međunarodni naučno-istraživački projekti

A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences

The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience. Keywords: disaster, community resilience, social identity, predictive model, factors.

The project’s main aim is to develop and validate a predictive model of CDR based on SI influences through an investigation impact of SI indicators on the CDR in RS. The project is based on the following research question, what is the level of CDR in Serbia; whether the level of CDR can be predicted based on SI indicators, how do SI indicator affects the dimensions of CDR and are there a transformation (changes) of SI in the conditions of disasters. Thus, the scientific aim is to explain the impact of selected indicators of SI on building CDR. On the other hand, the social aim of the research is to develop an index of CDR in RS, which will enable the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience or reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and improvement of citizens security.
So far, the level of CDR has not been entirely determined in RS and influences on its construction have not been examined. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement, intending to reduce disasters’ future material and intangible consequences. Keeping in mind the increase of disasters in Serbia due to increasingly pronounced climate changes and insufficient research and development of society’s resilience to disasters and investments in its development, it can be pointed out that the realisation of the project is significant. Regarding timeliness, it can be said that it is necessary to implement a project as soon as possible based on which to propose concrete measures to improve society’s resilience to disasters, bearing in mind the assessment of future disasters that could affect our area and cause severe consequences for people and their property. Based on the project, clear ones will be developed public policies, strategies, programs and campaigns to improve CDR in the context of different social identities and create preconditions for designing information systems to support local communities to enhance the level of CDR.

Achieving the envisaged goal of the research is based on the comprehensive implementation of quantitative and qualitative research that will enable the creation of public policy and recommendations for improving the current situation in CDR. The research results help many identified shortcomings that have already been mentioned. The development of the model will enable the development of analytical frameworks of CDR based on SI, and improve human security, reducing the future direct and indirect damage from disasters. Public policy and recommendations will be created based on the developed model to strengthen CDR and compare it with other developed countries. A developed predictive model with an index of CDR in RS will create preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving CDR. The novelty of this project is grounded in the fact that the results obtained from the research will represent a real new treasury of data that will be of strategic and operational importance for the advancement of the scientific and practical sphere of CDR.

The project’s general objective is to develop and validate the predictive model of CDR based on SI influences through an investigation impact of SI indicators on CDR in RS. The particular objectives of the Project can be summarized as follows: a) development of the analytical frameworks of CDR and SI in disasters: problem identification, characteristics and conceptualization of the concepts; b) identification of gaps in existing analytical frameworks, procedures and techniques for identification and selection of dimensions and indicators; c) development of tools (questionnaires) for assessing CDR and SI in disasters; d) pre-model exploration, statistical distributions, identification and selection of dimensions and indicators from developed adaptive CDR framework and SI framework relevant to the predictive model; e) establish the hypothesis and build the test model, matrix of possible impacts of SI indicators on CDR; f) electing the correct predictive modelling technique, determine whether parametric or nonparametric predictive modelling is the most effective; g) developed research schedule, sampling frame, sample size and selection procedures, design of the survey instruments; pretested the survey instrument and selected and training interviewers; h) implemented the quantitative and qualitative survey, field research, coded the completed questionnaires and computerised the data, developed the interview guide; i) analyzed and presented quantitative and qualitative survey results of the predictive model of CDR based on SI Influences; j) development of public policy CDR based on SI influences in RS with recommendations for improving the level of CDR.

Despite the efforts made to improve society’s preparedness in Serbia for disasters, it cannot be said that the internationally recommended level of disaster resistance has been achieved. Therefore, it is tough to achieve the optimal level of sustainable development due to the increasing devastating consequences of disasters in Serbia. Developing a predictive model of CDR based on SI will create preconditions for reducing the consequences of disasters in 40% of local communities in which the research is conducted. In addition, MODERSI will enable the improvement of Disaster Risk Assessments and Protection and Rescue Plan in 30 local communities based on the new research results. At the same time, the remaining ten will influence the development of such planning documentation. Implementing recommendations for improving resilience will reduce disasters’ direct and indirect consequences by about 45%. Indirectly, the project results will affect the improvement of resilience and the remaining 60% of local communities that were not covered by the survey by organising the dissemination of recommendations for improving resilience with the support of the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities. The goals are achievable, considering that the leader and team members are experts in their fields, have experience in disaster research, and achieve significant cooperation with local self-government and relevant ministries. The team has the support of the RS Emergency Situations Department and their experts (verbal consent was received, and a letter of support can be provided). The goals are relevant, given the disasters that have occurred in Serbia in the past (earthquake 2010; floods 2014; Kovid-19, etc.), assumed but not met international obligations (Hyogo, Sendai, UNISDR) to improve society’s resilience to disasters, and to implement further projects of the World Bank LID. The project envisages continuous monitoring of each work package (created contingency plan) to react promptly in case of certain deviations.

Direct Project beneficiaries are local communities in RS that, based on the developed public policy, will be able to improve and strengthen their level of resilience to disasters based on the effects of SI; political key stakeholders who will gain insight into the need to enhance and implement disaster risk reduction measures; then, the RS Sector for Emergency Situations, which will receive all relevant information on the current situation on the level of DR in RS, as well as recommendations; scientific-professional and academic communities (faculties and institutes) which have accredited study programs in the field of DRM (Faculty of Security, CPU, Military Academy, etc.) and which will benefit from the theoretical and empirical fund of knowledge; IT firms that will develop new goods or improve current ones regarding Project results. Indirect Project beneficiaries are the end-users such as citizens who, based on the recommendations, will be able to improve their resilience and reduce the future consequences of disasters; intervention and rescue services (police, fire and rescue units and emergency medical services) which will be easier to act in social environments with a higher degree of resilience and other legal entities (educational institutions, healthcare facilities, government or private institutions, media, etc.).

In the short-term perspective, the Project will enable CDR prediction based on SI indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses — rather than waiting for a disaster to occur and then paying for it. From a long-term perspective, it should be borne in mind that climate change is increasingly affecting the frequency and consequences of disasters and that society will face even more severe disasters in the future. The project will enable communities and households better understand and increase their ability to deal with, survive, and recover from disasters by assessing and strengthening DR. The practice has shown that any society that based its security policy on disaster management on science-based facts and principles could significantly mitigate or recover from the consequences of disasters. Modern societies invest considerable funds in scientific research of CDR, to create scientific and social preconditions for mitigating future damages and losses. The project results will enable further development of scientific and empirical knowledge in disaster and future studies. They will be the starting point for further elaboration and development of predictive models.
Project implementation is divided into the following seven work packages (also listed in Table 3.2a): WP1: Project preparations and management, WP2: Development of CDR framework, WP3: Development of SI in disasters framework, WP4: Development of predictive model CDR based on SI factors influence, WP5: Quantitative research on SI impact on building CDR, WP6: Qualitative research on the SI impact on building CDR, WP7: Policy innovations for enhancing CDR from SI perspective and WP8: Dissemination. Project preparations and management (WP1) will be established to develop and prepare detailed implementation, quality control, research coordination, management communication and dissemination, administrative and financial reports, etc. WP2 aims to develop the CDR framework, and WP3 aims to develop the SI framework. The next WP4, based on WP2 and WP3, will be developed as a predictive model of the influence of SI factors on CDR. Based on WP4, quantitative research on SI impact on building social resilience will be implemented WP5 – quantitative research on SI impact on building social resilience. After that, based on WP4 and WP5 will be implemented WP6 – Qualitative research of SI impact on building social resilience. Based on WP5 and WP6 will be implemented WP7. Also, WP8 will disseminate the Project research results. A detailed work description follows, including a list of work packages (WP).