuhvaćeno 197 ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na nizak nivo pripremlјenosti kod stanovnika Prijepolјa (građani, uglavnom, veruju da ne poseduju neophodno znanje za reagovanje u katastro- fama uzrokovanim šumskim požarima, pretežno nisu zainteresovani za pohađanje obuke, ne poseduju planove i opremu za reagovanje i većina ne smatra da im preti opasnost od šumskih požara). Takođe, nedvosmisle- no su utvrđeni i uticaji određenih faktora na stavove o pripremlјenosti. Naučni značaj istraživanja ogleda se u stvaranju preduslova za unapređenje empirijskog fonda saznanja iz oblasti upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa, dok se praktični značaj ogleda u stvaranju preduslova za unapređenje bezbednosti građana od šumskih požara.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Filipović, B. (2020). Istraživanje stavova građana o pripremljenosti za katastrofe izazvane šumskim požarima: studija slučaja Prijepolje. Žurnal za bezbjednost i kriminalistiku, 2(2), 11-24.

Assessment of Women’s Vulnerability and their Coping Mechanism Living in Flood prone Areas: A Case Study of Belkuchi Upazila, Sirajgan (Procena ranjivosti žena i mehanizmi njihovog suočavanja sa posledicama u oblastima izloženim poplavama: studija slučaja Belkuči Upazila, Sirajganj)

Women are the most vulnerable in a disastrous situation compared to their male counterpart. It is evident in several studies that among all other natural disasters, flood causes immense sufferings of women due to the low standard of living condition in flood prone areas of Bangladesh and poor institutional arrangement. The geographical location and low elevation of land with numerous rivers is caused Bangladesh most vulnerable to flooding. This research is focused to explore women’s vulnerability at the community level due to flood and possible coping mechanisms. Both secondary and primary data have been used and analyzed to identify vulnerability and women’s coping mechanism with flood at Khidrachappur, Baradul in Belkuchi Upazila. The study found that the flood has adverse impacts which are different for different population groups. In reality, women are affected more severely and their role is quite negligible in decision making, and participation in training related to flood issues is also insignificant. Women suffer from physical injuries and are often evicted from their dwellings due to floods. Difficulties in finding adequate shelter, food, safe water, and fuel for cooking, as well as problems in maintaining personal hygiene and sanitation, prevent women from performing their usual roles at home. Despite this heavy burden, which women bear in extremely difficult circumstances, they demonstrate considerable fortitude and ingenuity in their attempts to cope with the flood by taking several steps like selling assets, moving towards high place, storing dry food, social networking, borrowing money, collecting safe drinking water and managing household activities etc. It was noted that despite all adversities women can cope with the flood situation and show their resilience capacity. Žene su ranjivije u odnosu na muškarce za vreme katastrofalnih situacija. U mnogim studijama zabeleženo je da od svih prirodnih katastrofa za vreme poplava žene doživlјavaju ogromne patnje pogotovo zbog niskog životnog standarda i lošeg institucionalnog angažmana u oblastima sa visokim rizikom nastanka poplava u Bangladešu. Geografska lokacija i niža nadmorska visina terena sa većim brojem reka čini Bangladeš veoma ugroženim. Predmet istraživanja odnosi se na ispitivanje ranjivosti žena i načine preživlјavanja posledica poplava. Primarni i sekundarni podaci analizirani su kako bi se identifikovala ranjivost i mehanizmi suočavanja žena sa posledicama poplava u Kidrahapuru, Baradulu u Belkuhi Upazili. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da posledica poplava različito utiču na muškarce i žene. Takođe, utvrđeno je da žene doživlјavaju ozbilјnije posledice, da je njihova uloga u procesu odlučivanju poprilično zanemarena, kao i učestvovanje u obukama. Teškoće prilikom pronalaska adekvatnog smeštaja, hrane i vode, problemi u održavanju lične higijene onemogućavaju žene da obavlјaju svoje svakodnevne aktivnosti u domaćinstvima. Uprkos poteškoćama sa kojima se susreću za vreme katastrofa, one pokazuju istrajnost i genijalnost u pokušajima da se izbore sa poplavom pa često preduzimaju sledeće mere: prodaja i preselјenje u delove zajednica sa višom nadmorskom visionom, skladištenje suve hrane, pozajmlјivanje novca. Dakle, pored svih nedaća žene su pokazale da su kadre da se suoče sa posledicama poplava.

Referenca – Kutub, J. R., Cvetković, V. M., & Huq, S. (2017). Assessment of Women’s Vulnerability and their Coping Mechanism Living in Flood-prone Areas: A Case Study of Belkuchi Upazila, Sirajganj. Serbian Science Today, 2(1), 35-43.

Mogućnosti zloupotrebe biološkog oružja u terorostičke svrhe (Possibilities of misuse of biological weapons for terrorist purposes)

Vekovima unazad biološki agensi su korišćeni za ratovanje, terorističke ili kriminalne aktivnosti. Može se reći da je izgledalo da će potpisivanje Konvencije o biološkom oružju doprineti da ono postane samo neprijatna uspomena na vremena kada se upotrebljavalo. Međutim, bioterorizam je postao realnost savremenog sveta zbog svojih karakteristika i posledica koje uzrokuje. Pri tome, ekspanzija visoke tehnologije s jedne i sposobnost biološkog oružja da izazove ,,masovno uništavanje“ ili ,,masovne žrtve“ s druge strane, pomera fokus javnosti i stručnjaka sa pitanja ,,da li će se“ na pitanje ,,kada će se dogoditi teroristički napad biološkim oružjem“. Upravo stoga u radu je dat osvrt na pojam, klasifikaciju i istorijat upotrebe biološkog oružja. Takođe je dat i generalni pregled mogućnosti njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe i zaštite od biološkog oružja. Centuries ago, biological agents were used for warfare, terrorist or criminal activities. It can be said that the signing of the Convention on Biological Weapons seemed to contribute to the fact that it became only an unpleasant memory of the times when it was used. However, bioterrorism has become a reality of the modern world due to its characteristics and the consequences it causes. At the same time, the expansion of high technology on the one hand and the ability of biological weapons to cause “mass destruction” or “mass casualties” on the other, shifts the focus of the public and experts from “will” to “when” a terrorist attack with biological weapons occurs. ” That is why the paper gives an overview of the concept, classification and history of the use of biological weapons. A general overview of the possibilities of its use for terrorist purposes and protection against biological weapons was also given.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe biološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Bezbednost, 55 (1), 122-140.

Naučni rad u tematskom zborniku nacionalnog značaja i u tematskom zborniku međunarodnog značaja

Informaciono-logistički sistemi i baze podataka od značaja za integrisano upravlјanje u katastrofama – Information-logistics systems and databases important for integrated disaster management

Poteškoće u procesu upravlјanja u katastrofama uslovlјene su delovanjem mnogobrojnih faktora kao što su složenost i velika brzina širenja štetnih dejstava opasnosti, nedostatak pravovremenih i tačnih informacija, komplikovanost donošenja klјučnih odluka, nemogućnost sagledavanja celokupne situacije u kratkom vremenskom periodu, složenost upravlјanja neophodnim resursima itd. Iz tih razloga, efikasno reagovanje na katastrofe je uslovlјeno dostupnošću različitih podataka koji su pothranjeni u mnogobrojnim međunarodnim i nacionalnim bazama podataka koje se mogu koristiti u realnom vremenu. Osim toga, donosioci odluka su prinuđeni da koriste različite informacione sisteme i alate koji im omogućavaju brze i tačne proračune u cilјu donošenja odgovarajućih odluka u konkretnoj situaciji. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu primenom metode analize sadržaja i pregledom literature, identifikuju, analiziraju i sveobuhvatno sistematizuju i opisuju značajne karakteristike takvih baza i informacionih sistema. Cilј naučnog rada predstavlјa naučna deskripcija informaciono-logističkih sistema i baza podataka od značaja za upravlјanje u katastrofama. Naučni značaj rada ogleda se u sistematizaciji naučnih saznanja o prednostima i nedostacima korišćenja informacionih sistema i baza podataka o katastrofama. Nasuprot tome, društvene implikacije rada ogledaju se u informisanju nadležnih službi o postojanju i mogućnostima korišćenja informacionih sistema i baza podataka u konkretnim slučajevima upravlјanja u katastrofama. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, katastrofe, upravlјanje, baze podataka, informacioni sistemi, logistički sistemi. Difficulties in the disaster management process are caused by many factors such as the complexity and fast-spreading harmful effects of hazards, lack of timely and accurate information, difficulty in making key decisions, inability to assess the situation in a short time, the complexity of managing necessary resources, etc. For these reasons, effective disaster response is conditioned by the availability of a variety of data stored in numerous international and national databases that can be used in real-time. In addition, decision-makers are forced to use a variety of information systems and tools that allow them to make quick and accurate calculations in order to make appropriate decisions in a particular situation. Guided by this, the authors, using the method of content analysis and literature review, identify, analyze and comprehensively systematize and describe the significant characteristics of such databases and information systems. The aim of this paper is the scientific description of information and logistics systems and databases that are important for disaster management. The scientific significance of the paper is reflected in the systematization of scientific knowledge about the advantages and disadvantages of using information systems and databases on disasters. In contrast, the social implications of the paper are reflected in informing competent services about the existence and possibilities of using information systems and databases in specific cases of disaster management. Keywords: security, disasters, management, databases, information systems, logistics systems.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Planić, J., Ivković, T., Radojković, S., Stefanović, M., Miljković, N. (2022). Informaciono-logistički sistemi i baze podataka od značaja za integrisano upravlјanje u katastrofama.

Fenomenološke i etiološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih zemljotresom (Phenomenological and etiological dimensions of earthquake disasters)

Prirodne katastrofe su postale deo svakodnevnog života savremenog čoveka, i njihove pojave su sve učestalije i intenzivnije zbog klimatskih promena. Zemljotresi zbog svoje nepredvidivosti predstavljaju jednu od najstrašnijih i najskupljih prirodnih katastrofa. Autori u ovom radu, koristeći pregled literature, predstavljaju osnovne karakteristike zemljotresa kao pri-rodnih katastrofa, kao i značaj pripremljenosti u odgovoru na prirodne katastrofe. Prikazani su osnovni elementi zemljotresa, klasifikacija, skale za merenje jačine zemljotresa i posledice koje izazivaju zemljotresi. S obzirom na to da pripremljenost za katastrofe na nivou pojedinca, zajednice i društva predstavlja efikasno oruđe u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa i ublažavanju njihovih posledica, u radu je posebna pažnja posvećena načinima poboljšanja pripremljenosti. Korišćenjem brojnih naučnih radova, prikazana su iskustva mnogih država čije primere je potrebno pratiti kako bi se na pravilan način osmislile i implementirale strategije ublažavanja posledica prirodnih katastrofa, i programi edukacije građana. Natural disasters have become a part of the everyday life of modern man, and their occurrences are more frequent and intense due to climate change. Due to their unpredictability, earthquakes are one of the most terrible and expensive natural di-sasters. The authors in this paper, using a review of the literature, present the basic characteristics of earthquakes as natural disasters, as well as the importance of preparedness in response to natural disasters. The basic elements of earthquakes, classification, scales for measuring the strength of earthquakes, and the consequences caused by earthquakes are presented. Given that disaster preparedness at the level of the individual, community and society is an effective tool in reducing the risk of disasters and mitigating their consequences, this paper pays special attention to methods that improve preparedness. Using numerous scientific papers, the experiences of many countries are presented, whose examples need to be followed in order to properly design and implement strategies for mitigating the consequences of natural disasters, and education programs for citizens.

Referenca – Planić, J., Cvetković, V. (2022). Fenomenološke i etiološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih zemljotresom. Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 269-321. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.

Komunikacija o rizicima od katastrofa (Disaster Risk Communications)

Komunikacija rizika od katastrofa predstavlja jedan od temelјa uspešnog upravlјanja u katastrofama koji se ogleda u smanjenju razarajućih uticaja opasnosti od katastrofa na lјudske živote i imovinu, obezbeđenjem pravovremenih kritičnih informacija ugroženim zajednicama. Nedovoljno razvijen sistem indetifikacije, analize i deljenja informacija o rizicima od katastrofa dovodi do lošeg upravljanja u svim fazama katastrofa (ublažavanje, pripremljenost, odgovor i oporavak). U svakoj od spomenutih faza upravljanja postoje jasni zahtevi za specifičnim informacijama koje omogućavaju efikasno donošenje ključnih i blagovremenih odluka. Razmena informacija o rizicima od katastrofa je pod uticajem velikog broja faktora kao što su stepen naučno-tehnološke razvijenosti, demografskog, sociološkog i psihološkog ambijenta, kao i samih karakteristika prirodnih i antropogenih opasnosti. Polazeći od nesumnjivog značaja informacija o rizicima od katastrofa, autori u preglednom radu identifikuju, analiziraju i sistematizuju relevantne aspekte fenomenoloških dimenzija komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa. Posebna pažnja posvećena je sveobuhvatnom sagledavanju izvora, subjekata i sredstava komunikacije, sa osvrtom na inovativna rešenja i strategije komunikacije u odgovoru na rizike od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa. Disaster risk communication is one of the foundations of successful disaster management, which is reflected in reducing the devastating effects of disaster hazards on human lives and property by providing timely critical information to vulnerable communities. Insufficiently developed system of identification, analysis, and sharing information on disaster risks leads to poor management in all phases of disasters (mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery). In each of the mentioned management phases, precise requirements for specific information enable the efficient making of crucial and timely decisions. The exchange of information on disaster risks is influenced by many factors such as the degree of scientific and technological development, demographic, sociological, and psychological environment, and the characteristics of natural and anthropogenic hazards. Starting from the undoubted importance of information on disaster risks, the authors in a review paper identify, analyze and systematize the relevant aspects of the phenomenological dimensions of disaster risk communication. Special attention is paid to a comprehensive overview of sources, subjects, and means of communication, with a review of innovative solutions and communication strategies in response to the natural and anthropogenic disaster risk.

Referenca – Radovanović, M., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Komunikacija rizika od katastrofa. U Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 269-321. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.

Fenomenološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima (Phenomenological dimensions of disasters caused by fires in residential buildings)

Katastrofe izazvane požarima u stambenim objektima predstavlјaju ozbilјnu pretnju po život i zdravlјe lјudi i njihove imovine. Unapređenje otpornosti društva, zahteva spoznaju različitih perspektiva i dimenzija požara u stambenim objektima. Primenom metoda analize literature, autori u radu analiziraju i ispituju trenutne mere zaštite od požara koje dovode do nejednakog nivoa zaštite od požara u zgradama i ne uzimaju u obzir savremene izazove, rizike i pretnje od požara. Posebnu pažnju, autori usmeravaju na preispitivanje indikatora nastanka požara i mere generalne prevencije i ublažavanja rizika od nastanka požara. Implikacije preglednog rada imaju veliki značaj za donosioce odluka u Republici Srbiji pred kojima je sve obimniji zahtev za integrisanim unapređenjem bezbednosti lјudi od požara u stambenim objektima.Disasters caused by fires in residential buildings pose a serious threat to the life and health of people and their property. Improving the resilience of society requires knowledge of different perspectives and dimensions of fire in residential buildings. Using the methods of literary analysis, the authors analyze and examine current fire protection measures that lead to unequal levels of fire protection in buildings and do not take into account modern challenges, risks, and fire threats. The authors pay special attention to the review of fire indicators, general prevention measures, and mitigation of fire risks. The implications of the review are of great importance for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia, who are facing an increasingly extensive demand for integrated improvement of human safety from fires in residential buildings.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Protić, D. (2021). Fenomenološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima. Akademija tehničkih strukovnih studija Beograd, Primenjene inženjerske nauke Požarevac, Nemanjina 2, Požarevac. 9. Savetovanјe, Upravljanјe rizicima, 24. decembra 2021. godine.

Bezbednosni aspekti zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim katastrofama: studija slučaja Beograda (Security aspects of critical infrastructure protection in anthropogenic disasters: a case study of Belgrade)

Recognized as the basis for maintaining the functionality of the community in disaster conditions, the protection of critical infrastructure is one of the most important measures to improve the resilience of society. Starting from the fact that society can be affected by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, the subject of this chapter refers to a comprehensive analysis of the security aspects of critical infrastructure protection in anthropogenic and technical-technological disasters. On the other hand, the social goal of the research is to determine the level of public awareness of the importance of protecting critical infrastructure from these disasters. By applying the quantitative research tradition, quantitative research was realized in the area of the city of Belgrade, in which 200 respondents were interviewed by the method of random sampling. The obtained research results unequivocally indicate that preventive action in this area should be mainly focused on the adoption of strategies based on which plans are made to prevent the occurrence of these disasters, as well as operational procedures for critical infrastructure protection. Prepoznata kao osnova održavanja funkcionalnosti društvene zajednice u uslovima katastrofa, zaštita kritične infrastrukture predstavlja jednu od najznačajnih mera unapređivanja otpornosti društva. Polazeći od činjenica da društvo može biti pogođeno različitim prirodnim i antropogenim katastrofama, predmet ovog poglavlja odnosi se na sveobuhvatnu analizu bezbednosnih aspekata zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim i tehničko-tehnološkim katastrofama. Sa druge strane, društveni cilj istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa upućenosti javnosti u značaj zaštite kritične infrastrukture od spomenutih katastrofa. Primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije, realizovano je istraživanje na području grada Beograda, a u kojem je metodom slučajnog uzorka anketirano 200 ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju da preventivno delovanje u ovoj oblasti uglavnom treba da bude usmereno na donošenje strategija na osnovu kojih se izrađuju planovi za sprečavanje nastanka spomenutih katastrofa, kao i operativne procedure zaštite kritične infrastrukture.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Kezunović, A. (2021). Bezbednosni aspekti zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim katastrofama: studija slučaja Beograda. Zbornik radova, u štapi. U Forenzičko računovodstvo, istražne radnje, ljudski faktor i primenjeni alati. Beograd: Fakultet organizacionih nauka, Univerzitet u Beogradu.

Uloga multimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama (The role of multimedia content in educating young people about disasters)

Obrazovanje o katastrofama predstavlja jedan od najznačajnijih preduslova unapređenja pripremljenosti društva i građana za blagovremeno i adekvatno reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Iz tih razloga, koriste se različiti tradicionalni i inovativni načini edukacije mladih o katastrofama koji imaju za cilj unapređenje njihove otpornosti na različite prirodne i antropogene katastrofe. Koristeći pregled literature, autori u radu na jedan sistematičan način elaboriraju osnovne karakteristike obrazovanja o katastrofama, ali i karakteristike i načine primene multimedijalnih sadržaja u takvom procesu. Ne zapostavlajući značaj tradicionalnih obrazovanih metoda, autori u radu predstavljaju osnovne modalitete sticanja znanja o katastrofama kroz školske programe sa osvrtom na njihovu bezbednostu u školskim objektima. Rezultati preglednog rada pokazuju da postoji ozbiljan dostupan društveni i naučno-pragmatični ambijent za osmišljavanje i implementaciju multimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama. Potrebno je nastaviti sa sprovođenjem istraživanja u ovoj oblasti u cilju unapređenja razumevanja svih prednosti i nedostataka upotrebe multimedija u obrazovanje svrh. Disaster education is one of the essential preconditions for improving the preparedness of society and citizens for timely and adequate response in such situations. For these reasons, various traditional and innovative ways of educating young people about disasters are used, which aim to improve their resilience to various natural and anthropogenic disasters. Using the literature review, the authors elaborate systematically the essential characteristics of disaster education, but also the characteristics and ways of applying multimedia content in such a process. Without neglecting the importance of traditional educational methods, the authors present the primary modalities of acquiring knowledge about disasters through school programs to review their safety in school facilities. The results of the review work show that there is a severe available social and scientific-pragmatic environment for the design and implementation of multimedia content in educating young people about disasters. It is necessary to continue researching this area to improve the understanding of all the advantages and disadvantages of using multimedia for educational purposes.

Referenca – Krnjić, I., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Uloga mutlimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama. Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 206-227. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.

Risk management of natural disasters: concepts and methods (Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa: koncepti i metodi)

Every day, people are exposed to a variety of risks ranging from small and insignificant to larger ones, such as natural disasters. The concept of risk has been a topic of interest for researchers from different disciplines in the past fifty years. For these reasons, there are many definitions of risk which reflect a scientific discipline itself from which they originated. Managing risks of natural disasters is very complex and conditioned by the existence of well-defined and elaborated management model that will allow efficient and prompt elimination of consequences. Certainly, understanding of the perception of risk is essential for the management prosess. Namely, individuals diferently perceive risks of natural disasters due to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. Thereby, there are various methods of risk evaluation, which are conditioned by scientific-disciplinary approach, origin and size of risks. Starting from the multi-dimensionality of risks of natural disasters, authors firstly analyze the theoretical determination of risk through the lens of different disciplines and perspectives with special emphasis on the types of risks. In addition, special attention is given to consideration of the risk management process through generally accepted models, methods and methodology of risk assessment in Serbia. Also, the paper gives an overview of the most important approaches to risks of natural disasters in social sciences. Ljudi su svakodnevno izloženi raznim rizicima, od malih i neznatnih do većih, poput prirodnih katastrofa. Koncept rizika tema je koja je bila interesantna za istraživače iz različitih disciplina u poslednjih pedeset godina. Iz ovih razloga postoji mnogo definicija rizika koje odražavaju samu naučnu disciplinu iz koje potiču. Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa veoma je složeno i uslovljeno je postojanjem dobro definisanog i razrađenog modela upravljanja koji će omogućiti efikasno i brzo uklanjanje posledica. Svakako, razumevanje percepcije rizika je od suštinske važnosti za proces menadžmenta. Naime, pojedinci različito percipiraju rizike od prirodnih katastrofa zbog svojih demografskih, socijalno-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika. Stoga postoje različite metode procene rizika, koje su uslovljene naučno-disciplinskim pristupom, poreklom i veličinom rizika. Polazeći od višedimenzionalnosti rizika od prirodnih katastrofa, autori prvo analiziraju teorijsko određivanje rizika kroz sočiva različitih disciplina i perspektiva sa posebnim naglaskom na vrste rizika. Pored toga, posebna pažnja se posvećuje razmatranju procesa upravljanja rizikom kroz opšteprihvaćene modele, metode i metodologiju procene rizika u Srbiji. Takođe, u radu je dat pregled najvažnijih pristupa rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa u društvenim naukama.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods. International Journal of Recent Research in Arts and Sciences, 8 (1), 540-558.

Zadaci vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u terorističkom napadu izazvanom upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje (The tasks of fire-rescue units in a terrorist attack caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction)

Teroristički napadi, izazvani upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje, predstavlјaju ,,noćnu moru“ ozbilјnih rukovodilaca vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica. Pored policije i službe hitne medicinske pomoći, ove jedinice imaju značajnu ulogu na licu mesta terorističkog napada. Prilikom otklanjanja posledica terorističkog napada, osoblјe vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica biće opterećeno mnogobrojnim zadacima koje će morati da preduzme. Prisustvo oružja za masovno uništavanje i velikog broja povređenih koji su ujedno i kontaminirani, umnogome će komplikovati postupanje ovih jedinica. Osoblјe vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica mora biti sposobno da identifikuje ovo oružje, odredi dimenzije opasnosti, kao i mere predostrožnosti koje će biti zahtevane. U cilјu efikasnijeg obavlјanja poslova, moraju imati razvijene procedure i razrađene taktike postupanja, kao i odgovarajuća zaštitna sredstva. Dakle, moraju posedovati odgovarajuću opremu za rad sa opasnim materijama. Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka, pored zaštite života i zdravlјa, biće dekontaminacija kojoj se mora pristupiti krajnje savesno i obazrivo. U radu se analizira i sagledava uloga vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica na licu mesta terorističkog napada izazvanog upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje. Daje se generalni pregled njihovih aktivnosti od prijema dojave do završetka intervencije sa posebnim osvrtom na samu taktiku pristupanja licu mesta terorističkog napada. Razmatraju se zaštitna sredstva i oprema neophodna za rad u opasnom okruženju, kao i uloga vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u procesu dekontaminacije. Terrorist attacks, caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction, represent a “nightmare” of serious leaders of fire and rescue units. In addition to the police and the emergency medical service, these units have a significant role at the scene of a terrorist attack. During the elimination of the consequences of the terrorist attack, the staff of the fire and rescue units will be burdened with numerous tasks that they will have to undertake. The presence of weapons of mass destruction and a large number of injured people who are also contaminated will greatly complicate the actions of these units. Fire and rescue personnel must be able to identify these weapons, determine the dimensions of the danger, as well as the precautions that will be required. In order to perform their work more efficiently, they must have developed procedures and elaborated tactics of action, as well as appropriate protective equipment. Therefore, they must have appropriate equipment for working with hazardous substances. One of the most important tasks, in addition to the protection of life and health, will be decontamination, which must be approached with the utmost conscientiousness and caution. The paper analyzes and examines the role of fire and rescue units on the spot of a terrorist attack caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction. A general overview of their activities from the receipt of the report to the end of the intervention is given, with special reference to the tactics of approaching the scene of a terrorist attack. Protective means and equipment necessary for work in a dangerous environment are considered, as well as the role of fire and rescue units in the decontamination process.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2012). Zadaci vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u terorističkom napadu izazvanom upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje. Zbornik radova – Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, Beograd, 146-160.

Stanje i novi izazazovi vatrogasno – spasilačkih službi u svetu (The situation and new challenges of fire and rescue services in the world)

Društveno-ekonomski uslovi, posebno sveopšta ekonomska kriza i njen dalji tok najznačajniji su uzrok daljeg razvoja i usavršavanja vatrogasno-spasilačkih službi, posebno u velikim gradovima. Analiza statističkih podataka u radu govori u prilog tome da se VSS razvijaju i opremaju, pre svega prateći razvoj gradova, povećanje broja stanovnika i opšteg napretka nauke i tehnike. Stalno samoispitivanje zajedno sa prepoznavanjem prihvatljivih industrijskih standarda dozvoljavaju VSS da postave ciljeve, izmere stepen njihovog ostvarenja (rezultate) i ukoliko je neophodno, ustanove program dostizanja ciljeva po fazama. Naredne generacije rukovodilaca u VSS moraće sve više da koriste naučne metode predviđanja u funkciji planiranja angažovanja tokom vanrednih situacija i katastrofa (zemljotresa, poplava tehničko-tehnoloških udesa i dr.), jer će se suočavati sa novim izazovima, koji su uzrokovani pojavama o kojima nemaju dovoljno iskustva (na primer, upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje i dr.). Ključne reči: vatrogasno-spasilačka služba, statistika, požari, havarije, eksplozije. Socio-economic conditions, especially the general economic crisis and its further course, are the most significant cause of further development and improvement of fire and rescue services, especially in large cities. The analysis of statistical data in the paper speaks in favor of the fact that fire and rescue units are being developed and equipped, primarily following the development of cities, the increase in the number of inhabitants and the general progress of science and technology. Continuous self-examination together with the recognition of acceptable industry standards allow fire and rescue units to set goals, measure the degree of their achievement (results) and, if necessary, establish a program for achieving goals in stages. The next generations of managers in fire and rescue units will increasingly have to use scientific forecasting methods in the function of planning engagements during emergencies and disasters (earthquakes, floods of technical and technological accidents, etc.), because they will face new challenges caused by phenomena. about which they do not have enough experience (for example, using weapons of mass destruction, etc.). Keywords: fire and rescue service, statistics, fires, accidents, explosions.

Referenca – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2011). Stanje i novi izazazovi vatrogasno – spasilačkih službi u svetu. Zbornik radova, Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, 2011. godina, 95-109.

Suprotstavljanje savremenom terorizmu kao doprinos zaštiti ljudske bezbednosti u Republici Srbiji (Fighting contemporary terrorism as a contribution to the protection of human security in the Republik of Serbia)

The scientific and professional literature, politics and the media are preoccupied with the problem of terrorism and consequences of its manifestations upon security of the state in the past few decades. With the development of the concept of human security focus of interest has been shifted to the consequences that this security threat pose to the man and his values. The aim of this paper is to show that the state is only indirectly affected by the consequences of terrorism through its constituent component – population. For that reason, fighting contemporary terrorism must be in order to protect human security. This paper will discuss how the human component is positioned in the National Security Strategy, since it is a major strategic documents in Serbia. It will then consider whether terrorism construe an increasing threat to traditional state’s values such as state sovereignty and territorial integrity, or to its human component. Finally, we will point out how the fight against terrorism contributes to the protection of human security, ie. that of its segment, which is threatened by the terrorist activity. Keywords: human security, national security, state, terrorism, strategy. Naučna i stručna literatura, politika i mediji okupirani su posled-njih nekoliko decenija problemom terorizma i posledicama njegovih manife-stacija na bezbednost država. Razvojem koncepta ljudske bezbednosti fokus interesovanja pomera se ka posledicama koje ova savremena bezbednosna pretnja ostavlja na čoveka i njegove vrednosti. U radu ćemo ukazati na to da je država tek indirektno ugrožena posledicama terorizma, i to kroz ugro-žavanje njene konstitutivne komponente – stanovništva. Iz tog razloga, i suprotstavljanje savremenom terorizmu mora biti u funkciji zaštite ljudske bezbednosti. U radu će se razmatrati kako je ljudska komponenta pozici-onirana u Strategiji nacionalne bezbednosti, s obzirom na to da se radi o najvažnijem strateškom dokumentu naše zemlje. Zatim će se razmatrati da li terorizam predstavlja veću pretnju tradicionalnim državnim vrednostima kao što su teritorijalni integritet i suverenitet, ili pak njenoj ljudskoj kom-ponenti. Najzad, ukazaćemo na koji način borba protiv terorizma doprinosi zaštiti bezbednosti ljudi, tj. onom njenom segmentu koji se ugrožava kroz terorističku aktivnost. Ključne reči: ljudska bezbednost, nacionalna bezbednost, država, terorizam, strategija Uvod Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka savremene države jeste nalaženje najadekvatni-jih načina suprotstavljanja terorizmu. Bez obzira na to koliko je ekonomski sta-bilna ili kolika je njena vojna moć, nijedna država nije pošteđena pretnje i straha od terorizma koji je danas postao moćno oružje onih koji su nemoćni da drugim, legitimnim sredstvima ostvare političke ciljeve. Najvažnija doktrinarna i strateška dokumenta država postavljaju terorizam na sam vrh agende bezbednosnih pretnji zbog svoje nepredvidivosti i teških posledica koje ostavlja za sobom. Takva pozici-ja ukazuje nam da su države posebno ranjive na terorizam, a situacija je dodatno usložena već decenijama postojećim problemom određenja pojma terorizma, čije bi rešavanje uveliko olakšalo borbu protiv terorizma pravnim sredstvima.

Referenca – Popović, M., Cvetković, V. (2013). Suprostavljanje savremenom terorizmu kao doprinos zaštiti ljudske bezbednosti u Republici Srbiji. Zbornik radova, Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, 169-177.

Jačanje sistema integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Srbiji: DISARIMES (Strengthening integrated disaster risk management system in Serbia: DISARIMES)

Teritorija Srbije je osetljiva na različite vrste prirodnih opasnosti i rizik nije podjednak na celoj teritoriji; on varira u zavisnosti od vrste opasnosti i očekivanog potencijala štete. Seizmičke opasnosti, klizišta, odroni, poplave, bujične poplave, prekomerna erozija, suše i šumski požari su neke od značajnih prirodnih opasnosti na teritoriji Srbije; ovi prirodni procesi mogu direktno i indirektno da ugroze životnu sredinu, stanovništvo i materijalna dobra. Trenutno stanje zaštite od prirodnih katastrofa na teritoriji Srbije karakteriše nepotpunost i nedostupnost informacija o rizicima od mogućih prirodnih katastrofa, kao i o posledicama koje mogu da izazovu, uz nedovoljno „učešće javnosti“. Ističe se nedovoljni kapacitet lokalnih vlasti, profesionalnih službi i konsultanata za savremeni pristup upravljanju rizikom od katastrofe. Trenutnu situaciju karakteriše i nepostojanje jedinstvene baze podataka o prostornom rasporedu određenih prirodnih katastrofa, tj. određivanje potencijalno kritičnih zona (poplave, klizišta, bujice itd.). Stanje ukupnog sistema zaštite od prirodnih katastrofa na teritoriji Srbije nije zadovoljavajuće, posebno u odnosu na prostorne aspekte upravljanja rizikom. Uprkos stalnom porastu broja, učestalosti i intenziteta prirodnih katastrofa, Republika Srbija nije sprovela sveobuhvatnu naučnu studiju koja bi identifikovala slabosti i mogućnosti za unapređenje sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa. S tim u vezi, glavni cilj projekta je „Jačanje integrisanog sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa u Srbiji – DISARIMES“. Rezultati projekta omogućiće jačanje sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa kroz istraživanje, razvoj i primenu inovativnih rešenja u fazama pripreme (edukacija i obučavanje lokalnog stanovništva itd.), ublažavanja, reagovanja, sanacije i nakon katastrofe. Naučni značaj planiranog istraživanja ogleda se u stvaranju mogućnosti za unapređenje teorijskog i empirijskog znanja u naučnoj oblasti upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa, ali i njihovoj primeni u praksi, imajući u vidu da je to relativno mlada naučna disciplina u Srbiji. Rezultati projektnog istraživanja olakšaće donosiocima odluka u Srbiji razumevanje nedostataka sistema, ali i pružiće inovativne mogućnosti za poboljšanje njihovog funkcionisanja u uslovima sve češćih i ozbiljnijih katastrofa. Osnivanjem naučnog i stručnog društva u oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa stvoriće se održivi i neophodni uslovi za prenos i unapređenje znanja i iskustava od značaja za podizanje nivoa operativnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije u slučaju katastrofe. In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia – DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2021). Jačanje sistema integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Srbiji: DISARIMES. Zbornik Radova – Taktika zaštite i Spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd.

Konceptualne osnove i dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe (Conceptual bases of resilience to disasters)

Predmet rada predstavlja naučna deskripcija konceptualnih osnova otpornosti na katastrofe. Na jedan vešt i sistematičan način, autori opisuju fenomenološke dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe. Pored toga, daje se pregled najznačajnijih karakteristika različitih dimenzija otpornosti kao što su individualna, društvena, ekonomska i institucionalna otpornost. Rukovodeći se značajem ispitivanja nivoa ostvarene otpornosti na katastrofe, daje se pregled najznačajnijih indikatora merenja otpornosti na katastrofe. Implikacije preglednog rada ogledaju se u dodatnom unapređivanju teorijskih konstrukata različitih segmenata koncepta otpornosti na katastrofe koji se vrlo često primenjuje u studijama katastrofa. The subject of this paper is the scientific description of the conceptual basis of disaster resistance. In a skilful and systematic way, the authors describe the phenomenological dimensions of disaster resistance. In addition, an overview of the most important characteristics of different dimensions of resilience such as individual, social, economic and institutional resilience is given. Guided by the importance of testing the level of achieved disaster resistance, an overview of the most important indicators for measuring disaster resistance is given. The implications of the review paper are reflected in the further improvement of the theoretical constructs of different segments of the disaster resilience concept that is very often applied in disaster studies.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. , Bošković, N. (2021). Konceptualne osnove i dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe. Zbornik Radova – Taktika zaštite i Spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd.

Mogućnosti zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe (Possibilities of misuse of chemical weapons for terrorist purposes)

Hemijsko oružje spada u red najdestruktivnijih oružja za masovno uništavanje, o čemu svedoče posledice, nepredvidlјivost i raznovrsnost delovanja. Istorijski posmatrano, oduvek je tretirano kao nečasno sredstvo za vođenje borbe, i kao takvo zabranjivano. Međutim, uprkos svim zabranama, terorističke grupe svakodnevno pokušavaju da iznađu modalitete nabavke i njegove upotrebe. Osnovne karakteristike i skriveni period delovanja daju veliku prednost hemijskom oružju u odnosu na konvencionalna oružja, prilikom donošenja odluke, od strane terorističkih grupa, o oružju kojim će se izvršiti teroristički akt. Upotreba hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe mogla bi ozbilјno uzdrmati i ugroziti nacionalnu bezbednost jedne države. Poznavanje osnovnih karakteristika ovog oružja je od krucijalne važnosti za preduzimanje mera zaštite života i zdravlјa lјudi, i životne sredine. U radu se definiše pojam hemijskog oružja s posebnim osvrtom na istorijat njegove upotrebe u ratu i miru. Razmatraju se sve postojeće klasifikacije hemijskog oružja, s posebnim fokusom na njegove najpoznatije predstavnike. Na kraju, opisuju se osnovne karakteristike i načini njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Chemical weapons is one of the most destructive weapons of mass destruction, as evidenced by the consequences, unpredictability and diversity of ac- tivity. Historically speaking, have always been treated as a dishonest means to conduct the struggle, and as such forbidden. However, despite all the restrictions, terrorist groups every day trying to find modalities of procurement and its use. Main features and hidden action period, a great attention to chemical weapons compared to conventional weapons, in deciding, by teroristic groups on weapons that would make an act of terrorism. The use of chemical weapons for terrorist purposes could seriously undermine and jeopardize the national security of a state. Knowing the basic characteristics of the weapon is crucial to take measures to protect life and health, and environment. Considering the chemical structure, toxicity, characteristics and actual use of chemical weapons, it is impossible to make a universal distribution that covers all their essential properties. This paper defines the concept of chemical weapons with special emphasis on the history of its use in war and peace. It discusses the classification of all existing chemical weapons, with particular focus on its most famous representatives. Finally, we des ribe the main characteristics and methods of its use for terrorist purposes.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Popović, M., Sadiah, A. (2014). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Zbornik radova, Suprotstavljanje savremenom organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd, 341-357.

Integrated natural disasters management (Integrisano upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama)

Ozbilјnija sistematska proučavanja prirodnih katastrofa i mogućnosti upravlјanja njihovim posledicama stara su oko pola veka, što i nije začuđujuće, imajući u vidu da su društvene nauke relativno mlade. Istraživači prirodnih katastrofa ukazuju da dobro definisan i jasan model upravlјanja predstavlјa krucijalan element suočavanja sa posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Pri tome, kada se govori o upravlјanju, najpre se misli o dobro utemelјenom formalnom sistemu, odnosno modelu, koji će jasno definisati svaku fazu u takvom procesu. Pregledom odgovarajuće stručne literature, mogu se izdvojiti različiti modeli upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama kao što su: logički, integrisani, uzročni i ostali. Svakako, imajući u vidu sveobuhvatne analize efikasnosti sistema upravlјanja, integrisani pristup upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama predstavlјa vodeći model u državama širom sveta. Radi se o sveobuhvatnom i integrisanom pristupu koji obuhvata sve vrste prirodnih katastrofa (biosferske, litosferske, atmosferske, hidrosferske) i faze (priprema, ublažavanje, odgovor i oporavak) upravlјanja. Dakle, to je iterativan proces donošenja odluka u vezi sa prevencijom, odgovorom i oporavkom od prirodnih katastrofa. Kao takav obezbeđuje šansu zajednicama pogođenim katastrofama da uravnoteže različite potrebe za zaštitu života, imovine i životne sredine, kao i da razmotre način na koji njihove kumulativne akcije mogu doprineti dugoročnijoj održivosti pogođenog područja. Slobodno se može reći da su vodeći principi takvog procesa: sistematski pristup, partnerstvo, neizvesnost, geografski fokus, oslanjanje na nauke i pouzdane podatke. Imajući u vidu značajnost implementacije modela integrisanog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama u nacionalne sisteme zaštite i spasavanja, predmet rada predstavlјa ispitivanje evolucije, strukture, karakteristika i funkcionisanja integrisanog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama. Takođe, poseban osvrt se pridaje odnosu između tradicionalnog i savremenog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama. More serious systematic studies of natural disaster management capabilities and their consequences are about half a century, which is not surprising, given that social science is relatively young. Researchers of natural disasters indicate that well-deﬁned and clear governance model is a crucial element of dealing with the consequences of natural disasters. In fact, when it speaking about of management, ﬁrst think of a well-established formal system, or model, that will clearly deﬁne each stage in such a process. A review of the relevant scientiﬁc literature, we can distinguish diﬀerent models of natural disasters such as logical, integrated, causal and others. Certainly, given the comprehensive analysis of the eﬀectiveness of management, an integrated approach to the management of natural disasters is a leading model in countries around the world. It is a comprehensive and integrated approach that encompasses all types of natural disasters and phases (preparation, mitigation, response and recovery) management. So, it is an iterative process of decision-making in relation to the prevention, response and recovery from natural disasters. As such, it provides a chance for communities aﬀected by disasters to balance the diﬀerent needs for the protection of life, property and the environment, and to consider ways in which their cumulative actions may contribute to the longer term sustainability of the aﬀected areas. It can be said that the guiding principles of this process: a systematic approach, partnership, uncertainty, geographic focus, relying on science and reliable data. Bearing in mind the importance of implementation models of integrated management of natural disasters in the national system of protection and rescue work is the subject of questioning evolution, structure, characteristics and functioning of the integrated management of natural disasters. In addition, special emphasis is given to the relationship between the traditional and the modern management of natural disasters.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Petrović, D. (2015). Integrisano upravljanje prirodnim katastrofama. Zbornik radova, Razvoj institucionalnih kapaciteta, standarda i procedura za suprotstavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu u uslovima međunarodnih integracija, 291-323.

Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of climate disasters)

Climate disasters, which include drought, extreme temperatures and wildfires, every day more and more jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the field of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Consequently, research has been undertaken in order to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of climate disasters in the world in geographic space period in 1900. till 2013. Given that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about climate disasters is a statistical method. In addition, a statistical study was conducted so as to take the first step, the raw data of all natural disasters (25,552) in mind, Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution analyzed the total number and consequences of climate disasters by continent. By the same token, within the temporal analysis examined the distribution of the total number and consequences of climatic disasters on an annual, monthly and daily. Statistical analysis of the results clearly indicate that the number of climate disasters on the rise, with their recorded maximum in the period since 2000. till 2013.. Then, based on the results it is concluded that most of the drought occurred in Africa, extreme temperatures in Europe and the forest fires in America. In contrast, the least drought and extreme temperatures occurred in Oceania, and forest fires in Africa. It can not be said that an international database on natural disasters included absolutely everything that happens in the world, given that it was created thanks to the submitted national reports on natural disasters in the period in 1900. till 2013. So the question that arises is whether the most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the world’s geographic space, the results are a good argument to launch a serious reform of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens on the severity of the consequences of climatic disasters on people, the environment and their property. In our literature there is no scientific papers on this approach the analysis of climatic disasters. These results are original, bearing in mind the scientific method used to analyze the data obtained from the Center for Research of the Epidemiology of Disaster in Brussels. Klimatske katastrofe u koje spadaju suše, ekstremne tempe-rature i šumski požari, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbed-nost lјudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolјe spoznati. Shodno tome, istraživanje je preduzeto sa cilјem utvrđivanja geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa u svetskom geoprostoru u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučlјiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaklјučaka o klimatskim katastro-fama jeste statistička metoda. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama (25.552) u vidu ,,Excel” fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okvi-ru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice klimatskih katastrofa po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica klimatskih katastrofa na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. Statistički rezultati analize nedvosmisleno ukazuju da je broj klimatskih katastrofa u porastu, sa svojim zabeleženim maksimumom u perio-du od 2000. do 2013. godine. Zatim, na osnovu rezultata se zaklјučuje da se najveći broj suša dogodio u Africi, ekstremnih temperatura u Evropi i šumskih požara u Americi. Suprotno tome, najmanje suša i ekstremnih temperatura dogodilo se u Okeaniji, a šumskih požara u Africi. Ne može se reći da je međunarodna baza podataka o prirodnim katastrofama obuhvatila apsolutno sve događaje u svetu, imajući u vidu da je na-stala zahvalјujući dostavlјenim nacionalnim izveštajima o prirodnim katastrofama u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Dakle, pitanje koje se nameće je da li je većina nerazvijenih država dostavila svoje izveštaje. Imajući u vidu trend porasta broja i ozbilјnosti prirodnih katastrofa u svetskom geoprostoru, rezultati istraživanja predstavlјaju dobar argument u pokretanju ozbilјnih reformi sistema zaštite i spasavanja od prirodnih katastrofa u državama širom sveta. Rezultati istraživanja utiču na podizanje nivoa svesti kod građana o ozbilјnosti posledica klimatskih katastrofa po lјude, životnu sredinu i njihovu imovinu. U domaćoj literaturi ne postoje naučni radovi koji na ovaj način pristupaju analizi klimatskih katastrofa. Dobijeni rezultati su originalni imajući u vidu korišćeni naučni metod za analizu podataka dobijenih iz Centra za istraživanje katastrofa u Briselu.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014) Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa. Zbornik radova, Tranzicija i ekonomski kriminal II, tematski zbornik radova, 163-183.

The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters (Uticaj klimatskih promena na rizik od prirodnih katastrofa)

Climate changes caused by uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases, increasingly, directly or indirectly threaten people and their material goods. In addition, the effects of the climate changes (increasing in the average temperature of the biosphere, the rising of the sea levels, melting glaciers, etc.), undoubtedly contribute to an increased risk of natural disasters. Moreover, climate changes have an impact on the gradual increase of their frequency, intensity and consequences. Around the world, numerous examples of natural disasters testify about the great and inevitable impact of the global warming on the change of the characteristics of floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. It is therefore important to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes on all the aspects of natural disasters. The article explicitly and implicitly explains the implications of climate changes on the emergence, intensity and frequency of natural disasters. In addition, it generally perceives the phenomenological structures of climate changes and natural disasters in order to analyze their mutual causality. Klimatske promene izazvane nekontrolisanom emisijom gasova sa efektom staklene bašte sve više direktno ili indirektno ugrožavaju ljude i njihova materijalna dobra. Pored toga, efekti klimatskih promena (porast prosečne temperature biosfere, porast nivoa mora, topljenje glečera itd.), nesumnjivo doprinose povećanom riziku od prirodnih katastrofa. Štaviše, klimatske promene utiču na postepeno povećanje njihove učestalosti, intenziteta i posledica. Širom sveta brojni primeri prirodnih katastrofa svedoče o velikom i neizbežnom uticaju globalnog zagrevanja na promenu karakteristika poplava, suša, uragana itd. Stoga je važno analizirati direktne i indirektne uticaje klimatskih promena na svi aspekti prirodnih katastrofa. Članak eksplicitno i implicitno objašnjava implikacije klimatskih promena na pojavu, intenzitet i učestalost prirodnih katastrofa. Pored toga, generalno uočava fenomenološke strukture klimatskih promena i prirodnih katastrofa kako bi analizirao njihovu međusobnu uzročnost.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2013). The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters. International yearbook of the Faculty of security (pp. 51-62). Skopje: Faculty of security.

Uloga policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The role of police in natural disasters)

Policija predstavlja jednu od najznačajnijih interventno-spasilačkih službi koja ima krucijalnu ulogu u prirodnim katastrofama. Svakako, karakteristike i obim njene uloge zavise od mnogobrojnih faktora kao što su vrsta, obim, intenzitet, faza i posledice prirodne katastrofe, stepen obučenosti policijskih službenika, postojanje planova i resursa za postupanje policije u takvim situacijama, itd. Ipak, o ulozi policije u prirodnim katastrofama postoji veoma oskudna literatura, pa se na neki način olako može zaklјučiti da je njena uloga i značaj u takvim situacijama donekle i marginalizovana. Upravo stoga, autor u radu analizira zadatke i organizaciju policije u različitim fazama nastajanja prirodne katastrofe. Na sveobuhvatan način, izlaže se teorijski model odgovora na prirodne katastrofe od strane policije, koji opisuje prioritete stanovnika pogođene zajednice sa ciljem identifikacije najoptimalnije strategije policijskog reagovanja u svakoj od tih faza katastrofe. Kao rezultat istraživanja, u radu se iznose jasne smernice i preporuke za unapređenje rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama. The police are one of the most important intervention and rescue services, which has a crucial role in natural disasters. Certainly, the characteristics and scope of its role depend on many factors such as the type, scope, intensity, phase and consequences of the natural disaster, the level of training of police officers, the existence of plans and resources for police action in such situations, etc. However, there is very little literature on the role of the police in natural disasters, so in a way it can be easily concluded that its role and significance in such situations is somewhat marginalized. Precisely for this reason, the author analyzes the tasks and organization of the police in different phases of a natural disaster. In a comprehensive way, a theoretical model of police response to natural disasters is presented, which describes the priorities of the residents of the affected community with the aim of identifying the most optimal police response strategy in each of these disaster phases. As a result of the research, the paper presents clear guidelines and recommendations for improving the work of the police in natural disasters.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Zbornik radova, Elementarne nepogode i vanredne situacije. Institut za uporedno pravo i Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd, 215-243.

Activities of the Sector for Emergency Situations on the harmonization of the policy of the Republic of Serbia with the EU security policy in the field of civil protection (Aktivnosti Sektora za vanredne situacije na usklađivanju politike Republike Srbije sa bezbednosnom politikom EU u oblasti civilne zaštite)

This paper explains the way of cooperation and association in the field of emergency management in the European Union (EU). Natural and technical disasters and emergencies are not limited by national boundaries or beyond the capabilities of the adequate response of affected countries, and the EU is forced to build and develop capacities in those areas of common security. The Republic of Serbia as a potential candidate country for EU membership, build up its own system of protection and rescue in emergency situations, which in most elements is compatible with the EU system. Sector for Emergency Management of the Ministry of Interior is the most important carrier of construction, harmonization, and coordination of the system in the Republic of Serbia (RS), as well as a system of civil protection and humanitarian assistance of the EU. Ovaj rad objašnjava način saradnje i udruživanja u oblasti upravljanja vanrednim situacijama u Evropskoj uniji (EU). Prirodne i tehničke katastrofe i vanredne situacije nisu ograničene nacionalnim granicama niti prevazilaze mogućnosti adekvatnog odgovora pogođenih zemalja, a EU je prisiljena da gradi i razvija kapacitete u onim oblastima zajedničke bezbednosti. Republika Srbija kao potencijalni kandidat za članstvo u EU izgrađuje svoj sistem zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, koji je u većini elemenata kompatibilan sa sistemom EU. Sektor za vanredne situacije Ministarstva unutrašnjih poslova, najvažniji je nosilac izgradnje, usklađivanja i koordinacije sistema u Republici Srbiji (RS), kao i sistema civilne zaštite i humanitarne pomoći EU.

Referenca – Mlađan, D., Marić, P., Baras, I., Cvetković V. (2011). Aktivnosti Sektora za vanredne situacije na usklađivanju politike Republike Srbije sa bezbednosnom politikom EU u oblasti civilne zaštite. Zbornik radova, Usklađivanje spoljne politike Republike Srbije sa zajedničkom spoljnom i bezbednosnom politikom Evropske unije. Instutut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 479 – 492.

Climate Change as a Modern Security Threat (Klimatske promene kao savremena bezbednosna pretnja)

Across the Earth, in everyday professional and scientific debates, climate changes are referred as a multidimensional global threat that represent a multiplier of various tensions over access to basic life resources which wane. Thus, in this paper we analyze the phenomenology of climate change that is brought into direct/indirect relationship with endangering the safety of human, material and cultural resources and the environment at the national and global levels. The paper also analyzes the impacts of climate change on increasing disaster risk, that every day increasingly destructive endangers the safety of people both by work and by nature of created value. At the end of the paper, the effects of climate change on water resources are presented. In conclusion, the authors point out that climate change is a reality that presents a significant security risk and a challenge, which have caused: the reduction of energy access, food availability, increased frequency and intensity of catastrophic natural disasters, population displacement, increasing public health problems, and lack of health safe drinking water. In addition, they actualize the idea that climate change poses a serious threat to national security and defense of the country, which was matter dealt mostly by activists and environmental experts in the field. However, lately climate change is beginning to be a subject of interest of politicians and security officials around the world. Širom Zemlje, u svakodnevnim stručnim i naučnim raspravama, klimatske promene se nazivaju višedimenzionalnom globalnom pretnjom koja predstavlja multiplikator različitih napetosti zbog pristupa osnovnim životnim resursima koji nestaju. Dakle, u ovom radu analiziramo fenomenologiju klimatskih promena koja se dovodi u direktni / indirektni odnos sa ugrožavanjem sigurnosti ljudskih, materijalnih i kulturnih resursa i životne sredine na nacionalnom i globalnom nivou. U radu se takođe analiziraju uticaji klimatskih promena na rastući rizik od katastrofe, koji svakim danom sve destruktivnije ugrožava sigurnost ljudi kako radom, tako i prirodom stvorene vrednosti. Na kraju rada prikazani su efekti klimatskih promena na vodene resurse. U zaključku autori ističu da su klimatske promene stvarnost koja predstavlja značajan bezbednosni rizik i izazov koji su prouzrokovali: smanjenje pristupa energiji, dostupnosti hrane, povećanu učestalost i intenzitet katastrofalnih prirodnih katastrofa, raseljavanje stanovništva, povećanje javne zdravstveni problemi i nedostatak zdrave vode za piće. Pored toga, oni aktuelizuju ideju da klimatske promene predstavljaju ozbiljnu pretnju nacionalnoj bezbednosti i odbrani zemlje, čime su se uglavnom bavili aktivisti i stručnjaci za zaštitu životne sredine na terenu. Međutim, u poslednje vreme klimatske promene počinju da budu predmet interesa političara i bezbednosnih zvaničnika širom sveta.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Milojković, B., Mlađan, D. (2013). Climate Change as a Modern Security Threat. International Conference Climate change Impacts on Water Resources, 17-18 October 2013, Belgrade, Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, 168-174.

Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija kao prirodnih katastrofa (Geospatial and temporal distribution of tsunami as natural disasters)

Predmet istraživanja predstavlja utvrёivanja geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija u svetskom geoprostoru u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučljiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaključaka o cunamiju jeste statistička metoda. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobraёeni podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama (25.552) u vidu ,,Excel‖ fajla iz meёunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice cunamija po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica cunamija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. The subject of the research is to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of tsunamis in the world geospace in the period from 1900 to 2013. Given that it is a mass phenomenon consisting of a multitude of units, the most recommended scientific method for drawing conclusions about a tsunami is the statistical method. In doing so, only the statistical survey was conducted in such a way that in the first step, raw data on all natural disasters (25,552) were taken in the form of an “Excel” file from the International Disaster Database (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical data processing SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution, the total number and consequences of tsunamis by continents were analyzed. According to the same principle, within the time analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of tsunamis on an annual, monthly and daily level was considered.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Janković, B., & Banović, B. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija kao prirodnih katastrofa. Četvrta međunarodna naučna konferencija ,,Bezbednosni inženjering, požar, životna sredina, radna okolina, integrisani rizici“ i Četrnaesta međunarodna konferencija zaštita od požara i eksplozija, 02-03. oktobar 2014. Novi Sad: Visoka tehnička škola strukovnih studija u Novom Sadu, Tehnički univerzitet u Zvolenu i Fakultet tehničkih nauka, Departman za građevinarstvo i geodeziju, str. 352-361.

Upravljanje u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim upotrebom opasnih materija (Management in terrorist emergencies caused by the use of hazardous substances)

Opasne materije su neminovni pratilac savremenog vremena i njihova raznovrsnost posebno dolazi do izražaja kada se analiziraju mogućnosti njihove terorističke upotrebe čime bi se izazvala ozbiljna vanredna situacija. Naravno, radioaktivne, eksplozivne, zapaljive, toksične materije i biološki agensi, po svojoj samoj prirodi predstavljaju opasne materije koje se mogu na jednostavan način upotrebiti u takve svrhe. Efikasno otklanjanje nastalih posledica u takvim vanrednim situacijama u velikoj meri zavisi od međusobne saradnje i koordinacije interventno-spasilačkih službi kao i podrške šire zajednice. Generalno posmatrano, ne postoji interventno-spasilačka služba koja može samostalno sa isključivo sopstvenim kapacitetima i resursima pružiti adekvatan odgovor. Pri tome, potrebno je uspostaviti efikasnu organizaciju rada, tj. sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama koji će adekvatno odgovoriti svim potrebama na licu mesta. Pri tome, u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama postojaće potreba za uspostavljanjem strateškog, taktičkog i operativnog nivoa organizacije rada. U radu se neće analizirati strateški, već će se akcenat staviti na taktički i operativni nivo organizacije rada interventno-spasilačkih službi. Upravo stoga, autor u radu opisuje organizaciju i međusobnu koordinaciju rada interventno spasilačkih službi, poštujući proceduru od ,,8 koraka“: 1. upravljanje i kontrolisanje područja; 2. identifikacija problema; 3. evaluacija opasnosti i rizika; 4. selekcija lične zaštitne odeće i opreme; 5. kontrola protoka informacija i koordiniranje resursa; 6. sprovođenje prioritetnih akcija; 7. dekontaminiranje i čišćenje terena; i 8. okončanje vanredne situacije. Najzad, u radu se ukazuje i na potencijalne opasnosti po život i zdravlje pripadnika službi u postupku otklanjanja nastalih posledica, sa posebnim osvrtom na mere zaštite. Dangerous substances are an inevitable companion of modern times and their diversity is especially evident when analyzing the possibilities of their terrorist use, which would cause a serious emergency situation. Of course, radioactive, explosive, flammable, toxic substances and biological agents, by their very nature, are dangerous substances that can be easily used for such purposes. Effective elimination of the consequences in such emergencies largely depends on cooperation and coordination of intervention and rescue services, as well as the support of the wider community. Generally speaking, no intervention and rescue service can independently and exclusively with its capacities and resources provide an adequate response. At the same time, it is necessary to establish an efficient organization of work, ie. an emergency management system that will adequately respond to all needs on the spot. At the same time, in terrorist emergencies, there will be a need to establish a strategic, tactical, and operational level of work organization. The paper will not analyze strategically but will emphasize the tactical and operational level of organization of the work of intervention and rescue services. Precisely for this reason, the author describes the organization and mutual coordination of the work of emergency rescue services, respecting the procedure of “8 steps”: 1. management and control of the area; 2. problem identification; 3. hazard and risk evaluation; 4. selection of personal protective clothing and equipment; 5. control of information flow and coordination of resources; 6. implementation of priority actions; 7. decontamination and cleaning of the terrain; and 8. end of the emergency. Finally, the paper points out the potential dangers to the life and health of members of the service in the process of eliminating the consequences, with special reference to protection measures.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Upravljanje u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim upotrebom opasnih materija. Naučna konferencija: sigurnost urbanih sredina. Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, Sarajevo, 63-72.

Mogućnosti zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe i krivičnopravna zaštita (Possible abuse of nuclear weapons in terrorist activity and criminal protection)

Svet se našao pod uticajem energije razorne moći, zastarele i prljave tehnologije, trke u naoružanju, ratnih dejstava i terorističkih aktivnosti. Pri tome, u svetu postoji velike količina nuklearnog oružja različite snage i moći, koje se i dalje gomila i usavršava uz stalno proširenje zemalja koje to oružje poseduju. Terorističke grupe mogu napasti objekte i institucije za proizvodnju nuklearne energije, kao i samo nuklearno oružje pri proizvodnji, transportu i skladištenju. Imajući u vidu posledice i destruktivnost, nuklearno oružje je potencijalno najsmrtonosnije oružje koje terorističke grupe mogu iskoristiti u sprovođenju nasilja, radi ostvarivanja ciljeva. Jedno od najznačajnijih sredstava u zaštiti od nuklearnog oružja je pravno regulisanje, kako na globalnom, tako i na nacionalnom nivou. U ovom radu autori razmatraju dve grupe pitanja. U prvom delu je obrađen pojam i karakteristike nuklearnog oružja, kao i pretpostavke njegove zloupotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Drugi deo rada posvećen je pravnom regulisanju i krivičnopravnoj zaštiti od zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe.The world has found itself under the influence of the energy of destructive power, outdated and dirty technology, arms races, warfare and terrorist activities. At the same time, there is a large amount of nuclear weapons of various strengths and powers in the world, which are still accumulating and improving with the constant expansion of the countries that possess those weapons. Terrorist groups can attack facilities and institutions for the production of nuclear energy, as well as nuclear weapons only during production, transport and storage. Given the consequences and destructiveness, nuclear weapons are potentially the deadliest weapons that terrorist groups can use to carry out violence, in order to achieve their goals. One of the most important means of protection against nuclear weapons is legal regulation, both globally and nationally. In this paper, the authors consider two groups of questions. The first part deals with the concept and characteristics of nuclear weapons, as well as the assumptions of their misuse for terrorist purposes. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the legal regulation and criminal protection against the misuse of nuclear weapons for terrorist purposes.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Mlađović, I. (2015). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe i krivično pravna zaštita. Osmi međunarodni naučni skup „Dani bezbjednosti“ na temu: Subjekti sistema bezbjednosti u ostvarivanju bezbjednosne funkcije države, Fakultet za bezbjednost i zaštitu, Banja Luka 12. jun 2015, 397-407.

Vanredne situacije izazvane upotrebom radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe (Emergency situations caused by use of the radiological weapons for terrorist purposes)

Savremeni terorizam koga karakteriše upotreba oružja za masovno uništavanje predstavlja jedan od najozbiljnijih scenarija ugrožavanja bezbednosti građana. Teroristima na raspolaganju stoji različit izbor oružja za masovno uništavanje koje se razlikuje po svojim karakteristikama i načinima njegove primene. Zbog povećane pretnje upotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, krajem XX veka je uvršćeno u oružje za masovno uništavanje iako je njegova upotreba razmatrana još davne 1941. godine. Polazeći od mogućnosti zloupotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, autori u radu elaboriraju pojam i vrste radiološkog oružja, sa posebnim osvrtom na njegovu primenu u prošlosti. Pored toga, analiziraju se i opisuju karakteristike i načini njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Modern terrorism, characterized by the use of weapons of mass destruction, is one of the most serious scenarios for endangering the security of citizens. Terrorists have at their disposal a different choice of weapons of mass destruction, which differ in their characteristics and ways of their application. Due to the increased threat of the use of radiological weapons for terrorist purposes, at the end of the 20th century it was included in weapons of mass destruction, although its use was considered as far back as 1941. Starting from the possibility of misuse of radiological weapons for terrorist purposes, the authors elaborate the concept and types of radiological weapons, with special reference to its use in the past. In addition, the characteristics and ways of its use for terrorist purposes are analyzed and described.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Vanredne situacije izazvane upotrebom radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 32-38.

The impact of climate change on protection and conservation of biodiversity as a precondition of environmental security in Serbia (Uticaj klimatskih promena na zaštitu i očuvanje biodiverziteta kao preduslova ekološke bezbednosti u Srbiji)

The influence of climate change on biodiversity as a precondition of environmental security is the subject of an increasing number of scientific and expert analyzes around the world. Due to the lack of information on the related effects of climate change and immediate empirical evidences, there may be neglect of the application of adequate measures to mitigate the potentially adverse impact of climate on the maintenance, growth, reproduction and distribution of certain species which can affect the creation of unwanted implication regarding to ecological security. Bearing in mind the significant number of endemic plant and animal species in the territory of the Republic of Serbia, its unique responsibility with regard to the preservation of biodiversity can not be denied. The paper performed a secondary analysis of the key documents and reports that Serbia, as a member state of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, and the signatory country to the Paris Agreement, is obliged to continuously submit to the UNFCCC Secretariat. According to the First National Communication of the Republic of Serbia, the effects of climate change on biodiversity and natural ecosystems are observed that indicate phenological changes, changes in morphology, physiology and species behavior, habitat loss, as well as the emergence of new habitats, changes in the number and distribution of species etc. Secondary analysis of the report on measures of mitigation and adaptation to climate change was carried out with a special focus on the situation, vulnerability and perspectives of biodiversity on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. Uticaj klimatskih promena na biološku raznovrsnost, kao osnovnog preduslova ekološke bezbednosti, predmet je sve većeg broja naučnih i stručnih analiza širom sveta. Usled nedostatka informacija o pratećim uticajima promena klime i neposrednih empirijskih dokaza, može doći do zanemarivanja primene adekvatnih mera za ublažavanje potencijalno štetnog uticaja klime na održavanje, rast, razmnožavanje i rasprostranjenost pojedinih vrsta što može uticati na stvaranje neželjenih implikacija po ekološku bezbednost. Imajući u vidu značajan broj endemičnih biljnih i životinjskih vrsta na području Republike Srbije, ne može se osporiti njena osobena odgovornost u pogledu očuvanja biodiverziteta. U radu je izvršena sekundarna analiza ključnih dokumenta i izveštaja koje Srbija, kao država članica Okvirne konvencije Ujedinjenih Nacija o promeni klime (UNFCCC) i Kjoto protokola, i zemlja potpisnica Sporazuma iz Pariza (od 2017. godine), ima obavezu da kontinualno podnosi Sekretarijatu UNFCCC-a. Prema Prvoj nacionalnoj komunikaciji Republike Srbije uočeni su efekti klimatskih promena na biodiverzitet i prirodne ekosisteme koji ukazuju da može doći do: fenoloških, morfoloških i fizioloških promena, promena u ponašanju vrsta, gubitka staništa, pojave novih staništa, kao i promena u broju, distribuciji vrsta što može pogoršati stanje ekološke bezbednosti. Sekundarna analiza izveštaja o merama mitigacije i adaptacije na klimatske promene izvršena je sa posebnim osvrtom na stanje, ugroženost i perspektive biodiverziteta na području Republike Srbije.

Referenca – Filipović, M., Cvetković, V., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). Uticaj klimatskih promena na zaštitu i očuvanje biodiverziteta kao preduslova ekološke bezbednosti u Srbiji. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 50-57.

Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study (Rodne razlike u percepciji rizika i pripremljenosti za poplave: studija slučaja Srbije)

The catastrophic flood occurred in Serbia in 2014 was one of the most critical events registered in the Balkan area in the last decades. The procedures for evacuation have been tough to manage indicating a low level of perception and preparedness towards flood events. Also, the failure in the response phase showed a gender unbalance, where information did not reach men and women equally. Urgently, the Council for Gender Equality Government of the Republic of Serbia held an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the flood planning and emergency support in a gendered perspective. It concluded with the necessity of developing more gender-sensitive statistics, indicators of vulnerability, reconstruction and recovery to floods. For these reasons, we conducted an extensive interview to underlined the differences in risk perception and preparedness actions of both women and men regarding flood events in Serbia. 2500 face-to-face interviews have been conducted in 19 out of 150 municipalities being a good representative sample of the country with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research findings indicated that is a gender disparity among men and women both in the perception than in the preparedness actions toward floods. Men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, assessing a greater individual and household preparedness. This could be ascribable to their active involvement in the army where young men were educated to manage emergency situations. They displayed more trust in themselves rather than external agencies or organisation, and this could result in a general mistrust on institutions and planned evacuations. On the other hand, women displayed larger sensitivity and knowledge to these events, however, this did not translate into a capacity to react. It has been assumed that their work as child-carers and housekeepers made them unable to create a strong social network within the community being less informed and involved in the decision-making process. For this purpose, planners might consider how this can affect the way authorities can reach women with hazard information and emergency warnings. However, they should not be seen as sole victims, but valuable resources able to take leading roles in building disaster resilience. In this work they displayed higher organisation of basic supplies and emergency amenities, saving important documents and dealing with the financial matters of the household. This should be taken as an advantage in preparing the family for a possible hazard situation, enlarging their selfconfidence and burdens of responsibilities. Demographic and economic attributes, behaviours and beliefs reflect gender power relations in the flood hazard context in Serbia. Failing to recognise it, may lead to inefficient community-based risk management plans. Thus, there is a systematic need to investigate and acknowledge the role of gender dynamics without limiting gender as an isolated variable. This work will contribute raising further investigations on this topic especially in a country like Serbia where this topic was weakly investigated. Katastrofalna poplava koja se dogodila u Srbiji 2014. godine bila je jedan od najkritičnijih događaja registrovanih na Balkanu u poslednjim decenijama. Teško je upravljati postupcima evakuacije, što ukazuje na nizak nivo percepcije i spremnosti za poplavne događaje. Takođe, neuspeh u fazi odgovora pokazao je rodnu neravnotežu, gde informacije nisu jednako dopirale do muškaraca i žena. Hitno je Savet za ravnopravnost polova Republike Srbije održao vanredni sastanak posvećen planiranju poplava i vanrednoj podršci u rodno perspektivnom pogledu. Zaključeno je da je neophodno razviti rodno osetljiviju statistiku, pokazatelje ranjivosti, obnove i oporavka od poplava. Iz ovih razloga, obavili smo opširan intervju kako bismo naglasili razlike u percepciji rizika i pripremljenosti žena i muškaraca u vezi sa poplavama u Srbiji. Obavljeno je 2500 intervjua licem u lice u 19 od 150 opština koje predstavljaju dobar reprezentativni uzorak zemlje uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Nalazi istraživanja ukazali su da postoji rodna razlika među muškarcima i ženama kako u percepciji, tako i u akcijama pripremljenosti za poplave. Činilo se da su muškarci sigurniji u svoje sposobnosti da se izbore sa poplavama, procenjujući veću individualnu spremnost i spremnost domaćinstva. To se može pripisati njihovom aktivnom učešću u vojsci gde su mladići obrazovani za upravljanje vanrednim situacijama. Pokazali su više poverenja u sebe nego u spoljne agencije ili organizacije, a to bi moglo rezultirati opštim nepoverenjem u institucije i planiranu evakuaciju. S druge strane, žene su pokazale veću osetljivost i znanje na ove događaje, međutim, to nije preraslo u sposobnost reagovanja. Pretpostavlja se da im je njihov rad kao negovatelja dece i domaćica onemogućio stvaranje jake socijalne mreže unutar zajednice koja je manje informisana i uključena u proces donošenja odluka. U tu svrhu planeri mogu razmotriti kako ovo može uticati na način na koji vlasti mogu doći do žena s informacijama o opasnostima i upozorenjima za hitne slučajeve. Međutim, na njih ne treba gledati kao na jedine žrtve, već na dragocene resurse koji mogu da preuzmu vodeću ulogu u izgradnji otpornosti na katastrofe. U ovom poslu pokazali su veću organizaciju osnovnih potrepština i hitnih usluga, čuvajući važne dokumente i baveći se finansijskim pitanjima domaćinstva. To bi trebalo uzeti kao prednost u pripremi porodice za moguću opasnu situaciju, povećanju njihovog samopouzdanja i tereta odgovornosti. Demografski i ekonomski atributi, ponašanja i uverenja odražavaju rodne odnose moći u kontekstu opasnosti od poplave u Srbiji. Ako ga ne prepoznaju, može dovesti do neefikasnih planova upravljanja rizikom u zajednici. Dakle, postoji sistematska potreba za istraživanjem i priznavanjem uloge rodne dinamike bez ograničavanja pola kao izolovane promenljive. Ovaj rad će doprineti pokretanju daljih istraga na ovu temu, posebno u zemlji kao što je Srbija, gde je ova tema slabo istražena.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Roder, G., Tarolli, P., Öcal, A., Ronan, K., & Dragićević, S. (2017). Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study. The European Geosciences Union GmbH – EGU General Assembly 2017, At Vienna, Austria, Volume: Vol. 19, EGU2017-6720: Session HS1.9/NH1.18 Hydrological risk under a gender and age perspective, Wiena.

Тhe role of emergency medical service in emergencies caused by terrorism (Uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim terorističkim aktima)

Imajući u vidu zdravstvene posledice upotrebe ovog oružja od strane terorističkih grupa, posebno značajna interventno-spasilačka služba u otklanjanju zdravstvenih posledica nastalih takvim napadom, jeste služba hitne medicinske pomoći, kao i celokupno medicinsko osoblјe. Pored policije i vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica, navedena služba ima klјučnu ulogu u otklanjanju posledica terorističkih vanrednih situacija. Trenutna pojava velikog broja nastradalih lica, otežani uslovi za pronalaženje i pružanje medicinske pomoći, potreba za ograničavanjem boravka lјudi u području koje je kontaminirano itd., umnogome će iskomplikovati rad službe hitne medicinske pomoći koja će se suočiti sa velikim brojem zadataka. Upravo stoga, u radu se analiziraju zadaci i uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u terorističkoj vanrednoj situaciji, sa posebnim osvrtom na trijažu i transport povređenih, kao i pripremu bolnice za prijem povređenih sa lica mesta vanredne situacije. Pored toga, u radu se analizira uloga zdravstvenih službi u otklanjanju zdravstvenih posledica terorističkih vanrednih situacija u Republici Srbiji. Having in mind the health consequences of the use of these weapons by terrorist groups, a particularly important intervention and rescue service in eliminating the health consequences caused by such an attack is the emergency medical service, as well as the entire medical staff. In addition to the police and fire and rescue units, the said service has a key role in eliminating the consequences of terrorist emergencies. The current appearance of a large number of victims, difficult conditions for finding and providing medical care, the need to limit the stay of people in the contaminated area, etc., will greatly complicate the work of the emergency medical service, which will face a large number of tasks. Therefore, the paper analyzes the tasks and role of the emergency medical service in a terrorist emergency, with special emphasis on triage and transport of the injured, as well as the preparation of the hospital for the reception of the injured from the scene of the emergency. In addition, the paper analyzes the role of health services in eliminating the health consequences of terrorist emergencies in the Republic of Serbia.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Aksentijević, V., & Ivović, M. (2015). Uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim terorističkim aktima. Zbornik radova, Suprotstavljanje savremenim oblicima kriminaliteta – analiza stanja, evropski standardi i mere za unapređenje (26-29. maj 2015), Kriminalističko-policijska akademija i Fondacija „Hans Zajdel” u saradnji sa Ministarstvom unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije, 355-367.

Natural disaster risk insurance and reduction (Osiguranje i smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa)

The number of natural disasters is increasing and their consequences are increasingly devastating. In some countries there is a mandatory insurance against natural disasters caused by flooding, while in Serbia this is still in its beginning. Therefore, this paper presents the results of quantitative research of correlation between demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens and property insurance against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. The survey was conducted in 2015 and on that occasion it was randomly selected 19 local communities in which 2,500 persons were interviewed. At the same time, the survey strategy was applied in households using a multi-stage random sample. Results of descriptive statistical analysis indicate that only 8% of respondents have insured their property against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods while 86.6% did not do so. Chi-square test (x2) of independence showed a statistically significant correlation between insurance and demographic characteristics of respondents – gender, age, level of education, success in high school and some socio-economic characteristics – employment, marital status and home distance from the river. On the other hand, there was no statistically significant relationship between insurance and amount of household income. The originality of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical knowledge in the field of reducing the risk of natural disasters. The research results have unambiguous scientific and social importance which is reflected in the abundance of new data that can be used for the purpose of comparison with the results of other studies in the world and designing the strategy of encouraging citizens to insure their property. The presented results represent a segment of a wider research into citizen preparedness to respond to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Key words: security, natural disasters, risk reduction, insurance, citizens, demographic, socio-economic. Apstrakt: Broj prirodnih katastrofa je u porastu i njihove posledice su sve razornije. U pojedinim zemlјama postoji obavezno osiguranje od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom, dok je u Srbiji to još u začetku. Upravo stoga, u radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja povezanosti demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika građana i osiguranja imovine od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine i tom prilikom metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je 19 lokalnih zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana. Pri tome, primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati deskriptivne statističke analize ukazuju da je samo 8% ispitanika osiguralo svoju imovinu od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom dok 86,6% to nije učinilo. Hi kvadrat testom (x2) nezavisnosti utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost osiguranja sa demografskim karakteristikama ispitanika – pol, godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja, uspeh u srednjoj školi i određenim socio-ekonomskim karakteristikama – zaposlenost, bračni status i udalјenost domaćinstva od reke. Sa druge strane, nije utvrđena statistički značajna povezanost osiguranja sa visinom prihoda domaćinstva. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog fonda znanja iz oblasti smanjenja rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja imaju nedvosmislen naučni i društveni značaj koji se ogleda u pružanju obilјa novostvorenih podataka koji se mogu iskoristiti u cilјu komparacije sa rezultatima drugih istraživanja u svetu i koncipiranju strategije podsticanja građana da osiguraju svoju imovinu. Izneti rezultati predstavlјaju jedan segment obimnijeg istraživanja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnoj katastrofi izazvanoj poplavom u Republici Srbiji.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Jakovljević, V., & Stanić, M. (2016). Osiguranje i smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. VII naučno-stručni skup sa međunarodnim učešćem „Evropske integracije: pravda, sloboda i bezbednost“ Kriminalističko-policijska akademija i Fondacija „Hans Zajdel” u saradnji sa Ministarstvom unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije, 24-26. maj 2016. godine Tara, hotel „Omorika“ , 419-441.

Činioci uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji (Factors of impact on the citizens awareness of disaster risks in Serbia)

Svakodnevno, ljudi se susreću sa raznovrsnim bezbednosnim rizicima koji mogu ugroziti njihov život i zdravlje. Svest građana o lokalnim rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija jeste preduslov unapređenja njihove pripremljenosti značajne za ublažavanje posledica. Upravo zato, sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje sa ciljem naučne eksplikacije činioca uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji. Korišćenjem višeetapnog uzorkovanja, anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je samo polovina ispitanika svesna rizika nastanka vanrednih situacija u lokalnoj zajednici. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da na svest građana o rizicima utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, uspeh u osnovnoj školi, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, bračni status, roditeljstvo, briga o invaliditetu, zaposlenost, prihodi domaćinstva, prethodno iskustvo i volonterstvo. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja proizilazi iz neispitanog nivoa svesti građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija i činiocima koji direktno ili indirektno utiču na njen nivo. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za koncipiranje strategija i programa usmerenih ka podizanju svesti građana o lokalnim bezbednosnim rizicima. Every day, people face a variety of security risks that can endanger their lives and health. Citizens’ awareness of local risks of emergencies is a precondition for improving their preparedness, which is important for mitigating the consequences. Precisely because of that, quantitative research was conducted with the aim of scientific explanation of the factors influencing the awareness of citizens about the risks of emergencies in Serbia. Using multi-stage sampling, two and a half thousand citizens from nineteen local communities were surveyed. The results of the research show that only half of the respondents are aware of the risk of emergencies in the local community. In addition, citizens’ awareness of risks was found to be influenced by gender, age, education, primary school achievement, mother’s education, father’s education, marital status, parenthood, disability care, employment, household income, previous experience, and volunteering. The scientific and social significance of the research stems from the unexamined level of citizens’ awareness of the risks of emergencies and the factors that directly or indirectly affect their level. The results of the research can be used to design strategies and programs aimed at raising citizens’ awareness of local security risks.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Jakovljević, V.(2016). Činioci uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija. Zbornik radova, V savetovanje, Upravljanje rizicima, Visoka tehnička škola strukovnih studija, Požarevac, 11-20.

Globalni rizici po zdravlje i odgovor zdravstvenog sistema u vanrednim situacijama (Health risks and response of the health system in emergency situations)

Oblast studija, istraživanja i prakse koja ističe važnost unapređenja zdravlja i dostizanja jednakosti u pristupu zdravstvenoj zaštiti celokupne populacije u svetu, definiše se danas, kao ’’globalno zdravlje’’. Ovaj termin najčešće zamenjuje stariji pojam – ’’međunarodno zdravlje’’ i fokusira se na unapređenje zdravlja širom sveta, smanjenje nejednakosti u mogućnosti pristupa zdravstvenoj zaštiti i zaštiti od globalnih pretnji koje ne poznaju granice. Kada se govori o planiranju, rukovođenju i koordinaciji globalnih zdravstvenih inicijativa kao odgovora na ove pretnje, Svetska zdravstvena organizacija (WHO) ovde igra najvažniju ulogu. Pored nje, važnu ulogu imaju i UNICEF, Svetski program za hranu i Svetska banka. Bezbednost javnog zdravlja obuhvata aktivnosti, kako proaktivne tako i reaktivne, neophodne za smanjenje ranjivosti na događaje koji izlažu riziku kolektivno zdravlje stanovništva širom sveta, a nedostatak iste na globalnom nivou ima negativan uticaj na sve aspekte društva. Nove globalne zdravstvene pretnje u 21. veku su pandemije zaraznih bolesti, bioterorizam, biološko i hemijsko oružje, bolesti prenosive hranom, prirodne katastrofe, hemijski ili radio-nuklearni incidenti kao i zdravstvene posledice ratova, konfikata, klimatskih promena i migracija tokom poslednje decenije. Vanredne situacije često predstavljaju plodno tlo za razvoj epidemija ili pandemija zaraznih bolesti, budući da drastično remete društvenu i ekološku ravnotežu u pogođenim područjima i mogu dovesti do pogoršanja sanitarne i epidemiološke situacije. Odmah po nastupanju vanredne situacije, potrebna je brza procena rizika, praćena definisanjem neophodne dodatne pomoći u vidu osoblja, materijalnih resursa, lekova, bolničkih kapaciteta i prevoznih sredstava i, u krajnjem slučaju traži se i međunarodna pomoć. Zdravstveni problemi koji se najčešće javljaju u vanrednim situacijama su povrede, psihološki problemi izazvani emotivnim stresom, širenje zaraznih bolesti i povećanje broja pacijenata sa endemičnim bolestima koje su već odranije bile prisutne na tom području. U tom periodu, pored zdravstvene zaštite, od velikog je značaja i psihosocijalna podrška građanima. Vanredne situacije zahtevaju posebnu organizaciju sistema zdravstvene zaštite u cilju što bolje zaštite javnog zdravlja. Svi događaji koji potencijalno mogu izazvati ugrožavanje javnog zdravlja na međunarodnom planu (Public health emergency of international concern, PHEIC) obuhvaćeni su Međunarodnim zdravstvenim pravilnikom (International Health Regulations, IHR) koji predstavlja okvir za prevenciju i kontrolu pretnji globalnom zdravlju i koji koordiniše Svetska zdravstvena organizacija (WHO). IHR igra važnu ulogu u globalnoj saradnji koja za cilj ima smanjenje pretnji javnom zdravlju i bezbednosti, i pravno je obavezujući za svih 196 zemalja potpisnica. Globalna mreža za obaveštavanje i odgovor na izbijanje bolesti (Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, GOARN) organizovana je u okviru Svetske zdravstvene organizacije i odgovorna je za monitoring određenih bolesti koje se javljaju po prvi put, ili bolesti koje se iznova javljaju uz veliku mogućnost prelaska u epidemiju. GOARN i WHO zajedno odgovorne su za blagovremeno informisanje populacije o pojavljivanju zaraznih bolesti. Ciljevi IHR trebalo je da budu ispunjeni do 2016., ali je procenjeno da danas tek trećina svih zemalja sveta raspolaže mogućnostima da proceni, identifikuje i odgovori na vanredne situacije u oblasti javnog zdravlja. Globalne preventivne programe pripremaju i vode najbolji svetski stručnjaci u oblasti epidemiologije, nadzora, informatike, menadžmenta, laboratorijskih sistema i drugih relevantnih disciplina. Partnerstva među zemljama i ministarstvima zdravlja vode unapređenju kvaliteta i kvantiteta neophodnih kritičnih struktura javnog zdravlja, boljem globalnom zdravlju i javnoj bezbednosti. The area of study, research and practice that emphasizes the importance of improving health and achieving equity in health care for the entire human population is defined, in modern terms, as ‘’global health’’. For the most part, this term replaced the one previously used – ‘’international health’’ and focuses on worldwide health improvement, reduction of disparities in access to healthcare and protection in the face of global threats that show no regard to national borders. When it comes to planning, leading and coordinating global health initiatives in response to these threats, the World Health Organization (WHO) is the most important international body. Other agencies that stand out are UNICEF, World Food Programme and the World Bank. Public health security encompasses the activities required, both proactive and reactive, to minimize vulnerability to acute public health events that put the collective health of world populations at risk, and lack of global health security has a negative impact on all aspects of society.New global health threats in the 21st century are pandemics of infectious diseases, bioterrorism, biological and chemical weapons, foodborne diseases, natural disasters and chemical or radio nuclear events, as well as the health consequences of wars, conflicts, climate change and migrations during last decade. When it comes to emergency situations, they often foster the development of epidemics or pandemics of infectious diseases as they drastically disturb the social and ecological balance in the affected areas, and can lead to deterioration of sanitary and epidemiological situation. As soon as an emergency occurs, quick risk assessment is necessary, followed by defining the needs for assistance in personnel, material resources, medicines, hospital facilities and transportation means, and, if necessary, international assistance is requested. The most common health problems in emergencies are injuries, emotional stress, infectious disease outbreaks and an increase in the number of patients with endemic diseases already present.At this time, in addition to healthcare, psychosocial support to citizens is of great importance. In general, emergency situations require special organizations of health protection systems for public health protection. All events that might potentially become a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) are covered by the International Health Regulations (IHR) which represent a framework for prevention and control of global health threats, coordinated by the WHO. The IHR plays an important role in global collaboration to mitigate threats to public health and public security and are legally binding for all 196 parties to the agreement. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is organized within WHO, and is responsible for the monitoring of specific diseases which appear for the first time (emerging diseases) or reoccurring diseases with a large epidemic potential (reemerging diseases). GOARN together with WHO are responsible for timely informing of the population about the occurrence of infectious diseases. The IHR goals should have been met until 2016, but it is estimated that only about a third of all the countries in the world currently possess the ability to assess, detect and respond to public health emergencies. Fortunately, global programs are prepared and run by world leaders in epidemiology, surveillance, informatics, management, laboratory systems, and other essential disciplines. Partnerships between countries and ministries of health lead to improved quantity and quality of critical public health services, better global health, and public security.

Referenca – Babić, J.S., Gačić, J., Nikolić, M., Cvetković, V., Rašeta, D. (2017). Globalni rizici po zdravlje i odgovor zdravstvenog sistema u vanrednim situacijama. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 39-40.

Environmental and social management framework (ESMF) for fostering environmental protection and security in Drina river basin riparian countries (Okvir ekološkog i socijalnog upravljanja (ESMF) za podsticanje zaštite i bezbednosti životne sredine u priobalnim zemljama sliva reke Drine)

The transboundary nature of the Environmental issues is recognized as a fact, as in Science, so in practice and in politics. On a global level efforts are being made towards making the Communities resilient on Natural Hazards and Catastrophes that arises from them. This is most due of the fact that the Political borders between states are absolutely irrelevant for the Geography and the Natural processes that happens on Earth. One of the most challenging processes that the Human race is facing is the Climate change issue. Also, the level of drinking water, and most of all, the Water management which is being divvied between two or more states is one of the most common mentioned argument towards the understanding of the Environmental Security Doctrine. Thus, meaning that the access to drinking water especially as a result of water management of another Country could be a reason even for war. That is why this paper tries to answer some of the questions that arises from the fostered international waterway management between three Countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB), through the West Balkans Drina River Basin Management (WBDRBM) actions. These countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB) undoubtedly must strengthen the capacity to plan and implement integrated, cooperative management of the trans-boundary Drina River Basin (DRB) and address climate change adaptation throughout the DRB – based on “global best practices” and within the framework of integrated water resource management (IWRM) involving extensive stakeholder consultations to ensure adequate public participation. The two main questions that this paper is trying to answer are: – The need for Multi-state cooperation to balance conflicting water uses in trans-boundary Drina waters is enhanced, while climate adaptation measures in policy and planning frameworks is mainstreamed. – A shared vision and technical cooperation frameworks agreed with sustainable financing identified, including a strategic action plan for more sustainable and balanced investments, including identified investments that would be the subject of the GEF Drina follow-up actions. Prekogranična priroda pitanja zaštite životne sredine prepoznata je kao činjenica, kako u nauci, tako i u praksi i u politici. Na globalnom nivou se ulažu napori da se zajednice stvore otpornim na prirodne opasnosti i katastrofe koje iz njih proizilaze. To je najviše zbog činjenice da su političke granice između država apsolutno irelevantne za geografiju i prirodne procese koji se dešavaju na Zemlji. Jedan od najizazovnijih procesa sa kojim se suočava ljudska rasa je pitanje klimatskih promena. Takođe, nivo pijaće vode, i najviše od svega, upravljanje vodama koje se deli između dve ili više država jedan je od najčešće spominjanih argumenata ka razumevanju doktrine zaštite životne sredine. Dakle, što znači da bi pristup pijaćoj vodi, posebno kao rezultat upravljanja vodama druge države, mogao biti razlog čak i za rat. Zbog toga ovaj rad pokušava da odgovori na neka od pitanja koja proizlaze iz negovanog upravljanja međunarodnim plovnim putevima između tri zemlje – Bosne i Hercegovine (BiH), Crne Gore (CG) i Srbije (SRB), kroz upravljanje slivom reke Drine sa zapadnog Balkana ( VBDRBM) akcije. Ove države, Bosna i Hercegovina (BiH), Crna Gora (CG) i Srbija (SRB) nesumnjivo moraju ojačati kapacitet za planiranje i sprovođenje integrisanog, kooperativnog upravljanja prekograničnim slivom reke Drine (DRB) i bavljenja prilagođavanjem na klimatske promene tokom čitavog perioda. DRB – zasnovan na „najboljim svetskim praksama“ i u okviru integrisanog upravljanja vodnim resursima (IVRM) koji uključuje opsežne konsultacije sa zainteresovanim stranama kako bi se osiguralo adekvatno učešće javnosti. Dva glavna pitanja na koja ovaj rad pokušava da odgovori su: – Potreba za međudržavnom saradnjom na uravnoteženju konfliktnih upotreba vode u prekograničnim vodama Drine je pojačana, dok su mjere prilagođavanja klime u okvirima politike i planiranja integrirane. – Identifikovani zajednička vizija i okviri tehničke saradnje sa utvrđenim održivim finansiranjem, uključujući strateški akcioni plan za održivije i uravnoteženije investicije, uključujući identifikovane investicije koje će biti predmet sledećih aktivnosti GEF-a Drina.

Referenca – Sudar, S., Aleksandar, I., & Cvetković, V. (2016). Environmental and social management framework (esmf) for fostering environmental protection and security in Drina river basin riparian countries. 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime, At Macedonia, Skopje, Faculty of Security.

Theoretical foundations related to natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens – establishing proposal variables (Teorijske osnove povezane sa prirodnim katastrofama i merenje otpornosti zajednica pre nego što se katastrofe dogode – uspostavljanje promenljiva)

Design/methodology/approach: The paper seeks to answer to the fundamental question about the Natural disasters and their unimpeded existence no matter the preferences of Man, their characteristics, some theoretical observations about the consequences from the Natural disasters, the suitable models for Natural Disaster Management, and, in the end, the Model for measuring the Resilience of the Community according to the place is presented. The paper is divided into 6 parts: 1. Introduction that observes the basic theoretical ground for the material in the paper. Then comes the four major parts: 2. About Natural disasters; 3. Consequences from Natural disasters; 4. Natural disasters Management; 5. Some considerations about determination on the Variables for measuring the resilience based on the location; 6. The model for measuring the resilience according to place; and 5. Final observations and recommendations. The paper is based on qualitative approach. Namely, based on Literature review the Authors had made the overview of the theoretical findings related to the basic questions and the conceptual determination of the meaning on Natural disasters, the consequences that they made, their management, and the proposed variables for measuring the resilience based on cited model, but also express their own concrete suggestions for amending this model. Findings: Scientific review of the knowledge related to Natural disasters and the proposal of an amended model for determining variables for measuring resilience of the communities according to place. Research limitations/implications: The presented model for determination of the resilience of the communities according to place should be implemented designing a questionnaire and a conducted survey. Not having practical data in this manner represents research limitation. However, this proposal should open a debate in order to formulate model that will be the most applicable in the contemporary societies (at least on regional level). Dizajn / metodologija / pristup: Rad želi da odgovori na osnovno pitanje o prirodnim katastrofama i njihovom nesmetanom postojanju bez obzira na preferencije čoveka, njihove karakteristike, neka teorijska zapažanja o posledicama prirodnih katastrofa, pogodne modele za prirodne katastrofe Upravljanje i, na kraju, predstavljen je model za merenje otpornosti zajednice prema mestu. Rad je podeljen u 6 delova: 1. Uvod koji uvažava osnovni teorijski osnov za gradivo u radu. Zatim dolaze četiri glavna dela: 2. O prirodnim katastrofama; 3. Posledice prirodnih katastrofa; 4. Upravljanje prirodnim katastrofama; 5. Neka razmatranja o određivanju promenljivih za merenje elastičnosti na osnovu lokacije; 6. Model za merenje elastičnosti prema mestu; i 5. Završna zapažanja i preporuke. Rad je zasnovan na kvalitativnom pristupu. Naime, na osnovu pregleda literature, autori su napravili pregled teorijskih nalaza u vezi sa osnovnim pitanjima i konceptualnim određivanjem značenja prirodnih katastrofa, posledica koje su donele, njihovog upravljanja i predloženih promenljivih za merenje otpornosti na osnovu na navedenom modelu, ali takođe izražavaju sopstvene konkretne predloge za izmenu ovog modela. Nalazi: Naučni pregled znanja u vezi sa prirodnim katastrofama i predlog izmenjenog modela za određivanje promenljivih za merenje otpornosti zajednica prema mestu. Ograničenja / implikacije istraživanja: Predstavljeni model za određivanje otpornosti zajednica prema mestu treba primeniti dizajniranjem upitnika i sprovedenom anketom. Nepostojanje praktičnih podataka na ovaj način predstavlja ograničenje istraživanja. Međutim, ovaj predlog bi trebao otvoriti raspravu kako bi se formulisao model koji će biti najprimenljiviji u savremenim društvima (barem na regionalnom nivou).

Referenca – Aleksandar, I., Cvetković, V. & Sudar, S. (2016). Theoretical foundations related to natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens – establishing proposal variables. 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime, At Macedonia, Skopje, Faculty of Security, 79-89.

The role of police in achieving security on the Danube as international waterways in Serbia (Uloga policije u postizanju bezbednosti na Dunavu kao međunarodnom plovnom putu u Srbiji)

Danube as an international navigable river in Serbia and water main roads of central and southeastern Europe, despite all of its advantages it contains one of the kind of components suitable for performing criminal activities (general, economic and organized crime and terrorism). Also, it can happen flooding, traffic accidents, fires and accidents that require the involvement of specially trained first responders. In addition, the specificity of the police work aimed at achieving security of the Danube, directly contributed to the development of police organization and in this segment. It is, therefore, a separate organizational unit of Serbian police such as river police, border police, gendarmerie specialized units (divers) and fire-rescue units with fire boats, trained and equipped in order to take preventive and repressive measures and actions in order to preserve security on the Danube and the actions of protection and rescue of people, material and cultural resources and the environment. Considering the international, cross-border, security-protective, water management, transport, tourism, sports and recreation, hunting and other issues on the river Danube, the authors present the possibility of an integrated security management at international navigable rivers. Specifically, the paper introduced the modern concept of the security management of the overall creative and destructive anthropogenic and natural phenomena and processes that are manifested in the international waterway (river) road, and are related to the joint efforts of police, customs, inspection services, port authorities, emergency medical, army, line ministries and other state agencies, water management companies, local authorities, social organizations and citizens. Dunav kao međunarodna plovna reka u Srbiji i magistralni putevi centralne i jugoistočne Evrope, uprkos svim svojim prednostima, sadrži jednu od vrsta komponenata pogodnih za obavljanje kriminalnih radnji (opšti, ekonomski i organizovani kriminal i terorizam). Takođe, može se dogoditi poplava, saobraćajne nezgode, požari i nezgode koje zahtevaju uključivanje posebno obučenih osoba za pružanje prve pomoći. Pored toga, specifičnost policijskog rada usmerenog na postizanje bezbednosti Dunava, direktno je doprinela razvoju policijske organizacije i u ovom segmentu. Stoga je to posebna organizaciona jedinica srpske policije kao što su rečna policija, granična policija, žandarmerijske specijalizovane jedinice (ronioci) i vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice sa vatrogasnim čamcima, obučene i opremljene za preduzimanje preventivnih i represivnih mera i radnji u cilju da se očuva bezbednost na Dunavu i akcije zaštite i spasavanja ljudi, materijalnih i kulturnih resursa i životne sredine. Uzimajući u obzir međunarodna, prekogranična, bezbednosno-zaštitna, vodoprivredna, transportna, turistička, sportsko-rekreaciona, lovna i druga pitanja na reci Dunav, autori predstavljaju mogućnost integrisanog upravljanja bezbednošću na međunarodnim plovnim rekama. Konkretno, rad je predstavio savremeni koncept upravljanja bezbednošću ukupnih kreativnih i destruktivnih antropogenih i prirodnih pojava i procesa koji se manifestuju na međunarodnom plovnom (rečnom) putu, a povezani su sa zajedničkim naporima policije, carine, inspekcijskih službi , lučke vlasti, hitne medicinske usluge, vojska, resorna ministarstva i druge državne agencije, vodoprivredne kompanije, lokalne vlasti, društvene organizacije i građani.

Referenca – Cvetković, V., Milijković, B., Mlađan, D. & Miladinović, S. (2014). The role of police in achieving security on the Danube as international waterways in Serbia. The third Romanian-Bulgarian-Hungarian-Serbian conference geographical research and cross-border cooperation within the lower basin of the Danube, 42-47.

Individual citizens’ resilience to disasters caused by floods: a case study of Belgrade (Individualna otpornost građana na katastrofe izazvane poplavama: studija slučaja Beograda)

Due to the increasing frequency and variety of disasters caused by floods and their effect on people, environment, material, and cultural goods, there is an unavoidable need to improve the security of citizens through innovative solutions to improve Serbian citizens’ resilience to such disasters. The subject of the research is a comprehensive examination of the levels and factors that affect the level of individual resilience of the citizens of the city of Belgrade to the consequences of disasters caused by floods. By applying the quantitative research tradition, citizens’ attitudes about their level of resilience and the level of resilience of society were examined. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was requested and collected online among 377 respondents during May 2020. The research results show that there are relationships between the diversity of characteristics, experiences, and levels of education with the level of individual resilience of citizens to flood disasters. The implications of the research related to the creation of preconditions for the design and implementation of various programs, strategies, and campaigns that will improve the situation in the aforementioned area. Zbog sve veće učestalosti i raznolikosti katastrofa izazvanih poplavama i njihovog uticaja na ljude, životnu sredinu, materijalna i kulturna dobra, neizbežna je potreba za poboljšanjem bezbednosti građana putem inovativnih rešenja za poboljšanje otpornosti građana Srbije na takve katastrofe. Predmet istraživanja je sveobuhvatno ispitivanje nivoa i faktora koji utiču na nivo individualne otpornosti građana grada Beograda na posledice katastrofa izazvanih poplavama. Primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije ispitani su stavovi građana o njihovom stepenu otpornosti i stepenu otpornosti društva. Istraživanje je sprovedeno pomoću upitnika koji je zatražen i prikupljen na mreži među 377 ispitanika tokom maja 2020. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da postoje veze između raznolikosti karakteristika, iskustava i nivoa obrazovanja sa nivoom individualne otpornosti građana na poplave katastrofe. Implikacije istraživanja povezane su sa stvaranjem preduslova za dizajn i sprovođenje različitih programa, strategija i kampanja koje će poboljšati situaciju u pomenutoj oblasti.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Bošković, N. (2014). Individual citizens’ resilience to disasters caused by floods: a case study of Belgrade. The 5th International Symposium on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management (ISHAD2021)At: Turkey, Sakarya between 24-26 September 2021.

Ispitivanje znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme prirodnih katastrofa – Research into students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting during disasters

Bezbednost omladine nakon posledica prirodnih katastrofa direktno je uslovljena njihovim poznavanjem načina postupanja u takvim situacijama. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu predstavljaju rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje statistički značajnog uticaja određenih personalnih i sredinskih faktora na nivo znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja. U realizaciji istraživanja korišćeno je anketno ispitivanje zasnovano na višeetapnom slučajnom uzorkovanju kako bi se obezbedila odgovarajuća reprezentativnost. Ukupno je anketirano oko 3548 učenika iz osamnaest osnovnih i srednjih škola sa područja Beograda. Prema dobijenim rezultatima istraživanja, utvrđeno je da bi 42,9% ispitanika pravilno postupilo za vreme zemljotresa, 77,9% za vreme poplava, 69,2% za vreme klizišta, 92,9% za vreme suše, 90,2% za vreme cunamija, 80,2% za vreme jakih vetrova, 57% za vreme šumskih požara, i 68,8% za vreme epidemija. Pored toga, utvrđeni su različiti uticaji personalnih i sredinskih faktora na pravilnost postupanja za svaku od spomenutih prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje bezbednosti omladine za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. The safety of youth against the consequences of natural disasters is directly conditioned by their knowledge of the way of acting in such situations. Accordingly, the authors present the results of quantitative research of students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting during natural disasters. The aim of the research is to examine the statistically significant influence of certain personal and environmental factors on the level of students’ knowledge of the proper way of acting. The research included a survey based on multipoint random sampling in order to ensure adequate representativity. A total of 3548 students from 18 primary and secondary schools from Belgrade were interviewed. According to the obtained results of the survey, 42.9% of the respondents would properly act during earthquakes, 77.9% during floods, 69.2% during landslides, 92.9% during droughts, 90.2% during tsunami, 80.2% during heavy winds, 57% during forest fires, and 68.8% during epidemics. In addition, there are various influences of personal and environmental factors on the properness of acting for each of the mentioned natural disasters. The research results can be used to improve the safety of youth during natural disasters.

Referenca – Cvetković, M., Filipović, B. (2017). Ispitivanje znanja učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme prirodnih katastrofa, Bezbjednost, policija, građani, 13(2), 105–120.

Examining the Impact of Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors on the Level of Employee Preparedness for a Disaster Caused by Fires: A Case Study of Electrical Power Distribution in Serbia (Ispitivanje uticaja demografskih i socio-ekonomskih faktora na nivo spremnosti zaposlenih za katastrofu izazvanu požarima: Studija slučaja distribucije električne energije u Srbiji)

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the examination of the levels of efficiency of the fire protection system and the training of employees in Electrical power distribution of Serbia for fire protection, ie the analysis of the manner of implementation of fire protection measures, and determining whether these measures are adequately applied. Following the subject set in this way, the aim of the research was set, and that is the scientific analysis of the manner of application of fire protection measures. The results of this research showed that the employees of Electro distribution Belgrade perceive the preparedness of their company highly positively and certain socio-demographic characteristics also affect certain attitudes, especially those related to the experience with fire, the knowledge of employees to react in case of fire, and the choice of the appropriate response, assessment of the readiness of the company and the employees themselves. It was found that knowledge of how to react in case of fire is influenced by gender and level of education; the choice of one of the methods of action in case of fire is influenced by gender; the assessment of the readiness of the employees themselves is influenced by the marital status; the desire of employees to participate in training to increase their preparedness for fires is influenced by gender. The results of the research can be used to improve the preparedness of employees in various organizations to respond to disasters caused by fires. U ovom radu su predstavljeni rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja u vezi sa ispitivanjem nivoa efikasnosti sistema zaštite od požara i obukom zaposlenih u Elektrodistribuciji Srbije za zaštitu od požara, odnosno analizom načina sprovođenja mera zaštite od požara, i utvrđivanje da li se ove mere primenjuju na odgovarajući način. Prateći ovako postavljenu temu postavljen je cilj istraživanja, a to je naučna analiza načina primene mera zaštite od požara. Rezultati ovog istraživanja pokazali su da zaposleni u Elektro distribuciji Beograd spremnost svoje kompanije doživljavaju izuzetno pozitivno, a određene socio-demografske karakteristike utiču i na određene stavove, posebno one koji se odnose na iskustvo sa vatrom, znanje zaposlenih da reaguju u slučaju požar, i izbor odgovarajućeg odgovora, procena spremnosti preduzeća i samih zaposlenih. Utvrđeno je da na znanje o tome kako reagovati u slučaju požara utiču pol i nivo obrazovanja; na izbor jedne od metoda delovanja u slučaju požara utiče pol; na procenu spremnosti samih zaposlenih utiče bračni status; na želju zaposlenih da učestvuju u obuci za povećanje spremnosti za požar utiče pol. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti za poboljšanje spremnosti zaposlenih u raznim organizacijama da odgovore na katastrofe izazvane požarima.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Marković, K. (2021). Examining the Impact of Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors on the Level of Employee Preparedness for a Disaster Caused by Fires: A Case Study of Electrical Power Distribution in Serbia. 12th International Scientific Conference of the Faculty of Security -Skopje.

The impact of age on flood preparedness in Serbia (Uticaj godina starosti na pripremljenost za reagovanje u Srbiji)

The aim of the study was to examine the effect of age on the preparedness of Serbian citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the country. Taking all Serbia’s municipalities into account in which a risk of flooding persists, nineteen of them were selected randomly for the research in which, using a multi-stage random sample survey, 2.500 citizens in areas/households that are more vulnerable in relation to the hundred-year high waters or potential risk were interviewed. The research results indicated that there was a statistically significant correlation between the age of respondents and a number of variables associated with the preparedness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster. The research originality lies in the fact that in Serbia the research of examining the state of citizens’ preparedness to respond to a disaster has never been conducted. The results can be used to create a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond to sudden environmental changes. The research indicated the way of Serbian citizens’ response with regard to their ages in order to raise the preparedness to a higher level. Keywords: Natural Disasters, Flood Preparedness, Citizen Preparedness, Age, Citizens, Serbia. Cilj studije bio je ispitivanje uticaja starosti na spremnost građana Srbije da odgovore na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u zemlji. Uzimajući u obzir sve srpske opštine u kojima i dalje postoji rizik od poplave, njih devetnaest je slučajno odabrano za istraživanje u kojem je, pomoću višefaznog slučajnog uzorka, 2.500 građana u područjima / domaćinstvima koja su ranjivija u odnosu na potencijalni rizik. Rezultati istraživanja ukazali su na postojanje statistički značajne korelacije između starosti ispitanika i brojnih promenljivih povezanih sa spremnošću građana da odgovore na prirodnu katastrofu. Originalnost istraživanja leži u činjenici da u Srbiji nikada nije sprovedeno istraživanje ispitivanja stanja spremnosti građana za odgovor na katastrofu. Rezultati se mogu koristiti za stvaranje strategije za poboljšanje nivoa spremnosti građana da odgovore na nagle promene životne sredine. Istraživanje je ukazalo na način reagovanja građana Srbije u odnosu na njihov uzrast kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: Prirodne katastrofe, spremnost za poplavu, pripremljenost građana, starost, građani, Srbija.

Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Milašinović, S. & Gostimirović, L. (2016). The impact of age on flood preparedness in Serbia. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science 6(10), 1-15.