Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of conflict monitoring within early warning systems in Ethiopia, focusing on Ataye town in the North Shewa Administrative Zone. A mixed-methods approach with a sequential exploratory design was employed. Data were collected through key informant interviews with 20 stakeholders, surveys from 385 respondents (253 males and 127 females), focus groups, and document reviews. Qualitative data were analysed thematically, while quantitative data were examined using descriptive and inferential statistics. Key findings highlight the significant roles of institutional actors, including peace councils, peace clubs, interfaith councils, and community monitors, in fostering grassroots conflict awareness and vigilance. However, a critical gap was identified in the uniformity of conflict indicators, as 44 indicators from the Minister of Peace varied from those used by the police and disaster management, undermining coherent monitoring efforts. Recommendations include strengthening the capacities of monitoring institutions, standardising conflict indicators for consistency, and establishing conflict early warning curricula in higher education to train qualified personnel. These measures aim to enhance Ethiopia’s conflict monitoring and prevention strategies, effectively addressing the complexities of inter-ethnic conflicts.

Ayalew, N. . A., & Lema, A. T. (2025). Conflict Risk Monitoring for Conflict Prevention in Ethiopia: The Case of Ataye Towen, North Shewa, Amhara Region. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 177–202. https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.1.10